EURUSD only

Guys & Gals;
i gave the riddle to illustrate thta humans do not choose well when confronted with new information.
If you are very interested in why switching to door nr 2 is the right choice, please read this:
https://betterexplained.com/articles...-hall-problem/

What i was not trying to do is start a discussion about the riddle.
This always happens because most humans can not fathom the probability of the riddle.

My goal was to help Moty see that sometimes its good to exit with a loss when new information tells you to.
Holding on for dear life and hoping things will turn out good is a sure way to lose.

thats the last I have to say about all of this

Analysis for week 4,
Salability
Possible revote in the 1.13500 price of the great Quarter, If it exceeds the small Quarter 1.13750, up to the trend line with support or residence of the harmonic figure point (B),
at this point it has two possibilities rebound to the large point of the Quarter 1.14000,
with return to the trend line with possible arrival at the small Quarter 1.14250,
hence possible fall to search for 1.13250 or 100% Fibonacci.

Buying possibility
Possible revote in the 1.13500 price of the great Quarter, if it exceeds the small Quarter 1.13750, up to the trend line with support or residence of the harmonic figure point (B),
if you cross the line continue bullish positions to the midpoint 1.14800, of the big quarters of the month of January, with a bearish revote to the small great Quarter 1.14250,
coinciding with the trend line, with possible bullish rebound to find the great Quarter 1.14800,
that this point coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci in buying

I think I will simply buy the close of the next strong H4 bull trend or reversal candle (range >= 30 pips, low < 1.3400, close > 1.3500, initial sl = low + range/4) and wait 1 week.

Hey Groper,
I agree with the statistical edge offered. The issue at hand right now is not that Moty can hang out until he gets out without a loss but that Moty trades during the week and pockets profits everyday of the week. Like YOU!!!

There is a serious pattern here:

Moty enters the market, three scenarios then ensue:

1. Market goes his way and tags his target
2. Market goes his way but doesn't tag his target by couple pips
3. Market goes against him

In scenario 1, Moty gets out and enters immediately in the opposite direction and then he faces the 3 potential scenarios all over.
In scenario 2, Moty doesn't put the trade to BE or take partial profit, it is all or nothing even if the target is missed by 2 pips.
In scenario 3, Moty is frozen until his account blows up (he doesn't use SLs) or he HOPES for market to come back and he may or may not get out break even or with some profit

In scenario 2 and 3, Moty doesn't make a pip, can not trade AT ALL! could last a week until the account gets blown. you know what he does? He fills the forum with wishful charts where he depicts what the market should do. And of course does the market do what he wants? NO!! most of the time.

And yet with a borderline mad scientist fury, he posts and posts and posts a gazillions charts DXY, EU..weekly, daily, monthly down to the 1min and 5min.....ALL a reflection of his emotional distress. and you know what is sad, nothing works according to his charts, he thinks market should go back up market drops another 50 pips.....but Moty is frozen, determined to dig his heels against the trend. No SL, no humility to admit he is wrong early on and get out with small loss and try to analyze correctly and take a new shot. Nope: "I am perfect, I know what the market is gonna do....you guys just watch how amazing of a trader I am" until he falls flat on his face for the 20th time in a month. This loop goes on and on....days weeks months. Very painful to watch! When he makes money here and there...there is no limit to his joy and he wrongly reinforces the merit of his trading strategy....only to lose big time the following trade.

Any trader worth his salt would see that this is trading kamikaze style (he calls it all or nothing). So technically he does make analytical mistakes, but doesn't see them early on (so he lacks that skill) and even if he sees them he goes into HOPE mode that the market will still bail him out, and we all know how that ends 99% of the time.

So now that is the technical issue with his trading methodology. Now onto what he uses this forum and his fellow traders for.

Like anybody in severe denial, he exhibits desire of validation and he gets it here and there from people who are not aware of his pattern (FYI I too fell for it...encouraged him at first then with time I realized I wasn't doing him any favors if anything I am hurting him by condoning his behavior)

For people that are aware of his issue, he ignores them anytime they point his issue (another sign of severe denial)

He does welcome all the traders that keep asking him to consider a different way of trading (that's good attention)

So on this forum he has a selective strategy:

1. Floods it with charts when in emotional distress and trying to prove he didn't make a mistake (while everybody else is trading with the trend and pocketing pips, he is borderline spamming the thread because he is in major drawdown)
2. Gets the attention from people and comfort when he fails (very often)
3. Gets the accolades when he gets it right (once in a while) and he wants to be perceived as the comeback kid!! what trader wants that title anyway? beats me!!!
4. Ignores anybody that provide constructive criticism

I for one, posting this to balance the harm that I have done to him in encouraging a kamikaze behavior in the past. I need to right that wrong.
And I am sincerely hoping this brother sees reality soon.

In the meantime guys do him a huuuuge favor don't condone his behavior any longer...we are just delaying the moment of truth for him and who knows...this could go on for yeaaaaars more!

Ok i stand corrected - thanks for the link.
i understand the problem now and agree with the statistical math behind it. However i think it is still a bad analogy for trading and taking a position long or short and deciding whether to switch direction.

If the probabilities behind monty hall parodox held true in trading - all you would need to do is take a random long or short. Then when it when it goes bad, trade the other way with a larger lot size to cover the initial loser and suddenly youll have an edge with higher probability on the second trade. is it that easy?

I see trading as what happens when Monty Goes wild;
"Monty goes wild
Monty reveals the goat, and then has a seizure. He closes the door and mixes all the prizes, including your door. Does switching help?
No. Monty started to filter but never completed it — you have 3 random choices again, just like in the beginning."

I see this is more like what happens in trading... as the environment is dynamic and there is always new information with every new candle, and time never stops. But the paradox can only hold true assuming both positions are opened from the same point in time and you can improve your chances by switching if only the price were the same. However we cannot go back in time to trade the other way from that same point in time (or price) and make use of the information we gained... instead we can only take a position from the current point in time and the current price which differs from the original now that we are in drawdown... so we are looking at a different set of doors now no? If not - how do we use the new information to improve our trading probability once were in a drawdown situation, beyond that which we started with despite the new price information gained?

C’mon guys back to EURUSD shall we...

Depending on whether we open later with a gap and if so, which way, I think we’d first revisit Friday’s low which makes a nice sweet support at 1.1350, or maybe even lower at the 1.133x region. After that we could bounce up to tag the 1.1366/1.1371 area which is where I’d like to watch. A nice down move from there can bring back all the parity talk everyone was yelling about during Xmas.

all speculative of course. fun to make guesses but trade what you see not what you think the market should do.

well i know ill be long early asia for a few scalps in the low volatility period By the time Frankfurk session opens ill be out. EU session could go either way but i favour long again unless something odd happens in asia with china data and provided the nikkei doesnt tank.
Also we have china data in asia session - this will affect the risk sentiment if it surprises - something to keep an eye on and get out quick if the data goes against - its gravity will not be felt in full until EUR session.
By the time NY opens, depending where the price is by then - im betting somewhere between 13.6-13.9 if things go to plan- it could get knocked down to low 1.13s or break back above 1.14. All depends on what the other currencies and indexs are doing and how china data prints.
Look for risk sentiment based off the S+P500, nikkei and the Risk currencies and commodities like gold and oil. Risk on - Euro will gain 1.14 back, Risk off, EU could go below 1.13 - although i dont see that happening until the following day assuming its risk off... my 2c

Hi bro if I may ask, how would you correlate the Nikkei with EURUSD (ie whether it tanks or not). I would imagine it would affect Yen pairs but not so much the Euro or the Dollar? Thanks in advance.

So EurUsd chose option 2 lol lol
recalculating. my potential lower limit is no longer 1.1335 but 1.1315 not in a straight shot of course, we will have to go up to 1.1375 or slightly above, then go down.
Of course I will take more profits at 1.1335 (there should be a bounce around that level) and see what tracks the Boss leaves for us to reassess.

Green pips to all!

I have support at 1.1361/57 if we go below we might get the full Monty

Its a reflection of the risk sentiment. Equities go down when risk off and this usually has the reverse effect on the yen mostly as you pointed out - but also the USD and CHF to a lesser extent.

So if we get risk off - adds weight to USD strength and thus EURUSD can go down...

A trigger for this could be the china data. We have GDP, investment, industrial production and retails sales on monday asia.

The risk sentiment is largely driven by whats happening with china and the potential guage on worldwide growth - which many are worried is slowing. China data is a good indicator for this to guage the potential magnitude of the global economy and markets will be watching it closely. I would not trade against the data if it surprises one way or the other...

Thanks! Have a great trading week ahead!

Also DXY broke descending resistance line on 4H chart, now in breakout movement high which we saw the beginning of on friday.

Gov shutdown holding back USD - otherwise we would already be be lower than we are now IMHO.

Beginning of asia will be quiet, likely no gap - all eyes waiting on china data, very flat market. Then If china data is very red - definitely going short and targeting 1.13, and below in extension the following day... Green china data - ill stick with long scalps in coming days until we get closer to 1.15...

If the gov shutdown ends, it will be risk on, eu up. If you look at EU for every shutdown in the last 10 years, it's always gone up afterwards.

I hope there is an exhaustion gap because of the shutdown and eu just flies. That's be great !

My analysis on EURUSD

Another interesting dynamic is rate rises. Both the US and EU have had their economic expectations lower in the last 1-2 months. The question each, which is relatively worse off ?

ECB's next meeting will be crucial, but until then we can expect a lot of uncertainty and IMO ranging.

I'm thinking 1.139x zone as a possible short entry.

After that Crabs at 1.1335x, no crystal ball but ideal zone for retracement trade long.

Weekly is printing engulfing so would think continuation after retracement to previous week high maybe 1.1472x.
Maybe buy 1.135x after impulse and break of TL.

Grtz

Im glad we agree on the monty riddle now

The riddle was really meant to describe risk/reward assesment...
In the end i just wanted to convey that risk management is very important...
Your anology of "monty going wild" is what im getting at....

peace

your, analysis may be good.
I have a similar analysis. I reached a similar conclusion.
but i am looking forward to touching 1.1330 first.
be green.

Closed my shorts Friday before close. Going to be looking for longs. Probably will be back above 1.15 before too long