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Let's Trade Options

  • #16,561
  • Edited Jan 27, 2019 1:31pm Jan 26, 2019 11:00pm | Edited Jan 27, 2019 1:31pm
shit I stopped trying to trade natgas some time ago, mostly because it was bottom scudding but also becuz there was not a real great options instrument for it. Just realized UNG went thru a 1:4 rev split over a year ago, makes it more tradeable.

So double shit I missed the recent spike to >$35, another one like that would be a gift to fade....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,562
  • Jan 27, 2019 1:44pm Jan 27, 2019 1:44pm
Quoting The Fool
So double shit I missed the recent spike to >$35, another one like that would be a gift to fade....
....maybe big cold snap gets another little pop in natgas but prolly a long shot......look to fade anything >$30, with time.....Summer natgas UNG prolly be back <$23
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,563
  • Jan 27, 2019 9:13pm Jan 27, 2019 9:13pm
Yikes check the Chi town forecast...polar vortex coming....watch for a natty spike
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,564
  • Jan 28, 2019 8:48am Jan 28, 2019 8:48am
Quoting The Fool
tastyworks did a study of stock moves after earnings - generally big moves up were followed by continuing moves up or ranging sideways - usually not be reversals. Anyway, good luck, money.
They don't have to reverse, just a small pullback is usually good enough for a decent profit. And my charts are usually very accurate at predicting an extremely overbought/oversold condition that is ripe for a pullback, regardless of the reason causing that condition to occur.

I got out of the following this morning:

EDU Feb19 75 PUT @ $3.50 up from $1.78
  • #16,565
  • Jan 28, 2019 9:04am Jan 28, 2019 9:04am
Quoting The Fool
Yikes check the Chi town forecast...polar vortex coming....watch for a natty spike
....with huge overhang in production capacity you could wait a long time for another pop like November...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,566
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:31pm Jan 28, 2019 2:31pm
Looking at getting into the following before the close:

XLNX Feb19 110 PUT @ $3.75 or better

Should be good for some quick bucks....
  • #16,567
  • Jan 28, 2019 3:00pm Jan 28, 2019 3:00pm
Well, got into:

XLNX Feb19 110PUT @ $3.95....not as good as I wanted but I did want to get it today....

Would have been nice to watch it at the open, I could have got it for around $2.80, most likely. But while it was spiking up at the open, EDU was spiking down so that was my focus.

I need to get back into putting a Hail Mary limit order out there in case something I'm watching does spike in my direction. I used to do that and would get some awesome deals sometimes....
  • #16,568
  • Jan 28, 2019 4:58pm Jan 28, 2019 4:58pm
markets still susceptible to Fed fear, but this week's FOMC looking like a nothingburger....I am waiting for an idea or two b4 I get in some new trades....not really into doing earnings setups this cycle, too distracted with other things....maybe wait for the FOMC and we"ll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,569
  • Jan 29, 2019 11:01am Jan 29, 2019 11:01am
Got some more at the open:

XLNX Feb19 110 PUT @ $3.10, so my average is $3.53, which isn't too bad....
  • #16,570
  • Jan 29, 2019 5:29pm Jan 29, 2019 5:29pm
I'll be looking at the following in the morning, depending on where pre-market futures are pointing:

ADI Feb15 96 PUT @ $1.75 or better

KMB Feb15 109 CALL @ $1.55 or better

ZION Feb15 48 PUT @ $0.90 or better

If we get spikes at the open, I'll see if I can't get them even cheaper....
  • #16,571
  • Jan 30, 2019 8:48am Jan 30, 2019 8:48am
Quoting moneymaker2
Got some more at the open: XLNX Feb19 110 PUT @ $3.10, so my average is $3.53, which isn't too bad....
Added some more to XLNX right at the opening:

XLNX Feb15 110 PUT @ $1.85, and that brings my average to $2.69, which is awesome!
  • #16,572
  • Jan 30, 2019 8:54am Jan 30, 2019 8:54am
In the following, also:

ZION Feb15 48 PUT @ $0.90

Should make for a little cash...
  • #16,573
  • Jan 30, 2019 11:47am Jan 30, 2019 11:47am
Quoting The Fool
markets still susceptible to Fed fear, but this week's FOMC looking like a nothingburger....I am waiting for an idea or two b4 I get in some new trades....not really into doing earnings setups this cycle, too distracted with other things....maybe wait for the FOMC and we"ll see...
just holding bullish trades....I have nothing open after Feb1...looking for a rally on a dovish FOMC. Going on vacay next week and will be flat.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,574
  • Jan 30, 2019 11:49am Jan 30, 2019 11:49am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Added some more to XLNX right at the opening: XLNX Feb15 110 PUT @ $1.85, and that brings my average to $2.69, which is awesome!
...up >$1.50 today, good luck...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,575
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:19pm Jan 30, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...up >$1.50 today, good luck...
Thanks! This little FOMC pop will be short lived as there were no surprises in the statement. When it was trading at $111.22 right before the statement was released, ask price for the options were $2.70, so I should be in the money anywhere below $111.00....so I'll make some decent money on this.

Enjoy your vacation. Have fun and be safe!!
  • #16,576
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:19pm Jan 30, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
...looking for a rally on a dovish FOMC.
Bingo.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,577
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:22pm Jan 30, 2019 1:22pm
Quoting moneymaker2
This little FOMC pop will be short lived as there were no surprises in the statement.
Well, we'll see....I kind of think it will grow some legs
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,578
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:26pm Jan 30, 2019 1:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Well, we'll see....I kind of think it will grow some legs
It might overall, I was just referring to the XLNX pop because of the statement....
  • #16,579
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:39pm Jan 30, 2019 1:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}checking....we have.... IWM Feb1 bull vert calls, $143/143.5 - bot for 6c worth 42c now, best I prolly get is 45c, .........XRT Jan25/Feb1 $46 clndr calls, bot a shitload at 5c, worth19c now, looking for 7-8 bag
got the 45c on the IWM verts......XRT I have the Feb1 $46 long calls left, looking like a long shot now, might lose a nickel
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,580
  • Jan 30, 2019 1:41pm Jan 30, 2019 1:41pm
Quoting The Fool
checking....we have.... SPY Feb1 $268/270 bull vert calls, bot for 16c, worth 78c now, holding out for 7-8 bag
...SPY vert could get better with rally legs, worth 75c now
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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