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  • #61
  • Jan 19, 2019 1:35am Jan 19, 2019 1:35am
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} No, I never said I could predict the markets. I said you can have a feel for where price might go... based on your intuition and based on what you see on the charts. That's quite a difference in what I said. You can know in advance which setup will work or not. Man, your signature is "when you see it bet big"... how would you know which trade to bet big on? Do you bet big on every single "signal" you see? If that's the case, good luck to your account. Your signature is exactly how I trade. I bet big on the trades I'm confident in. And for...

Exactly! Trading every single setup, just because it conforms with your strategy is absurd,at least for discretionary traders. Some setups are not just worth it, no matter how good they look.
This Jim Rogers quote says it all, "I just wait until there's money lying down in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up."
  • #62
  • Jan 19, 2019 1:59am Jan 19, 2019 1:59am
Really if I were you Ren - I would just pack up trading and do something else.
There is so much going on - and the answers are not on FF
  • #63
  • Jan 19, 2019 2:37am Jan 19, 2019 2:37am
Quoting moneymaker2
Just to be clear and because it is kind or a pain to get to the other thread, I'll repost what I'm talking about: {image} This chart is from the 2008-2009 timeframe when I was teaching my daughter to trade. I no longer use the Ichimochu Cloud (and seldom stochastics) so they can be disregarded. {image} {image} {image} As you can see, this pattern happens now just as it did then. The best setup is when the first high occurs outside the upper BB, then 3-6 candles later another high of roughly the same value as the first occurs inside the BB, and the...
thanks money maker,what is value of rsi?
  • #64
  • Jan 19, 2019 4:30am Jan 19, 2019 4:30am
You lose money when divergence doesn't work.....

Divergence isn't too bad a strategy, as in the above post it draws your attention to weakness in the swing, and also it can in itself highlight a stop run, but not always, so if when you understand this you can avoid some of your losses.

If you do use indicators for your trading it is important to understand what they represent, MA's indicate the direction of the market, Oscillators indicate swings and so on, so what I'm saying is that when an Oscillator indicates a swing you need to know what that swing is, is it a swing, or is it a stop hunt swing in itself.

My illustration shows a swing high, and the Oscillator shows divergence, so we are looking to go short, the lines have crossed for confirmation, but wait!!!!! we have not had the stop run. That is how you filter out your losers.

The first chart shows divergence where we have not had a stop hunt, the second shows divergence where the divergence is actually a stop hunt.
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  • #65
  • Jan 19, 2019 6:38am Jan 19, 2019 6:38am
Well, good old Indicators. I dont know how people make money with indicators. Like my friend told me once, it just a drawing. Nice art work, good to keep on your walls, and even more handsome it looks when ur balance nears zero. I havent yet met one artist or poet making money money in the markets. If you can make money with it shout out to u.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #66
  • Jan 19, 2019 7:55am Jan 19, 2019 7:55am
Quoting ficibald
{quote} thanks money maker,what is value of rsi?
I set my RSI to 5 periods.
  • #67
  • Jan 19, 2019 8:04am Jan 19, 2019 8:04am
Quoting Rennaissance
Well, good old Indicators. I dont know how people make money with indicators. Like my friend told me once, it just a drawing. Nice art work, good to keep on your walls, and even more handsome it looks when ur balance nears zero. I havent yet met one artist or poet making money money in the markets. If you can make money with it shout out to u.
why some people blame indicators that they dont work, if clear chart dont work for them too
  • #68
  • Jan 19, 2019 8:39am Jan 19, 2019 8:39am
I prefer clear charts indicators will cost you big time
  • #69
  • Jan 19, 2019 10:02am Jan 19, 2019 10:02am
Quoting Rennaissance
Well, good old Indicators. I dont know how people make money with indicators. Like my friend told me once, it just a drawing. If you can make money with it shout out to u.
Appreciate the shout out, Rennaissance!

But seriously, try to think outside the (your) box. Indicators are nothing more than another tool in the trader's toolbox. It is like the claw on a hammer: usually a curved claw suffices but sometimes a straight claw makes the job easier. So why not have both at your disposal?

Some people, possibly even your friend, are probably just intimidated by indicators because they don't understand them. Look at an EKG printout.....that is nothing more than an indicator of the "price" (beating) of the heart. To a lot of people it may just appear to be a drawing and nothing more. No one is born with the ability to read an EKG; it is something learned and practiced, so if it is NOT learned and practiced, it is useless to the observer. But to someone with the knowledge and experience of using that "indicator", the PQRST waves can give you valuable information, in detail enough from which to form opinions and make decisions.
  • #70
  • Jan 19, 2019 10:35am Jan 19, 2019 10:35am
When I encounter a losing streak I tend to stop, incase the market has entered some sort of period that doesn't respect my strategy, or I'm just not doing well. I then come back a couple or few days later
  • #71
  • Jan 19, 2019 12:57pm Jan 19, 2019 12:57pm
Sorry I came here .. I will delete my post. Please continue
Staying in my lane...
  • #72
  • Jan 19, 2019 2:59pm Jan 19, 2019 2:59pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Appreciate the shout out, Rennaissance! But seriously, try to think outside the (your) box. Indicators are nothing more than another tool in the trader's toolbox. It is like the claw on a hammer: usually a curved claw suffices but sometimes a straight claw makes the job easier. So why not have both at your disposal? Some people, possibly even your friend, are probably just intimidated by indicators because they don't understand them. Look at an EKG printout.....that is nothing more than an indicator of the "price" (beating)...
Nice post.

Indicators are defintely useful. I use ema's, currency strength meter and cci. The problem with many traders is that they don't know how to use them to gain an advantage. If one can gain even a 10% better win ratio using a certain idi, it's certainly worth using. The real strength comes when one uses maybe 2 or 3 different types of indi. Each one has to give a positive signal before one enters a trade. I use four different "signals". If any one of them is not absolutely positive then no trade.
  • #73
  • Jan 19, 2019 3:05pm Jan 19, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
Sorry I came here .. I will delete my post. Please continue
I hope you don't leave, VEEFX. The whole point of forums is to share ideas and open yourself up to new possibilities, and your ideas are as valid as anyone else's ideas. I just have a difference of opinion concerning algorithms and I don't always agree with absolutes, in that I believe that there are many ways to get to the same end in trading, which is making money.

I believe that if everyone shared ideas about what works for them, there would be enough nuggets of wisdom thrown out here that some people would surely benefit and likely even increase their profits. (And regardless of what some think, if someone else increases their profit, it doesn't affect mine in the least.)
  • #74
  • Jan 19, 2019 10:10pm Jan 19, 2019 10:10pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Just to be clear and because it is kind or a pain to get to the other thread, I'll repost what I'm talking about: {image} This chart is from the 2008-2009 timeframe when I was teaching my daughter to trade. I no longer use the Ichimochu Cloud (and seldom stochastics) so they can be disregarded. {image} {image These things have helped me not only minimize my losses, but survive the ones that happen. Just my two pips worth.....
G'day Moneymaker---good to see you active again.
I think I recall you only trade short on these setups. Can you explain why you dont like the reverse scenario?
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #75
  • Jan 19, 2019 11:57pm Jan 19, 2019 11:57pm
Quoting Iamfx
{quote} G'day Moneymaker---good to see you active again. I think I recall you only trade short on these setups. Can you explain why you dont like the reverse scenario?
Hello Iamfx, I hope you and yours had an enjoyable holiday.

Yes, for this pattern of RSI Divergence I only trade going down. I have found that to be a lot more reliable than the reverse. On the stock side, that seems to be due to people selling at the second high out of fear because they missed the first high and the subsequent drop spooked them and they want to make sure they get out at that high price again while they can. Since this is just a mini double top, it acts the same way. I can only assume the currency market reacts in the same manner, because it is a very high confidence trade (very repeatable).

Often with the price on the lower BB, it tends to have difficulty pushing up through the EMAs unless conditions are right (such as price not having slid down the lower BB and the angle of the EMAs/mid-BB not too steep). Since it is somewhat less easy to predict, I just don't bother trading them.
  • #76
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:23am Jan 20, 2019 12:23am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Hello Iamfx, I hope you and yours had an enjoyable holiday. Yes, for this pattern of RSI Divergence I only trade going down. I have found that to be a lot more reliable than the reverse. On the stock side, that seems to be due to people selling at the second high out of fear because they missed the first high and the subsequent drop spooked them and they want to make sure they get out at that high price again while they can. Since this is just a mini double top, it acts the same way. I can only assume the currency market reacts in the same...
Very good holiday thanks.
Yeah interesting. I remember in the old days on stocks--particularly US stocks --a lot of traders would refuse to go short as it was considered unAmerican to make money from some companies misfortune. How things have changed
I realise the above has nothing to do with your method but it would be very interesting if there was a long term statistical bias in trading in one direction only with this method.
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #77
  • Jan 20, 2019 12:25am Jan 20, 2019 12:25am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I hope you don't leave, VEEFX. The whole point of forums is to share ideas and open yourself up to new possibilities, and your ideas are as valid as anyone else's ideas. I just have a difference of opinion concerning algorithms and I don't always agree with absolutes, in that I believe that there are many ways to get to the same end in trading, which is making money. I believe that if everyone shared ideas about what works for them, there would be enough nuggets of wisdom thrown out here that some people would surely benefit and likely even...
Sure but I am sure folks will repent my participation here. Anyways, I will share my perspective on why Divergence between "two calculated result set" derived from indicator values will never work. Divergence between one constant and one variable will work but between two calculated values derived from one variable i.e. Price can never work. It's a mathematical impossibility because both values will change on every pip (or tick since now I am into futures). Clearly, you are not the abstract or absolute guy so in my opinion, you are NOT trading Divergence even if it appears to you that you are. IT is surely a part of your overall strategy but there is something else going on in your mind or in your focal interpretation or price interpretation triggered by Divergence but Divergence is not the root cause of your successful trade.

Let me explain further (as it is hard for me to stop typing in the middle of a flow). A real life example. Like in the wild wild west movies, a cowboy runs on a horse, catches a moving train, jumps on it and then tries to run on the roof of the train. All good right? sure, it's the movies so everything is possible. Now, have you seen anyone in the movies jump from one train to another train moving in the same direction (or opposite direction for that matter)? Is it possible? Tell me how? the only constant between the two trains is we can say with certainty is what it is made off... pure metal and that is about it. There is no way to predict (or assume) if the trains are gong to travel at the exact same speed to make the mental calculation in my mind before jumping on the other train (taking the trade). The moment you do, it is already too late because you are exposed to tremendous amounts of variability...and one of that variability is a possible option that you might land safely.... via pure luck and prayers if you are religious.

Same way I feel about correlations. They all work at times just like any setup. If you are able to latch on a fat tail distribution and exit the bell curve in a timely and consistent manner, you are a consistent trader which comes from yrs of practice and discipline. You are successful not because of Divergence setup or bollinger band or rsi or your deep understanding of it. You are successful because of your yrs of screentime watching one thing over and over and over and over again...... easy to say but VERY hard for humans to do and that is the only reason why most traders fail in my humble opinion. Money can be made with just one moving average or just the naked chart itself.

I am interested in eventually learning about Options so maybe I will tap into your knowledge when the time comes. For now, I am only into NQ and just one should suffice (I hope).
Staying in my lane...
  • #78
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:12am Jan 20, 2019 1:12am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Sure but I am sure folks will repent my participation here. Anyways, I will share my perspective on why Divergence between "two calculated result set" derived from indicator values will never work. Divergence between one constant and one variable will work but between two calculated values derived from one variable i.e. Price can never work. It's a mathematical impossibility because both values will change on every pip (or tick since now I am into futures). Clearly, you are not the abstract or absolute guy so in my opinion, you are NOT trading...
I have a favorite indicator that sometimes doesn't print it's lines on the screen right away. Only changing the symbol and changing it back or changing the time frame kicks in in. So, in that regard, I end up opening a naked chart when I am expecting my indicator to be on it. Without my indicator on the chart , sometimes I can tell exactly what my indicator would have shown the state of the pair to be. I make the indicator show up and then to my surprise, the indicator is far away from where I thought it would have been. Therefore, without the indicator, I would have made an entirely different decision if I was about to buy/sell. Most likely, I would have regretted making that decision without the guidance of the indicator unless luck was with me.

Maybe it's me but yrs of screen watching and the cold hard calculations of an indicator are not one and the same.
  • #79
  • Jan 20, 2019 5:13am Jan 20, 2019 5:13am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Screen watching is gut discretionary. Indicators are math in visual format.
That's another way to lose money, going by your gut and watching the screen, you need to be doing chart analysis, while there is an element of discretion, there are clear SR levels, some clearer then other, clarity is good, less discretion is better.

Indicators are indeed a mathematical calculation representing what's happening on your chart, a summary if you like.
  • #80
  • Jan 20, 2019 6:29am Jan 20, 2019 6:29am
I would like to clear up a misconception as far as the forex market and forex trading is concerned. It differs to trading stocks. When trading stocks you are trading one commodity or entity. Thus the difference between buying or selling may be relevant as often selling is more beneficial due to panic/fear factor. However when it comes to buying/selling forex, there is generally no difference or advantage to whether you buy or sell. Taking GBPJPY as an example, JPY can be very strong one day and very weak the next thus buying the pair can be just as lucrative as selling it!
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