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Staying In My Lane - A Read-Only Journ(al/ey)

  • #61
  • Jan 28, 2019 11:29am Jan 28, 2019 11:29am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Actually I saw this post this morning, thought of print this of, and say to myself 100000000times, yeah but too to late realize now!!!
yeah man. I have been a king in giving up my floating and realized profits just for the sake of growing my account. There is a reason why I hate MoveSLToBE. If entries are razor sharp with decent %entry expectancy, there is no need to use BE. Just take the damn profit. I also do (and did) feel a lot "guilty" with the concept of free money because I was raised thinking with the mindset of "there is no replacement for hard work". Need to get rid of that shit also and focus only on grabbing "quick and free money" lol

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} yeah man. I have been a king in giving up my floating and realized profits just for the sake of growing my account. There is a reason why I hate MoveSLToBE. If entries are razor sharp with decent %entry expectancy, there is no need to use BE. Just take the damn profit. I also do (and did) feel a lot "guilty" with the concept of free money because I was raised thinking with the mindset of "there is no replacement for hard work". Need to get rid of that shit also and focus only on grabbing "quick and free money" lol
and while I type, I just let 100 ticks go to breakeven today... as an example. I hate this shit... even in demo!
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Staying in my lane...
  • #62
  • Jan 28, 2019 12:38pm Jan 28, 2019 12:38pm
hmm... is also good to consider

EDIT: but later on. For now, stay focused on one thing. If the universality principle is applicable to markets, one setup should work on all instruments. Keep an eye on eliminating the knowledge I have gained from my curve-fitting exercise to avoid getting caught up with something too specific to NQ. This is the key part of my research... learn, observe and then take a step back and look at a 1000 foot level across the overall landscape.

Reminder: Keep focus on the immediate objective and bigger picture will fit right in using proven set of principles from my past experience.
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  • #63
  • Edited 1:06pm Jan 28, 2019 12:47pm | Edited 1:06pm
Today's results:
NQ=121T + 1 BE that went to 100+T in profit
ES=26T
EM=97T

Reminder: Contain the excitement. Focus on the methodology (adherence to universal market structure) and not the outcome. Validate the understanding I have gained every step of the way and narrow the focus to what always works... high probability setups is the only game to play in this business. Brief DD, per trade RR, etc are just surrounding elements to watch for. They are not the main essential elements to factor into entries and exits.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #64
  • Jan 28, 2019 12:56pm Jan 28, 2019 12:56pm
Quoting VEEFX
hmm... is also good to consider EDIT: but later on. For now, stay focused on one thing. If the universality principle is applicable to markets, one setup should work on all instruments. Keep an eye on eliminating the knowledge I have gained from my curve-fitting exercise to avoid getting caught up with something too specific to NQ. This is the key part of my research... learn, observe and then take a step back and look at a 1000 foot level across the overall landscape. Reminder: Keep focus on the immediate objective and bigger picture will fit right...
how about pigs and cows? some still have pits open! maybe you can find edge by being a member and reading those faces


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  • #65
  • Jan 28, 2019 12:58pm Jan 28, 2019 12:58pm
Acknowledgement/Confirmation:

My principle understanding of

"Do what Markets HAS to do to survive"

applies to market-making function in Futures also. This is quite encouraging to know the universal approach signature exists in all price vs. time series across any tradable instrument. I am loving to finally see my research come to fruition. Theoretical Research is fine but I am not in this to write a book and become famous. Goal is the make a LOT of Benjamins!
Staying in my lane...
  • #66
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:06pm Jan 28, 2019 1:06pm
hmmm... even Russell worked well today.
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  • #67
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:07pm Jan 28, 2019 1:07pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} how about pigs and cows? some still have pits open! maybe you can find edge by being a member and reading those faces {image}
lol

I only have data feed for CME... trying to see what else I can test today :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #68
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:17pm Jan 28, 2019 1:17pm
all these programs running..next thing you know..

"veefx's futures "EA", make thousands of dollars a day..for just $40/month! limited time only"

haha..j/k
  • #69
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:35pm Jan 28, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting hilmy83
all these programs running..next thing you know.. "veefx's futures "EA", make thousands of dollars a day..for just $40/month! limited time only" haha..j/k
I dont think selling robots is even allowed in regulated futures without some exams and certifications.

I do desire to disappear when I start live. The addiction of forums is something I continue to battle :-(

plus: there is no 100% automation that works all the time. mine will be manual with on/off switches to deal with my execution/distraction issues which will continue to exists until I quit or retire.
Staying in my lane...
  • #70
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:03pm Jan 28, 2019 2:03pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I dont think selling robots is even allowed in regulated futures without some exams and certifications. I do desire to disappear when I start live. The addiction of forums is something I continue to battle :-( plus: there is no 100% automation that works all the time. mine will be manual with on/off switches to deal with my execution/distraction issues which will continue to exists until I quit or retire.
leave forum...riiiight

for me personally, i spend my time between elitetrader, futures io, and forexfactory. i don't have facebook, no instagram, no snapchat..so really these forums are my link to the trading world. Most of it is just fun and useless posting, but, some posts are important. i mean, i wouldn't be trading futures, if it wasn't for forexfactory..lol the irony.
  • #71
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:03pm Jan 28, 2019 2:03pm
running 4 instruments today in replay at the same time since 6:30am
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Staying in my lane...
  • #72
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:36pm Jan 28, 2019 2:36pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} leave forum...riiiight for me personally, i spend my time between elitetrader, futures io, and forexfactory. i don't have facebook, no instagram, no snapchat..so really these forums are my link to the trading world. Most of it is just fun and useless posting, but, some posts are important. i mean, i wouldn't be trading futures, if it wasn't for forexfactory..lol the irony.
I hear you man. It's our link to the trading world. If I adhere to my "Staying in my lane" guidelines I wrote down earlier this year (it's not related to trading or forum but just an overall rule book of how I want to live my life through the "expiration" date), I should be fine.

I will probably write a book (perhaps my memoir?) about it to pass it on to the next generation.

Self-Affirmation: Keep it Simple. I just went down the multipair route today out of curiosity. Same thing I did with Currencies and it was very hard to stop. Keep it on the surface just expand your understanding of the futures market dynamics but do NOT dig deeper. Goal is to make a trade decision within 30 seconds. If it takes more than that, the strategy is too complicated for daily executions.

Note to Self: Principles of "Staying in my Lane" demand that I write down these reminders, affirmations and notes to contain my thought processes from wavering too much. Continue to re-iterate what works and what does not. Make it happen!
Staying in my lane...
  • #73
  • Jan 28, 2019 3:13pm Jan 28, 2019 3:13pm
this is the best quote you have made "Self-Affirmation: Keep it Simple. I just went down the multi pair route today out of curiosity. Same thing I did with Currencies and it was very hard to stop. Keep it on the surface just expand your understanding of the futures market dynamics but do NOT dig deeper. Goal is to make a trade decision within 30 seconds. If it takes more than that, the strategy is too complicated for daily executions".
  • #74
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:26pm Jan 30, 2019 1:26pm
i accidentally deleted my post with observations on reversion to mean versus divergence from mean.... oh well..

On M5
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Staying in my lane...
  • #75
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:33pm Jan 30, 2019 1:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
i accidentally deleted my post with observations on reversion to mean versus divergence from mean.... oh well.. On M5 {image}
Are you adding to your trades with each signal in your direction? Just curious. I enjoy talking to real traders.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #76
  • Jan 30, 2019 2:05pm Jan 30, 2019 2:05pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Are you adding to your trades with each signal in your direction? Just curious. I enjoy talking to real traders.
Glad you asked because the post I deleted by accident had reference to the MoveToBE monkey that I so much hate these days.

Three scenarios (inconclusive yet!)

  1. Max Position Size 1 and Max Position Count=6: Scale in each trade with No SL, No Move to BE and exit at Median.... most profitable but not good in DD
  2. Max Position Size 1 and Max Position Count=1: Scale in each trade with tight SL, no BE and exit at Median - works well but need to "space" my scale-in to limit small failures.
  3. #1 and #2 but with move to BE.... I get fucked with a 1000 paper cuts.

The key, as always with any automation or algo is the timing. I am unable to automate the timing aspect of my OC so trying to keep it fixed at session open... which will ALWAYS diverge from mean. I could kick it off with Divergence, take some fantastic profits (90+% win rate) and then manually stop my algo (again timing plays a role WHEN to stop the automation).

In the works: automating the start and stop aspect of algo.... as depending on "time" as in clocktime is not a good strategy. It needs to be driven by SCALE as the underlying factor to determine the theorem objectives i.e. how many losses towards 1 gain or how many gains to stop trading and call it a day. Scale is the key ingredient and not setup or PA or indicator.

Staying in my lane...
  • #77
  • Edited 7:46pm Jan 31, 2019 3:05am | Edited 7:46pm
Strike through posts are just invalid posts due to bug in my automation - not to be used for future reference

Circling back to Divergence vs Reversion (with on/off bi-directional switches later on):

Type: Divergence (Buy High and Sell Higher, Sell Low and Sell Lower)
Details: 1/1-1/30/19 with 6 contracts/position, max position=1 on M1. Time-Exit @ NYSE Close. No MoveSLtoBE, Tight Stops and let it run until NYSE Close, no Scale-in, no Scale-out.
(Standard Replay-close but may not be accurate)
Start Time: 6:33am
Algo-Version#: v4
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Staying in my lane...
  • #78
  • Edited 7:44pm Jan 31, 2019 3:26am | Edited 7:44pm
Type: Reversion (Buy Low and Sell High, Sell High and Buy Low)
Details: 1/1-1/30/19 with 6 contracts/position, max position=1 on M1. Time-Exit @ NYSE Close. No MoveSLtoBE, Tight Stops and let it run until NYSE Close, no Scale-in, no Scale-out.
(Standard Replay-close but may not be accurate)
Start Time: 6:33am
Algo-Version#: v4
Attached Images
Staying in my lane...
  • #79
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:38am Jan 31, 2019 3:38am
Reminder: I am only posting what I consider to have "some" potential for positive expectancy. In between, there are over 2+ dozen failed attempts via my "process of elimination" process. No point in sharing failures but knowing that all the work is being done up-front gives me some comfort. Still, no guarantee or assurance of any success in live even after so much effort put into strategy development phase.

I remain a fan of Divergence (from mean) and ofc Harold lol

Running 10/1/2018 > 12/31/2018 (It's 2am and still have to stay online for work so why not run some more tests to keep me awake :-)

Next stop:

1) Scale-in one contract, max 6 contracts open at any time (algo not working and too tired to investigate)
2) Observation: 6:30-9am works best for Divergence Style and 9am-noon works best for Reversion Style (this was expected as MM algos kick in during lunch time). Possible open is to run both Divergence and Reversion during NYSE

Oh, and I forgot to mention. ES is worse than dog shit. It stinks more than my shih-tzu lmao
Staying in my lane...
  • #80
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:14am Jan 31, 2019 4:14am
I am still searching for a trading platform that allows an indicator value to be dynamic (a variable!).

Example:
EMA(1) at first minute of trading session
EMA(2) at second minute of trading session
EMA(3) at 3rd minute of trading session....

Could this be coded in MT4? Something I need to test and rule out. Sierra allows an indicator to be calculated based on values from other indicators but not the way I describe above.
Staying in my lane...
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