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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #38,601
  • Jan 21, 2019 3:07pm Jan 21, 2019 3:07pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I think it all depends on the targets as well. With the information that on cable we are looking for a intraday breakout catching 15, 20, 30 pips ... can we say any sl less than 18 pips is doomed? But let us say we want to target 70,80, a 100 pips on cable. Is the 18 pips doomed now? In most cases, it seems. But maybe someone is so precise and can only use the best setups. I am not saying I can do it. But it all depends on your objectives. Then also on the volatility of the market. I have tested fixed stops in recent years, and guess what?...

And if instead of a SL, you just use the hedging? And search for a BE next trade? With a 40% winners you're still profitable
  • #38,602
  • Jan 21, 2019 3:44pm Jan 21, 2019 3:44pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} That begs the question: What is the minimum SL on eurusd based on your stats, please?
Ikdenk

My motto is : ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE PERFECT ENTRIES......I dont need a perfect entry to be successful

please look at the capture of the spreadsheet below, this spreadsheet is the frequency distribution list of all moves from at least 8 to 40 pips before a retracement of 8 pips minimum.

the list show the last 5495 moves from july 1 2018, to last friday so basically it covers all type of market conditions ( range , up trend, down trend)

you can see that a retracement up to 9 pips happen only 12.6% of the time : it means that if you have a retracement up to 9 pips you have 87.4% (100% - 12.6%) chance to see the price continue is retracement .

now look at the yellow lines;
retracement of up to 16 pips represent 64.3%
retracement up to 24 pips represent 87.4%
retracement up to 35 pips cover 96.4%of the moves

so with this in mind i use 2 different MM strategies:i select one based on market conditions:

1. i use this one if i enter on Pivot point:
entry 100% of my full risk
partial SL 1: - 12 pips 40%
partial SL2 : -24 pips 30%
final SL : -35 pips 30%
you have to understand that if lets say my first 2 partial SL are executed and my signal is still valid and price is going back in the right direction i can for sure re-enter for the same size (for me partial SL are not loss but its like losing a round during the match).

2.i use this one especially if im doing counter trend entries:
i split my entries into 3 with a SL at -35 pips
entry 1 :20% of my full risk
entry 2 30% at -12
entry 3 50% at -24
and final SL at -35
and for sure these are general guideline and based on moves will adapt my MM

hope that my french english is clear enough
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 30 KB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #38,603
  • Jan 21, 2019 3:59pm Jan 21, 2019 3:59pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} Ikdenk My motto is : ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE PERFECT ENTRIES......I dont need a perfect entry to be successful please look at the capture of the spreadsheet below, this spreadsheet is the frequency distribution list of all moves from at least 8 to 40 pips before a retracement of 8 pips minimum. the list show the last 5495 moves from july 1 2018, to last friday so basically it covers all type of market conditions ( range , up trend, down trend) you can see that a retracement up to 9 pips happen only 12.6% of the time : it means that if...
A wonderful post...
regarding a perfect entry?..i think that talk is for for chat rooms and not relevant to real trading, as is taking profit?
Trade well, i know you do.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,604
  • Jan 21, 2019 4:11pm Jan 21, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} A wonderful post... regarding a perfect entry?..i think that talk is for for chat rooms and not relevant to real trading, as is taking profit? Trade well, i know you do.
for TP is the same : NOBODY KNOWS WHERE THE PRICE WILL BE IN 15 MN ..... and dont need to know to be successful .... WE TRADE UNCERTAINTY ...nothing else
so instead of working on entry signals or target exit .... we should work on risk mamagement ....
this is why Claudia '" Never ending short " is working .... because of her smart MM not entries.

i scale out my TP on 12 to 15 pips (80%) and i often keep a part of my position (20%) and i reload 80% on retracement ...
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #38,605
  • Jan 21, 2019 4:21pm Jan 21, 2019 4:21pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} for TP is the same : NOBODY KNOWS WHERE THE PRICE WILL BE IN 15 MN ..... and dont need to know to be successful .... WE TRADE UNCERTAINTY ...nothing else so instead of working on entry signals or target exit .... we should work on risk mamagement .... this is why Claudia '" Never ending short " is working .... because of her smart MM not entries. i scale out my TP on 12 to 15 pips (80%) and i often keep a part of my position (20%) and i reload 80% on retracement ...
another good post.thank you.
That is why i post mini levels, these are areas high/low where we expect market to move and if i were trading a fail i would take part of the move NOT ALL.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,606
  • Jan 21, 2019 4:30pm Jan 21, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} for TP is the same : NOBODY KNOWS WHERE THE PRICE WILL BE IN 15 MN ..... and dont need to know to be successful .... WE TRADE UNCERTAINTY ...nothing else so instead of working on entry signals or target exit .... we should work on risk mamagement .... this is why Claudia '" Never ending short " is working .... because of her smart MM not entries. i scale out my TP on 12 to 15 pips (80%) and i often keep a part of my position (20%) and i reload 80% on retracement ...
Made me smile - and thanks.

It doesn't really matter where you start its getting to the end is the important bit - and more important knowing where the end is and managing positions until you get there. Keep on selling ! Lem there's a song there somewhere ...

@HM owe you a reply on the book thread - haven't forgot.
  • #38,607
  • Jan 21, 2019 5:05pm Jan 21, 2019 5:05pm
56 mins before Tues 22nd
Attached Image


adr and a couple of mini levels.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,608
  • Jan 21, 2019 5:08pm Jan 21, 2019 5:08pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} Ikdenk My motto is : ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE PERFECT ENTRIES......I dont need a perfect entry to be successful please look at the capture of the spreadsheet below, this spreadsheet is the frequency distribution list of all moves from at least 8 to 40 pips before a retracement of 8 pips minimum. the list show the last 5495 moves from july 1 2018, to last friday so basically it covers all type of market conditions ( range , up trend, down trend) you can see that a retracement up to 9 pips happen only 12.6% of the time : it means that if...
Thanks for your detailed explanation, much appreciated.

I only hope that my Dutch English is as clear as your French English.

There is obviously not a simple answer to the 'right' SL.

As a result of your earlier posts I now use the Neio-SweetSpot ("Donchian" channel) of 16 pips - showing the extremes high and low, together with the SemaphorPrice2 of 8 pips for scalping the 1 minute eurusd.

These provide good entry levels for small scalps in both directions.
  • #38,609
  • Jan 21, 2019 5:19pm Jan 21, 2019 5:19pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Thanks for your detailed explanation, much appreciated. I only hope that my Dutch English is as clear as your French English. There is obviously not a simple answer to the 'right' SL. As a result of your earlier posts I now use the Neio-SweetSpot ("Donchian" channel) of 16 pips - showing the extremes high and low, together with the SemaphorPrice2 of 8 pips for scalping the 1 minute eurusd. These provide good entry levels for small scalps in both directions.
Neio system is really pure gold
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #38,610
  • Jan 22, 2019 12:49am Jan 22, 2019 12:49am
Great work SB. A Wonderful post indeed and thanks for posting here.
  • #38,611
  • Jan 22, 2019 1:43am Jan 22, 2019 1:43am
morning.
t07-41
Attached Image

time of chart 07-38.
we have the adr High/low update.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,612
  • Jan 22, 2019 1:59am Jan 22, 2019 1:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ....PNG Size: 16 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,613
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:05am Jan 22, 2019 2:05am
cable t 08-04
drop to 12850 would be a nice start to the day.
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,614
  • Edited 2:45am Jan 22, 2019 2:31am | Edited 2:45am
(Edited this - actually was the 3 min charts, not 1 min as originally posted).

Had a small play pre-ko on The Monster this morning.

5 mins before the off and it looked like it may give something...and it did. Nothing spectacular (just +3) but I certainly didn't want to be holding it when the bell rang - and that was definitely a good call, as price reversed like a rocket and hit the heights.

DAX Momo-Scalp 3 min Chart +3

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-01-22 at 07.56.13 - Edited.png Size: 55 KB


Out

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  • #38,615
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:34am Jan 22, 2019 2:34am
t 08-33

Cable.
08-00 15 bar Low broke and then retraced,
Nothing stopping us trading a retrace trade. if it fails we lose less, or we can make extra??????
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,616
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:46am Jan 22, 2019 2:46am
Edited my post above - should have been 3 min charts, not 1 min.
  • #38,617
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:51am Jan 22, 2019 2:51am
Quoting billytt
t 08-33 Cable. 08-00 15 bar Low broke and then retraced, Nothing stopping us trading a retrace trade. if it fails we lose less, or we can make extra??????
it did not work this time.
using that retrace trade, we would not of lost as much.
The low break failed but high break was ok.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,618
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:52am Jan 22, 2019 2:52am
Things to do, catch you later.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38,619
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:57am Jan 22, 2019 2:57am
Quoting billytt
Things to do, catch you later.
Have a good one, Billy. Snowing here!!!
  • #38,620
  • Jan 22, 2019 3:09am Jan 22, 2019 3:09am
Quoting billytt
t 08-33 Cable. 08-00 15 bar Low broke and then retraced, Nothing stopping us trading a retrace trade. if it fails we lose less, or we can make extra??????
Indeed!

The Low was a 00 number. Do you have stats on how far it usually retraces when the prev break is shorter than 5? Same 10?
Buy low, sell high.
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