Breakout London Timeframe

thanks bro

Mon: US holiday (MLK Birthday), China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Q4 GDP, NBS Press Conference, German PPI

Tue: World Economic Forum – Davos, UK Unemployment, Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Business Inventories, Existing Home Sales, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Wed: NZ Q4 CPI, Japan Trade Balance, BOJ Meeting/Statement, EU Consumer Confidence, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, Richmond Fed Mfg Index

Thur: Australian WBC Leading Economic Index, Unemployment, Nikkei Mfg PMI, NZ Credit Card Spending, EU Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, ECB Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference,

Fri: NZ Visitor Arrivals, Tokyo CPI, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Monthly Budget Statement

London stocks nudged up in early trade on Monday as investors digested uninspiring Chinese growth figures and awaited Theresa May’s presentation of her ‘Plan B’ on Brexit to Commons

China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, its slowest pace in almost 30 years, confirming a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy that could threaten global growth. After years of breakneck expansion, the world’s second largest economy is losing steam, official data on Monday confirmed. China’s growth in 2018 was the country’s slowest reported rate since 1990 and down from 6.8% growth in 2017. - Guardian

what will happen to emerging markets?

the oil price kept in low price? is it in panic stage?

Due to holiday for New york session, I choose to stay aside.

CANADA

there are two factors that could lend some serious support to the housing outlook in the year ahead. As we have pointed out at every available occasion, do not forget that Canada is currently experiencing the strongest population growth in a generation (up more than 1.4% y/y). Second, even with the rebound in yields in the past two weeks, long-term borrowing costs are still down from the modest levels of a year ago. And that retreat in yields over the past few months is now being reflected in some lower mortgage rates.

AUDUSD


Bias short

What a big down here?

let market confirm my signal

Wednesday 23 January - New Zealand CPI for Q4 2018

1. Headline inflation is expected to show below the RBNZ forecast, while 'core' underlying inflation is likely to be a little above. Don't forget that after the Stats people in NZ publish the inflation numbers the RBNZ will publish their own measures later ... these are well worth watching as potential kiwi movers.

Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasury yields slumped during late European session after returning from a long weekend, following concerns over global economic growth after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded estimates for global growth. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries plunged nearly 3 basis points to 2.755 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slumped 2-1/2 basis points to 3.070 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded nearly 2 basis points lower at 2.595 percent.

The United Kingdom’s gilts suffered during the afternoon session following a decade-high surge in the country’s wage growth for the month of November, while jobless rate decline unexpectedly, from that in October. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 1.337 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also surged 1-1/2 basis points to 1.849 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year jumped 2-1/2 basis points to 0.815 percent.

The Japanese government bonds gained on the second trading day of the week ahead of the country’s trade balance data for the month of December, scheduled to be released today by 23:50GMT and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision, due on January 23 for further direction in the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, remained tad lower at 0.001 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note fell 1-1/2 basis points to 0.681 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year plunged 17 basis points to -0.169 percent.

The Australian government bonds jumped across the curve during Asian trading session following a fall in the country’s weekly consumer confidence index as investors wait to watch the employment report for the month of December, scheduled to be released on January 24 by 00:30GMT. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, slipped 1 basis point to 2.301 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond fell 1-1/2 basis points to 2.823 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded tad higher at 1.895 percent.

Dollar Falls Ahead of Busy Week in Markets

Fri Jan 25 15:38:11 2019

The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday after President Trump reached a deal to reopen the Federal government. Washington will continue to operate amidst political uncertainty at the discussed agreement is only until February 15 when a new shutdown could occur if Democrats and the GOP don’t reach a deal on the border wall.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will publish its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday, January 30 at 2pm EST, with Chair Jerome Powell hosting a press conference at 2:30pm EST. The Fed signalled on Friday that it could slow down the balance sheet reduction program put in place to keep tightening monetary policy also putting pressure on the USD.

1. US Federal Reserve to keep rate unchanged
2. Fed Chief Powell could confirm a pause in tightening
3. US to have added 170,000 jobs in January

Dollar Softens as Fed Ready to Hit Rate Hike Pause
EUR/USD rose 0.46 percent in the last five trading days. The single pair is trading at 1.1414 ahead of a busy week of US economic indicators releases. The euro was higher on Friday as investors sold the dollar searching for higher yields. Political uncertainty in Washington is keeping investors from flocking to the US dollar ahead of the weekend.


https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/E...01-21_5d_m.png

Global stock markets advanced as the Fed is highly anticipated to pause its rate hike path after events in the last four weeks. The CME FedWatch tool shows the market is forecasting a 99.5 percent probability that the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 225–250 basis points range.
The US rose last year as geopolitical factors and the support of the central bank’s efforts to normalize interest rates. The Fed had tightened monetary policy by raising rates, but also by unwinding the massive balance sheet it had accumulated as part of its quantitive easing program. Friday’s report in the WSJ about a possible end or long-term pause to the balance sheet reduction was a positive for stocks, but a negative to the US
dollar.
US-China trade concerns remain, but they are moving to the background as the uncertainty on the US shutdown lessened with a short term agreement and the Fed is to take center stage with dovish expectations from the market. The US U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report is expected to keep showing that American employment is solid.
Pound Surges on Lower No-Deal Odds
The British pound surged in the last five trading days. GBP/USD rose 2.55 percent as the no-deal Brexit option is dropping in probability. The market could be too optimistic as Prime Minister Theresa May still has to present a proposal that satisfies UK PMs as well as remain close to what was agreed with the EU. The fact that no-deal is the least favoured option could be used as leverage to get some compromise on the UK side.


https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/G...01-21_5d_m.png

An extension to article 50 will kick the Brexit can down the road, but eventually the hard issues, like the backstop will have to be faced head on.
Gold Gains as Fed Signals Less Tightening
Gold rose 1.41 percent on Friday. The yellow metal gained ahead of what is expected to be a dovish Fed statement and the weakness of the US dollar. The US central bank is heavily anticipated to pump the brakes on its interest rate hike policy, and even stop its balance sheet reduction program.


https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/X...01-30_5d_m.png

Gold had been caught in a familiar range this week, with limited details on global macro risk events. Friday’s report of the Fed holding on to more Treasuries than originally intended ahead of a FOMC meeting where no change to the Fed funds rate is expected and a dovish Powell took the wind out of the US dollar.
The yellow metal will continue to be an option for investors if volatility rises during the week on any development from Brexit, Venezuela and the US-China trade war. US economic indicators schedule this week could also keep gold from rising next week. US employment and manufacturing data remain solid and could boost the greenback.
Crude Gains on Friday on Soft Dollar Venezuela Anxiety
Energy prices rose on Friday, but could not offset the losses of the week. West Texas Intermediate lost 0.7 percent and Brent 1.8 percent as lower demand impacted by falling global growth forecasts. Rising supplies continue to put downward pressure on crude prices despite the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers to limit production.
Rising US output and the possible European bypass of US sanctions on Iranian crude offset any disruptions caused by the political situation in Venezuela.


https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/W...01-21_5d_m.png

A weaker dollar and the possible sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports were behind the move Friday, but energy prices face rising supply as US production is surging, while the US-China trade dispute continues to restrict global growth
Monday, January 28
9:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tuesday, January 29
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
7:30pm AUD CPI q/q
Wednesday, January 30
2:00pm USD FOMC Statement
2:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate
2:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, January 31
8:30am CAD GDP m/m
Friday, Feb 1
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

as always due to China market slowing down, the AUD will hit badly..

look to more bear sentiment surrounding this week

EURUSD

this is quite concern scenario for me to long USD..

from the chart, the EURUSD still in range mode.

basically, price still below 100ma. bear still in control overall

Euro area business growth close to stalling at 5½ year low in January

Next week will be an important one for the US dollar. The longest ever US government shutdown delayed many economic reports and investors are left with nothing but small glimpses into how the economy is doing. That will change in the next few days with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and the Nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for release. Unlike other agencies, there will be no delays to NFP because the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is funded through September 30th. The market's appetite for US dollars is always a key driver of FX flows and we saw that last week when the greenback traded lower against all of the major currencies.

The jobs data from the surveys were also somewhat disappointing, with the overall rate of job creation slipping to a 20-month low. However, even this weaker January survey employment index reading is consistent with private sector payroll growth of approximately 150,000.

USDCAD

the price come to a interesting level.

basically, business sentiment still intact although lower oil price.

Coming soon, Iran sanction & Venuezula will play a important role on this pair.

bear continue its movement

Despite softer rates of output and new business growth, the latest survey revealed an accelerated rise in unfinished work. Higher backlogs of work have been recorded for three months running, driven by ongoing capacity pressures.

Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased to its lowest since August 2017. Manufacturers noted that lower oil-related prices had helped to offset pressure on costs from rising prices for metals. Factory gate charges also increased at a slower pace in December. There was an alleviation of pressure on supply chains at the end of 2018, with lead times for manufacturing inputs lengthening to the least marked extent since April 2017.

GBPUSD

recently, the GBP rise tremendouly. I call it bull volatile.

some more it come to a round number and important place where everybody watching closely.

I believe sideways will be happen.

Though the overall index figure was higher than last month, this should be viewed with some scepticism. Whilst the road to Brexit remains mired in the mud of indecision and disagreement, there is likely to be some correction in the sector this year as Brexit buffer stocks are depleted and overall output could fall.

Political uncertainty at home and abroad, along with weakening economic growth in key markets were cited as the drivers for the export downturn.

Exports in consumer goods help offset automotive sector weakness

With such mixed economic growth diversification is key

Supply chain challenges and rise in stockpiling driven by disruption concerns associated with the UK’s planned exit from the EU. this will lead to increase on inventory especially manufacturer which rely to import raw materials. of course, this will lead to demand on GBP.

GBPUSD

already in short position.

still manage my trade cautiously/

USDCAD

as you can see, the market come back to retest the 1.32.

remember, now the Venezuela issue getting hot and plus Trade War disscussion in ongoing. this will somehow, my guessing bearish view soon become real.

do you think the price will break down?

EURUSD

as the price in the range. I didn't choose this pair.

I wait for it to breakout

if you also want to trade, pls trade carefully using news trading method which mean in-out from headline to another headline.

trade wisely.

AUDUSD

the price at the round number, which I love to short it just now.

the growth & inflation of AUD in downtrend.

Australia's trade surplus narrowed to AUD 1.93 billion in November 2018, below the downwardly revised AUD 2.01 billion in the previous month (vs 2.32 billion preliminary) and market expectations of a AUD 2.23 billion surplus. Both exports and imports hit all-time highs. Balance of Trade in Australia averaged -510.94 AUD Million from 1971 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4514 AUD Million in December of 2016 and a record low of -4251 AUD Million in April of 2015.

Week beginning 4 February 2019

„ RBA forecasts to be consistent with on hold policy.
„ RBA: policy meeting, Governor Lowe speaks, Statement on Monetary Policy.
„ Australia: dwelling approvals, retail sales, trade balance, Banking Inquiry Report.
„ NZ: residential building consents, labour force, labour cost index.
„ China: Caixin services PMI.
„ UK: BOE policy decision.
„ Europe: retail sales, Sentix investor confidence.
„ US: Fed Chair Powell speaks, factory orders.
„ Key economic & financial forecasts.

RECAP OF THE WEEK

 HoC vote on PM’s ‘plan B’ amendments provided the PM two weeks to re-engage EU
 US Fed took a dovish turn, driving US rates and the USD lower, and supporting equities
 EZ flash ‘headline’ CPI fell to 1.4%y/y on lower energy prices, while ‘core’ CPI rose 1.1%y/y
 US labour market data surprised on the upside, with +304k
 UK manufacturing PMI fell to a 3-month low, supported by continued input stock building