What works, and what doesn't | Page 17 | Forex Factory

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What works, and what doesn't

  • #321
  • Jan 16, 2019 5:11am Jan 16, 2019 5:11am
Strange, no one wants to comment on what works; are they keeping secret?

Anyway, the method I posted earlier, seems to work good on NZDCAD, that chart was late 2017 and it did it again in late 2018

And it's working for the downswing right now, follow along and see how far we can push those precious pips!

I put the ADX on daily as suggested but no pairs are in strong trend yet, maybe this will be the one for 2019

Good luck all

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #322
  • Jan 16, 2019 5:46am Jan 16, 2019 5:46am
Quoting Erebus
Strange, no one wants to comment on what works; are they keeping secret? Anyway, the method I posted earlier, seems to work good on NZDCAD, that chart was late 2017 and it did it again in late 2018 And it's working for the downswing right now, follow along and see how far we can push those precious pips! I put the ADX on daily as suggested but no pairs are in strong trend yet, maybe this will be the one for 2019 Good luck all {image}
hello erebus...mind to share this indicator that you use it..looks clean and simple..tq sir!!
Know The Presence Of The Market
  • #323
  • Jan 16, 2019 6:06am Jan 16, 2019 6:06am
Quoting jesxrussel
{quote} hello erebus...mind to share this indicator that you use it..looks clean and simple..tq sir!!
I have to assume you mean the ADX in the sub window, main chart just has moving averages

you can find it at MQL5 store or at the Market tab of MT4 if you know how to use it

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/26538#

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #324
  • Jan 16, 2019 6:17am Jan 16, 2019 6:17am
Every day I win.. Thank you Market!

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The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #326
  • Jan 16, 2019 6:24am Jan 16, 2019 6:24am
the problem i have with fibs.. If you draw random lines on your screen and then back test them.. they seem to work too.
Try it.. on any chart you want.. draw some random lines.. You will see how well they seem to give signals...
I'm serious.. try it... (do it now!)
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #327
  • Jan 16, 2019 6:45am Jan 16, 2019 6:45am
Quoting bloodpoodle
the problem i have with fibs.. If you draw random lines on your screen and then back test them.. they seem to work too. Try it.. on any chart you want.. draw some random lines.. You will see how well they seem to give signals... I'm serious.. try it... (do it now!)
I guess that was directed at me?

I know what you mean about random lines, I've seen a video on Youtube about it even.

But the moving average crossover is the only time I use FIB, it defines the range of price

Then I watch for rejection around the 50% pullback - not even a Fib number

Gann first spotted the value of 50%

We will see how it works going forward, thanks
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #328
  • Jan 16, 2019 7:12am Jan 16, 2019 7:12am
Never listen to a trading guru who is giving signals.
Discover how price moves.. Pay attention to liquidity and volatility
ignore the latest news headline! (but don't scalp 5 mins before NFP, use common sense)
find what time of day your currency pair is most likely to moves and build your own system around what you see.
Don't try to trade 18 hours a day.. pick the time your most successful.
and focus in on it! Don't try to master everything! Just know one thing very well..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #330
  • Jan 16, 2019 4:12pm Jan 16, 2019 4:12pm
Hey All,

I feel compelled to say something. As A few have mentioned, what 'works' is very much subjective. What is your definition of 'works'? What is your trading model and money management scheme which is absolutely more important than trading style. Many trading styles can be profitable, however, if you do not have a basic understanding of price action, price patterns a near addiction to fundamentals and a rock solid money management scheme, forget it. You will not be in the game for the long run.

Money management is the most overlooked aspect of trading in general. Most novice traders I have seen or spoken with don't fully grasp the fact that you can not predict your gains, only your loses. You can not predict future profit. You can guess, hope and plan to get a risk reward ratio of 2-1 or 3-1 but the fact is you can not count on it. Can your money management plan handle 10 straight loses? Can you handle 10 loses period? It happens all the time especially if you plan on trading more than one currency pair at a time.

The best advice I can give any trader is the same mantra all the best traders give. These are my favorites:

1) "Capital preservation is paramount." Your in the business of trading money, if you have no money your out of business.

2) "Develop a Trading Methodology Based on Facts." Lots of trash out there. Do your homework. Not every trading method or style works for everyone.

3) "Money management rules ultimately determine the success of your trading." Enough said.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #331
  • Jan 16, 2019 7:41pm Jan 16, 2019 7:41pm
Quoting Erebus
Strange, no one wants to comment on what works; are they keeping secret?
I'll give it a go, Erebus. This is what works for me and has for years. I call it the RSI Divergence. As you can see, I use indicators because they help me to see what is going on.
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Now, this capture is from 2008-2009 time frame when I was teaching my daughter to trade. I no longer use stochastics or the Ichimoku Cloud, so those can be disregarded.

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As you can see, this pattern happens now just as it did then. The best setup is when the first high occurs outside the upper BB, then 3-6 candles later another high of roughly the same value as the first occurs inside the BB, and the second high RSI value is lower than the first high RSI value. I typically trade at the very end of the second high candle or the very beginning of the next candle. Goal is typically the 10EMA on shorter time frames or the 5EMA on 4hr or Daily charts. I shoot for a minimum of 10 pips profit, naturally letting it run if it chooses to do so. I always add the spread amount to the EMA value to set my take profit to ensure it is hit. Look at the other time frames for where price is in relation to the EMAs/mid-BB and you will see the minor support levels. I have found these to be very safe, high confidence trades, and if you make up an MT4 template with these indicators and look back at your charts, you'll see it happens pretty frequently.

Again, as you can see, I use indicators, so if you choose not to use them, this method will be pretty useless to you. But it works for me and hopefully someone can find it somewhat useful to them...
  • #332
  • Jan 16, 2019 11:07pm Jan 16, 2019 11:07pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I'll give it a go, Erebus. This is what works for me and has for years. I call it the RSI Divergence.
Very good, I'll have to study up on that, see how it lines up with the charts I have been posting, especially daily.

Speaking of which, anybody follow along with the NZDCAD?

Rolling in the pips now

We can see the usual price action, support, resistance, lower lows, lowers highs, next somebody will be counting waves

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #333
  • Edited Jan 17, 2019 12:10am Jan 16, 2019 11:35pm | Edited Jan 17, 2019 12:10am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Interesting, any chance of showing charts, using the examples that I gave earlier, with ADX added, and give your analysis? I'm curious to see if there is any connection, with what I'm seeing and what you are describing, thanks.
I'm using the one straight from the horses mouth...the exact forumula that welles wilder put out in 1978. in most of my quant systems i use the adx in some form, like salt to a chef. That's mean no ADX on chart. And i use ADX only for trends spotter not direction

For direction long or short, i definitely use basic fundamental analysis.
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
  • #334
  • Jan 17, 2019 12:10am Jan 17, 2019 12:10am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Speaking of which, anybody follow along with the NZDCAD?
A quick check even showed a nice RSI Divergence on the Daily chart of the NZDCAD...although for some reason our daily candles are off somewhat...like I have an extra candle at the beginning of the set up and one at the end....guess all data servers are slightly different for times maybe....

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Just check other time frames to see what EMA or mid-BB it is going to be hitting against first...gives an idea where minor support will be. If it falters or has two or more support areas at the same level on different time frames I get out. Might leave some pips on the table, but you won't go broke taking a profit!
  • #335
  • Jan 17, 2019 12:35am Jan 17, 2019 12:35am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} A quick check even showed a nice RSI Divergence on the Daily chart of the NZDCAD...although for some reason our daily candles are off somewhat...like I have an extra candle at the beginning of the set up and one at the end....guess all data servers are slightly different for times maybe.... {image} Just check other time frames to see what EMA or mid-BB it is going to be hitting against first...gives an idea where minor support will be. If it falters or has two or more support areas at the same level on different time frames I get out. Might...
I see, now 0.891 is level is very crucial; if market can breaks this level; then we can expect bearish trend! Otherwise, till now we are in a bullish trend.
  • #336
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:06am Jan 17, 2019 9:06am
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  • #337
  • Jan 17, 2019 10:00am Jan 17, 2019 10:00am
Support and resistance / supply and demand are the only things you will need in the trading game
  • #338
  • Jan 17, 2019 2:40pm Jan 17, 2019 2:40pm
: )─

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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #339
  • Jan 17, 2019 4:07pm Jan 17, 2019 4:07pm
Lots of people feel that technical indicators are useless. I don't fall into that group. For me, they give me that visual of what will most likely happen based on what has happened in the past under the same circumstances. To others, they are a waste of time. That is their opinion and they are certainly entitled to it. But I look at it like a bass fishing tournament: the goal is to catch the most fish in a given amount of time. Now if you have 100 participants, you will have all sorts of strategies. Some will fish deep, some will fish shallow. Some will fish fast, some slow. Some will use crankbaits, some will use spinnerbaits, some will use plastics and some will use a jig and pig. No one is wrong in their method, everyone is doing what has been successful to them in the past and what they feel comfortable with and what they have confidence in. Like currency trading. People do it a million ways. I just feel that those that say "this" is absolutely the ONLY way to do it or "that" is the wrong way to do it are just very naïve. Think outside the box every once in a while. Because if I was fishing deep and everyone was catching fish shallow, you can bet I wouldn't be in the middle of the lake yelling at them that they were fishing wrong! I would be changing lures as fast as I could and heading towards shore!

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When certain conditions happened above (mid-BB used as support), price did just what was expected in the previous post, and that was to go up. It is just really hard for me to put much stock into someone's opinion that indicators don't work when they clearly help me, that's all.....
  • #340
  • Jan 17, 2019 5:57pm Jan 17, 2019 5:57pm
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