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Pro traders who do not use SL, What about Black Swans?

  • #321
  • Nov 21, 2018 3:24pm Nov 21, 2018 3:24pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} That begs the question - what is the proper SL placement? Tight or wide? Large positions or small? Is there a correlation between the size of the position you take and the size of your SL? Does time frame matter - If so, what type of SL used for each time frame? Stop Loss vs. Trailing stop - is there a better proven strategy between the two and why? I'm trying to figure this stuff on my own out here - could use some tips.
Define tight/wide, large/small please.
In general the higher the time frame, the wider the stop(for me) and i risk the same amount of % no matter how big my stop is. Trailing can be useful but personally i dont use it.

By proper i meant proper positioning of stop and once again sorry for offtopic for the 208th time. Feel free to delete it if needed.
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #322
  • Nov 21, 2018 3:39pm Nov 21, 2018 3:39pm
Quoting Ray9
Alright..Let me ask a different question..Is your SL really respected when there is a major black swan?
Most likely, no.
  • #323
  • Nov 21, 2018 4:06pm Nov 21, 2018 4:06pm
There was a black swan this week. Here is a hedge fund that's blown up and I heard there were others too. Here is the main guy apologising to clients on YouTube

Inserted Video
  • #324
  • Nov 24, 2018 5:58am Nov 24, 2018 5:58am
Quoting EcoTrader
There was a black swan this week. Here is a hedge fund that's blown up and I heard there were others too. Here is the main guy apologising to clients on YouTube https://youtu.be/VNYNMM0hXXY
He seems genuine for the most part but he is overacting a bit.
  • #325
  • Nov 24, 2018 7:56am Nov 24, 2018 7:56am
Quoting EcoTrader
There was a black swan this week. Here is a hedge fund that's blown up and I heard there were others too. Here is the main guy apologising to clients on YouTube https://youtu.be/VNYNMM0hXXY
Eco, this was not really a black swan. Black swans are things that mom and pop investor hear about on the CBS evening news that adversely affect the 401k and IRA that they have for an extended period of time. There is a difference between a market shock and a black swan. This guy sold NAKED options on natty. I might have felt better for him if had done some butterflies or condors that he could not adjust out of without a loss, but then he would have hedged on a negatively correlated instrument to try and crash the plane softly.

NAKED options??? Who does that?

People who trade with OPM, that's who.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #326
  • Nov 24, 2018 8:07am Nov 24, 2018 8:07am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Eco, this was not really a black swan. Black swans are things that mom and pop investor hear about on the CBS evening news that adversely affect the 401k and IRA that they have for an extended period of time. There is a difference between a market shock and a black swan. This guy sold NAKED options on natty. I might have felt better for him if had done some butterflies or condors that he could not adjust out of without a loss, but then he would have hedged on a negatively correlated instrument to try and crash the plane softly. NAKED options???...

I agree the instrument is questionable but black swans don't have to be scoped an an entire market or take place over a prolonged period of time, it can be on a single instrument and in a single session. Take Chf for example when the SNB removed the peg. In this instance the price of natural gas claimed 18% in a day which is the most it has moved in a single session in 14 years. That is a black swan event for anyone who isn't using a stop or stupid instruments like naked options.
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  • #327
  • Nov 24, 2018 8:29am Nov 24, 2018 8:29am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I agree the instrument is questionable but black swans don't have to be scoped an an entire market or take place over a prolonged period of time, it can be on a single instrument and in a single session. Take Chf for example when the SNB removed the peg. In this instance the price of natural gas claimed 18% in a day which is the most it has moved in a single session in 14 years. That is a black swan event for anyone who isn't using a stop or stupid instruments like naked options. {image}
I understand. Issue of semantics I suppose. If you are a natty gas trader, that might hurt.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #328
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:35pm Jan 2, 2019 8:35pm
They did it again !
i lose money for a living
  • #329
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:43pm Jan 2, 2019 8:43pm
Quoting tylerbose
They did it again !

Lol, sure they did. Haha
when you can accurately predict the future, you leave nothing to chance.
  • #330
  • Jan 3, 2019 1:23am Jan 3, 2019 1:23am
Quoting zizoo
{quote} Lol, sure they did. Haha
The YEN played a Japanese Black Swan: all majors went through the floor. And in todays European session, climbing out of the Bottomless hole?
A new consciousness for Humanity?
Being now: Are WE a Holy Grail? Return Today: na
  • #331
  • Apr 5, 2019 7:29pm Apr 5, 2019 7:29pm
Quoting EcoTrader
This guy doesn't use a stop Listen to 079: The biggest financial experiment the world has ever seen—global macro investor, Raoul Pal by Chat With Traders #np on #SoundCloud https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-tra...macro-investor
Hi there!

I searched macro as I'm looking for other macro traders to bounce ideas off. Noticed you mention Raoul Paul. I have learnt lots from him and was not actually aware of the interview you posted! listening to it as we speak. Do you have a macro strategy?

Cheers
Jack
  • #332
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:26pm Apr 29, 2019 4:26pm
Who was expecting this? Were you prepared?
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  • #333
  • Apr 29, 2019 6:50pm Apr 29, 2019 6:50pm
Quoting Scorp1on1
Who was expecting this? Were you prepared? {image}
Was that just on one particular brokers platform?
  • #334
  • Apr 29, 2019 6:59pm Apr 29, 2019 6:59pm
Quoting captaincobra
{quote} Was that just on one particular brokers platform?
The drop is visible on Pepperstone. Not sure about other brokers or the broker the previous poster is using.
  • #335
  • Apr 29, 2019 11:46pm Apr 29, 2019 11:46pm
Quoting captaincobra
{quote} Was that just on one particular brokers platform?
Yes. This is one 15 min candle@Pepperstone.. Thankfully. I don’t usually trade this pair... but I cannot believe that a broker has over 475 pips drop!!!
  • #336
  • Apr 30, 2019 8:27am Apr 30, 2019 8:27am
Quoting Scorp1on1
{quote} Yes. This is one 15 min candle@Pepperstone.. Thankfully. I don’t usually trade this pair... but I cannot believe that a broker has over 475 pips drop!!!

Wow, good to know. Clearly a scamming/dishonest broker...

I suspect they were anticipating a rise in the pair, and wanted to clear out the LONGs off their orderbook in advance of the move.
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  • #337
  • Apr 30, 2019 8:39am Apr 30, 2019 8:39am
Quoting Scorp1on1
Who was expecting this? Were you prepared? {image}
Contact your broker ASAP, My peperstone account does not show that at all.
Neither does anyone of the my other 3 brokers on live accounts. That must be an isolated incident.

If you got taken out contact them. If they don't resolve the issue then report them. ,
Please let us know what broker that is.
  • #338
  • May 18, 2019 9:36pm May 18, 2019 9:36pm
Taleb: People should not try to predict 'black swan' events
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nassi...180000366.html
  • #339
  • Last Post: Feb 22, 2020 12:07pm Feb 22, 2020 12:07pm
It seems to me that most of your people should not give up stop-loss, because it is with its help that you can properly distribute your capital and adjust your work so that you can feel safe and in case of some unforeseen situation you can preserve the bulk of your capital. In my opinion, working without it can be quite exhausting and time-consuming, especially for a beginner who hasn't yet fully mastered the market and can't always navigate how to close this or that trade, how to include other assets in the trade, etc. So, yes, of course you can work without stop-loss, but I think that you can come to this only after you have been able to bring your statistics to the most stable indicators. But not before.
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