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  • #73,041
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:12am Jan 15, 2019 4:12am
Today's Brexit vote is the single biggest threat for EU bulls... if PM May got defeated with margin over 100 vote then we could be on our way to retesting 1.121xx...short term


Trade Safe Pals! Some wild swing expected either sides...

Happy Trading
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
  • #73,042
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:15am Jan 15, 2019 4:15am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} {quote} Thanks. One part is discipline yes, BUT the bigger part is "knowing" what you are doing. My own critic is: "Jumping to my weekly analysis while trading the H1 chart". I should have simply stuck to trade the H1 chart by accepting my loss and start buying back then when bulls kicked in. Many of you did that and profited. My choice was (again: based on weekly) to stick to bearish bias and as you know it, it cost me some round trip to draw-down land. Next time I am sticking 100% to the H1 chart analysis so that I don't to face the same...
That great honesty - I admire this. And, of course, skill & discipline to recover a bad situation.
It takes time
  • #73,043
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:18am Jan 15, 2019 4:18am
Wow, PPI data, then Draghi, then brexit vote... I don't know when I am supposed to sleep tonight !
  • #73,044
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:22am Jan 15, 2019 4:22am
Quoting wealthyqueen
{quote} Happy Sunday or Monday Coreg! Please do not laugh at my chart. It is not pretty. Based on what I see with my newbie eyes, I would make the following trade. Downward trend 15 min Entry: 1.14753 SL: 1.14942 TP1: 1.14226 TP2: 1.13514 TP3: 1.13118 {image}
I did not see your chart earlier. Nice chart. Better still, excellent trade!

More pips to you.
  • #73,045
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:24am Jan 15, 2019 4:24am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Makes sense. someone posted something last week about a book they read where the author(some big shot fx guru i suppose) suggested closing all positions at the end of the trading day, winners and loosers, the idea/logic is to enter each day without any positions and start afresh.....
Makes sense, sometimes..
When you expect a move going further your way and you entered at the bottom/top, I don't see why you would do that.

For entries in between the expected range, I do. Nowadays I like to open two seperate positions, one that rides the short term momentum of the move (everything that stays above / below the fast EMA - 9) and keep the other position open to try and catch the longer term ride (above / below the LWMA 49).

Unless I see a reason to close, this way it's possible to build positions and ride longer term waves, as long as there is margin.

Also allocating a fixed capital each day to risk and subtract every loser from that. When there's no more capital, no more trading. And build positions only when other trades are at B/E so the exposure isn't more than the fixed amount.

Ofcourse only keeping winners and closing out losers every day.

That's how I like to do it, but everyone has to decide for himself ofcourse.

Grtz
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #73,046
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:26am Jan 15, 2019 4:26am
i see 1.13xx post brexit vote... still holding shorts from last week and taken a bunch of short scalps along the way , wishing i held those too but wanted to reduce exposure when it broke above 1.15.
Anyone else thinking its going to tank after the vote? Any arguments for the opposite?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #73,047
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:32am Jan 15, 2019 4:32am
Quoting groper
i see 1.13xx post brexit vote... still holding shorts from last week and taken a bunch of short scalps along the way , wishing i held those too but wanted to reduce exposure when it broke above 1.15. Anyone else thinking its going to tank after the vote? Any arguments for the opposite? {image}

Three possible scenarios:

 

  1. 1. PM May got pass: Cable huge up ...and taking EU with it...coz...this will be good news for EU tooo
  2. 2. PM MaY got fail but less than 50 Vote or so... Cable holding current level or 50 to 100 pips upside... EU up but not breaking 1.15
  3. 3. PM May got defeated over 100 vote or so... Cable Tank..EU Tank... not sure about the bottom for both....

Trade safe my friend.

Happy Trading

Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
  • #73,048
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:34am Jan 15, 2019 4:34am
Quoting groper
i see 1.13xx post brexit vote... still holding shorts from last week and taken a bunch of short scalps along the way , wishing i held those too but wanted to reduce exposure when it broke above 1.15. Anyone else thinking its going to tank after the vote? Any arguments for the opposite? {image}
I suppose the question is how much has already been factored in? May is clearly expected to lose (is how much important?) So an unlikely win would be massive upside for EU & GB. How much downside after a loss is difficult to tell because it could lead to a new referendum, which is also positive. Difficult to use a crystal ball today.
It takes time
  • #73,049
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:35am Jan 15, 2019 4:35am
The 4hr candle arrangement points to a test of at least the 200 SMA on same TF before any good bounce may be seen. Nice bear flag forming on the 15mins. We havent seen the bottom of this yet. No buying here!

Quoting post
{quote} Three possible scenarios: 1. PM May got pass: Cable huge up ...and taking EU with it...coz...this will be good news for EU tooo 2. PM MaY got fail but less than 50 Vote or so... Cable holding current level or 50 to 100 pips upside... EU up but not breaking 1.15 3. PM May got defeated over 100 vote or so... Cable Tank..EU Tank... not sure about the bottom for both.... Trade safe my friend. Happy Trading
From what we have been hearing over the news option 3 seems the most likely. However, I don't think I want to play news today. Things could quickly change.
  • #73,050
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:45am Jan 15, 2019 4:45am
Quoting Mitiblotch
The 4hr candle arrangement points to a test of at least the 200 SMA on same TF before any good bounce may be seen. Nice bear flag forming on the 15mins. We havent seen the bottom of this yet. No buying here! {quote} From what we have been hearing over the news option 3 seems the most likely. However, I don't think I want to play news today. Things could quickly change.
What time is the news
  • #73,051
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:45am Jan 15, 2019 4:45am
New buy @1427
TP 1474
SL 1395
  • #73,052
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:46am Jan 15, 2019 4:46am
Quoting Tanu76
{quote} What time is the news
7-9pm gmt
  • #73,053
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:48am Jan 15, 2019 4:48am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} 7-9pm gmt
Thanks for the reply
  • #73,054
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:49am Jan 15, 2019 4:49am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I did not see your chart earlier. Nice chart. Better still, excellent trade! More pips to you.
Thanks Moty!
  • #73,055
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:51am Jan 15, 2019 4:51am
Guys, consider that whatever bad scenarios you think are likely are already priced in. On the other hand, we have the longest US shutdown in history.

The point isn't to buy (or sell) eu necessarily, but just be careful and don't make assumptions.
  • #73,056
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:59am Jan 15, 2019 4:59am
Quoting Mitiblotch
The 4hr candle arrangement points to a test of at least the 200 SMA on same TF before any good bounce may be seen. Nice bear flag forming on the 15mins. We havent seen the bottom of this yet. No buying here! {quote} From what we have been hearing over the news option 3 seems the most likely. However, I don't think I want to play news today. Things could quickly change.
i agree - no buying here!

All news points to a huge defeat on the vote, backed up by tweets from many of the politicians on twitter etc and MS media... The way i see it, is the main risk is a surprise pass, it seems almost impossible tho. Given that widely believed scenario plays out and the vote gets squashed, EU will likely trade back into its long term range between 1.15 - 1.13 - perhaps it could push to new lows in the 1.12xx given a couple days - will see. Therefore i keep my short bias until we see a bottom after the vote, then switch to long when its exhausted...

If no confidence motion is started against May- that will affect G pairs for the most part - i cant see the brexit aftermath affecting EU so much as the brits tussle it out and play politics. One other thing that may come out of it - the policitcal uncertainty around G and E pairs- where will the money go if they get sold off? My bet is on USD and JPY and CHF. Might see some solid money flow into those currencies over the coming days whilst the uncertainty looms...
  • #73,057
  • Jan 15, 2019 4:59am Jan 15, 2019 4:59am
what I don't get today is why the market moved before draghi...(and brexit later),- I mean the EUR/USD. It is a bit a pity because I wanted to trade range.
I expect high volatility later: Drop strong one more or recover completely till 1.1480 around again (becasue of miss-investment of pro's currently).

I really wonder who moved the market down (or better: the reason).
  • #73,058
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:04am Jan 15, 2019 5:04am
Last time we had the vote in the UK the result came out near to 9pm GMT. Which is an awkward time to trade. General view is that it will be a defeat. Personally I will probably watch the market or go to the gym as there will be too much chop as we have multiple fundamentals in play. Probably better to trade EUR/GBP than EU. Just my 2 pence worth. There will always be positions to trade. Plot your chart and plan your trade :-)
Take 1 step forward, two small steps back
  • #73,059
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:05am Jan 15, 2019 5:05am
Quoting JackintheBox
what I don't get today is why the market moved before draghi...(and brexit later),- I mean the EUR/USD. It is a bit a pity because I wanted to trade range. I expect high volatility later: Drop strong one more or recover completely till 1.1480 around again (becasue of miss-investment of pro's currently). I really wonder who moved the market down (or better: the reason).
Can you please shed some more light on the above bolded statement? I actually know what you mean, but you sound as though you understand these concepts well. Thanks in advance.
  • #73,060
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:08am Jan 15, 2019 5:08am
Quoting SteFX85
{quote} Makes sense, sometimes.. When you expect a move going further your way and you entered at the bottom/top, I don't see why you would do that. For entries in between the expected range, I do. Nowadays I like to open two seperate positions, one that rides the short term momentum of the move (everything that stays above / below the fast EMA - 9) and keep the other position open to try and catch the longer term ride (above / below the LWMA 49). Unless I see a reason to close, this way it's possible to build positions and ride longer term waves,...
Thats very true Stef.

Hence why i prefer taking my cut from the position and then letting the trades run. if it gets stopped out at BE or BE plus a couple then im fine, if it carries on running then we keep collecting those pips.
The losers i try cut out on a daily closing basis more so if they have moved far away from the entry price proving the setup was wrong to begin with.
Regards
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