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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,921
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:22pm Apr 9, 2018 9:22pm
Quoting Jupiter
...a window into the psychology of the players.
#54599 – fti - "some days i just wish my analytics are wrong so that I don't need to eat up everyone's stop loss."
  • #57,922
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:26pm Apr 9, 2018 9:26pm
Forex Factory...
Attached Image
  • #57,923
  • Apr 10, 2018 5:20am Apr 10, 2018 5:20am
Quoting Jupiter
... That's the Market, baby...
More evidence?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Stops and Moves 2.JPG Size: 34 KB
  • #57,924
  • Apr 11, 2018 12:04am Apr 11, 2018 12:04am
I've been trading FX for 3 years full time. However I still can't dance properly. Are you guys able to dance with high accuracy now?
Did anyone manage to achieve some degree of FTI's ability?
  • #57,925
  • Apr 11, 2018 5:41am Apr 11, 2018 5:41am
Quoting chimam
I've been trading FX for 3 years full time. However I still can't dance properly. Are you guys able to dance with high accuracy now? Did anyone manage to achieve some degree of FTI's ability?
Hi chimam

it takes a while, a long while, fti says about 3-5 years, for some more and for some never.

to answer your question have a look at some of the journals of people who post here, fti said he was not trying to make carbon copies, everyone does it a little differently but uses the core basics of what is here.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,926
  • Edited 6:26am Apr 11, 2018 5:46am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting chimam
I've been trading FX for 3 years full time. However I still can't dance properly. Are you guys able to dance with high accuracy now? Did anyone manage to achieve some degree of FTI's ability?
Feeling the trend helps to dictate your dance, then strategy and mm will help enhance everything. The core will still be feeling the trend.

Ability to properly respond to extemporaneous situations is key and core to that is the ability to pulse market to properly understand the situation.

Hip lop formations are key to pulsing the markets, these areas indicate orderflow once hit these zones enough to be significant to move market the other way, hence perhaps it's done by someone big enough to move markets?

Pull the 5mins chart out, as price unfolds, ask yourself, buyers or sellers stronger? Don't be bogged down by patterns and the like except, the impression price makes on you.does it feel like someone holding price down? Does price feels defended by someone ? What's their motive? Are we near stop zone? Or are we hunting stops? And in effect we are topping or bottoming? Or maybe we trending and now is pullback? Is price transforming from bullish to bearish? How strong are buyers or sellers? Any levels they still defending now? Or maybe both sides are strong and price is coiling? Or mm assassinating stops on both sides?

Then next is strategy and mm, am I still in line with major term trend? If yes, where is good for rescue? Do I really want that much volume? Are we near news and I can't afford this kind of volume exposed? Or should I rotate pair sensitivity or just plain close it out then reinstate later?

However, the ultimate skill is when price doesn't not act in line with your expectation, that is when you learn to keep the profits you make.(extemporaneous response)

And all these are learnt by dealers under fti's mentorship in 2 to 4 years, so without his guidance it may take alot longer.

And usually you will take 5 years on average as it usually takes 5 years for market to go 1 cycle and to learn most conditions markets manifest, and train in it.

Quote from AoW,

The general who has not mastered the art of extemporaneous response may know the terrain like the back of his hand, but will not be able to effectively use it to his advantage.
  • #57,927
  • Edited 6:55am Apr 11, 2018 6:41am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting chimam
I've been trading FX for 3 years full time. However I still can't dance properly. Are you guys able to dance with high accuracy now? Did anyone manage to achieve some degree of FTI's ability?
Hi - I suspect you are being rigid or looking for rigidity - and this all takes long time (or maybe I am slow). I spent ages being confused about FTI's thread but with the help of others here and lots of study it all starts to come together and now I wonder why I was so confused.

I would start by making sure you know what a trend is - look at d1 waves and the candles that make them up, then move down to h1 and examine each d1 wave in h1 and look at its composition then down to m5 to relate it to h1 waves and learn the relationship between them - study past waves for a bit so your brain learns about them - learning at first requires hard objective rules - on this you can build more mental maps with experience. Look at eurusd since 3 April 2018 or so from D1 candles down to h1 and look at every thrust and pullback in h1 and then down to m5 - how could this have been traded.

I would also do some paper exercises on MM - think about why we are entering scout(s) and then men at different times - identify when attack is advisable or not and rescue is advisable or not (don't need to rescue everything - focus on attack)- and why we take out some men at different times - what do these do to our break even and book - on paper look at what happens if every loss is 10 pips and every win is 20/30/40 etc pips (ie this represents more men) play around with nos to see what happens in different nos - may give you more confidence on mm - how to cut losses but let winners run (this is mm).

I would study 1 pair only to learn how to manage 1 and its relationship to others re RoK and news - both pre and post news (look at duck hunts after news - the setup is usually bring those peeps in then hit their stops to help me go the other way).

Look at momentum - how to recognise it. Look at when momentum has no follow through too.

Look at levels on chart where there may be buyers/sellers - and different reactions at those levels - learn about what to do if a or b happens at those levels what are signs of real buying/selling or lack of. Learn the patterns that may help you identify your best course of action and how the patterns are composed eg spring/upthrust.

I would identify patterns ie models that you can work away from in your head - and look at how patterns are formed where is the momentum inside them. FTI started you off with his good example: down thrust + abc PB then def (attack) action that he explained so there is a start for pullbacks.

There is lots to learn and experience but perseverance is everything.

Also make sure you really do understand what FTI says at the start of the thread (those first couple hundred pages)

Hope this helps

Phil and Jupiter have great threads for you to check out that will help.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,928
  • Apr 11, 2018 11:52am Apr 11, 2018 11:52am
Say for example, how do you differentiate a sweep from a trend when it is happening in real time. Entering a sweep believing it to be a trend will cause losses especially if try to rescue and trend is in opposite direction of entry. By the time recognize opposing trend too late, heavy losses.
  • #57,929
  • Apr 11, 2018 12:15pm Apr 11, 2018 12:15pm
Quoting foobar
Say for example, how do you differentiate a sweep from a trend when it is happening in real time. Entering a sweep believing it to be a trend will cause losses especially if try to rescue and trend is in opposite direction of entry. By the time recognize opposing trend too late, heavy losses.
Hi foobar

this why we use scouts, to get a real time 'feel' for what may be going on, scout is tiny size to actual attack trades for this very reason.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,930
  • Apr 11, 2018 11:36pm Apr 11, 2018 11:36pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi chimam it takes a while, a long while, fti says about 3-5 years, for some more and for some never. to answer your question have a look at some of the journals of people who post here, fti said he was not trying to make carbon copies, everyone does it a little differently but uses the core basics of what is here. regards Phil.
I would entirely agree with the above cited Phil's post. According to my own subjective observation, Fti's followers must each be doing at an individual fitting diversity range.
Being of certain life and trader's building value, in no way does this thread enable cloning of Fti. Moreover, it's unlikely to be literally considered or taken as an operator's manual.

Best regards and good fortune to Each and Everyone,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,931
  • Edited 12:57am Apr 12, 2018 12:35am | Edited 12:57am
Quoting foobar
Say for example, how do you differentiate a sweep from a trend when it is happening in real time. Entering a sweep believing it to be a trend will cause losses especially if try to rescue and trend is in opposite direction of entry. By the time recognize opposing trend too late, heavy losses.
I asked this very question not so long ago.... I then changed the question to myself to: if they are buying here what should I expect to see/feel and if they are selling here what should I expect to see/feel - for example a few posts ago I posted a link to FTI chart showing sweeping manoeuvre that was repeated on eurusd last NFP (no 2 things are exact but the models are there from the past to work away from) - I posted it to let FTI know of my thanks wherever he is - so have a look and see what could be seen and felt pre and post the NFP news (you'll not really feel the actuals of course) - see if you can tell the sweeping signs/results even in arrears - by studying past (a bit) and in live we can learn to identify potential signs and the signs we might place a trade on - of course it can still all go wrong and so you need to plan what to do if this happens too - remember AOW we must lay our plans before the battle and adapt them as required. A trend is a pattern/model - corrections/pullbacks have patterns. In programming there are also anti-patterns - I think trading has these too.

When we are learning we need objective models to work from - these are rigid/concrete - but with experience comes tweaking and more models (mental maps) - newbies like all to be objective with hard rules as they lack skill from the doing - experts use abstractions (almost unconsciously) - this is the feel/skill and takes time to gain like any skill. I know this from my masters many years ago in End User Programming where I studied a bit of differences btw different types of user/expertise. Basically learning is hard and takes time and experience.

I pestered FTI on this feel stuff many times - he never really answered as he wanted me to figure it out myself. It is not easy this trading stuff but worth the effort. FTI added men based on the feel ie the strength of the push and he could feel stop sweeping - learned over many years and his head would be full of mental maps to work away from and adapt in different situations.

Maybe you also need to look at your money management. Attacking correctly is VIP. FTI told me I think too fast and need to slow down - maybe you need to do same - do not rush in. What happens if you have 1/2 losses but each win is much bigger?

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,932
  • Apr 12, 2018 2:56am Apr 12, 2018 2:56am
It has just occurred to me that FTI was correct about me - slowing down makes for better planning, feel and execution - nimble but not frantic - and follow the leader if he wants go south he will let me know. If there are buyers they will show (Phil's signs of buying) - if sellers they should show up but things always change so ... planning....sequences (Jupiter)...

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,933
  • Apr 12, 2018 5:18am Apr 12, 2018 5:18am
Seriously guys. What happened?

No one needs to leave but every one needs to take a step back and some cold water.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,934
  • Apr 12, 2018 5:55am Apr 12, 2018 5:55am
Happy Thai New Year to all for tomorrow (stay dry or near some nice showers). Hope you enjoying some sun (well maybe not now be dark) - weather is miserable here you lucky things


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,935
  • Apr 12, 2018 5:58am Apr 12, 2018 5:58am
Quoting alexandria
Happy Thai New Year to all for tomorrow (stay dry or near some nice showers). Hope you enjoying some sun (well maybe not now be dark) - weather is miserable here you lucky things Alex
ahh yes yes, happy song kran to all thai peeps.
enter the water .. lol..

regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,936
  • Apr 12, 2018 11:25pm Apr 12, 2018 11:25pm
As Jupiter pointed out on his thread yesterday it has been a year today since our dear friend FTI has posted or logged in.

Wishing him (where ever he is) and his family peace and all the best.

to our friend FTI ...... and many thanks for what he has so kindly given us and created here.

Inserted Video
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,937
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:13am Apr 13, 2018 12:13am
Quoting phil13
.........it has been a year today since our dear friend FTI has posted or logged in. Wishing him (where ever he is) and his family peace and all the best. to our friend FTI ...... and many thanks for what he has so kindly given us and created here.

I fear the worst but I would not put it past FTI to just walk away as quickly as he came.... I hope he is having fun somewhere. I always smile when I think of him and always will... what a gift

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,938
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:34am Apr 13, 2018 12:34am
Hi Alex

I too fear the worst now my friend, but as our dear friend has taught me to only deal with the facts and no one with any credible links to him has come forth with any news of him, ‘not posting reason unknown’ is my view at the moment.

in his last few posts i could detect that he was not his usual self and felt that his condition had deteriorated some what.

All he ever asked of us was to help each other and when/if we get to a position that creates excess funds to help others in some way less fortunate than ourselves.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,939
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:37am Apr 13, 2018 12:37am
Quoting phil13
Hi Alex I too fear the worst now my friend, but as our dear friend has taught me to only deal with the facts and no one with any credible links to him has come forth with any news of him, ‘not posting reason unknown’ is my view at the moment. in his last few posts i could detect that he was not his usual self and felt that his condition had deteriorated some what. All he ever asked of us was to help each other and when/if we get to a position that creates excess funds to help others in some way less fortunate than ourselves. Regards Phil.
I felt the same on his last posting but for me he is around somewhere talking to me in my head sometimes (oops). His postings in this thread are constantly enlightening me.

Indeed with kindness and respect always help others where/when possible.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,940
  • Apr 19, 2018 11:39pm Apr 19, 2018 11:39pm
How are people doing here....hopefully people still remember me....
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