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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #37,721
  • Jan 9, 2019 9:13am Jan 9, 2019 9:13am
Salvation - E/J worked out fine for a long.
Looking at Dow and waiting for the one minute chart to stop thrashing around.

EDIT : Noting out of interest that EU climbed steadily and Dax dropped steadily whereas, today, the US open for Dow and Nas thrashed about - they usually calm down later -so it's a waiting game.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #37,722
  • Edited 12:24pm Jan 9, 2019 9:34am | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting Hickson
That could be fun chasing ADR on Aussie ... {image}
lol, these dreams can be over fast ... take the 20 and run it seems, it needs constant nursing probably ... at least it seems like this is not for a set & forget approach.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #37,723
  • Jan 9, 2019 11:56am Jan 9, 2019 11:56am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} The way I trade now, I would also say that adding a fib onto that would give you a grand idea of what point your retrace would start at should you get that fail.
Yes, I didn't mean to suggest it was part of the method, just that I personally will look to my other methods for confirmation and one of those uses fib retracement.

Once I get back on the computers, I will see if I can post a chart to show what I'm babbling about!
  • #37,724
  • Jan 9, 2019 12:50pm Jan 9, 2019 12:50pm
When I look at all these strategies on the forums again, and I did a lot this afternoon also in my own notes ... I keep on asking myself one question: Why do people never ask how to control risk there or where to put in stops, how to manage the trade to secure most profits while the trade is running?

They are only asking for the perfect entry, strategy, indicator etc. But I think exiting a position is much more important. A donkey can also press buy or sell, but where will he close out his position in the green? And more important, how and where will he close it if it does not go as he wishes? Food for thought ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #37,725
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:51pm Jan 9, 2019 1:51pm
Quoting Hickson
When I look at all these strategies on the forums again, and I did a lot this afternoon also in my own notes ... I keep on asking myself one question: Why do people never ask how to control risk there or where to put in stops, how to manage the trade to secure most profits while the trade is running? They are only asking for the perfect entry, strategy, indicator etc. But I think exiting a position is much more important. A donkey can also press buy or sell, but where will he close out his position in the green? And more important, how and where...
Because trade management, I think, is a very personal thing. I mean yeah, the strategy could tell you "SL at -10 and TP at +10" but if you do it like that you're following it blindly. Ask why you'd place those stops / targets there. An entry in itself is just an entry. A trader could exit that trade with a profit or a loss. Some traders could use the same method while being profitable and they might have a totally different trade management.

With time I realized that this is the true difficult aspect of trading, and I don't mean ultra-complex or anything like that, but because you need to take time to know yourself to make it your own, because you can't force yourself to trade like somebody else.

Side note regarding risk: some people neglect risk management, and those who do so shouldn't even be looking for strategies / methods in the first place because imho they're doomed from the start. Risk management is what keeps you in the game, and your method and trade management is what makes you money.
  • #37,726
  • Edited Jan 10, 2019 12:38am Jan 9, 2019 2:04pm | Edited Jan 10, 2019 12:38am
Quoting Rfs199
{quote}Because trade management, I think, is a very personal thing. I mean yeah, the strategy could tell you "SL at -10 and TP at +10" but if you do it like that you're following it blindly. Ask why you'd place those stops / targets there. An entry in itself is just an entry. A trader could exit that trade with a profit or a loss. Some traders could use the same method while being profitable and they might have a totally different trade management. With time I realized that this is the true difficult aspect of trading, and I don't mean ultra-complex...
Exactly. What is the point of even asking for an entry or a strategy without thinking about these things? It is useless. Not even to talk about trading psychology here ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #37,727
  • Jan 9, 2019 2:26pm Jan 9, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting Hickson
...only asking for the perfect entry, strategy, indicator etc...
Oh, I forgot. I remember when I first started with this and I saw all these threads with charts and 3154 indicators on them (you all know which charts I'm talking about, those like look like a 2d version of Times Square at night) and I thought "wow these guys must be pros" because it looked complicated, they were talking about indicators and settings and I couldn't understand what they were doing. Well in reality they didn't know what they were doing either. Spend a while in those threads, you'll see that they talk more about parameters / EAs than trading. I don't think they understand what those indicators actually show. You can imagine their results.

See, this is why I moved away from all that stuff and ended up looking at these threads more often. Nothing on those threads was really convincing. And I'm not talking about results, I just always felt confused, like you were just supposed to "believe" in the indicators without actually understanding them and why they worked. Then I saw traders using horizontal lines or things you can plot by yourself, using stats or something similar. If you ask "why does your method work?" and they say "because price usually does this and that based on statistics", that's much more convincing than "because if we use 3 EMAs with an RSI, a TDI, and some BBs we can get good entries but only if thissupercoolindicator isn't repainting".
  • #37,728
  • Jan 9, 2019 4:16pm Jan 9, 2019 4:16pm
Quoting Hickson
When I look at all these strategies on the forums again, and I did a lot this afternoon also in my own notes ... I keep on asking myself one question: Why do people never ask how to control risk there or where to put in stops, how to manage the trade to secure most profits while the trade is running? They are only asking for the perfect entry, strategy, indicator etc. But I think exiting a position is much more important. A donkey can also press buy or sell, but where will he close out his position in the green? And more important, how and where...
This brings me back to a useful training aid I recommend - where you enter blindly and then manage your way out of it.

You either go right into profit or you have to trade your way out of a losing position.

Yes, I used to deliberately let a trade go very, very, bad and then practice trading my way back, very useful when learning countering.

It's all about what you do after you pull the trigger.
  • #37,729
  • Edited 5:47pm Jan 9, 2019 5:32pm | Edited 5:47pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Here is what the setup would look like with 2 as a buffer. We would have to discuss the sl. Logically it could be the lower end of the bar as in the picture. It already broke and reversed. Then a target would have to be the ADR, but gotta read back how to set that. {image}
Well, this is weird - though I don't know why anything in this business surprises me any more, especially the differences between brokers.

Anyway, because of these differences my comment earlier is rendered moot, as on my main broker chart I don't get a break and a fail South at all.

Soooooooo...just for the hell of it, this is what I would have seen (here on H1 Chart)...

AU 00:00 - 04:00 (H1 Chart)

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On this, as my initial break was North, I would run a trailing fib from the box range low to the moving high.

Here the first move retraced and played around the 23.6.

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As time moved on, the first bigger candle went to around +15 before that move dropped back.

The trailing fib high is now off that candle and the following retrace took a trip down to test but failed to close below the 50. It then bounced back up.

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Of course, without drilling down, I don't know if price went on to the new high first before dropping back. If it did, then the fib would obviously have moved up.

If it had moved on to make the new high first, then that would have been around +25.

At that point in time, the 50% level is now exactly the same as the top of the box.

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That means that if price did now drop back all the way, it closes below the 50 and I would have exited that trade (assuming I hadn't just taken a BE+1 or whatever and assuming again that we won't have countered either by then, or played the retrace from the high at all).

I would then have run a fib inside the box limits and run that now.

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As such, price failed to close below that 50 and as it began to rise again, I would have re-entered, probably off the bounce from the box fib. These pips are now insurance against another half-hearted break.

The second bigger break went for +22.

It too, has now returned to the top edge of the box exactly.

So no, it's not set-and-forget if you get down-and-dirty with it like that - it also may seem hellishly complicated - but that's just my way of trading. Lines-within-lines...and it's actually a lot harder to explain than it is to execute.

Also...it may not have made the ADR, modest or otherwise (I actually don't know what the ADR was today) but it did (for me) make the +5.

If mine had failed like yours did, I would have entered as a Wick-Zone trade on the way back up (you could either run this as a counter or as a new trade after a stop), so again, my bank is kicking in before I get anywhere near a hoped-for break of the other side.

This is just so instinctual for me now - as I am sure it is for Billy - and I do have to remind myself that it may seem like Greek to others.
  • #37,730
  • Jan 9, 2019 9:26pm Jan 9, 2019 9:26pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} This brings me back to a useful training aid I recommend - where you enter blindly and then manage your way out of it. You either go right into profit or you have to trade your way out of a losing position. Yes, I used to deliberately let a trade go very, very, bad and then practice trading my way back, very useful when learning countering. It's all about what you do after you pull the trigger.
That's an interesting exercise, Lem. What do you mean by "trading my way back"? Just waiting for the price to come back, counter-trade, something else?
Buy low, sell high.
  • #37,731
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:23am Jan 10, 2019 12:23am
t 06-22.
Cable.....
sorry no chart again.
Todays adr (my calculation) for the previous 5 days are .
AT 06-00 (do not forget the High/Low will be adjusted as days runs.
High = 12879
Low = 12699
we have a small range of 24.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,732
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:24am Jan 10, 2019 12:24am
Cable...#
mini levels can be spotted by just looking at the 4 hour candles movement.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,733
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:26am Jan 10, 2019 12:26am
Cable.. the 00-00 4 hour bar range is 24 points..
High =12801
Low = 12777.
time now is 06-25. the 00-00 4 hour basr has not yet broken.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,734
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:29am Jan 10, 2019 12:29am
Quoting MrGreen95
Some thoughts for H4 trading... (We hedge if we go to -10) (M15) The idea is waiting always for the first breakout, that in a lot of cases is fake. How to manage the trade is up to you: we could just take +5 and leave, or we could use a trailing stop, or closing half after X pips, placing the SL to BE and let the market do the rest {image}
a good idea with the trailing stop.
a False Break is only false when you lose.
Hope you are well Mr G.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,735
  • Edited 1:36am Jan 10, 2019 12:33am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting Hickson
When I look at all these strategies on the forums again, and I did a lot this afternoon also in my own notes ... I keep on asking myself one question: Why do people never ask how to control risk there or where to put in stops, how to manage the trade to secure most profits while the trade is running? They are only asking for the perfect entry, strategy, indicator etc. But I think exiting a position is much more important. A donkey can also press buy or sell, but where will he close out his position in the green? And more important, how and where...
Hi H.
i think you might be complicating things by going with the norm.
I have a specific entry but an exit is the hard part.
that is why i traded in stages.
make 5% get out.
If it fails move to next phase blah blah.
as long as i got 5 and i did not care how many points it moved.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,736
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:35am Jan 10, 2019 12:35am
Quoting Rfs199
{quote}Because trade management, I think, is a very personal thing. I mean yeah, the strategy could tell you "SL at -10 and TP at +10" but if you do it like that you're following it blindly. Ask why you'd place those stops / targets there. An entry in itself is just an entry. A trader could exit that trade with a profit or a loss. Some traders could use the same method while being profitable and they might have a totally different trade management. With time I realized that this is the true difficult aspect of trading, and I don't mean ultra-complex...
sounds good.
as long as you have more money at the end of the week you are doing it right.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,737
  • Jan 10, 2019 12:50am Jan 10, 2019 12:50am
gf is not working today but she has asked me to help her.
WHAT YOU ASK?????
she has a path to move. (that is not gardening) 4" concrete on a base lol. and very long.
I will probably do it next week, hire the breakers as i cannot get a digger onto site.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,738
  • Jan 10, 2019 1:15am Jan 10, 2019 1:15am
Cable.... t 07-13

The 00-00 4 hour bar low has broke for a nice 10.
i am only posting this info as people ask.
hopefully down another 90 lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,739
  • Jan 10, 2019 1:16am Jan 10, 2019 1:16am
Cable, first low level is 12731
first high level is 12813
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,740
  • Jan 10, 2019 1:22am Jan 10, 2019 1:22am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} This brings me back to a useful training aid I recommend - where you enter blindly and then manage your way out of it. You either go right into profit or you have to trade your way out of a losing position. Yes, I used to deliberately let a trade go very, very, bad and then practice trading my way back, very useful when learning countering. It's all about what you do after you pull the trigger.
Maybe it works for some. But I believe it mostly trains bad habits like letting losers go against you.

I can say that because in my early days my entries could be classified as blind and I did not use stops, only thing I could do was hoping for the best to avoid another margin call or work my way out somehow like you described ... it was hard to unwire this. Very hard. Since these days, not having a solid risk plan with exact scenarios that are understandable by a track record just makes me cringe.

With the hard fact that most retail traders simply cannot trade, I think the number of profitable traders who counter might be even lower. Trading is already hard on human psyche. A super individual and discretionary countering risk plan might be just for you, Billy and five other people sitting on their desk somewhere (talking about retail, not huge banks).

I have seen tons of fake gurus here come and go without stops and "fixing" trades. When I checked my ignore list some time ago, nobody has been around for years. Telling ...

Please do not feel offended by my view of this topic, I know you have tons of very interesting knowledge and might be the exception with your risk management plan. Because you can say when and how you will counter. The fake gurus can only after the facts.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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