The Daily Fozzy Method

Quoting stricko108

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bb, so are you taking every signal that comes thru, doesnt' matter which pair?

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Quoting BeachBum

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For the sake of clarity I have marked the trades I entered using the original fozzy entry rules with this (F) All other trades were entered without regard for the BB center line position.

Tues-Wed 10/3-4
aud/jpy..................................-47
aud/nzd.................................B/E
gbp/chf.................................still open (currently +81) 22 pips locked in........closed +22
usd/chf (F)...........................still open (currently + 160) 30 pips locked in........closed +153

Wed-Thurs 10/4-5
gbp/usd..............................still open (currently +170) 105 locked in.........closed +215
aud/usd (F).........................-26
aud/jpy (F).........................still open (currently +45) 8 locked in..........closed +60
chf/jpy (F)..........................+11
eur/aud (F).........................still open (currently +85) 30 locked in..........closed +105
eur/gbp..............................-27
nzd/usd (F).........................-47

Thurs-Fri 10/5-6
eur/usd (F)..........................still open (currently +100) 51 locked in........closed +90
eur/jpy (F)...........................still open (currently -47)........closed -76
gbp/jpy (F)..........................still open (currently -40).........closed -141

This week I booked 34 pips and left 554 on the table.

Closing ALL trades Friday PM would have given me a gain for the week of 520 pips. Not too bad!

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Quoting stricko108

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bb, thanks, so where did you use to surf, or do you still surf?

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Quoting mniemiec

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Horace here is the ea fozzyv1.0

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Quoting miscon777

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Not to muddy the waters with different approaches, but I thought I'd throw out the method I've been forwarding testing. There haven't been enough trades yet to determine whether its an improvement or not, but I did a manual backtest from the start of 2006 through about a week ago on the GBPUSD and the results were quite impressive.

This is a 1:1 risk reward system involving two lots. Instead of automatically entering at the opening of the day following a crossover, I set my entry at the previous day's high (or low if sell signal was given). I do this because I see it as a confirmation of ithe ntended trade, and in my backtesting it repeatedly kept me out of trades that were blatently bad.

So, I place an order for one lot at the previous days high with an SL of the previous day's low and a TP equal to the gap between yesterday's high and low (so SL gap = TP gap, or 1:1 risk/reward).

I then place a second order with an entry at the same level as the first, but I divide yesterday's high/low range in half and use that to determine my SL and TP for that order... again, SL gap = TP gap, but this time only half of the previous day's range.

To sum up, I'm waiting for today's price to hit yesterday's extreme, and then setting one order with a SL and TP of yesterday's range, and a second order with a SL and TP of 50% of yesterday's range.

If the 50% range order's TP is hit, I move the 100% range order to BE.

Here's the funk-a-fyer: As days pass and orders remain open, I re-adjust my SLs and TPs based on the day that has just passed. Basically, I built an indicator that shows me the 50% and 100% SL/TP levels as they change each day, which makes it pretty easy.

The cardinal rule in moving SLs and TPs as day pass is that the SL gaps never get increased, no matter what... the TP gap might increase (which happens when day after day the trade is going in your direction), but the SL is never increased (in terms of gap), even if the new day's level indicates that it should. As an example, if you were long and a new day presented a new SL that would be lower than your current SL, you keep your old SL and disregard the new one.

Many of the trades I saw in backtesting were stopped out by their SL... but after three or four days of climbing up and up, and often at a very good profit. Meanwhile, as the TPs increase, you stay in the trade and hope that the trend you've caught continues.

At some point, if things go well, I'll start my own thread for this system.

I apologize in advance if it detracts from the direction this thread is headed.


-miscon777

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Quoting howard

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Hi

Could you post version 2 of the indicator itself as well, the one with dots on rsi.

Regards

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Quoting fozzy

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Hi mrkam,
I am reluctant to reveal total pips won/lost with this system as it is not relevant to anyone else but me. As a newbie trader myself, I know it can be quite tempting to change methods whenever you see someone touting that their system makes "x number" of pips each week/month/year. I found that this constant changing of systems in search of something "better" led to a steady erosion of my trading capital. I'd try one thing out and as soon as it didn't produce winnersoften enough I'd change to another system, then another, then another etc etc.... It took a while for it to sink in that it was actually me that was the problem with most methods. I'm sure that most methods posted on this forum are capable of being profitable in the right hands, yet I couldn't seem to make any of them work for me.

I also don't want anyone to turn around in a couple of months and say that I was full of BS and they didn't get the same number of pips that I did. That is not why I posted the system. I did it in the hope that some traders that are still at the "changing systems" stage can see that they are not the only ones going through it and that sometimes it pays to step back and look at simpler systems.

I will however, say again that this system works for ME. Please do not put your hard earned money into this until/unless you are comfortable with how it works and what you are trying to achieve. This system, like any other, will have winners and losers. How you manage the trades and how many pips you win/lose is up to you. I suggest that if you want to know how many pips you will get, you demo it for yourself. If it doesn't suit you, it will make no difference whatsoever how many pips I have won/lost.

You are right though, the only exit strategy I have is my stop, either at breakeven or trailing 25 pips.

Cheers

Fozzy

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Quoting mikejody

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Hi Fozzy,

I really appreciate you sharing this method; I am in the air 4 days a week and have now found something I can trade.

I also wanted to thank you for your excellent post below. There is one guy on a particular forum who traded professionally for awhile who loves to state "500 pips/day" and other numbers, yet never seems to figure out how to convey to everyone else how he gets them. His system is fuzzy, his communication unclear, but his statements about "pips per day" always seem to be crystal clear.

I'd much rather have crystal clear communication about the system, and generalities about pips made, exactly as you state below.

I really appreciate how you have handled this thread and I am learning a lot with your method here.

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Quoting howard

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Hi mike

What is the link for the other person you are referring to on another forum, perhaps I could have a look at what he is doing.

Thanks

Howard

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Quoting mikejody

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Howard, he posts all throughout the Sidus and Bagavino methods here on FF.

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Quoting mikejody

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Greetings,

I personally believe strongly in backtesting, as it helps to give me an understanding of the particular market as to how it "normally" acts. I do this so that I might select appropriate targets, stop losses, etc.

I am currently backtesting the Fozzy Method. I am doing this because it is a method that I can trade with my schedule, and it is very simple. I have discovered that what works best for me and my schedule is simply to trade this method using 2 lots and 2 targets; the first lot is taken out at 20 pips and the second at 40 pips. This information is for the EUR/USD only, using the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, just exactly as Fozzy introduced it. I will then backtest the "all trades" (not using the Bollinger Bands, but rather taking every trade) and post the comparison.

The reason why I take these small targets is because with my schedule I am usually unable to move my stops, trail with a stop loss, etc. This way I can truly "set it and forget it".

I also have an Excel spreadsheet that I would be happy to email to anyone who asks; in that spreadsheet you can see the difference between taking targets at 50, 75, 100, 150, 200 and 250. I would just post it here but cannot seem to upload it (doesn't appear that FF takes the Excel type of spreadsheet).

On these stats, I increase a lot for every $1,000.00, beginning with $10,000.00.

Here are the stats for the EUR/USD, from January '06 to present:

=============================================================================================
PERFORMANCE STATISTICS
=============================================================================================

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Quoting BeachBum

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mike...........

Your results are excellent. Please tell us what method you used to perform your backtest. Also, your spreadsheet can be posted if you put it into a zip file.

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Quoting mikejody

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Thanks BB,

The way I performed the backtest was to enter the trade at 5:00 PM Eastern Time with 2 lots, set the stop loss automatically at the high/low of the previous bar (the bar that generated the signal), then set 1 target at 20 pips and another at 40 pips.

Even though the results produced a 76% win rate, I am concerned about the dangerous risk/reward ratio. The stop losses were often 80 or more, and the max available pips with this method is 60 (20 on the first lot and 40 on the second). I don't know what to do about that, given that I cannot usually move my stop loss to break even due to my schedule.

I will try to zip the excel spreadsheets and upload them too.

Any thoughts are always appreciated, and meanwhile I am now backtesting the "all trades" (not taking into account the middle band of the Bollinger Bands method). Will post those shortly.

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Quoting BeachBum

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Hi Mike......

Perhaps I was not clear in my last post. I didn't ask for the "rules" of your backtest but rather the method, ie..........backtesting in MT, paper test with charts, etc. Sorry for the confusion. And thanks again!

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Quoting smjones

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BB, the output looks like a AmiBroker back test... I too would be interested in the type.

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Quoting BeachBum

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OK Mike.............it's not just me anymore who is interested in your "backtest"..............one of the "Big Dogs" here at FF is interested too.................

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Quoting smjones

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BB, I defer to you anyday... LOL

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Quoting BeachBum

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Hi Mike......

Perhaps I was not clear in my last post. I didn't ask for the "rules" of your backtest but rather the method, ie..........backtesting in MT, paper test with charts, etc. Sorry for the confusion. And thanks again!

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