EURUSD only

Miti, nothing will change until one of the zones gives up...40 pips are half of ATR(14)... also, very often range is formed with this number (40) or close to it, the best way to trade range IMO is to take trades of the wall without using a trailing stop.

LWMA period: 200 shift:0. You can also use it on 5 min chart. But I don't rely on moving averages at all. It is just another tool. I look at the trading levels, zones, market structures and so on.

At first I thought it was bullish butterfly but B was not at 71.8fib so it may be not as I thought.
and yes I’m practicing in live account.

He is baaaaack!
another one who "smells" ranging conditions from a mile away

Thank you, appreciated.

It is a Bullish Gartley Pattern. I think you made a typo error, 76.8 is a fib level. Gartley Patterns can sometime morph into a Crab Pattern, as they both have a 61.8 fib retracement. Take a look at my profile, as there is a book on there, that I can recommend, that will give you the knowledge you will need to trade harmonic patterns.
Here is the pattern in question, the green one. If you have any questions just ask. Ignore all of the other red lines, they are harmonic patterns on higher time frames.

Happy New Year Boys!!!

I am ending 2018 with -4.4%. December -5%. Great month!!!!

EURUSD stopped at 1.1417 and reenter at 1.1443 stop 1.1490. I am still looking for a little more down to 1.1329/45 area to complete my fractal before a good rally.



Salute!

Thank to both you and Oc6oph.
I still have a lot of thing to learn and will read your suggested book for sure.

edit: I read about bullish gartley and wonder if the CD will be around 1.1328 (161.8fib)
because the BC move was 88.6fib.

http://robofitrex.blogspot.com/2016/...rtley.html?m=1

Happy New Year to ALL.

Miti my friend ,, end of the year ,,a reflection period of time gone by ,,a time to look a head to whats coming God willing .. Just some rough quick figuring and tieing in some of the things I spout off about occasionally ,,,lol,,simple farmers view with one thought in the back of your mind about this view ha ,, Ive been electrocuted before so some of my wiring may be fried lol

Just a little quick figuring for the last 5 years and why I say one must learn to adapt and improvise if one really wants to make what is available in this crazy business . Last 5 years in the yellow box. The figure always used to be 70% of the mkts time was spent ranging ,,, other 30 trending ,,,rough figuring its not far off ,,now if one was only in the mkt for the trending period , roughly 33 months out of the last 5 years for those 33 months your pip gain a day amounted to roughly 6.7 pips a day . 11 months strait down ,,, 2 years of nothing ,,11 months back up ,, ( funny how the 11 back up went to where oh yea a mid point and failed which the mid point is in line with what else oh yep the monthly 200 ,cant believe illusions work like that or mid points). The point that should stick out tho is the best trending months out of the last 5 years amounted too a lousy pathetic 6.7 pips a f^&king day . This is what you are looking for ?

Several ways of looking at it I reckon ,,, one is going to spend 70 % of their day sitting on there hands looking for that one trade to be in 30 % of the day then take their profit and move on to the next day ,,,,the key is taking their profit and moving on to the next day ,,one of your trades today with profit taken at the bottom of the days range would have absolutely crushed the pip gain per day over the last 5 years of the best trending periods. 2 of them your in the stratosphere as far as beating the mkt .. Context ,put things in context .. Over the last month and a half ,, even tho ranging how many times has it hit a weekly high and dropped or a R1 area ,,think there was one time it made past both a bit but then a midpoint between weekly R1 and weekly R2 is usually a good spot to watch or the S levels on the bottom same thing happens . Dosent take a rocket scientists formula or magic numbers or sequences or count to see what the f&*k is going on . Levels levels levels,,, adapt to taking what the mkt gives ,it gives you the levels,, nothing needs to guessed at or calculated out other than a few simple patterns ,,, flags ,,butterflys ,,gartleys, cyphers or what ever the hell that is ,,they are all versions of the exact same thing and they will all point to a horizontal level

Ive mentioned I like using the weekly levels to trade the quarterly numbers back and forth . The business world operates on quarters ,,, yea they all have their yearly plans ,, 5 year plans etc etc ,, but live or die by what develops in the unglamourous trenches the quarterly time period as their life or death unfolds on this big merry go round called life ,, when one applies the same patterns from previous charts ,,and with the though of the mkt doesent change ,,becuase it doesent ,,its the same shit day after day week after week and the same things happen on a longer time frame the patterns etc etc ,, the same ole shit I squawk about regularly pops up ,, previous highs ,,,previous lows,,, the opens Context ,,helps me put things in context . I remember when this started up there was a particular trader hollering every pull back was a buy it was going to 1.40,, havent heard much lately ,,got a bud hollering for parity or 1.08 ,,may happen,,, hell 1.40 may happen but ,, nothing will happen fast tho even on the best of trending days ,,taking half of what the mkt gives each day or spending ones time being patient and waiting for the best level to take a shot or get that 30 to 40 pip trades a day one will top the mkt by a bunch time and time again ,,probably even find a little humor in the calls for thousands of pips away . The real money is made with just a bit of history mixed with the here and now day after day in the trenches.

The wild west days of FX was like the 1st vertical half of the monthly chart ,,like every week has a day or so where its just choppy not much happening or every day has a choppy part where not much happens ,,,kinda where its at on the monthly cycle. Everything does go in a cycle or circle or whatever the f*(k you want to refer to that as lol. If one is always looking for trends a lot gets left on the table ,,,if one is always looking for ranges ones ass will be kicked when something does start trending. If one uses a few simple things and levels one can recognize either one in time to get their chunk of it especially if they are only biased to their own acct growing . a bullish attitude to ones acct is necessary,, to the mkt ,, your a trader ,,who gives a shit take the blinders off and do what you must to make your acct bullish and grow horns lol

Last trade I had time to post was a short from 1444,, with a 40 pip hard stop ,,risk reward totally not worth a shit there ,, knew it but short on time ,, was planning on crew being gone for the holidays ,,not my son lol,,,, said I was early lol,, I was ,, held added, a few at the top of the candle bodies on m30 ,,,, all cleared at white circle ,,had orders placed at weekly R1 with 20 pip tgts ,, big tgts no ,, beat the mkt ave yes ,,context lol. on to next year

Miti and too all traders here too numerous to mention all ,, would consider most friends ,,there always a couple in every crowd lol ah hell end of the year cheers to all and may all have a prosperous, healthy and great New Year and some for a toast to the new year ..

Much a healthy and lengthy post...."it happens every day day after day and week after week"...levels are there to watch and master....its not easy,,,it's tough though but worthwhile to to strive for..
I am going to start the live trading next Month....as I am some hurdles still.....you taught me a lot but I could Learn a very little so hoping you will keep helping during my live trading....
Have a nice HAPPY NEW YEAR to you and all other participants here on the thread and on FF.

Thanks and regards

Its never going to be easy bud ,,but it will be less harder lol to keep more than you give back as you evolve . There is going to be losing trades ,,no getting away from it but as the idea behind Ata s thread the stress free part ,,take the stress away ,,have your levels to take your shots with the probabilities on your side . not agonizing and stressing ,,without those some things become even clearer .. The mkt will keep ya humble ,, exercise some patience and working on things you recognize and you will be just fine bud . Many good traders here to learn from . Ill be around in and out ,,I havent quit learning yet cheers man

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY !!!


See you on Wednesday

I hope everybody has a great party to celebrate the New Year and that 2019 brings you peace, enjoyment and success!!
This thread has been of great value to me in 2018, sometimes because of the information shared by experienced traders as I continue to develop my skills, but mostly because it holds a community of people who want to be successful but are willing to support each other. For this we should all thank Ata ,who manages the forum in a great way.
Many forum just hold comments like "it will go up/down" or "i made a great profit today" without any analysis or explanation of why. This is just people with egos and pride - or worse, forum that are full of people who troll other's ideas.
Here there is value that we can all extract depending on our style/timeframe/risk level etc...We don't have to agree with all the comments (in fact it is impossible) but it is the "tone" of the discussion that is important.

Trading is lonely and we should thank the major contributors for their time and effort to make each day a little more easy.
My New Year resolution will be to provide more of my analysis in 2019.

Enjoy the party .....

Just sitting...

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post11829753

Hello folks. I decided to analyze a bit of EURUSD trading days hour-by-hour, 2007-2018.
Because that is what sane people do on their weekends. I'm going to post some results here if I find anything interesting.

As a starter, here's the raw price changes, each hour is calculated by subtracting day open from current H1 price.
The median falls below 0.0 (€, not pips) on every hour, expectedly, as the pair has came down over the years.
X-axis is GMT+2 hours (London opens at 10)

Dont confuse the box plot chart with candlesticks, here the "body" represents 50% of all observations, black line is median (~most common observation).

A more interesting one; if the day was a bear, the data changes are inverted (*-1), so bull and bear movements are now calculated as the same:
Hours 1-10 rarely changes the daily outcome, but London seems to have a deciding impact - as previously told in this thread, nice to have proof

A close-up of the median prices, a "typical" trading day (bear days inverted)


Using RSI insted of price:

Although the conventional wisdom for a Gartley Pattern "B-C" retracement is stated as 61.8, price can retrace as far as "A" i.e. 100 fib or any fib value between those two values. Likewise with retracement "D" conventional wisdom states 78.6 fib, but "D" can retrace as far as "X" or 100 fib or any value in between those two values. To get a reliable value for "D" use a fibonacci expansion of "A-B" and price should achieve the 127.2 expansion value.

If you look at page 3522, post 70436, my chart demonstrates this.

You will need to chart and practice on 100s of each type of harmonic pattern, to see how they behave and note their behaviour and keep your own charts for reference and as a record.