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Is Forex a ZERO Sum game? 62 replies

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Forex: A Zero Sum Game? 18 replies

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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

Quoting Drolph
{quote} Fact ist, the majority is losing. But accurate numbers are subject of guessing mostly. .
The retail forex industry has an essential interest to keep the transparency as low as possible. They sell a myth, so facts are extremly destructive.

The ESMA numbers are much better than the CFTC numbers and give you a much clearer picture already....

If they would have to show detailed account statistics over 5 years for all their customer accounts the numbers would be absolutly devastating.
Their business model would implode the very same day and all would be labled as online gambling companies and regulated accordingly.

Some activist hedgefund managers out there looking for a short bet that would even benefit society?
You have my support for free....
Ok.

What do I know ...
Here you find a more or less complete list showing the percentage of customers that lose money trading forex over a periode of 12 months for many brokers.
Every broker that offers service within the regulatory reach of ESMA has to publish this number every 3 months as a risk disclaimer on their homepage.
So the numbers are getting updated every 3 months..... and they are truly shocking.

Just to be clear.... this is no promotion of any broker... it's the opposite.

Forex is a negative sum game for losers. As proven here once more in great detail.

Take per example Exness....a russian broker.... currently they report 54.7% percent of their retail customers lose money....
I can't believe this number.... it's just very, very unrealistic and a warning sign.

Source: earnforex.com

https://i.redd.it/qs717xs868k11.png

Who is still in denial that forex is a negative game for losers?
After each and every failed attempt to accept the reality (that retail traders earn money trading currencies) I am posting more and more pieces of my success to undermine your funny endeavour.

Look, Hudi - another account. And a special one just for you as it is pushing it to the limit: it made A LOT out of nearly NOTHING in NO TIME.

Ok, your turn. Entertain me!

(everyone else keep in mind while he is trying to counter and discredit everything he simply could have spent his time developing something on his own. But he failed obviously. So he is the true loser now trying to justify his inability by collecting "facts". Think about it. Especially when he is going to claim in his next reply, that everything I am showing is no prove, fake or not my own data.. whatever.. but just imagine that my words/account pictures are true/real..)
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Drolph,

thanks for posting the evidence needed to prove you are a scammer or a soon to be victim of your own delusions.
You show the equity / balance curve of a typical grid / martingale system or a system with a huge risk / reward ratio that works till it spectacularly blows up.

You are averaging your losers in hope to recover your loses. This can be seen by the slope of the drawback that shows acceleration. On the othe hand the series of small gains in a row are also very typical for such a system. It's easy to see it around end of September, where you gave back almost all your gains in hope of a reversal. Lucky you... this time it worked.... soon it won't. I can predict that with 100% certainty, seeing this chart.

How to create such charts? Easy. Just let a system run with a > 10:1 risk / reward on multiple demo or cent accounts. Then 9 out of 10 go belly up, but you will have the one that hasn't yet blown up so you take it to scam and paint a picture of you as a successful trader. When I tried to reproduce such charts I was able to to have gains up to 600% in 2 weeks...... 100% is really nothing special..... doesn't matter, I know exactly how I distorted the risk / reward to achieve such a gain and that all is just pure luck. In realit, somebody trading this way will always blow up rather sooner than later.

Nice try... if you scam yourself... ok, that's your choice... if you scam others and nuture an epic lie....don't do this in my thread! If you are even paid as an affiliate marketing guy spaming this thread..... run. Kapiert?

Thanks, Hudi
Cmon Hudi, I was expecting more to be honest.

But ok, i have overestimated you - my bad, sorry.

Let me sum up the facts: a scammer is trying to sell/earn on promoting shit. I am not selling anything .. full stop! Everything I am showing is only to emphasize my argumentation. Something you are not capable of, as you are loser based on my conclusion in the last post.

Next point is your funny argumentation dealing with my account. Did you look closely? Did you see there is a withdrawal already? Not only on THIS particular example? What does this tell you? Right, this is real money! At the point you have withdrawn more than you have deposit you are literally trading at no risk. A discussion about the risk and reward of this kind of systems is something completely different. I am not offending here. Do not rely on averaging strategies alone. Your are right.

But these accounts are sufficient to prove your endlessly hating WRONG. Nothing more, nothing less.

PS: I am of course not paid for anything here.
Quoting Drolph
{quote} Is there still anybody wondering about the 80-90% losing money ..
At least you are right with this one.... what you don't say (on purpose) is that all evidence out there shows the 10-20% winners do not have any statistical significant higher probability to be winners again in the next year.... if you compare retail traders having a similar balance, using similar leverage, having similar spreads and similar commissions on their trades, none of them can outpredict an efficient market and prove any skill effect in predicting the market over a longer period of time. One day you'll learn that the market actually is very efficient most of the time and those times it isn't, it is even more inefficient against retailers. So efficient markets is the best case a retailer can hope for....but with all the shady tricks applied by brokers, liquidity providers, etc. etc. retailers are plankton in the overall food chain. The brokers perfected the art of screwing retailers in the last 20 years....it's time the regulators step in and they finally do.

So your accounts prove nothing..... and that's what makes you a scammer, because you sell the lie of profitiable retail trading based on skill. That doesn't exist in the real world. What is out there is profitable retail trading by luck for a limited time period....and what is out there is profitable trading by being underleveraged and able to exploit retail traders applying high leverage.... but the profit in this method can't be extracted with little shitty accounts of a few thousands like you show them and is clearly limited in size.

It's likely that you are getting paid for selling the lie in some way, either through affiliate marketing, through signal selling or because you have an other stake in this business.

I never overestimated you... those who promote retail forex are morally screwed and fubar.

Good bye.
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} At least you are right with this one.... what you don't say (on purpose) is that all evidence out there shows the 10-20% winners do not have any statistical significant higher probability to be winners again in the next year.... if you compare retail traders having a similar balance, using similar leverage, having similar spreads and similar commissions on their trades, none of them can outpredict an efficient market and prove any skill effect in predicting the market over a longer period of time. One day you'll learn that the market actually...

Can you explain why we have threads like this . This scammer has a thread over a decade old saying he makes 3 percent per day.

Thread is still active and he still posts.In one post he says he trades 100-200 lots per pip.

Also many followers say they trade full time using the method.

How do you explain this this ??

Kind regards,

Goose

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236210
Quoting goose4
{quote} Can you explain why we have threads like this . This scammer has a thread over a decade old saying he makes 3 percent per day. Thread is still active and he still posts.In one post he says he trades 100-200 lots per pip. Also many followers say they trade full time using the method. How do you explain this this ?? Kind regards, Goose https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236210

Because in the interest of ForexFactory it is at our own discretion and I guess because there won’t be much thread left
LDFX Trading Ltd
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Because in the interest of ForexFactory it is at our own discretion and I guess because there won’t be much thread left


Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} ..... and that's what makes you a scammer, because you sell the lie of profitiable retail trading based on skill. That doesn't exist in the real world.
Since your very first post in 2016, you have decried how it is impossible to make money in forex. You say that profitability in forex based on skill is a lie, when is reality, the notion that no one can ever be profitable in currency trading is the actual untruth.
Since I have been profitable for years (I am not sure what your definition of a short time is), trade with people that are profitable and personally know of several others that consistently make money trading currency, that leads me to believe one or more of the following:

1. You have experienced a devastating loss while trading,
2. Your ego does not allow you to accept that others can do what you can not, or
3. You are just bored and like to stir the pot every once in a while.

Regardless, none of that affects my trading in the least. I will still do what I do and you will still do what you do.

Whether you get back into trading or decide that protesting is your forte, I hope that 2019 is a good year for you.
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Since your very first post in 2016, you have decried how it is impossible to make money in forex. You say that profitability in forex based on skill is a lie, when is reality, the notion that no one can ever be profitable in currency trading is the actual untruth. Since I have been profitable for years (I am not sure what your definition of a short time is), trade with people that are profitable and personally know of several others that consistently make money trading currency, that leads me to believe one or more of the following: 1. You...

All markets, including forex, are too efficient for anyone to ever make money from it.
The movements in forex follow a random walk. No one, not retail traders, not big banks, not even insiders, can predict where the market will go. Everyone who speculates on the forex markets will lose money. Out of 100 trades, they will make money half of the time, and lose money half of the time. However, they will lose slightly more than they gain, because of the transaction costs.
This has been proven for 30 years, by market researchers like Brian Malkiel, Eugene Fama and etc.
Forex is just not a zero sum game. It is a NEGATIVE SUM GAME when you add in the brokerage costs.
I recommend anyone who wants to play forex to go down to your local casino and spend $50 trying to beat a roulette wheel. That roulette wheel will teach you more about forex than the internet ever will. It will save you a lot of hardship, and will help you come to the realisation that forex is just gambling, and will rip you off just as that roulette wheel did.
Technical analysis does not work. If it did, then people would buy/sell whenever there is a buy/sell signal and the advantage would dissapear because the price would move to yoru target profit even before you enter.
Fundamental analysis does not work, because if there was an advantage, then everyone will buy/sell forex to a price where the advantage no longer means anything.

Investing in long term assets will get you rich. Not trading forex.
Quoting goose4
{quote} All markets, including forex, are too efficient for anyone to ever make money from it.
I have to respectfully disagree. I have traded stock and index options for decades and make quite a bit of money doing that (You can even follow my trades on the "Lets Trade Options" thread). I traded currency very successfully for years until they repatriated US citizens back to 50:1 leverage, and then just traded options. I started trading forex last year again with an overseas broker and am again profitable (hopefully no issues when trying to get my money out).

So, in my experience, people CAN make money in the different markets. Technical analysis does work for me on both options and currency trading. now, investing can indeed make you rich, but it is done over many, many years. You have some down stock market time like 2008 and even the last two months, and all that long term wealth is eroded away (big difference between trading and investing!).

Some people make a very good living selling things on ebay, but not everyone that sells on ebay makes a very good living doing it. You have to learn how and develop the needed skill set regardless of what you are doing, if you want to be successful.

But unfortunately, even having the skill set does not guarantee success. Knowing how to do something and even having a lot of experience doing it does not necessarily mean you are good at it....all you need to prove that is look at drivers on the road!
Quote
All markets, including forex, are too efficient for anyone to ever make money from it. The movements in forex follow a random walk.

I tend to agree to markets being close to a random walk. And the times the markets are non-efficient we only see in hindsight..
Is it possible to trade random walk - I don't know but sure would like to know. What about Maxwell's demon? Can our actions interact with a random system to create a non-symmetrical outcome?
But I do now that if it's impossible to make money by trading, then it also would be impossible to lose money in a clear and consistent way! Of course, trading cost will make trading a negative sum game but I'm sure that most traders are able to lose much faster than trading costs would account for. But that should be impossible..
Quoting drbrain
{quote} All markets, including forex, are too efficient for anyone to ever make money from it. The movements in forex follow a random walk.
I tend to agree to markets being close to a random walk. And the times the markets are non-efficient we only see in hindsight.. Is it possible to trade random walk - I don't know but sure would like to know. What about Maxwell's demon? Can our actions interact with a random system to create a non-symmetrical outcome? But I do now that if it's impossible to make money by trading, then it also would be impossible to lose money in a clear and consistent way! Of course, trading cost will make trading a negative sum game but I'm sure that most traders are able to lose much faster than trading costs would account for. But that should be impossible..[/quote]
Quoting goose4
{quote} I do something called matched betting . Zero risk, and make around 1800 dollars a month with one account. I have 5 different accounts with friends name. total 9K a month. Much better than Forex and risk free.
I've heard that is a good way to make money if you take your time and pay attention to detail. Good job!

Of course, your friends may not be too happy when they have to pay taxes on money that YOU won.....
Quoting goose4
{quote}How do you explain this this ??
I would have to investigate this in more detail to get a clearer picture what's going on there specifically. What I see is that the whole forex industry is making hundreds of millions in profit each year and they deploy a significant portion of this money via their sales and marketing budget to lure in new victims. This can be easily proven by just looking at the financial data of listed brokers and extrapolate their numbers on the whole industry.

They use a giantic affiliate marketing industry, make promotions on all levels, lobbying efforts in politics, regulation etc etc. Money buys power and they have a lot of it. I think a lot of people underestimate what the right tools in the edge of digital zero cost information can do. These are todays shovel sellers. They do a lot of the dirty work needed that the supply of new victims doesn't dry up. They can run a quite efficient propaganda machine and they don't canibalize themselves on the basic lie that nutures the whole industry. Just look how easy a broad portion of the US population can be influenced by obviously false information on so many channels (even including the POTUS). I don't want to blame just republicans or democrats....all of them use these tools today and big media corperations and tech companies like facebook, google etc. make a killing with their ability to shape and influence public opion.

In forex is even easier than in other filds, because they sell a lie everbody is very keen to believe. So retail traders swallow it willingly. Everybody wants to believe that with skill and experience you can consistently make profits..... and since in most other fields talent and skills do directly and significantly correlate with success, the human brain has a bias to believe this ist true for speculative retail forex trading too, which is a big mistake in an efficient market and a negative sum game.

So think about possible affiliate marketing techniques that can be deployed. Be aware that money isn't their problem and everything that you can think off can be deployed if seen as effective. Realize how easy they can pull up fake success stories that even involve a large number of people. Some of the peoples are fully aware how they decive the public, but you have allways a significant portion just thinking the win through skill but it is just luck or a distorted money management with a unlimited tail risk that gave them their profits......

So try to analyze how they are organized and identify their business model, than you start to understand why they are still here after so many years. Also keep in mind that a significant portion of retailers are addicted gamblers....they stay here not because of profit, they stay in the game to nuture their addiction and lose their short while doing so.
Quoting goose4
{quote}Of course, trading cost will make trading a negative sum game but I'm sure that most traders are able to lose much faster than trading costs would account for. But that should be impossible..
[/quote]

Gamblers ruin, aka far too much leverage is the main reason why the lose so fast.
I was able to simulate that with a quite simple mathematical model, but also found a lot of real world evidence / data that exactly confirms these findings.

If 2 players compete in a zero sum game, one with huge capital and no leverage, the other with little capital an huge leverage, it can be proven that the one using no leverage has a very clear mathematical edge in the long run. This is one of the main pillars who wins in the long run in currency trading.
Moneymaker2... what happened to Moneymaker1?

A "professional trader" that cries because leverage was limited to 50:1 and that this was the reason that made him unprofitable, combined with the notion that he became profitable again by using an "offshore broker" offering high leverage again .... Jesus, this is so far off from the slightest proffesional level that I can never ever take you serious again.

Please leave this tread and never come back.
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote}Gamblers ruin, aka far too much leverage is the main reason why the lose so fast. I was able to simulate that with a quite simple mathematical model, but also found a lot of real world evidence / data that exactly confirms these findings. If 2 players compete in a zero sum game, one with huge capital and no leverage, the other with little capital an huge leverage, it can be proven that the one using no leverage has a very clear mathematical edge in the long run. This is one of the main pillars who wins in the long run in currency trading.


People do not loose because of high leverage.People loose because of poor money management, because of poor trading skills and now regulator tried to save stupid people,so he punished all traders.Sure it is possible to make money with lover leverage.but it's easier with highest.Thanks god,I was able to keep 1:200
Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
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