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EURUSD only

  • #74,021
  • Jan 19, 2019 2:41am Jan 19, 2019 2:41am
I'm already looking for the Northern Opportunity.
I think, this trendline stops the falling.
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  • #74,022
  • Jan 19, 2019 3:05am Jan 19, 2019 3:05am
Quoting Moty
H4+ 5M i said yesterday that i getting out at 1.13990 , and once again i did the opposite {image} {image}
Hi Moty, here is my answer: By accepting what is, we can improve. Food for thought.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #74,023
  • Jan 19, 2019 5:02am Jan 19, 2019 5:02am
Quoting Moty
h1 {image}
Hi Moty,
In my opinion it was a mistake to took any trade in EURUSD last week.
The reason is that at the moment we have very unfavorable market conditions.
I am a big fan of the EMA 20 (close) on different timeframes because you see nearly always some price reaction (like Dynamic S/R).
Look at the chart (Blue = EMA 20 D1, Red = EMA 20 H4, Green EMA 20 H1, D1 and H4 are time shifted for H1)
When price is between the EMAs the market gets choppy .
When price If the EMAs are showing different directions then conditions are even more bad.
When price is goes near the EMA 20 D1 into a range then I think chances to make money are better when you play roulette.
Now you can wait for a pullback near 1.3000 or that the price goes beyond EMA 20 D1.
But be careful because the bears could probably waiting for your buy order (see 3 Jan).
So it's more secure to buy the first pullback after the EMA 20 D1 breaks.
The problem is EURUSD has the tendency to stay in a his range for days and weeks.
If you want to trade, the I would recommend a currency pair with better market conditions.
For example I traded last week mainly YEN pairs.
The market conditions are either not perfect but good enough to make profit.
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  • #74,024
  • Edited 6:16am Jan 19, 2019 5:39am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting Moty
h1 {image}
Hey Moty i think alot of good trading advice has been given to you so I wont go there.
But here is an interesting probability riddle that should help you:

You are on a game show and there are 3 doors. One door has a car the other 2 are empty.
Lest say you choose door nr.1 ....now the game show host opens door nr. 3 to show you there is nothing there.
And the host asks you: do you want to change your mind from door 1 to door 2?

There are many websites and books about this, but the correct choice is to switch to nr.2
The reason is that you have received new statistical information: door nr2 now includes the probability value that was once door nr3's...

You tend to hold on to door nr.1 no matter what, even when the host gives you free new information.....

All of this is to tell you this:
If you wish to keep your strategy of opening a counter trade as soon as you exit your trend trade.....
and then Price gives you confirming dependable new information against your choice.....
Probability dictates you should exit.

IN essence: you need risk management.
You literally have no risk management now.
surely you know that in the long run the market will always beat you if you do that?
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #74,025
  • Jan 19, 2019 6:14am Jan 19, 2019 6:14am
hi moty
I'm trying to help you.
if a strategy is not good then it should not be used.
don't trade until you find a workable good method.
peace
  • #74,026
  • Jan 19, 2019 6:26am Jan 19, 2019 6:26am
Quoting tiborf71
hi moty I'm trying to help you. if a strategy is not good then it should not be used. don't trade until you find a workable good method. peace
And Always test in a Simulator first. Test test test. When successful then go live.
  • #74,027
  • Jan 19, 2019 7:24am Jan 19, 2019 7:24am
Quoting knkie
{quote} Hey Moty i think alot of good trading advice has been given to you so I wont go there. But here is an interesting probability riddle that should help you: You are on a game show and there are 3 doors. One door has a car the other 2 are empty. Lest say you choose door nr.1 ....now the game show host opens door nr. 3 to show you there is nothing there. And the host asks you: do you want to change your mind from door 1 to door 2? There are many websites and books about this, but the correct choice is to switch to nr.2 The reason is that you...
Very niiiice Knkie. I thank you for the effort and taking the time, very altruistic of you...and many others in this forum too.

Waiting to see what's gonna click...
  • #74,028
  • Jan 19, 2019 10:28am Jan 19, 2019 10:28am
Price on trend line low point now Time for buy !



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velolthomas@gmail
  • #74,029
  • Jan 19, 2019 5:56pm Jan 19, 2019 5:56pm
I think there will be some resolution to US shutdown this week (there will need to be actually, otherwise all furloughed workers get automatically fired).

This is likely to cause a risk off rally and a huge upswing in eu.

I just hope it goes to 1.133 or so first, would be great for me.
  • #74,030
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:41am Jan 20, 2019 1:41am
Quoting Olwatosin1
{quote} I would like to add that from experience, people dont think much in terms of percentages, they think more in terms of absolute numbers - profit or loss. And I a very guilty of that. It s the reason why I may close a trade in profit early when it should have been left to run or close a loosing trade when it has not hit the stop and has a good chance of reversal. What I have done which works for me is to trade constant lot on a small account. So I link the small account to the big account so that I dont get to see the trades on the big account....
i do exactly the same thing, for exactly the same reasons it works
  • #74,031
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:46am Jan 20, 2019 1:46am
If the next daily candle isnt bearish on the Dxy EU is headed to atleast below 1.10. failure above 1.15 meant that bulls left the building and the price action on weekly looks really bearish.
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  • #74,032
  • Edited 4:57am Jan 20, 2019 2:01am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting knkie
{quote} Hey Moty i think alot of good trading advice has been given to you so I wont go there. But here is an interesting probability riddle that should help you: You are on a game show and there are 3 doors. One door has a car the other 2 are empty. Lest say you choose door nr.1 ....now the game show host opens door nr. 3 to show you there is nothing there. And the host asks you: do you want to change your mind from door 1 to door 2? There are many websites and books about this, but the correct choice is to switch to nr.2 The reason is that you...
This is a poor analogy to the situation here - yes the probabilities have changed for door number 2 once the new information is given - but so they have also changed for door no 1 aswell!!!

Moty - ill give you (and everyone else) a little statistical edge for free here... there is a 98% probability that a long position on EU when NOT taken at the weekly range extremes, will come back into profit within 8-9 calendar days, and will not exceed a drawdown of more than 200pips. This is especially true in the ranging market which we have now. This is a statistic intrinsic to the EU pair right now and you can make money trading it in either direction!
So basically, provided you have enough margin to cover DD of 200 pips per position, and you take a position near 1.14 as Moty has done which is near the middle of the 1.15-1.13 range EU is trapped in for now, with some patience it will come back up (or down), no matter what you bias is or no matter how many other people make money from longs or shorts between now and then
just last week scalps all around the 1.14 level;
  • #74,033
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:20am Jan 20, 2019 2:20am
it seems to me.
if these usd, rate hike are regular.
dampens its rise in eurusd
longer term.
  • #74,034
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:43am Jan 20, 2019 2:43am
if I had to choose in the long run. i would rather, bear, the good direction.
but this is just my opinion.
  • #74,035
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:45am Jan 20, 2019 2:45am
Quoting groper
{quote} This is a poor analogy to the situation here - yes the probabilities have changed for door number 2 once the new information is given - but so they have also changed for door no 1 aswell!!! Moty - ill give you (and everyone else) a little statistical edge for free here... there is a 98% probability that a long position on EU when NOT taken at the weekly range extremes, will come back into profit within 8-9 calendar days, and will not exceed a drawdown of more than 200pips. This is especially true in the ranging market which we have now....
nope, door nr1 has the same probability.
It was 1/3 and it stays 1/3.
Door nr2 is now worth 2/3

Read up on your probability, you dont seem to understand it.
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #74,036
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:47am Jan 20, 2019 2:47am
Quoting knkie
{quote} nope, door nr1 has the same probability. It was 1/3 and it stays 1/3. Door nr2 is now worth 2/3 Read up on your probability, you dont seem to understand it.
Excuse me??? LMAO...

They were all 1/3 in the beginning - then door number 2 became 1/2 after the new information. But door number 1 ALSO became 1/2 once door 3 was excluded!
Are you sure you understand it!? lol...
  • #74,037
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:49am Jan 20, 2019 2:49am
Quoting groper
{quote} Excuse me??? LMAO... They were all 1/3 in the beginning - then door number 2 became 1/2 after the new information. But door number 1 ALSO became 1/2 once door 3 was excluded! Are you sure you understand it!? lol...
this is not the thread for this discussion.
As i said before, there are many books written on this issue.
Most humans can not grasp it, and use the explanation you are giving as well.

Read up on it, its very interesting.
Once you grasp it you will know why.

edit:
just for you, here is a website explaining the probability issue.
dont follow your intuition, use the math.
https://betterexplained.com/articles...-hall-problem/
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #74,038
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:56am Jan 20, 2019 2:56am
1.2 doors 50-50%

new information came in vain
  • #74,039
  • Jan 20, 2019 3:12am Jan 20, 2019 3:12am
Quoting knkie
{quote} nope, door nr1 has the same probability. It was 1/3 and it stays 1/3. Door nr2 is now worth 2/3 Read up on your probability, you dont seem to understand it.
lets put it this way no matter which door you choose lets say you choose door 1. there is a 100% chance that there is no car in either door 2 or door 3 as there are 2 doors without cars and you can only choose 1. So there is technically no new information its just mind games.
  • #74,040
  • Jan 20, 2019 3:22am Jan 20, 2019 3:22am
the theory is that you do not choose well. first attempt
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