What works, and what doesn't

PRICE STALLED OUT! DANGER!

Price has stalled for many hours now. We know a big move can come after such at stall!
But which wall will it fly out of this consolidation up or down?
At this point entering is dangerous... Stops buliding both sides..
Often it will poke the wrong way first..... then a huge break out move in the other direction.
For me this is a time to wait... Its too risky to enter... and 50/50 shot of a huge move.



The plan here is not to get greedy, but to play defence by not entering... It may make a huge move with out you!
Wait for the break out... then watch it.. Wait to better define your risk.



As you can see entering in the stalled market.. You wern't able to define your risk.. Price make a false move up
then a huge 80 pip break down.
Best not even to enter when price is stalled...As its a 50/50 shot with no definable tight risk.

april going good.. Doing a lot of really late asian/europe open scalps
nothing big.. but consistantly growing my account..
Try to wait till enough odds are in my favor.. then hit the market...

Pattern trading fluctuates in reliability, therefor you must choose the time of day and other conditions that will put the odds in your favor of your pattern being successful.
There is not 1 reliable pattern thats always good to take! No holy grail pattern!
Watch the market closely to find your edge!
Keep track of what times of day and what size of moves your most accurate with
and what other conditions may give you an edge.
Once you find your edge.. embrace it..
Don't try to get 100 pip trades if your edge is scalping..
Don't scalp if your edge is bigger sized daily trades.
Don't trade news if you suck at it.
Love your edge...

How I start my day..
usually arrive a few hours before Europe- London open...
I'll look at the calander for anything adding risk... Huge data or central banker speeches?
I'll also review data from earlier in the day and how currency reacted.
I'll Look at the Dollar index, u/j, u/cnh, gold.. How has the dollar been acting today.
I'll look at the stock market.. Is there fear?.. If there is fear what currency is benefiting..
I'll Usually take a look at E/Jpy G/Jpy and compare them to U/Jpy.
I might take a peak at copper and oil...
I might take a peak at usa bonds, german bunds, and dax.
Then I take a look at the major currency pairs..
I"ll look at some crosses.. E/A E/G A/Nzd
I'll have a peek at twitter... see if there is any major thing that every trader is talking about..
One I do this.. I'll have a sense of if the day so far(Day has been routine, or is there something crazy going on)
after I've done all this... I'll have a sense of where the money has been flowing..
These are not signals.. Just an overview of the market as a whole.
When you start to watch this stuff every day for years and years... you start get a sense of what to expect.
Its nothing that can be taught, to learn it you must spend years watching it. Trading isn't an easy.

Wisdom cannot be directly transferred.
Wisdom that gets shared becomes acquired as knowledge; personal experience then converts it into wisdom.

Thanks for your knowledge. This honest information cleared new trader mind.

I see you put lower TF 30 mins to 5 mins for scalping analysis. But do you include 1hr to 4hrs level to your analysis?

Your thinking of reversal move (trading TF) after low liquidity spike or failed breakout is maybe caused by s/r level roadblock by higher timeframe.

What words? Chart analysis (price action) & fundamental! In addition, what doesn’t? Trading tools & EA!!

Honestly I can't tell anybody how to win. I just know there is no one magic setup that works 100% of time.
You have to know when conditions are right, and you can only get that from years of watching charts.
No free ride, put in the work to get the reward!. It takes watching charts till your eye's bleed.
If your not feeling confident take the day off.. your gut is telling you something.. Listen to it..

my 2019 so far..

Haven't had time to read the whole thread, some interesting discussion thus far, I will share this in support of the trend lines don't work

There is 1 thing I noticed that does work, SOME OF THE TIME ------> Moving Average crossover + Fibonacci retracements

For example, when 10 EMA crossover the 20 EMA, do NOT trade immediately ----> wait for the retracement

And before asking any questions, check all of your charts, do some research and remember what I said ----> SOME OF THE TIME

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

What works, and what doesn't

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Do you ever find that waiting on those averages slows your entry? Do you find that the win rate is higher if you wait?

Just something I noticed recently, but I know what you mean, sometimes there is no retracement!

Control FOMO, you know the usual quote, wait for price to come to you!

For me, a trade is not just 1 entry and exit, I would add on multiple times during a trend like that

Also, it is very discretionary, flexible and subjective to the placing of the Fibonacci points; is it the crossover candle?

Or the recent swing high or low? It depends on what the price action is doing at the time, extreme high or low can be great!

A smoother trending pair is ideal, so those recent SPIKES just are havoc with any chart

What does the crossover tell you? It says the close of the most recent 10 candles is higher / lower than the close of the most recent 20 candles

That, in and of itself, is not a signal, it is just an alert, price is saying to you, "Hey, look at me, maybe I'm changing direction"

One more example, don't want to clog the thread, or upset the thread starter.

You can see all the usual PA patterns, Double Bottom, Support & Resistance, Higher High, Higher Low, Bull Flag but where is the signal???

Supposed to be only 2 entry types, Breakout or Retracement, take your pick!

Hope to see examples if anyone can see what I showing here, back to you all

work with classical technical analysis tools and you will be happy ..

ONLY IF we knew what those classical technical analysis tools were...........?????????

Candles and range.

+ 13 years of practice

I don’t look at candles ... and cups, butterflies, heads, shoulders ...- although I see them as filters

Before jump to trade i check several condition :

1. which market condition now, trending or choopy. If trending i go to breakout strategy, if choopy i jump to reversal strategy.
2. which direction market heading south or north
3. when place order, and where put sl and tp.

I'm not an indicator guy, but after reading Welles Wilder's book and finding out the adx calculation, i fell in love with it. i hardly use it as a primary indicator. my primary indicator is always price or volume. but the adx seems to work well as a filter for almost any system, especially on daily bars. when adx is low it means the market is choppy, when it is high it means the market is hell bent on a certain direction.

i like ADX because it gives you new information. most indicators are just sunglasses for price. the ones that give you new, non-price related informaiton are the most valuable (eg volume, open interest, implied volatility). then there are a few hybrid indicators, that do tell you about price, but they transform the price in such a way that the indicator no longer really talking about price. these include indicators like ATR and standard deviation, which tell you about range. i also think ADX is one of these hybrids. while it does read the price, the real value is that it can answer the question: is the market trending?

i use ADX when trading discretionally and with quant system. every quant method i have relies somehow on the ADX, to me its like salt to a chef!

this is the reason i am such a fan of the adx, because i have studied the math intensly and made a couple alterations of my own.

Interesting, any chance of showing charts, using the examples that I gave earlier, with ADX added, and give your analysis?

I'm curious to see if there is any connection, with what I'm seeing and what you are describing, thanks.