Macro & Market Developments, Discussion & Analysis | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

[Book Discussion] Thomas R Demark - New Science of Technical Analysis - Chapter 1 30 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie 26 replies

Weekly Analysis For Majors / Open Discussion 16 replies

S&P 500 Analysis and Discussion Thread 3 replies

Attachments: Macro & Market Developments, Discussion & Analysis
Exit Attachments

Macro & Market Developments, Discussion & Analysis

  • #21
  • Dec 18, 2018 1:30am Dec 18, 2018 1:30am
Quoting synicz
{quote} Interesting that you mentioned consensus was for inflation to pick up. I was not aware of that.
don't listen to me ahaha

I'm new to this macro game and that call was very anecdotal. just based on interviews with random people haha.

I agree with you about not knowing where we are in the cycle. I'm assuming you say this based off GDP and inflation data being what happened three months ago not what's happening now? I like the idea of measuring and mapping the rate of change as a way of combating this. any ideas?

also, cool what you found on the s&p. i would love to backtest the s&p and see its average returns during times of decelerating inflation and GDP. imagine that data for every phase of the cycle for every assets class??? a huge amount of work no doubt but then if your forcasts for inflatin are GDP are accurate it seems like you have an awsome playbook for diffrent cycles?? again this is all new to me so please correct my thinking where wrong haha.

How did you learn all this macro stuff? I'm trying to fill my brain with as much info as possible

and thanks for your time!

Jack
  • #22
  • Dec 18, 2018 8:24am Dec 18, 2018 8:24am
Quoting alcap
{quote} don't listen to me ahaha I'm new to this macro game and that call was very anecdotal. just based on interviews with random people haha. I agree with you about not knowing where we are in the cycle. I'm assuming you say this based off GDP and inflation data being what happened three months ago not what's happening now? I like the idea of measuring and mapping the rate of change as a way of combating this. any ideas? also, cool what you found on the s&p. i would love to backtest the s&p and see its average returns during times of decelerating...
Having quantitative research is of course essential in trading, nothing wrong with your thinking! It sounds all good. The hard part is finding the data to be used for this analysis. You typically have to buy these data. Which means additional "trading costs"

Honestly I kinda forgot how I started learning all the macro stuff. All I remember is that the information is scattered everywhere and you really have to spent countless hours digging through the endless articles, videos, interviews, books etc.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #23
  • Dec 19, 2018 8:29am Dec 19, 2018 8:29am
The big event coming up later is fed interest rate decision. Markets are seemingly pricing in a dovish rate hike. However I do feel that the expectation of a dovish fed is way overdone. Yes there might likely be a change of tune in the fed's statement. But I seriously doubt it will be to the extent that they will stop hiking rates in 2019.

This looks like the kind of options play. Possibly buying otm puts on equities.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #24
  • Edited Dec 20, 2018 6:58am Dec 19, 2018 3:20pm | Edited Dec 20, 2018 6:58am
I`m just getting in to the fundamental analysis, but here is my contribution a few minutes ago I saw that for some reason AUD and NZD dropped heavy to USD.
Remembering that their economies are somewhat related, I went to research the reasons. Turns out the main reason were bad economic reports from China. Which is their top trade partner.
p.s. please correct me if i`m wrong
The truth is hidden from you
  • #25
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:48pm Dec 19, 2018 5:48pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
I`m just getting in to the fundamental analysis, but here is my contribution a few minutes ago I saw that for some reason AUD and NZD dropped heavy to USD. Remembering that their economies are somewhat related, I went to research the reasons. Turns out the main reason for bad economic reports from China. Which is their top trade partner. p.s. please correct me if i`m wrong

Our analysis are simply opinions we hold. I wont be able to tell you right from wrong unless you are wayyyyyy off the mark.

Glad to hear your inputs! It is well appreciated.
My opinion on it is that the move was driven mostly by USD strength as Fed came out not as dovish as markets expected.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #26
  • Dec 22, 2018 1:39am Dec 22, 2018 1:39am
To recap on last week. Equities had a very rough week. With US Equities nearly reaching bear market territory.
US Dollar also had a rather volatile week. Falling on a more dovish Fed yet bouncing back when markets became risk off.

Heading into Christmas week, expect the effect of lower liquidity to be felt. There should not be too much action as most traders are off, however im hesitant to say for certain given the current situation. My take is that there will be alot of wide swings due to the lower liquidity, try not to get too trigger happy with trading next week. If possible, I'd rather stay out of the markets.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #27
  • Dec 22, 2018 1:49am Dec 22, 2018 1:49am
Here is an interesting finding to mull over the weekend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P Days off Record High.png Size: 939 KB


The table above shows the number of days which S&P500 closes away from record high levels. This is given in percentage form to give context.
We can see that the number of days spent away from record highs are lesser the further away we are from record highs. This provide great insights for potential market timing.

Currently, S&P500 is about 17.5% away from its record high set around September. The numbers suggests that the odds for buying the dip now is very favourable. As the probability that prices drop further is lowered significantly.

What are your thoughts on the stats?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #28
  • Dec 23, 2018 6:26pm Dec 23, 2018 6:26pm
Woke up to big news of press release that Steve Mnuchin "reassuring" everyone that the US economy is strong. A quick scroll on twitter tells me that this actually have the opposite effect.

Personally, I feel that this news is significant given the recent market conditions + lessened liquidity at Christmas week. This could mean that equity markets may be heading into another risk off week led by the US.

Although i would prefer to stay out of the markets this week, if forced to decide, I would have to go with a bearish bias for this week.

Trade safe and happy holidays everybody!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #29
  • Dec 26, 2018 7:08pm Dec 26, 2018 7:08pm
Big gains in US session. But be cautious that this is simply volatility and could be a sign of uncertainty!

Traders could position themselves for scalps on risk sentiment currencies such as short Yen trades or long EM currencies. But do note to take profit fast! This rally is unlikely to last very long!

All the headline focus seems to be on the equity markets. It would be interesting to see if there are opportunities in other neglected markets. Maybe somebody could chipin?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #30
  • Jan 1, 2019 7:36am Jan 1, 2019 7:36am
Happy New Year Fellow Traders!

Just to put in my thoughts before markets open in a few hours time.

I am starting to read opinions and views calling for US Dollar Weakness going into 2019. With the prime arguement that a Dovish Fed and slowing US economy will act as headwinds. While I do not disagree that this are valid reasons to call for a weaker US Dollar, I do feel that the current economic landscape still favours a strong US Dollar relative to other developed currencies. Look at UK and Europe, politically they are unstable. Sure people are calling for upside risk to a increasingly oversold Pound, but this is still a relatively risky call. I would be hesitant to bet on the Pound or the Euro until I see actual development on the political scene. EM currencies are also at the mercy of rising US interest rates. Where I do see some sort of value is in Emerging Market space. Having been badly impacted by the combination of rising US interest rates and trade war talks. Asian equities and currencies actually looks relatively cheap in historical terms and relative to the western markets. My attention might be focused there to look for potential good bets I could take.

Taking a more specific view to US equity markets, my expectation for S&P500 this years is a fairly volatile year. Based on what I know, we are looking at ending the year flat with big swings in either direction.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #31
  • Jan 2, 2019 5:48pm Jan 2, 2019 5:48pm
This is probably the biggest risk off movement i have seen in currencies due to cutting of profit guidance!

We are seeing swings of 2-3% in Yen and USD pairs.

While it is tempting to jump on the risk off bandwagon, I would be skeptical that such moves will last. As the reaction is quite exaggerated relative to the news. Probably would be better to fade this risk off movement for scalps. Remember to take profit fast as you never know if the momentum may carry on!

Safe trading and may you be in green!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #32
  • Jan 3, 2019 6:01pm Jan 3, 2019 6:01pm
We are starting to see more signs of the impact of trade war fears and economic slowdown. With business confidence dropping more than expected.
Also, Apple's profit guidance is certainly not helping.

These news could mean intraday shorting opportunities for risk assets (E.g Long Yen, Short Aud, Equities). But as today is a friday, I would be cautious about holding past noon.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #33
  • Jan 13, 2019 7:11pm Jan 13, 2019 7:11pm
Last weeks rally in risk assets really caught me by surprise.

As there are many potential catalyst for a bear case in global economic growth, it is really surprising to see much buying activities. Im taking an anti consensus bet on this one. My outlook for longer term plays (6mo) is negative from here. On the back of potential aggravation of one of the big risk currently (Trade war, interest rate, China, Brexit, Europe)
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #34
  • Jan 14, 2019 7:16pm Jan 14, 2019 7:16pm
All eyes on GBP!

No real comments here. Im bearish on UK in general as long as brexit uncertainty remains.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #35
  • Jan 20, 2019 7:25pm Jan 20, 2019 7:25pm
"A rising tide lifts all boat."

The sudden drastic improvement in risk appetite due to what seems like improving trade talks is in HIGHLY MISLEADING.

Look, we still have problems. And this "improved talks" is really in my opinion, just a way for the Chinese to delay the talks.

Will the Chinese give in? Maybe. But currently, it seems rather unlikely.

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

This famous line made by legendary investor Warren Buffett really encompasses the point I am trying to make here.
Investors are simply too optimistic. There is still a real risk that trade talks can go wrong. Add to that other problems going on elsewhere in the world, which may have a contagion effect on risk appetite and equity markets.

There is no trade recommendations here, just a warning that markets are acting rather irrationally recently.
Do not get caught swimming naked.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #36
  • Jan 25, 2019 5:21pm Jan 25, 2019 5:21pm
To add to the AUD discussion, I have recently taken a short on the AUDJPY for the following reasons:

 

  1. 2019 will see the Yen appreciate due to SH flows
  2. The NI225, when priced in other currencies, has shown to have a very consistent rally which is fundamentally set to continue and do better compared to most other economies
  3. The Australian 10-year yields have been on a steady decline for some time now and I expect this to continue

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #37
  • Feb 9, 2019 7:52pm Feb 9, 2019 7:52pm
Quoting forexin101
To add to the AUD discussion, I have recently taken a short on the AUDJPY for the following reasons: 2019 will see the Yen appreciate due to SH flows The NI225, when priced in other currencies, has shown to have a very consistent rally which is fundamentally set to continue and do better compared to most other economies The Australian 10-year yields have been on a steady decline for some time now and I expect this to continue
1/about safe heaven flows,can you predict that on very long time ( in my experience about risk on/risk off/safe heaven flows is doing in case by case moment in the world)?
3/about australian 10 year yields steady decline///(the money have to flow yen,if the us 10 year/2 year us more interesting in yield and gilt/bund more interesting in yield)?
  • #38
  • Last Post: Apr 13, 2019 6:29am Apr 13, 2019 6:29am
Quoting forexin101
To add to the AUD discussion, I have recently taken a short on the AUDJPY for the following reasons: 2019 will see the Yen appreciate due to SH flows The NI225, when priced in other currencies, has shown to have a very consistent rally which is fundamentally set to continue and do better compared to most other economies The Australian 10-year yields have been on a steady decline for some time now and I expect this to continue

Well AUD has just broken consolidation to the upside on the charts so good luck with that
0 traders viewing now