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How to lose money

  • #81
  • Edited 4:42am Jan 20, 2019 4:32am | Edited 4:42am
Focus on Lower timeframes.
Expecting to win each trade so not having plans for BE atleast.
Forcing entries usually due to use of affirmative indicators (indicators that will almost always and easily concur with the traders bias especially over multiple timeframes) .
Improper or no exit strategy i.e no attention to exits like to entries.
High entry lots relative to Accounts size.
Not being aware of news.
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #82
  • Jan 20, 2019 4:43am Jan 20, 2019 4:43am
There are so many indi's available and one see an absolute plethora of them being used or mentioned on these boards. One can't use them all although I have seen charts with so many on, one could hang an image of it in the Tate gallery!

So which ones stand out as indespensible? Well arguably, EMA's are most defintely a must IMHO. Why? Well if you don't know where the dynamic support and resistance areas are, you're trading with one hand behind your back! Then one needs the horizontal support and resistance areas which are usually BRN levels and often daily pivot level and S1/S2. There are indi's readily available to handle these demands and if you don't have them on your chart you're trading blind I'm afraid.
  • #83
  • Jan 20, 2019 10:49am Jan 20, 2019 10:49am
Quoting jmtini
I would like to clear up a misconception as far as the forex market and forex trading is concerned. It differs to trading stocks. When trading stocks you are trading one commodity or entity. Thus the difference between buying or selling may be relevant as often selling is more beneficial due to panic/fear factor. However when it comes to buying/selling forex, there is generally no difference or advantage to whether you buy or sell. Taking GBPJPY as an example, JPY can be very strong one day and very weak the next thus buying the pair can be just...
You nailed it bro...that is the primary reason why I have been saying all along. Price in Spot FX is not everything. The anatomy of Price in itself is a variable defined by two more variables. Any strategy (pick any one) on time series (with OHLC) will not work consistently because of it's competing and contradicting nature of intrinsic and extrinsic forces that "govern" the market structure. Anyone who thinks this SpotFX market is not Governed via strict policies and controls is a complete noob.

I will say this one more time.... In Spot FX, market making style of trading (scalping at microstructure level) via consistent application of a "Constant" and Universal tactical technique is the only way to trade a single pair. We will always need one more thing (either multiple strategy portfolio) or baskets to defeat the negative sum game. If there is success found, it is just a matter of time for a black swan to occur (by design) to shake out the consistent so called winners in this market.

It's just application of common Sense. There's just aren't many professional funds trading only currency markets. They are used in comprehensive portfolio management strategies but not many are PURE in currencies only...and those that are out there have some hooks into insider information (order flow etc) that we don't.

I may sound negative Nelly but it is the hard truth that not many are willing to accept after spending decades on failed strategies and listening to their gurus.

I have said this many times so no point in leaving this post hanging on this wasteland.
No need for anyone to respond or discuss either. If you are winning, ignore and continue doing what works until It does not. If you are losing, screw Spot FX...you will never WIN!!!! No one (except me lol) has your best interest in mind so dump your guru and start thinking on your own terms!

I will delete this post as I am no longer involved in Spot FX.
Staying in my lane...
  • #84
  • Jan 20, 2019 11:11am Jan 20, 2019 11:11am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You nailed it bro...that is the primary reason why I have been saying all along. Price in Spot FX is not everything. The anatomy of Price in itself is a variable defined by two more variables. Any strategy (pick any one) on time series (with OHLC) will not work consistently because of it's competing and contradicting nature of intrinsic and extrinsic forces that "govern" the market structure. Anyone who thinks this SpotFX market is not Governed via strict policies and controls is a complete noob. I will say this one more time.... In Spot...

" Scalping at microstructure level via consistent application of a "Constant" and Universal tactical technique "

Sounds like a good topic by itself in the Trading discussion forum. Anyone trading like that?
  • #85
  • Jan 20, 2019 11:19am Jan 20, 2019 11:19am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} " Scalping at microstructure level via consistent application of a "Constant" and Universal tactical technique " Sounds like a good topic by itself in the Trading discussion forum. Anyone trading like that?
CrucialPoint!
Staying in my lane...
  • #86
  • Jan 20, 2019 11:43am Jan 20, 2019 11:43am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Sure but I am sure folks will repent my participation here. Anyways, I will share my perspective on why Divergence between "two calculated result set" derived from indicator values will never work. Divergence between one constant and one variable will work but between two calculated values derived from one variable i.e. Price can never work. It's a mathematical impossibility because both values will change on every pip (or tick since now I am into futures). Clearly, you are not the abstract or absolute guy so in my opinion, you are NOT trading...
Maybe you are too caught up in the technicalities of the mathematical definition (calculated result set derived , constant, variables, stuff like that). The definition of deviate is to turn aside or deviate, as from a path, practice, or plan. I suppose instead of RSI Divergence I could call this method "RSI Second-Value-Of-RSI-At-Second-High-Not-Equal-To-First-Price-High-Value-When-You-Would-Expect-It-To-Be-Based-On-Previous-Price-High-Condition"...but it just doesn't roll of the tongue as easily, ya know?!

You are 100% correct that the something else going on in my mind is "price interpretation triggered by Divergence"....but without that divergence in the RSI values (the turning aside from the path, practice, or plan) happening in the first place there would be nothing to interpret, so it is that RSI deviating that actually IS the root cause of the successful trade. Look at it like fishing: if you interpret splashes around a tree in the water as there being fish there and you make a decision based on that interpretation (I'm gonna go fish over there), there would be no interpretation (and thus no action taken) if the fish were not splashing to begin with...
  • #87
  • Jan 20, 2019 11:43am Jan 20, 2019 11:43am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} CrucialPoint!
A friend took a look at one of my demo statements and produced this graph to see if it is a profitable system. Just look at the red graph he said. I'm wondering if I am doing the Scalping at microstructure level via consistent application of a "Constant" and Universal tactical technique. If so, the brokers constrain such activity because they have fragile little home made servers that can't handle much more then a few lots here and there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #88
  • Jan 20, 2019 11:57am Jan 20, 2019 11:57am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Maybe you are too caught up in the technicalities of the mathematical definition (calculated result set derived , constant, variables, stuff like that). The definition of deviate is to turn aside or deviate, as from a path, practice, or plan. I suppose instead of RSI Divergence I could call this method "RSI Second-Value-Of-RSI-At-Second-High-Not-Equal-To-First-Price-High-Value-When-You-Would-Expect-It-To-Be-Based-On-Previous-Price-High-Condition"...but it just doesn't roll of the tongue as easily, ya know?! You are 100% correct that the...
Semantics I guess.... Looking at the splash and moving towards the tree does not get you the fish you want to catch.... It only gets you to narrow down your focus from the wide array from infinite possibilities involved and turns your attention into using all you have learnt over the years on how to catch that fish.... splash is experience and it is not what made you actually catch the fish.

Here's something else you might disagree to:

  1. Any strategy that involves more than 3 indicators (i.e. 3 moving average is considered one) will always fail
  2. Any strategy that takes EACH AND EVERY Buy and Sell Signal will always fail

These two actually came from CrucialPoint and validated as part of my own research. I really do not want to sound like a follower of CrucialPoint as I have only read about 20% of his posts (mostly his journal entries).

Staying in my lane...
  • #89
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:03pm Jan 20, 2019 12:03pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You are successful not because of Divergence setup or bollinger band or rsi or your deep understanding of it. You are successful because of your yrs of screentime watching one thing over and over and over and over again...…
While the years of screentime and watching patterns over and over and over allowed me to recognize those patterns that occurred consistently given the same conditions, the divergence setup was simply a result of that. When I taught my daughter to trade, she was successful using this pattern, not because of years of screentime (she had maybe a weeks worth), but because she learned to recognize the pattern and took advantage of the result of the pattern.

There is nothing magical about trading. You don't get bonus points for being able to calculate anything. Key words and tricky phrases mean nothing. You just need to learn what works and what doesn't.

In trading, no one is impressed with your IQ, people are impressed with your bank account!
  • #90
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:13pm Jan 20, 2019 12:13pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Here's something else you might disagree to: Any strategy that involves more than 3 indicators (i.e. 3 moving average is considered one) will always fail Any strategy that takes EACH AND EVERY Buy and Sell Signal will always fail
While I do agree with the concept of each of these, I just don't like to deal in absolutes ("Will always fail").

You do not have to be successful to say something doesn't work, but you DO have to be successful to say that something does!
  • #91
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:15pm Jan 20, 2019 12:15pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} While I do agree with the concept of each of these, I just don't like to deal in absolutes ("Will always fail"). You do not have to be successful to say something doesn't work, but you DO have to be successful to say that something does!
Well said!
Staying in my lane...
  • #92
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:17pm Jan 20, 2019 12:17pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} While the years of screentime and watching patterns over and over and over allowed me to recognize those patterns that occurred consistently given the same conditions, the divergence setup was simply a result of that. When I taught my daughter to trade, she was successful using this pattern, not because of years of screentime (she had maybe a weeks worth), but because she learned to recognize the pattern and took advantage of the result of the pattern. There is nothing magical about trading. You don't get bonus points for being able to calculate...
And personal attacks have begun... as always.
Time to leave.
Staying in my lane...
  • #93
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:18pm Jan 20, 2019 12:18pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Semantics I guess.... Looking at the splash and moving towards the tree does not get you the fish you want to catch.... It only gets you to narrow down your focus from the wide array from infinite possibilities involved and turns your attention into using all you have learnt over the years on how to catch that fish.... splash is experience and it is not what made you actually catch the fish. Here's something else you might disagree to: Any strategy that involves more than 3 indicators (i.e. 3 moving average is considered one) will always...

I disagree with both points 1 and 2 and if this CruucialPoiint, whoever they are, paid me enough money, I will disprove them in practicality because they are not looking at the whole picture when they make such claims.

1st point is easy though: If you have multiple indicators that more or less confirm each other, you might not have gone in using only one indicator but the more indicators that say the same thing, the better.
  • #94
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:44pm Jan 20, 2019 12:44pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I disagree with both points 1 and 2 and if this CruucialPoiint, whoever they are, paid me enough money, I will disprove them in practicality because they are not looking at the whole picture when they make such claims. 1st point is easy though: If you have multiple indicators that more or less confirm each other, you might not have gone in using only one indicator but the more indicators that say the same thing, the better.

99% of over 450 strategies I tested using OHLC data have proved this point..... they all work for a year or two but non worked more than 3+ yrs taking every buy/sell signal
Staying in my lane...
  • #95
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:05pm Jan 20, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} 99% of over 450 strategies I tested using OHLC data have proved this point..... they all work for a year or two but non worked more than 3+ yrs taking every buy/sell signal
Oh, making it tougher I see. Now 3 years is the bar. How about using percentages? 100 trades=100%. If an indicator gives 100 signals over 3 years, that is roughly a signal every 3 days. If another indicator gives those same number of signals over 30 days, are we on the same playing field? I guess we could fire off the second indicator every 3 days and execute the first signal it gives us then. All to satisfy some academics and their evaluation software. I guess scalping at microstructure level and trading over 3 years time period should be in total separate categories then. Those two are more than comparing apples and oranges.
  • #96
  • Edited 1:45pm Jan 20, 2019 1:08pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Here's something else you might disagree to: Any strategy that involves more than 3 indicators (i.e. 3 moving average is considered one) will always fail Any strategy that takes EACH AND EVERY Buy and Sell Signal will always fail
While I do agree with the concept of each of these, I just don't like to deal in absolutes ("Will always fail").

You do not have to be successful to say something doesn't work, but you DO have to be successful to say that something does!


I HAVE NO IDEA WHY THIS IS A DUPLICATE POST....
  • #97
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:32pm Jan 20, 2019 1:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} And personal attacks have begun... as always. Time to leave.
I'm sorry that you interpreted my comments when I said "you" and "your" that I was speaking to you personally....those were generalities to go along with the fact that my daughter, a new trader, could trade by just focusing on the main subject of trading (making money) rather than the mathematical side of proofing points.

I apologize if you felt like any of that was a personal attack, as certainly none was meant to be. But honestly, if you felt "the personal attacks have begun....as always", perhaps it is time for some introspective analysis to determine why they occur frequently enough as to be expected.....
  • #98
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:40pm Jan 20, 2019 1:40pm
I think meteorologists should go find themselves different jobs if they can't predict the weather correctly every moment of every day for 3 years in a row (at least 5.5/7X156). Good thing this CricialPoint people are not into judging meteorologists performance.
  • #99
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:06pm Jan 20, 2019 2:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
they all work for a year or two but non worked more than 3+ yrs taking every buy/sell signal
The strategies didn't stop working -- the data patterns changed. @VEEFX -- as you know, algorithmic strategies combine one or more indicators. Indicators are simple algebraic formulas with one or more constants -- e.g. y = mx + b. The algebraic equation for a straight line doesn't go bad -- neither do the indicators. But what *does* change is the data. Those 'm' and 'b' constants that seemed to work 3 years ago need to be recalibrated using more recent data. When you recalibrate those indicator settings then your strategies will again perform as they had before. "Data is king" -- i.e. the current data patterns are what change and this is what affects the performance of those algebraic equations (and not the simple mathematical formulas behind each indicator).
  • #100
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:47pm Jan 20, 2019 2:47pm
How to lose money? Buy High sell low right?

Honestly the concept behind trading is easy. Buy when price will rise and sell when price will descend. You just need to identify a method that can do this for you. Thats the tricky part & it changes for each account/person.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
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