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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,061
  • Jan 7, 2019 12:46am Jan 7, 2019 12:46am
Quoting antmindset
You are right 7thTorch. i am committing my next 2-3 months only to read and understand and re-read this whole thread specially initial 300-500 pages. I am also demoing in parallel. As FTI said, we need to work as Ant and grow equity gradually. Power of compounding will take its time to do magic. FTI said lot about dancing, but i am not able to find out how other than my understanding of simple chart patterns. Can someone teach me how to dance? -Ant
Hi antmindset

Have you read some of the books that fti suggested like Dow theory and art of war? Did you take note of the first post and what the main (not all) ingredients needed to help you trade are? At the end of the day these will help you but as our friend says above only hands on experience can teach you how to dance in the end, everyone does it differently depending where they are on their own learning curve and what time frames they choose to trading in/with, have a look around at others who have been here for a while and see if their posts can help you with what they show in their journals, it may be a good idea to start your own journal and show what you are doing and where you may need some help by posting your trades and asking about thing you are unsure/confused about to get others opinions.

As our friend fti says ‘it is marathon not a race’.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,062
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:07am Jan 7, 2019 5:07am
Thank you guys. I am reading AOW and Paper Money. I have read "scientific chart pattern", (Re-reading it now).

I will post once i start dancing, i am learning steps for now.

-Ant
  • #58,063
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:11am Jan 7, 2019 5:11am
Quoting antmindset
Thank you guys. I am reading AOW and Paper Money. I have read "scientific chart pattern", (Re-reading it now). I will post once i start dancing, i am learning steps for now. -Ant

Hi - best to demo to learn about trend, impulse, feel....... Then do some reading- market will teach you a lot - you will learn better by being in it - on demo for safety.

Put a scout in, then put another scout in then maybe add 2 - if you do not like it take em out - play around with it until you are happy.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,064
  • Jan 7, 2019 7:28am Jan 7, 2019 7:28am
Thanks Alex. Yes, i am demo trading and doing small rescue too

Feeling out of world when you rescue your negative pips. Eben in Demo.

-Ant
  • #58,065
  • Jan 8, 2019 12:13am Jan 8, 2019 12:13am
Dear Generals and Commanders,
Below is my Plan for Battle. I would be grateful if you comment on it, correct any misunderstanding/Wrong mindset and help me optimizing it.

MM Plan:
Total capitalization 1,00,000 (INR) -> USD 1500
Max risk/draw-down in one sitting (1 day) = 7% of capital = 7000 INR ( USD 100 )
Lot size = 1000 unit = 1 Troop
Pip size -> 1 Pip = 10 cents
Max Pips draw-down = 1000 Pips ( 1 Pip = 10 cents remember)
Brokerage for 10 Trades in one sitting = 100 pips ( USD 10 , i am getting a deal where in any number of lots i need to pay USD 1 per translation)
Pips to play = 900

Final Rescue - The Canon => Troops= 40, pips to rescue = 425, pips to move = 11 (Bite the battle if this rescue fail, go home rest 2 days, analyse trade, restart)
Rescue 2 => Troops =20, Pips to Rescue = 225, Pips to move = 11
Rescue 1 => Troops =10, Pips to rescue = 125, Pips to move = 11
Rescue progression 10,20,40 Troops. to rescue 125,225,450 pips
Free Play Arena = 125 Pips, breach of this initiate rescue.

MO Plan (in Rescue Scenario):
Daily Trend Bias, Hourly Trend Bias, 5M Trend Bias

Step 1 : Scout in at when Daily and Hourly are in sink (I am wrong until market prove me right)
Move -10 pips , Total Pips P/L = -10

Step 2 : Troop entry, Troop =1, Total Troops =2,
Move -10 pips , Total Pips P/L = -30 (-20,-10)

Step 3 : Troop entry, Troop =2, Total Troops =4,
Move -10 pips , Total Pips P/L = -70 (-40,-30)

Total Move against me = -70 Pips, Directional Move -30 Pips against Scout
Verdict : Timing is Wrong/Analysis Wrong/Something wrong

Initiate Rescue
Rescue MO:
Rescue 1 : Need to rescue 70 pips, in 7 pips move, Troops already in battle = 4, need 6 more
Enter Rescue troops = 6, Total Troops in battle = 10
Market Movement = -10 pips,
Rescue Failed, Additional Ground lost = -100 pips

Rescue 2 : Need to rescue 170 pips, in 7 pips move, Troops already in battle = 10, need 10 more
Enter Rescue troops = 10, Total Troops in battle = 20
Market Movement = -10 pips, Rescue Failed
Rescue Failed, Additional Ground lost = -200 pips

Rescue 3 : Need to rescue 370 pips, in 10 pips move, Troops already in battle = 20, need 20 more
Enter Rescue troops = 20, Total Troops in battle = 40
Market Movement = -10 pips, Final Rescue Failed
Additional Ground lost = -400 pips

Total Pips loss = 770 pips, = USD 77 = 5% of capital.

Bite the bullet. Go home, take 2 days rest, don't come back to revenge, forget loss/profit, prepare mindset, come back fresh

Thanks

-Ant

PS: All trades are in trend directional bias.
  • #58,066
  • Jan 8, 2019 3:02am Jan 8, 2019 3:02am
Quoting antmindset
Dear Generals and Commanders, Below is my Plan for Battle. I would be grateful if you comment on it, correct any misunderstanding/Wrong mindset and help me optimizing it. MM Plan: Total capitalization 1,00,000 (INR) -> USD 1500 Max risk/draw-down in one sitting (1 day) = 7% of capital = 7000 INR ( USD 100 ) Lot size = 1000 unit = 1 Troop Pip size -> 1 Pip = 10 cents Max Pips draw-down = 1000 Pips ( 1 Pip = 10 cents remember) Brokerage for 10 Trades in one sitting = 100 pips ( USD 10 , i am getting a deal where in any number of lots i need to pay...
Just my comments, pulsing the market(feel the trend aspect) should drive your rescue instead of fixed width rescues. Rescues should be driven by resurgence of momentum in line with current position direction.

If you are comfortable to show your charts and entries we could help you with it.
  • #58,067
  • Jan 8, 2019 5:27am Jan 8, 2019 5:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Just my comments, pulsing the market(feel the trend aspect) should drive your rescue instead of fixed width rescues. Rescues should be driven by resurgence of momentum in line with current position direction. If you are comfortable to show your charts and entries we could help you with it.

Hi CookieMonsta

agree totally my friend.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,068
  • Jan 8, 2019 6:10am Jan 8, 2019 6:10am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Just my comments, pulsing the market(feel the trend aspect) should drive your rescue instead of fixed width rescues. Rescues should be driven by resurgence of momentum in line with current position direction. If you are comfortable to show your charts and entries we could help you with it.
But, can you tell me, Am is right conceptually?

Definitely, rescue and attack should be based on live market, thrust, volatility etc...

I am learning trading since 2 months, and in Demo account. Please give me some time, i will ask for your help with my charts. I would like to learn mindset and concept first. I am slow learner.
  • #58,069
  • Edited 7:10am Jan 8, 2019 6:23am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} But, can you tell me, Am is right conceptually? Definitely, rescue and attack should be based on live market, thrust, volatility etc... I am learning trading since 2 months, and in Demo account. Please give me some time, i will ask for your help with my charts. I would like to learn mindset and concept first. I am slow learner.
Main idea seems ok, but need take care not to always require high level skew rescues, as you will be mainly on higher risk level, if keep going into death battle scenario, it may not be healthy mindset wise and book wise.

Also, try to rescue into market turns rather than fix pips range, it optimizes your rescue.

But since you are on demo and learning, it's good to experience it once to recognise your pain threshold so you know when to stop and cut.

But its still easier for us to be on the same page with you if we could see the charts plus their entries.
  • #58,070
  • Jan 8, 2019 10:36pm Jan 8, 2019 10:36pm
Quoting antmindset
{quote} But, can you tell me, Am is right conceptually? Definitely, rescue and attack should be based on live market, thrust, volatility etc... I am learning trading since 2 months, and in Demo account. Please give me some time, i will ask for your help with my charts. I would like to learn mindset and concept first. I am slow learner.

Let the dance guide you where to put the step next rather then fixing ur mind where you will put the next step.
  • #58,071
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:00am Jan 10, 2019 12:00am
Thank you guys. I will post my demo trade shortly. I am doing it now. Trend Bias Long Euro/USD
  • #58,072
  • Jan 10, 2019 2:28am Jan 10, 2019 2:28am
Quoting antmindset
Dear Generals and Commanders, Below is my Plan for Battle.....
Good to work some figures out for yourself when new - but very rigid as others have said. But good to start somewhere - if FTI did not think pullback showed trend strong e.g. very deep he would maybe take out his men - say he had 2 men in (1,1,2 .....) and re-enter them later as next scout level (2 - in trouble) enter 2 as new scout ((2 - in trouble & closed) 2 4) - with 2 as new basis - or he could do other things - there are lots of options - so when you demo try to go with it and learn and think about the possibilities. There is also different terrain - trend - range - mess - slowing down - running

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,073
  • Jan 10, 2019 4:46am Jan 10, 2019 4:46am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi - I suspect you are being rigid or looking for rigidity - and this all takes long time (or maybe I am slow). I spent ages being confused about FTI's thread but with the help of others here and lots of study it all starts to come together and now I wonder why I was so confused. I would start by making sure you know what a trend is - look at d1 waves and the candles that make them up, then move down to h1 and examine each d1 wave in h1 and look at its composition then down to m5 to relate it to h1 waves and learn the relationship between...
Please can you explain this statement:
what do these do to our break even and book - on paper look at what happens if every loss is 10 pips and every win is 20/30/40 etc pips (ie this represents more men) play around with nos to see what happens in different nos - may give you more confidence on mm - how to cut losses but let winners run (this is mm).
  • #58,074
  • Jan 10, 2019 5:06am Jan 10, 2019 5:06am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Please can you explain this statement: what do these do to our break even and book - on paper look at what happens if every loss is 10 pips and every win is 20/30/40 etc pips (ie this represents more men) play around with nos to see what happens in different nos - may give you more confidence on mm - how to cut losses but let winners run (this is mm).
I cannot remember now really - but it was just general advice to play around with money management ie different nos of troops - with focus on break even and overall book price whil etrying out different scenarios. Also to understand why we scout small and then add more troops - so we reduce risk. You can do that however you want - however it helps you.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,075
  • Jan 10, 2019 5:21am Jan 10, 2019 5:21am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I cannot remember now really - but it was just general advice to play around with money management ie different nos of troops - with focus on break even and overall book price whil etrying out different scenarios. Also to understand why we scout small and then add more troops - so we reduce risk. You can do that however you want - however it helps you. Alex
The quote is on your money management and attacking method: I wanted to understand your own approach.
  • #58,076
  • Jan 10, 2019 5:30am Jan 10, 2019 5:30am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} The quote is on your money management and attacking method: I wanted to understand your own approach.
Money management is as per FTI thread as I have understood it - it varies depending on terrain, trend and impulse. Scout(s) small for feel and when feels good attack with more men. If scout gets in trouble then manage it. MM is from FTI and not me - this is his thread.

Have you read the thread - best to review FTI's approach as documented in thread - he gives a great chart showing him adding and removing men - this is what I started with as my understanding. Also other peeps from thread have their own journals which show what they do. I have not done that as I am not sure how it would affect me and I want to focus on self a bit (as per FTI). I may start a journal though.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,077
  • Jan 10, 2019 7:17am Jan 10, 2019 7:17am
Anyone trading eurusd and usdchf, careful cross current, feels market is coiling, direction yet to be known.

Gbpusd leg impulse seems strong but 2 sided (hourly) but h4 and D1 coil.
  • #58,078
  • Jan 10, 2019 8:02am Jan 10, 2019 8:02am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Anyone trading eurusd and usdchf, careful cross current, feels market is coiling, direction yet to be known. Gbpusd leg impulse seems strong but 2 sided (hourly) but h4 and D1 coil.

Ro3K telling the story my friend.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,079
  • Edited 10:51am Jan 10, 2019 8:16am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Ro3K telling the story my friend. Alex
Indeed, feels like they positioning after yesterday's fomc, wasnt out sized and not a big move either.

Eurusd hourly seems intact, watching to see if ro3k is intending to lineup.

Eurgbp has cross current contributions too.

Usdchf may show timing.

Observe eurusd and usdchf, someone is doing something for it to be behaving like this.

Ok gbpusd flew first, usdjpy is as usually minding its own biz, not in sync. Seems maybe abit signs of usdchf relenting. Now just seeing if usdchf willing to let go and eurusd may go, otherwise careful there.

If usdchf not willing, hmmm need restrategise.

Restrategise to defensive mode, usdchf dont wanna give up.

Finally. Around 1.1513
M15 looking good too.
  • #58,080
  • Jan 10, 2019 9:39am Jan 10, 2019 9:39am
Dear TAF Friends,

I would like to wish you a prosperous Year 2019 in all meaningful senses. I've been enjoying the years' handover phase since Christmas and am looking forward to the East Orthodox and Chinese festivities to appear on stage.

Trade safe and kind regards,

Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
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