(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

EURJPY bid is trying to absorb the supply, watching futures on euro and yen for any heads up on absorption. Pullback leg in formation on M1 at supply line.

EURJPY target baked, got break even out, solid play but thin volatility is not worth being aggressive.

Short GBPUSD.

GBPUSD short covered, done for day. Big soaker offloaded long there most likely, swiping trough the demand like knife trough butter.

I am short now AUDUSD .7125 SL-5 TP15

USDJPY in play.

USDJPY took 2.5 R.

loss

Thin markets again today, not much worth keeping eye on other than GBPUSD.

In play, long.

GBPUSD long sold. Two bounces,bid pressed strong on third dip - failed for a bit and then picked up again as it was expected.

Still no change to this, just patiently waiting for bid to show up and then stack some longs along the proper setup (supply takeout or pullback leg), this remains likely for whole week.

all or nothing lol

Some sum ups of the rules for supply takeout trading:

Do not rush the entry, always enter near the taken supply line as possible. If candle has poped strongly trough supply dont be sory for not being in, rather embrace the fact that PA behaviour is confirming strong takeout, now wait for quick retrace to enter with limits. If it doesnt retrace and it just keeps going, then wait for bounce entry. Patience, poor entries and exits on this or any other play for that matter will not yield results.




Aim for setups that show presence of liquidity. The most liquid plays will stand out from the rest. They will have tight spreads, even crosses around the time when sup takeout play is in formation (make sure to use ECN brokers, otherwise if you use spread-making broker you might be unable to tell when MM is creating the liquidity!).
Also the volatility will be decent, where structure will have depth of 5 pips or more. Observe price action structures and distances / micro gaps between candles to start to separate liquid setups from non liquid.



Stick as much as possible to setups with even supply , do not rush into setups with uneven high distribution as liquidity rules and order flow is differently positioned.

Follow as much as possible setups with at least 3 highs in structure, the more the better, practice to size stronger on denser setups and a bit less on less denser setups.

If you spot targeted clerout, pop up volume or use futures to see if volume confirms actual stop clearout, it should be obvious in most cases with strong vol spike going trough the lows and then sharp reversal. Watching tape to see if limit buy orders were really placed bellow the lows (of the MM that was pushing the clearout) is helpful.


Capital size matters, the plays distributed on this thread vary from high edge plays to low edge (high edge: short squeezes, A grade weakness on trash runner, inflationary currencies on short side, pump and dumps medium edge: suply takeout and pullback leg.....). Certain equity plays (high edge) are totally ok to trade with 2k accounts and build the size onwards, while medium edge plays like supply takeouts require at least 2 if not 3 times the capital size to begin with, this is due to R extraction on average per 100 plays. With smaller accounts its important not to rush, be patient and build gradually with proper realistic goal in mind (noone learns proper edged plays in markets within 1 month and then sails onwards without the bumps). Without proper realistic expectations and disciplined exeuction everything else will eventually fall into water as it does for most that try.

Good stuff janpec, similar to how I am trading the pivots, like the idea of micro supply and demand on your charts. Did you also make the observation that the past 4 weeks or so it was hard to go for intraday targets more than 10 pips with tight stops? I had many plays that might yield 2 R stopped at BE, hence having whole month kind of break evenish. I've noticed that during this period I had been much better of by just taking 8 or 10, regardless of the 1:1 RR ratio it would have created.

King of all trash has awoken once again: STAF . As always when this one pops the short is always on the menu. Up currently on bs news. It only held once on PR news when it short squeezed hard, other than that it failed each time. Very simple scenario on this one, just waiting patiently for A grade weaknesses to short ballz in and shorting small size on pops shorting the tops of extended spikes. Basically the same scenario of play since 2017, every time.

Company needs cash (dilution or offering possible-supply), is struggling to be listed on NASDAQ (the only bullish catalyst as they need to pump the price and hold it) , has warrants (supply), has large amount of bagholders in 3,00 area (supply)....with one word: supply.

Hickson thats a very difficult one to answer. The thing is you need to understand well how macro play moves that you are trading with from micro, only if you do then you know which TP method should you pull of (take few R or many R), because that should dictate it,....however macro plays require deep learning to get their behaviours properly right. In case of what i trade on current Brexit flows i am far far away from having any historical perspective on what to expect from how should price intraday flow in next few weeks, i know the aproximate max boundries it can go, but what matters are consistent flows in order to figure which R TP method you need to pick .

My rule is always: If i have studied in depth the macro play (1 year or more) and i have 100s of plays of data to base my expectations on, then i will go with larger R Tp method, if i do not have such as in this case of Brexit flows always go by less R method, unless the exception was week before on Friday when tape was showing on pound that bid was clearly rushing in, but that really was the only heads up.

Hopefuly that makes sense.

I know it is not easy to answer en passant, just was interested in your opinion. It makes sense to have the macro view for the moves. I try to get this from the general Trend on daily and H4, for minor plays H1. Generally, if the Trend is strong (for example in october) you can really catch 3, 4 , 5 R with small stops on these breakout plays.

However, situation has changed: Trend atm (picking cable as an example) is not as clear as back in october, hence with increased volatility, you either have to adjust your stops or go for smaller targets. At least this is what I found. I agree that there is no answer that deals with every scenario.

Let's say we have adapt to the market in any situation and expect change.

SES pump , short 1,60. Target 1,20ish

A play might be forming here, but I think it is better to look for a pull back first.