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Pivot Trading

  • #23,861
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:39pm Jan 2, 2019 8:39pm
This is life of traders, huh i got hit with my EurJpy and GbpJpy..
Even i just wait for a Long Setup WS .786 with SL bit below WS 1.00 with the confluence
of Major in weekly chart for the past 3 yrs.

GO GO GO.. keep going .... still survive. Happy New Year
  • #23,862
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:55pm Jan 2, 2019 8:55pm
Quoting Flyre
GBPAUD 2k pip.... what {image}
just how brokers have different "liquidity providers" at times when highway robbery is allowed.
GbpAud
your chart Oanda high: 2.0274
on IC Markets chart: 1.8419
on Axitrader chart: 1.8826

even between this other 2 there is huge HUGE difference. But Oanda beat them with a further 400 pips. talk about bucket shop clearing out the books!!

Quoting kellycml
{quote} I had the same pain last quarter ... starting again with better MM. Not giving up.
in some instances money management can be as sound as it gets, and still get slaughtered.
trading by the "book"
if you have a trade risking 1-2% of account say on a 20 pip SL, then the next fill is happen to be 200+ pips bellow your stop, you lost not 2%, but 20% of your account.
have more than one trade like that, and game over for that day.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=864836

of course one can get lucky, but this time the crash was also in the direction where the market was moving, and many pairs already had moved more than their ADR for the day.
i was sleeping,
but would be real curious what was the spread on this pair at Oanda during the crash, if someone theoretically was able to enter near the top?
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...6&d=1546470266
even or regular higher impact news Oanda widen their spread often to 50-70 pips, suspect they had spread int he 100s this time...would one be risking entry with that if happen to be watching live the event?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #23,863
  • Jan 2, 2019 9:58pm Jan 2, 2019 9:58pm
What jus happened. I was sleeping. Hope traders did not get wiped out by that crash. In terms of my setups nothing has changed, still on track and i am still on the sidelines WAITING.
Wait for the system to show you the trade!
  • #23,864
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:19am Jan 3, 2019 1:19am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} just how brokers have different "liquidity providers" at times when highway robbery is allowed. GbpAud your chart Oanda high: 2.0274 on IC Markets chart: 1.8419 on Axitrader chart: 1.8826 even between this other 2 there is huge HUGE difference. But Oanda beat them with a further 400 pips. talk about bucket shop clearing out the books!! {quote} in some instances money management can be as sound as it gets, and still get slaughtered. trading by the "book" if you have a trade risking 1-2% of account say on a 20 pip SL, then the next fill is...
all this just to see how a little retailer is at the bottom of this big game,those who got that star wars spreads and charts freeze of course will never be able to fight against broker ,they will always come with ''high liquidity=high slippage = dangerous trading conditions'' and problem solved. but in the end a proper MM will save you from max disaster and can limit your loss when such crash catch you on the wrong side.
I am still curios to see some guys here who was long on CAD and AUD how was this for them,and maybe they will post some screens so this just to be a part of the lesson for the community for the future.
cheer up
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #23,865
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:30am Jan 3, 2019 1:30am
Quoting Husky77
{quote} all this just to see how a little retailer is at the bottom of this big game,those who got that star wars spreads and charts freeze of course will never be able to fight against broker ,they will always come with ''high liquidity=high slippage = dangerous trading conditions'' and problem solved. but in the end a proper MM will save you from max disaster and can limit your loss when such crash catch you on the wrong side. I am still curios to see some guys here who was long on CAD and AUD how was this for them,and maybe they will post some...
Protect yourself at all times....I am a fan of MMA
Wait for the system to show you the trade!
  • #23,866
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:32am Jan 3, 2019 1:32am
Quoting Husky77
{quote} all this just to see how a little retailer is at the bottom of this big game,those who got that star wars spreads and charts freeze of course will never be able to fight against broker ,they will always come with ''high liquidity=high slippage = dangerous trading conditions'' and problem solved. but in the end a proper MM will save you from max disaster and can limit your loss when such crash catch you on the wrong side. I am still curios to see some guys here who was long on CAD and AUD how was this for them,and maybe they will post some...
As you wish

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I had max DD of 50% , and yes i still long, im waiting to see weekly candle close.
  • #23,867
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:37am Jan 3, 2019 1:37am
Quoting dornachum203
{quote} As you wish {image} {image} {image} {image} I had max DD of 50% , and yes i still long, im waiting to see weekly candle close.
50% of your entire account balance?
  • #23,868
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:53am Jan 3, 2019 1:53am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} 50% of your entire account balance?
Yep , now I'm standing at 17 % DD which is a lot, didn't expect this but who does? in my view, it was just large stops clean for the new year.
Hope until weekend it will back positive.
  • #23,869
  • Jan 3, 2019 2:19am Jan 3, 2019 2:19am
I was short EA yesterday, heavy position, just got out before I went to bed early with a nice gain.....phew...pure luck.

Next year....no trading in December or 1st week of Jan.
  • #23,870
  • Jan 3, 2019 2:23am Jan 3, 2019 2:23am
Quoting dornachum203
{quote} Yep , now I'm standing at 17 % DD which is a lot, didn't expect this but who does? in my view, it was just large stops clean for the new year. Hope until weekend it will back positive.
I wouldnt worry Im looking to long on some of these pairs too look at UJ simple stop hunt down Clear all those sellers waiting at the low, maybe a spike up nex clear the buys then buy in? Who knows
  • #23,871
  • Edited 3:46am Jan 3, 2019 3:11am | Edited 3:46am
This looks crazy
60 pips average move and then BOOM ... 400

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  • #23,872
  • Jan 3, 2019 3:16am Jan 3, 2019 3:16am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} just how brokers have different "liquidity providers" at times when highway robbery is allowed. GbpAud your chart Oanda high: 2.0274 on IC Markets chart: 1.8419 on Axitrader chart: 1.8826 even between this other 2 there is huge HUGE difference. But Oanda beat them with a further 400 pips. talk about bucket shop clearing out the books!! {quote} in some instances money management can be as sound as it gets, and still get slaughtered. trading by the "book" if you have a trade risking 1-2% of account say on a 20 pip SL, then the next fill is...
I like IC Markets. Yesterday worked very well in extreme volatility. Anyway had a frozen feed in AC ( more 2 minutes ). Anyway this gave me advantage because i closed even better ( not was my initial plan ). About Oanda just i dont understand how still have reputation
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #23,873
  • Jan 3, 2019 3:27am Jan 3, 2019 3:27am
Quoting langtoni
I was short EA yesterday, heavy position, just got out before I went to bed early with a nice gain.....phew...pure luck. Next year....no trading in December or 1st week of Jan.
it isnt really that.
January itself has little to do, it was a usual higher ADR trading day on the 2nd.
the "crash" happened in the dead hours, after US close, before Tokyo or Sydney open.
it is also clear to see that broker to broker, the scenario played out differently.
see my earlier comment on how between brokers could have a further 1600 pips difference in quoted price, between their extreme.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post11840401
this is something that should never be the case, and it often is.
imagine, you are a trader with 10k account, and a single 0.4 lot trade, with 50 pips SL....risking 2% of your equity; a prudent enough 2% risk with a hard SL.
comes to crash, stops get ignored, and filled at the price where the broker could find a trade, if his platform havent freeze yet... ie. turned off until they internally assess their position, and match the trades as possible best suit them.
remember, most brokers at best hedge part of their risk to outside, and even non full fledge bucket shops run a hybrid orderbook to their clients.

then comes the time to find out how you fared, and that is where it is really hazy.
GbpAud
your chart Oanda high: 2.0274
on IC Markets chart: 1.8419
on Axitrader chart: 1.8826

what if you or lucky, and trading with broker A, and your loss is say 400 pips on the crash, and your account lose -2000$ on the example trade vs 2% risk "secured" by your hard SL?
not great, but still enough to live another day. -20%.

what if you are with broker B, and your loss is a further up to 1800 pips away, same time, same pair, just bcos your broker from somewhere quote that price? and you find out that you got hit with up to -2200 pips loss vs your 50 pips hard SL, and your 2% risk suddenly translate to up to -11000$...not only leaving you with a loss, but with a negative balance of -1000$ ( what your bucketshop broker gracefully excuse you if you deposit money again!).

and that only from the unknown factor what otherwise "reputable and regulated" broker you selected, and even then with also the luck on your chosen pair in the moment of the crash.

just for a second, imagine if your government lottery would pay the prize money based on location or weather you buy morning or evening the winning ticket.

and as a final thought, even unleveraged, at 1:1, a possible 2200 pip drop can hurt ( see that oanda example)...10k account it means 0.1 lot ( 10k value), and a drop would still be up to 22%.
these crashes not only hurt the small guys, but a lot of not so small ones as well, and on a similar drop ( 2015, CHF) a handful of smaller and bigger brokers went bankrupt...

Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I like IC Markets. Yesterday worked very well in extreme volatility. Anyway had a frozen feed in AC ( more 2 minutes ). Anyway this gave me advantage because i closed even better ( not was my initial plan ). About Oanda just i dont understand how still have reputation
agree, Braintheboss!
if any Oanda customers would ask them the simple Q: how on earth 1800 pip difference is possible on their quote vs some other broker(s)?!?!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #23,874
  • Jan 3, 2019 3:49am Jan 3, 2019 3:49am
I should name this post "the day after".

Like many other fellow traders here I've been hit by this currency "flash crash" or call it the way you want.
My loss was "only" 18% of my working capital thanks to very conservative MM.
However not the best way to start the new year and all in all a big loss and even bigger lesson from forex market.
Tonight practical demonstration that anything can happen.

I look at the positive side that means I've still money to trade and to recover.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #23,875
  • Jan 3, 2019 6:35am Jan 3, 2019 6:35am
UC Short
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  • #23,876
  • Jan 3, 2019 6:49am Jan 3, 2019 6:49am
hello davit.. im start using this pivot method for 1 month already..
big complemantary for you because this method is so amazing...
keep up a good work...thanx for introduce this method...God bless..
Know The Presence Of The Market
  • #23,877
  • Edited 9:00am Jan 3, 2019 7:07am | Edited 9:00am
2018 ended with loss due to EC short which I had to close.

Didn't have any AUD or JPY trades on so flash crash didn't affect me this time.

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  • #23,878
  • Jan 3, 2019 7:37am Jan 3, 2019 7:37am
USDCAD - profit from PIVOT to s78
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  • #23,879
  • Jan 3, 2019 8:11am Jan 3, 2019 8:11am
Happy New Year Guys!
Glad I had closed all my Yen pairs prior with a loss and indeed glad.Spikes yesterday was insane and would of hit margin account wipe out for sure.But survived without a scratch.

Took some EC profits and love to see it bounce up to reload shorts
EA still has huge potential.AUD has been oversold cross the board.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #23,880
  • Jan 3, 2019 8:26am Jan 3, 2019 8:26am
Kind of lost faith on Oanda
Spikes there seems longer then other brokers around 450pip drop in seconds.Glad was not on receiving end of it
I am certain lots of accounts got wiped outNext year taking Dec and 1st week of Jan out.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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