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Setting the Standard: Tradingwithw’s Trading Services

  • #121
  • Jan 9, 2019 6:51pm Jan 9, 2019 6:51pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Well done... Congratulations and i sincerely wish you all the best. Although I have never done it...trading money for others is a big deal. I admire those that do it correctly...regardless of returns. Doing things professionally and in accordance to the laws...is certainly a rarity around here. Anyhow best of luck. And I wish you massive success. Cheers Blue
Thank you very much bluesteele. It's quite expensive to get rolling ~$25k but worth it. I'll finally get to make my own damn hours
  • #122
  • Jan 9, 2019 6:58pm Jan 9, 2019 6:58pm
Quoting Tradingwithw
Some good progress on the European front! 2.1 inflation....if we can keep above this 2% marker we should start to see EU killing QE and raising rates! Take a look at USD when the FED ended QE......expecting to start buying Euros in the mid to long term as they should have the same outcome. Remember, economic policy TRUMPS fiscal policy (hehe) {image}
look back to july 2018, the ECB did end up killing QE
  • #123
  • Jan 9, 2019 7:00pm Jan 9, 2019 7:00pm
Am I crazy?

Lets try to hold this trade the whole year and see where it ends up. If I'm right about selling dollar this trade could be the best trade of the year?
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  • #124
  • Jan 9, 2019 8:47pm Jan 9, 2019 8:47pm
Quoting Tradingwithw
Am I crazy? Lets try to hold this trade the whole year and see where it ends up. If I'm right about selling dollar this trade could be the best trade of the year? {image}
it's a good position. if i were you, i'd add to it when it dips and when it goes your way..
  • #125
  • Jan 9, 2019 10:43pm Jan 9, 2019 10:43pm
Quoting Tradingwithw
FANTASTIC NEWS! I've just met with my compliance consultant, my lawyer, and my CPA- later this year I will be registering as a PRIVATE FUND. That means I will be able to accept deposited funds to manage in house up to $150MM. Now- I know this is scary for some, but PLEASE REMEMBER I will still be a Registered Investment Adviser and the United States SCC and SEC laws apply to me. This is contrary to what most are used to on FF. ANYONE MANAGING YOUR MONEY IN ANY CAPACITY MUST BE LEGALLY REGISTERED AND PASS EXAMINATIONS AND HAVE A LICENSE TO MANAGE...
Congrats on your annual performance and registration. Curious what exams you had to take to start your own private fund? Is it 100% in FX or equities/cfds/commodities etc and how long does it take? Last time I looked at this (for equities only), it was just too scary and full of legal hassles to deal with.
Staying in my lane...
  • #126
  • Jan 10, 2019 6:21am Jan 10, 2019 6:21am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Congrats on your annual performance and registration. Curious what exams you had to take to start your own private fund? Is it 100% in FX or equities/cfds/commodities etc and how long does it take? Last time I looked at this (for equities only), it was just too scary and full of legal hassles to deal with.
I can only speak for the US, and to be clear I haven't started anything yet- I've just gotten the "it's ok to do so". It largely depends on what you're wanting to do, what you're wanting to invest in and whose money you're accepting. Anyone who manages a firm (whether their own, a hedge fund, private equity, pension, etc) must have a series 65 license at minimum.

If you want to be a broker dealer or work for one, a series 7 will be needed. If you want to trade commodities futures and forex, a series 3. Insurance, options, etc everything has a license and exam. FINRA is the go to place.

http://www.finra.org/industry/qualification-exams

As for me- series 65 and series 3 is what I need to open what I'm looking to open. That's the cheap part, the $$$ comes in employing a lawyer, a CPA, and a compliance consultant. It's really not all that difficult to open your doors though, just a bunch of paperwork.
  • #127
  • Jan 10, 2019 6:26am Jan 10, 2019 6:26am
Also in the spirit of full disclosure (I did mention it already a few pages back) I've been in talks with a few Prop firms that have shown interest in bringing me on, but that's stalled. If there is a better deal there I might scrap the whole thing and move forward with a firm. I have private investors that are interested in me trading for them, that's why I'm currently going the route that I am, and signal providing is essentially …..boring. Still beats arguing with the weirdos across the forums though
  • #128
  • Jan 10, 2019 7:44am Jan 10, 2019 7:44am
Not looking for much of an exciting day today in the markets, large hands trading CPI directly has already positioned themselves. We'll likely stay in a small 100 pip range today 1.1500 to 1.1600. Looking to break either of these tomorrow-

IF CPI BEATS THAT WILL BE A BIG SURPRISE AND LEAD TO A KNEE JERK REACTION IN THE DOLLAR. Expected inline or below, which will still have a reaction- but less volatile.
  • #129
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:38am Jan 11, 2019 7:38am
As expected- inline inflation
  • #130
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:13am Jan 11, 2019 8:13am
Quoting Tradingwithw
Perhaps a EU sell @ 1.1602
Still a valid sell? This would be for a short term trade? I believe that you are long-term (2019) EUR/USD bullish?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #131
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:28am Jan 11, 2019 8:28am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Still a valid sell? This would be for a short term trade? I believe that you are long-term (2019) EUR/USD bullish?
Yup, all correct.

The 1.1600 trade could go as low as 1.1100, but I don't think it will. Pulled a bit off my 1.1500 trade, lost the rest at BE
  • #132
  • Jan 12, 2019 3:09pm Jan 12, 2019 3:09pm

Jan 14-18, 2019


Monday
Nothing of importance

Tuesday
US PPI - Like CPI, we are looking for inline or below expectations. This will help give us an idea on inflation and thus rate hikes.
Draghi Speaks - Not expecting much
Parliament BREXIT vote - heads up here, not sure what to expect as I stopped following it ages ago. GBP will likely be wacky and whipsawing. Not going to be trading it directly.

Wednesday
GBP CPI - Looking for this to be inline or better. Inflation in England should be raising.

Thursday
Nothing of importance

Friday
Nothing of importance

Other factors to consider
Same shit as the last few months
Should be a very technical week uninterrupted by fundamental data. Break out the pivot points!
  • #133
  • Jan 24, 2019 7:47am Jan 24, 2019 7:47am
Emergency closure of my beginning of year long. Bad bad vibes for Euro in the short and medium terms! Will update this afternoon, Euro is no longer a buy this year, looking to take the 1.1200 handle!!
  • #134
  • Jan 24, 2019 8:02am Jan 24, 2019 8:02am
Quoting Tradingwithw
Emergency closure of my beginning of year long. Bad bad vibes for Euro in the short and medium terms! Will update this afternoon, Euro is no longer a buy this year, looking to take the 1.1200 handle!!
Just curious but what changed your mind? The data from France or just the Brexit talks?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #135
  • Jan 24, 2019 8:09am Jan 24, 2019 8:09am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Just curious but what changed your mind? The data from France or just the Brexit talks?
Brexit will continue to weigh on the Euro and Pound. No news there.

ECB conf this morning signaled dark clouds. France and Germany are taking on water (these are the golden hens of the EU). World wide recession on the horizon. For EU specifically this could signal a sideways movement this year as both Dollar and Euro are a sell.

Chances of rate hikes in Euro this year are now zero. Draghi said unlikely till summer, but reality is whole year
  • #136
  • Jan 24, 2019 8:35am Jan 24, 2019 8:35am
There's a large player defending the 1.1300 handle, once they are shaken out EU should capitulate to below 1.1200. It may take another round of economic numbers from France, Italy, and Germany to get there- but for the near term (Q1) 1.1569 should mark the top.
  • #137
  • Jan 24, 2019 8:44am Jan 24, 2019 8:44am
A close below 1.1215 should do the trick
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  • #138
  • Jan 25, 2019 8:59am Jan 25, 2019 8:59am
Here we are again, as stated in the numerous weekly outlooks- TRUMP indictment edging closer, killing dollar.

Current move in EURO is on the DOLLAR side, not the EURO.
  • #139
  • Edited Jan 29, 2019 7:31am Jan 28, 2019 7:59am | Edited Jan 29, 2019 7:31am

Jan 28 - Feb 1, 2019


Monday
Draghi Speaks - Looking for more dovish comments regarding the status of inflation in the EURO zone

Tuesday
Consumer confidence - little impact

Wednesday
Hodgepoge of French and German numbers in the morning
FED Funds - the show stopper. There will be no rate hikes. Probably dovish comments from the FOMC. This is what the market is expecting, however; considering the dollar's drop due to Trump's cohorts being arrested, I would expect dollar to rise or stay neutral. This would be a fine opportunity to catch the weak handed bears by surprise.

Thursday
Lots of European numbers, will be a nice technical day.

Friday
US NFP - not expecting good numbers due to the recent Government shutdown. Inline or below is my call.

Other factors to consider
Watch Oil for output cuts
Watch news on Roger Stone to get any hints as to the status of TRUMP.

Generally, the move in EU late last week was due to the news on Roger Stone, and the issues that can bring about for the Trump Administration. Most likely, once the news normalizes, and Trump escapes unscathed again- the Euro will recoup those gains, and dollar will rise. Again, this is a great scenario to catch the weak handed dollar bears off guard. I'm heavily short EU this week, with several underwater. Still targeting the 1.1200 zone
  • #140
  • Feb 7, 2019 1:52pm Feb 7, 2019 1:52pm
so at what point did you tilt?
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