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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #221
  • Dec 30, 2018 6:55pm Dec 30, 2018 6:55pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Moneymaker2... what happened to Moneymaker1? A "professional trader" that cries because leverage was limited to 50:1 and that this was the reason that made him unprofitable, combined with the notion that he became profitable again by using an "offshore broker" offering high leverage again .... Jesus, this is so far off from the slightest proffesional level that I can never ever take you serious again. Please leave this tread and never come back.
50:1 didn't make me unprofitable, it just limited my profits, so I went back to options trading. To make the same money, I would have to trade 8 times what I was trading with, and it was more profitable to just trade options if I was going to do that. And trading with an "offshore broker" simply means a broker that accepts US residents and offers high leverage. My trading style or methods didn't change, so making money by trading currency again should not be a shock since I was making money before I stopped trading forex. Not sure what your definition of a "professional trader" is, but my definition is very strict. I always thought of a "professional" as someone that makes a living doing ONLY that one thing. Like you couldn't a "professional artist" just because you sold a painting once. So by my definition, though I do consider myself a trader, I don't consider myself a pro trader since I also have another source of income (retirement).

If you are a good trader, what sets your profits is how much you put into the trade, right? If you predict GBP/JPY is going up 100 pips (and you are correct), the pair doesn't care if you have 0.01 lots or 100 lots, it is going to do what it is going to do. Same with options, because NFLX doesn't care if you have 1 contract or 500 contracts, it is going to do what it is going to do. In currency trading, if you get good at predicting price direction and are willing to accept smaller, high confidence trades, leverage becomes an asset. Just another tool to be used. If you are scared of leverage, it means you are not at the level to use it to your advantage, that's all. Doesn't mean you won't ever be, just means you aren't there yet.

For me, I just feel it is a lot more productive to focus on actually making money trading rather than just trying to convince everyone else that you can't! Besides, you'll never convince people because there are too many making money doing what you say can't be done. If you really want to make a difference, go save a rainforest, because you're just spinning your wheels trying to save us traders from those evil markets...….
  • #222
  • Jan 9, 2019 11:26am Jan 9, 2019 11:26am
Quoting Simply-Me
{quote} 1:200
You will learn it the hard way.... I can predict that in your case with 100% certainty.
  • #223
  • Jan 9, 2019 11:54am Jan 9, 2019 11:54am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Besides, you'll never convince people because there are too many making money doing what you say can't be done...….
HaHaaaa Haaa Haaaa....looks like I hurt your affiliate business ;-) .... try harder.

I already have convinced a lot of people and will continue to do so. Every lie can finally be brought down.... the profitable retail forex myth will be no exception.
The regulators are on the right track. It took very long but they start to move faster...
  • #224
  • Edited 2:07pm Jan 9, 2019 12:49pm | Edited 2:07pm
.... an example for affilate marketing....

Traderdale...looks like this fishing trip came finally to an end her on FF.... membership revoked

https://traderdale.idevaffiliate.com/index.php

Why does he pay to get new victims buying his indicators......? Any thoughts?

If his customers would have earned money there would be really no need for affiliate marketing... he rather would have to invest the money in new IT capacity and staff to cope with alle the new customers he would certainly get by word of mouth....

.... but once again the truth is: Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers!
No matter how fancy your indicator is.

PS:

I like this one from his homepage risk disclosure....

Live Trades
This presentation is for educational purposes only and the opinions expressed are those of the presenter only. All trades presented are NOT TRADED IN A LIVE ACCOUNT and should be considered hypothetical.

He trades in a non live account.... that sounds like one with delay.... not so hard to trade if you know what's comming in the next several hours, days...... :-)
So funny...it hurts.
  • #225
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:39pm Jan 9, 2019 1:39pm
Wow! I am sorry that you had to go through whatever it was that you went through that beat up your ego so badly, I really am. For you to spend so much time in the past 2+ years on a forex forum trying to convince others that people on a forex forum are losers is just really sad and such a waste of time and energy. It's like someone that got jilted at the alter spending years bad-mouthing women to whomever will listen. Or maybe you just really have no life or friends to hang out with or something, which I hope is not the case, because that is actually even MORE sad if it is....

If you like the idea of being a trader but currency trading is not for you, perhaps you should consider trading stocks, futures, and/or options. Many, many people are extremely successful trading those.

But if trading is just not your forte, consider getting a hobby, or traveling, or joining some group to make new friends, because the constant bellowing about people THAT YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW being losers or scammers or liars or whatever just makes you look small and petty. You have to remember, in the big scheme of things, the people that are making money trading currency really don't care that someone says they can't.....

Just my two pips.....
  • #226
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:47pm Jan 9, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Wow! I am sorry that you had to go through whatever it was that you went through that beat up your ego so badly, I really am. For you to spend so much time in the past 2+ years on a forex forum trying to convince others that people on a forex forum are losers is just really sad and such a waste of time and energy. It's like someone that got jilted at the alter spending years bad-mouthing women to whomever will listen. Or maybe you just really have no life or friends to hang out with or something, which I hope is not the case, because that is actually...
i can ask you the same question
why you spend time on a forex forum trying to convince others that trading is profitable without posting even one proof ??

it smells like you are fishing from the moon baby

if its profitable, you are a happy man, show us how or just shut up already we get enough like this bs words everywhere

always cheers, at least we pass the time without killing each other, the box is not that bad
  • #227
  • Jan 9, 2019 2:17pm Jan 9, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting moneymaker2
... and such a waste of time and energy. ......
No, it isn't. I'll do my share to drive up the sales and marketing costs, as well as the regulation of forex brokers till their business model falls apart.... and the world will become a better place afterwards. People should deploy their talents to productive things instead wasting time and energy shoveling currencies back and forth with absolutely no reason other than speculation / aka gambling..... this is the real waste of time, money, talent and energy!

Forex is a negative sum game.....get it, or lose it!
  • #228
  • Edited 11:10pm Jan 9, 2019 2:21pm | Edited 11:10pm
What is a "moon baby"?......Just kidding!

Actually, I am mainly back on here now for the "Let's Trade Options" thread, and you can see my trades in real time.

I was very profitable in currency before the CFTC dropped the leverage to 50:1 and then I just stopped trading forex and focused on options. I have just recently opened up an account with a broker that accepts US residents with a little higher leverage (I hate the MT4 platform, though) and so far have done well using the same methods I used before, though my main focus is still options.

I will be more than happy to show you what I do if you PM me, and I'll show you past statements as well, but I do not put stuff out on the forum. I have seen too many people get attacked by people with crushed egos because they feel if they can't be successful, no one can. And I don't have the time or energy to deal with all of that.

I won't be able to show you exactly how I decide my option picks, however, because unlike currency, it actually DOES matter if a lot of people use the same method, as that can drive the price of the options one way or the other based on supply and demand. But there are numerous good option trading books out there, and stock books to determine movement of the stock itself.

I do agree this is a non-physical way to pass the time, but I do wish there was less negativity on the site....

As you say, always cheers!
  • #229
  • Jan 9, 2019 3:43pm Jan 9, 2019 3:43pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} People should deploy their talents to productive things instead wasting time and energy shoveling currencies back and forth with absolutely no reason other than speculation....
Well, you have to remember that speculation in itself is not a bad thing; it actually drives many businesses and individual's money making ideas. A used care salesman buys his cars at action with the hope of selling them for more. People buy gold coins not as a plan should the economy be destroyed, but in the hope that it becomes worth more in the future. Nearly everything that is sold is sold at a profit, and that profit comes from the difference between what it was purchased and what it was sold. From diamonds to Beanie Babies to baseball cards to stocks to real estate and a million other items, all purchased with the hope that in the future it will be worth more than it currently is (speculation).

If you want to make a difference, warn people about not recycling plastics. Everyone knows about plastic, but probably 90% of the world's population couldn't tell you what forex trading means, and therefore would not be affected in any way, shape or form if retail forex was outlawed tomorrow!

Recycle plastics! Now THAT will make the world a better place.....
  • #230
  • Jan 9, 2019 4:13pm Jan 9, 2019 4:13pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
.... an example for affilate marketing.... Traderdale...looks like this fishing trip came finally to an end her on FF.... membership revoked https://traderdale.idevaffiliate.com/index.php Why does he pay to get new victims buying his indicators......? Any thoughts? If his customers would have earned money there would be really no need for affiliate marketing... he rather would have to invest the money in new IT capacity and staff to cope with alle the new customers he would certainly get by word of mouth.... .... but once again the truth...
hahahha

i think he forgot to update for 2019 hahahah

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  • #231
  • Mar 30, 2019 9:05am Mar 30, 2019 9:05am
Current cost of carry for TRY pairs as of today:

To hold 100'000 currency long against TRY, it currently cost you per day:

Long (pips) Short (pips) Long (USD) Short (USD)
EUR/TRY -178.65 10.86 -319.94 19.44
TRY/JPY -0.52 -6.49 -4.66 -58.50
USD/TRY -154.03 6.91 -275.86 12.38

So this means about
100% interest a year to short TRY against USD - wow, that's kind of greedy.
117% interest a year to short TRY against EUR - even better.
This is about 4 - 5 times higher than the offical rate of 24%. Currently savings accounts in TRY give you about 17% interest a year..

Even though the cost of carry is ridiculous to short TRY, it should be mentioned the broker I looked at just pays 4% and 7% interest if you go long TRY. Think about who is pocketing the differences and look at this extrem asymmetry. Why are you getting 10 - 13% less than with money in a savings account in Turkey?

If your broker applied even higher swap rates (some have talked of swap rates up to 2-3% a day!!!) they would take advantage of the current situation to pocket the money of their customers stupid enough to use their TRY CFD's. Document it in detail with screenshots and publish it here on FF as a warning to others and as a help for victims to go after their brokers if they really cheated them with massive swap rates far from reality.

Is this market still functioning? Nope.
Is it reasonable to trade TRY with any broker today or even do carry trades under the current circumstances? Nope - because now you have a negative sum game for losers with an extra 13 -117% swap penalty! So if you think it can't get worse.... here you see it always can.

Currently the TRY crosses haven't yet fully collapsed thanks to these extrem measures, but what does this mean in the longer run? Turkey has a lot of exernal debt denominated in foreign currency, because of the very high rates in Turkey. Turkey needs foreign investors. So at one point something has to give like in the SNB event but with one very massive difference. While it is a "luxus problem" to have a currency that is too strong, it's exactly the oposite if the currency is too weak.

I see similar problems with raw material CFD's. The cost of carry of these products over longer periods is sometimes ridiculusly high if you calculate them.
  • #232
  • Mar 30, 2019 9:17am Mar 30, 2019 9:17am
you are right, some swaps applied are just plain robbery.
i like also these ones, 2 cross i personally have to deal with in everyday life ( not online trading):
talk about win-win...for the broker!!

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there is always, always another trade!!
  • #233
  • Apr 15, 2019 3:29am Apr 15, 2019 3:29am
We estimate that these proposals could reduce annual losses for retail customers of UK firms by between £267.4m to £450.7m per year.

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! You need facts?
The leverage cap won't make retail gamblers positive, but they will lose less..... which is a good start.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/...n-other-retail


We are proposing permanent rules to require firms to:

  1. limit leverage to between 30:1 and 2:1 by collecting minimum margin as a percentage of the overall exposure that the CFD provides
  2. close out a customer’s position when their funds fall to 50% of the margin needed to maintain their open positions on their CFD account
  3. provide protections that guarantee a client cannot lose more than the total funds in their CFD account
  4. stop offering monetary and non-monetary inducements to encourage trading, and
  5. provide a standardised risk warning, which requires firms to tell potential customers the percentage of their retail client accounts that make losses

These measures are largely the same as ESMA’s temporary measures. However, we are also proposing to extend our rules to closely substitutable products, including so-called turbo certificates. We are also proposing 30:1 leverage limits for CFDs referencing certain government bonds (compared to 5:1 under ESMA’s measures).

  • #234
  • Apr 15, 2019 3:36am Apr 15, 2019 3:36am
The facts roll in an the continuous lies of the snake oil sellers are getting fully exposed!

https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-new...tail-investors

NCAs’ analyses on CFD trading across different EU jurisdictions shows that 74-89% of retail accounts typically lose money on their investments, with average losses per client ranging from €1,600 to €29,000. NCAs’ analyses for binary options also found consistent losses on retail clients’ accounts.

ESMA, along with National Competent Authorities (NCAs), concluded that there exists a significant investor protection concern in relation to CFDs and binary options offered to retail investors. This is due to their complexity and lack of transparency; the particular features of CFDs – excessive leverage – and binary options - structural expected negative return and embedded conflict of interest between providers and their clients; the disparity between the expected return and the risk of loss; and issues related to their marketing and distribution.

 

  1. Keep in mind.... this is based on data of just a 6 month period!
  2. I have already listed hard evidence in this thread that the winners of one period do not have a significant higher chance of winning in the following period.
  3. After a period of 5 years, the percentage of winners drop to a number very close to ZERO!
  4. Retail forex trading is a negative sume game for losers.

  • #235
  • Apr 15, 2019 9:25am Apr 15, 2019 9:25am
End of March 2019 I showed how swap rates exploded on many brokers to insane levels on all TRY pairs. Beyond 100% a year! So far I couldn't see such extreme swap rate increases... but now it seems brokers discovered a nice new tool to fleeze retailers....

Meanwhile rates have somewhat come down to their "standard" levels.

You can see how different the swap conditions are. A shady bucket shop broker will have have a hudge difference between the rates it pays you if you go long TRY and the rates it charges you when you short TRY..... I think this may help to as a bucket shop identifier. No serious company would ever have an huge difference. If the data from myfxbook is real, then some even charge if allthough you go long TRY, despite an official libor rate difference of 25%. Hmmmmhhhh?!

And for all those whith open long and short positions of the same pair in their trade explorers..... yeahh, you are really professionals hedgers, arn't you?

So you guys still claim that you are winning (in the long run)?
Isn't it rather whining than winning? :-)

Here an overview regarding current EUR/TRY swap rates of forex brokers, so you get an idea.
(Source myfxbook)

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Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. Just quit and stop feeding this beast with your hard earned money.
  • #236
  • Apr 15, 2019 10:50am Apr 15, 2019 10:50am
Quoting HudithePfupf
End of March 2019 I showed how swap rates exploded on many brokers to insane levels on all TRY pairs. Beyond 100% a year! So far I couldn't see such extreme swap rate increases... but now it seems brokers discovered a nice new tool to fleeze retailers.... Meanwhile rates have somewhat come down to their "standard" levels. You can see how different the swap conditions are. A shady bucket shop broker will have have a hudge difference between the rates it pays you if you go long TRY and the rates it charges you when you short TRY..... I think this...

Turkey imposed limits to stop short sellers - nothing to do with the brokers they just have to deal with what Turkey has done.


"vernight interest rates in the London swap market, which was used by foreign banks to obtain Turkish lira after the sharp depreciation in the currency, rose rapidly as a result of the Turkish banks' tendency to provide TL under the legal limits.
The overnight interest rates rose over 330 percent in the market Tuesday from 22 percent.
In a statement to Reuters, four relevant sources said Turkish banks, which are the main funder for TL in the London swap market, are shaping their transactions in a way that "will remain well below the legal limit of 25 percent in the coming days."
  • #237
  • Apr 15, 2019 6:10pm Apr 15, 2019 6:10pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Turkey imposed limits to stop short sellers - nothing to do with the brokers they just have to deal with what Turkey has done."
It surely has a lot to do with brokers... because look how they handeld the situation - a total assymetric response to use the situation to their benefit against their customers. Turkey wasn't stopping short sellers by a short selling ban, the actually made it difficult to cover or hedge short TRY trades before the election weekend.... to achieve this, Turkish banks where ordered to withhold lira liquidity before the election, which has driven up the swap rates and the value of the TRY. Others in the market said foreign investors, squeezed out of the foreign exchange (FX) swap market, sold stocks and bonds to get hold of lira and close out positions.

The rates went up to 1200%, depending on which broker you use.That was by far its highest on record and so high that economists said it was no longer based on actual trading. Some took advantage of the situation and the most harm is done at the weakest participant.....and that is in most cases leveraged retail traders.
  • #238
  • Jun 27, 2019 9:04am Jun 27, 2019 9:04am
Great thread. Lot of work put in, @HudithePfupf. Congrats. Should be compulsory reading for everyone coming into Forex trading.
IMHO the day trading concept as a stand alone investment option for individuals, was and is one of the great ***** of the last one and a half decade.

On an aside.. Ive always found it interesting that while '000s of "Holy Grail" EAs have been developed on the ubiquitous MT4 platform I know of none that measures and logs round trip Transaction Costs for retail traders on a trade by trade basis, that can be used as even crude benchmark for Broker TCA performance.
Like to hear your thoughts @Hudi, on this.
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  • #239
  • Jun 27, 2019 9:41am Jun 27, 2019 9:41am
Quoting HudithePfupf
End of March 2019 I showed how swap rates exploded on many brokers to insane levels on all TRY pairs. Beyond 100% a year! So far I couldn't see such extreme swap rate increases... but now it seems brokers discovered a nice new tool to fleeze retailers.... Meanwhile rates have somewhat come down to their "standard" levels. You can see how different the swap conditions are. A shady bucket shop broker will have have a hudge difference between the rates it pays you if you go long TRY and the rates it charges you when you short TRY..... I think this...
thanks,
interesting topic.

based on the data shown, for example,
if one went long EurTry at Swissquote collected 56.41 swap on their longs,
if one went short EurTry at LCG paid-21.49 swap on their shorts,

a net of +34.92 a day.
the question is how often and how drastically these brokers change their swap rates,
else that seem to be a very decent lock-in profit
for the small price of setting up 1-1 account at these 2 brokers.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #240
  • Jul 5, 2019 10:08am Jul 5, 2019 10:08am

  1. [quote=HudithePfupf;9706033]Goals: This thread should help to uncover the marketing lies of the forex industry. [/quote]

There is little doubt but that after 12 pages of posts here the case for regarding the Thread starters proposition that..
(Retail) Forex - (is) A negative sum game for losers.. is indisputable.
The fact that some of the 5-10% who have so far managed to make money from it have turned up to dispute it , is entirely consistent.
A good test of the profitability of Forex trading, as an asset class for serious money investment, can be confirmed in looking at FX focused Hedge Fund Index results. (Last one I looked at had 21 constituent large Forex focused funds, was flat for last 4/5 years. And these are professionals, with a fraction of the TC costs retail traders incur.

The NEXT QUESTION is what happens to those 90+% that lose money Forex Trading?
And many of them, readers of this and other threads here on FF.

How many are encouraged by the hubris some on these forums project, to believe that they can be the 5% who can profit?
How many can afford the money that they are 20:1 likely to lose?
How many are here because they have a gambling problem.
What do members with long term investment and trading background.. who MUST KNOW this, do to caution newcomers about the reality of their interest.
And what can experienced traders and FF do to provide similar cautions to those members.

Difficult questions? Food for thought?

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