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Pivot Trading

  • #24,301
  • Jan 23, 2019 6:12pm Jan 23, 2019 6:12pm
It seems Price Action has turned AUDxxx pairs from bullish to bearish even though the news is positive.. Will wait a few more hours for more confirmation on possible downside instead...
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,302
  • Jan 23, 2019 6:25pm Jan 23, 2019 6:25pm
Quoting Jester_73
Crypto, Davit, Mundo, Husky77 (pretty much any trader who got the hang of news events) please, would you be so kind and clarify regarding what you Davit describe as "awareness of calendar events". I truly want to learn but it seems I am too stupid.
Honestly I don’t trade the news, it’s never been a winning strategy for me. It’s a simple choice. If I’m well in profit, do I ride it thru or close? Most of the time I will close and take profit before news release. I may have left money on the table but there’s enough low hanging fruit then chasing spikes. I’m mostly looking for swing failures and late week markups.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #24,303
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:05pm Jan 23, 2019 8:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Jester I will get back to you family is calling for dinner You are raising valid points
Can you explain it in this thread, so everyone can read it, thank you.
  • #24,304
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:10pm Jan 23, 2019 8:10pm
Quoting Jester_73
Crypto, Davit, Mundo, Husky77 (pretty much any trader who got the hang of news events) please, would you be so kind and clarify regarding what you Davit describe as "awareness of calendar events". I truly want to learn but it seems I am too stupid. What I do not understand is this. If we agree that it is calendar events/news that move price then why would we enter earlier? I have seen it before and I believe Davit you were already in AJ longs? Why would we therefore not wait until news comes out (i.e. up until an hour ago) as we can never...
Jester, I have seen many times that news events are already priced in before a news event. That is why price does not always move significantly at or after a news event and thus not all news events have an impact on price action, even though the news event is marked red on the FF news calendar.
  • #24,305
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:23pm Jan 23, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} There's a few general rules I apply keeps me out of trouble. 1) Only sell above and buy below WP. 2) If previous weeks price ends in outer levels, and cant break beyond R/S38 of current week, then get out. 3) Keep an eye on recent levels. {image}
Can you explain it more clearly please? Thank you
Did you mean if price bellow WP, we only place buy order?
And if price above WP, we only place sell order?

Thank you
  • #24,306
  • Jan 23, 2019 9:16pm Jan 23, 2019 9:16pm
Quoting fxbarwise
{quote} Jester, I have seen many times that news events are already priced in before a news event. That is why price does not always move significantly at or after a news event and thus not all news events have an impact on price action, even though the news event is marked red on the FF news calendar.
And these are the perfect example where AUssie were already priced in. News positive price went up just for banks to have more liquidity to sell it from the top. That is why we cannot just trade based on fundamentals. We have to combine it with technicals too. Coz often news are just noise, you trade what you see on ur chart
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,307
  • Jan 23, 2019 9:23pm Jan 23, 2019 9:23pm
Alert.

watch out for AUDxxx pairs printing bearish engulfing candle after news.. Wait for 4h candle close or if the candle is too long, wait for 61.8% retracement to have a better price entry.. then i believe these can be a great time to short instead but i could be wrong of course
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #24,308
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:34pm Jan 23, 2019 11:34pm
Quoting Davit
currently shorting EU from 78R confirmed by TDI 5 positions just notice guys how accurate it is.Notice the resistance at 61R.Just a beautiful trading tool. need 1547 taken out for more bear action {image}
Quoting Davit
Closed my EU shorts +456pips! {image}
Based on trades above: How will you know r61 will break?
Thank you.
  • #24,309
  • Jan 24, 2019 2:41am Jan 24, 2019 2:41am
Quoting programtesti
{quote} {quote} Based on trades above: How will you know r61 will break? Thank you.
He doesn't know. It's all a numbers game.

It's all probability.

See this Davit's post:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post10983636
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #24,310
  • Jan 24, 2019 3:12am Jan 24, 2019 3:12am
Quoting programtesti
{quote} Can you explain it in this thread, so everyone can read it, thank you.

There's a PDF i posted that explains a lot of your questions. Posted here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10335951
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #24,311
  • Jan 24, 2019 3:32am Jan 24, 2019 3:32am
Quoting Jester_73
Crypto, Davit, Mundo, Husky77 (pretty much any trader who got the hang of news events)
I never trade news ,to base your trades on this you must have a very good understanding of economic data who spin this world and i dont have such skills yet ,
I only watch news before to trigger any trade to see what can come in my way to move or not that trade price against me. Of course i prefer always to trade calm zones ,so not right before news and not right after. We trade zones created by pivots + PA as they are forming better probabilities in our favor. Clean charts and bigger TF's will always show you the better big picture and structure,may not see it yet if youre new in trading but with time watching all those charts and currencies movements you will get it,it will come just like that with experience accumulated by your WATCHING EYE.
cheer up
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #24,312
  • Edited 3:43am Jan 24, 2019 3:32am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting Jester_73
Crypto, Davit, Mundo, Husky77 (pretty much any trader who got the hang of news events) please, would you be so kind and clarify regarding what you Davit describe as "awareness of calendar events". I truly want to learn but it seems I am too stupid. What I do not understand is this. If we agree that it is calendar events/news that move price then why would we enter earlier? I have seen it before and I believe Davit you were already in AJ longs? Why would we therefore not wait until news comes out (i.e. up until an hour ago) as we can never...
What Are the Key Releases?
1. Interest rate decision
2. Retail sales
3. Inflation (consumer price or producer price)
4. Unemployment
5. Industrial production
6. Business sentiment surveys
7. Consumer confidence surveys
8. Trade balance
9. Manufacturing sector surveys

Keep in mind any of these events can be more important then others if that's the only thing in the week.Above are key events.Why is being aware of events help trading?This is like asking why study the terrain before a battle.Its about planning your trading ahead of news and after.Your expectations may not meet but does not mean ignorance is an Edge its not.
I study weekly events for planning my trades but its a loose concept meaning I am not 100% committed before I see how prices move.For example I could not say before ECB Thurs I would sell EU on Sat prior.This would be projecting your bias incorrectly.What is correct behavior is know that ECB is on Thurs and wait to see opportunities to hit. Example both EC and EA hit Pivots tops hours ego and descending now and one could sell until ECB then get out.This is good example of being aware you would be surprised how many traders don't even know ECB event today.Like I said ignorance is not an EDGE

I don't trade news I trade sentiment /pivots and price action.News to me is part of sentiment.Being aware of this helps understanding the market moves.
Over time you will see moves almost predict it with higher accuracy because you are in tune with the market.Takes time and why trading is hard there is no easy steps of 1 2 3.I am not an expert I share what helps me.You laid out your EDGE and rest is probabilities.I know my EDGE.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,313
  • Edited 3:51am Jan 24, 2019 3:39am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting programtesti
{quote} Can you explain it more clearly please? Thank you Did you mean if price bellow WP, we only place buy order? And if price above WP, we only place sell order? Thank you
Imagine a two ways highway, you are on the normal side where everyone (price) goes as your way and while youre driving you find pivot levels and zones where you can trigger (push gas) . will you go on the other side where everyone (price) is against your way? i guess not.
you will never know what can come on the right side of the chart as long youre just a little retailer,thats it. but you can guess and act to catch price on your side when probabilities are in your favor, thats what pivot zones + PA does ,they show you when might be a bigger probability for you to catch price and go in your favor.
Many fail here in fact ... most. because they just hit trigger when price is at one simple 61 or 78 , without chart bigger structure picture view and PA , 61,78 or 100 are just simple lines that may means ... nothing.
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #24,314
  • Jan 24, 2019 4:56am Jan 24, 2019 4:56am
Bought AU
Still on CJ long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYM30.png Size: 40 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,315
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:04am Jan 24, 2019 5:04am
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvse...outube.en.html
in 25 min
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,316
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:37am Jan 24, 2019 5:37am
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,317
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:48am Jan 24, 2019 5:48am
I am surprised Draghi is still ECB president
The guy makes Golf super exciting in comparison.Lots of robot and algo trading now.Every word creates a reaction
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,318
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:48am Jan 24, 2019 5:48am
EU S61 holding strong
  • #24,319
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:51am Jan 24, 2019 5:51am
Quoting daywalker654
EU S61 holding strong
could change after the conference when big boys start their orders.Don't get deceived.Could test 1280-1250
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #24,320
  • Jan 24, 2019 5:54am Jan 24, 2019 5:54am
Watch EJ better to long then EU where you are going to pay expensive swap daily.
Don't long yet! Watch after the conference PA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 32 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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