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Just for my reference

  • #61
  • Edited Jan 22, 2019 12:35am Jan 21, 2019 11:12pm | Edited Jan 22, 2019 12:35am
AU Reference
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  • #62
  • Jan 22, 2019 12:38am Jan 22, 2019 12:38am
Quoting squawk
Index reference Index I have had two reference levels for testing and think the one above is still to be tested but market into current area should be strong and may look to try some shorts. Looking for strong rotation back to Bonds when Index sees 28ish and bonds retest 3's. Just thoughts. {image} {image} {image} {image}
This area should be interesting to watch for possible short this week. I will be waiting for a confirmation to short.
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  • #63
  • Jan 22, 2019 5:07am Jan 22, 2019 5:07am
Thank you Mark continuing this thread. This is the place for REAL analyses for REAL trading. More people in FF should find its value and visit this thread regularly......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #64
  • Jan 22, 2019 5:26am Jan 22, 2019 5:26am
Quoting squawk
{quote} This area should be interesting to watch for possible short this week. I will be waiting for a confirmation to short. {image} {image} {image}
This may sound like a voodoo science but anyway it has some divergence with VIX and I think it could give some downside pressure too. I have used this kind of divergence charts for more than a year and I find some value on it....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #65
  • Jan 22, 2019 5:32am Jan 22, 2019 5:32am
This is for WTI.... yes, yes divergence is hindsight view.
I have decided not to trade commodities except gold from this new year. It's too much extreme in my view.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #66
  • Jan 22, 2019 5:49am Jan 22, 2019 5:49am
Quoting heispark
Thank you Mark continuing this thread. This is the place for REAL analyses for REAL trading. More people in FF should find its value and visit this thread regularly......
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  • #67
  • Jan 22, 2019 5:52am Jan 22, 2019 5:52am
Quoting heispark
{quote} This may sound like a voodoo science but anyway it has some divergence with VIX and I think it could give some downside pressure too. I have used this kind of divergence charts for more than a year and I find some value on it.... {image}
Not something I use but if it been working for you then why not.
  • #68
  • Jan 23, 2019 1:46am Jan 23, 2019 1:46am
I want one of these...

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  • #69
  • Jan 23, 2019 2:00am Jan 23, 2019 2:00am
Quoting squawk
I want one of these... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kwq6kAeR4mA
Cool. I like this one too.....
Inserted Video
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #70
  • Edited 5:38am Jan 24, 2019 4:47am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting squawk
AU Reference {image} {image}
Reference AU completing the close. Closed out most and have final to 705. At 705 looking to open up some longs on AN.
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  • #71
  • Jan 24, 2019 7:52pm Jan 24, 2019 7:52pm
AN short term entry into Longs still think longer to go down for AU but will try here for some positions.
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  • #72
  • Jan 25, 2019 3:44pm Jan 25, 2019 3:44pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Reference AU completing the close. Closed out most and have final to 705. At 705 looking to open up some longs on AN. {image} {image}
Target not reached here and taken out at BE.
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  • #73
  • Jan 25, 2019 4:00pm Jan 25, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting squawk
AN short term entry into Longs still think longer to go down for AU but will try here for some positions. {image} {image}
This is a long term trade but Short term entry held the lows. This one could take some time to play out. The NU and AU comparison in valuation from my view is out but the Kiwi valuation against the cross rates has not made sense for the last 12 months.

Just like the Kiwi 50 index! which is in my opinion is the most overvalued Index in the G10. When the index finally corrects then the Kiwi has a big correction on the crosses coming.

Graphs below are comparisons of NU/AU and Kiwi Index 50/NA
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  • #74
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:00pm Mar 1, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting squawk
Reference for UJ trade - US10 Yields correlation with UJ has been high and highlights reasons for UJ current trades. {image}
UJ out of all longs as think we are closing in on final stage here. looking for some consolidation prior to looking for shorts at these areas.
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  • #75
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:02pm Mar 1, 2019 3:02pm
Quoting squawk
Index reference Index I have had two reference levels for testing and think the one above is still to be tested but market into current area should be strong and may look to try some shorts. Looking for strong rotation back to Bonds when Index sees 28ish and bonds retest 3's. Just thoughts. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Update index closing in.
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  • #76
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:06pm Mar 1, 2019 3:06pm
10y all going to shuffle in sink but bonds seems a little higher above yet.
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  • #77
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:14pm Mar 1, 2019 3:14pm
NC without a doubt has been one of my most frustrating trades last year. Outlines the challenges when trying to trade a trend on cross commodity pairs when it gets stuck in price range. thin price still below.
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  • #78
  • Mar 6, 2019 2:54am Mar 6, 2019 2:54am
Although current fundamental data and sentiment of AUD is dismal, I think AUD will go up sooner or later and it will be a huge move........
2Y Yield spread looks bottoming out. Any ideas?
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #79
  • Mar 6, 2019 3:31pm Mar 6, 2019 3:31pm
Quoting heispark
Although current fundamental data and sentiment of AUD is dismal, I think AUD will go up sooner or later and it will be a huge move........ 2Y Yield spread looks bottoming out. Any ideas? {image}
Not sure on this one but I am waiting for some signs to trade it against the Kiwi. Would not be surprised to see the zero rate coming to Aus but think thats all Dependant on housing and future employment scenario, you will see it in the 2y, seems to be holding onto the 2 rates cuts scenario at the moment. theres a election coming in next few months and cant see Aussie moving back up, at least until the election is over.

Waiting watching.....
  • #80
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:09pm Mar 7, 2019 3:09pm
UC One I have my eyes on for above short.
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