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Setting the Standard: Tradingwithw’s Trading Services

  • #101
  • Edited 9:24am Dec 21, 2018 5:26am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Thanks for link and info about the Series 65. I do however have a question - What is more important; fundamentals, technicals or simply price action (PA)? It would be nice to get your professional perspective.
Fundamentals set the tone and are notoriously hard to trade directly. Example, rising rates is generally bullish for the dollar do to better interest rates for investing, thus more investors want dollar....but you don't just buy the dollar as soon as you see an uptick in rates. Sometimes (rarely) it can be traded directly....like BREXIT. No brainer that brexit would kill GBP immediately or that a NO HIKE earlier this week would have killed the dollar. You just have to pick your battles and trade the obvious surprises....otherwise use it as a barometer. We know that it's likely if ECB raises rates that EU should end the year higher than it started. Easy enough.

Price action and technicals set the range and simply give you parameters for your system....brings about some order to the market chaos. There's no magic indicator or PA. The magic comes from consistency of a system, money management, and patience.

As far as importance? Fundamentals undoubtedly the most important and for a simple reason: panic. Panic in the markets from surprise fundamental events will trump technical indicators, magic systems, etc every time. Plus you know, fundamentals effect us here in the real world....not just the trading fish bowl
  • #102
  • Dec 23, 2018 12:14pm Dec 23, 2018 12:14pm
Alright- as promised, weekly update. Expect next week to be dead. No real traders are at their work stations, algos will be in control.

Dec 24 - 28, 2018


Monday - Friday

Nothing of importance, algos in control.

Other factors to consider

Risk is still on the table via BREXIT, TRUMP, CHINA. Algos are programmed to key words, so there's a chance of movement...but even still nobody with a pulse should trade this week. You'll see a lot of noob FF members lose money these last few weeks.....don't be one of those.

Also of note, EQUITIES are set to end the year red...first time in almost a decade, look at the MONTLY candle...never has one been this large. Brings back memories of LEHMAN, 2008, world crisis. Compound that as many of these stocks have only gained the year do to stock buy backs....NOBODY IS ACTUALLY BUYING EQUITIES. THIS IS A BIG DEAL.
  • #103
  • Dec 25, 2018 10:35am Dec 25, 2018 10:35am
Merry Christmas to those of you that participate.

Interesting to see BITCOIN and other cryptocurrencies in the news again...
  • #104
  • Dec 25, 2018 6:58pm Dec 25, 2018 6:58pm
Quoting Tradingwithw
will be pulling out half of my account to invest in some more XRP Half will stay and we'll double up in 2019 again!
I like Xrp myself and will be adding to my crypto pie soon as well.

BTW...Nice thread its a good example to follow. Always nice to see strait up no bullshit
commercial members. Lord knows this place is filled with the flip side, scammers of all sorts.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #105
  • Dec 26, 2018 12:43pm Dec 26, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} I like Xrp myself and will be adding to my crypto pie soon as well. BTW...Nice thread its a good example to follow. Always nice to see strait up no bullshit commercial members. Lord knows this place is filled with the flip side, scammers of all sorts. Cheers Blue
Thank you
  • #106
  • Dec 27, 2018 10:32am Dec 27, 2018 10:32am
Alright- calling it for the year! Happy Holidays everyone.

Year one return = 118.87% (abs gain 116.88%)
  • #107
  • Edited 9:52pm Dec 30, 2018 9:31pm | Edited 9:52pm

Dec 31 2018 - Jan 4 2019


Monday - Friday

Happy new year!!

Another week of holidays, not looking for much to happen....illiquid markets with most everyone still on vacation. There is some USD employment data and Powell interview on Friday, however; it's far too late in the week to trade.

Other factors to consider

Same old story, Trump, trade, etc.

Equities: there has been some bottom buying, maybe the FED, maybe algos, maybe funds....who knows really? It does seem suspiciously like the buying was only to stop the blood flow until the end of the year. Either way I suspect we go into Jan 2019 continuing the down trend. Don't get sucked into buying if you trade equities....
  • #108
  • Jan 1, 2019 7:55am Jan 1, 2019 7:55am
Brand new year! YeeeeeeHAW!

Inserted Video
  • #109
  • Jan 2, 2019 10:06am Jan 2, 2019 10:06am
Good morning folks! I think I've already spotted my first oil trade of 2019! Looking like a good setup for next week

Maybe EJ as well..
  • #110
  • Jan 2, 2019 5:46pm Jan 2, 2019 5:46pm
Like I said....low liquidity. Now isn't the time to be trading.

RIP USDJPY, also cancel my EJ trade...wanted to short it this evening during Tokyo session....butttttt think I'll stay out for now.
  • #111
  • Jan 3, 2019 8:34am Jan 3, 2019 8:34am
Quoting Tradingwithw
Good morning folks! I think I've already spotted my first oil trade of 2019! Looking like a good setup for next week Maybe EJ as well..
Next week I'll look for a reason to buy OIL around $45 for a tp of $50
  • #112
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:11am Jan 4, 2019 8:11am
Good morning friends! Finally looking forward to trading on Monday. I had to throw in a quick trade for a few dollar loss just to keep my MQL5 going (they'll remove the signal if you go over 7 days without a trade). See yall Monday!

Also- my prediction for 2019 is dollar will fall.

There are several factors that cause me to believe this:

  1. Generally, the market doesn't expect the FED to raise rates in 2019
  2. BONDS have bolstered this idea, as they've fallen at or below the FED funds rate
  3. Trump vehemently supports a weaker dollar
  4. Inflation has taken a down turn, however; JOBS have not (this will be key to watch and will give good ideas as to where FED will take rates)
  5. Less important, but my system has been showing a downturn in dollar since $97

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #113
  • Edited Jan 7, 2019 9:08am Jan 6, 2019 5:23pm | Edited Jan 7, 2019 9:08am
Alright folks! Back to trading, and happy new trading year!

Jan 7 - 11, 2019

Monday
Hob-knob of low key European data
ISM Non Manufacturing data - looking for this to be inline or below with forecast. Minimal impact in the realistic sense.

Tuesday
Nothing of importance, should be a busy technical day

Wednesday
FOMC - Usually this would be a snoozer, but for the start of this year all of FOMC meeting minutes are going to move the markets, more so than they usually do! We're looking for language on whether or not there will be hikes in 2019. My guess is NO HIKES 2019.
Not looking for HIKES, we're looking for LANGUAGE.

Thursday
Snoozer

Friday
CPI - like the FOMC, these are going to be KEY coming into 2019. My guess is CPI will start to taper off! I do not expect to beat 2%, which means we will either be INLINE or BELOW expectations! Looking for dollar to fall here

Other factors to consider
Ongoing BREXIT drama
China / US trade talks
Possible Trump indictment
It's the first trading week of the year! MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!
  • #114
  • Edited 3:28pm Jan 7, 2019 3:17pm | Edited 3:28pm
FANTASTIC NEWS!

I've just met with my compliance consultant, my lawyer, and my CPA- later this year I will be registering as a PRIVATE FUND. That means I will be able to accept deposited funds to manage in house up to $150MM.

Now- I know this is scary for some, but PLEASE REMEMBER I will still be a Registered Investment Adviser and the United States SCC and SEC laws apply to me. This is contrary to what most are used to on FF.

ANYONE MANAGING YOUR MONEY IN ANY CAPACITY MUST BE LEGALLY REGISTERED AND PASS EXAMINATIONS AND HAVE A LICENSE TO MANAGE YOUR MONEY
  • #115
  • Jan 9, 2019 6:48am Jan 9, 2019 6:48am
Slow week.
  • #116
  • Jan 9, 2019 6:57am Jan 9, 2019 6:57am
Congratulations!

This week has been as slow as watching paint dry! I don't remember when the ranges of the common pairs has been so confined to such a narrow range!

Assuming the FOMC notes reveal a dovish tone would you expect EU to increase as well as GBP/USD?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #117
  • Jan 9, 2019 9:45am Jan 9, 2019 9:45am
Quoting fxsport
Congratulations! This week has been as slow as watching paint dry! I don't remember when the ranges of the common pairs has been so confined to such a narrow range! Assuming the FOMC notes reveal a dovish tone would you expect EU to increase as well as GBP/USD?
Not much has changed since Christmas- status quo, nothing to trade. Let the market warm up mid to late January we should see volatility come back. Remember, no volatility usually means the spring is coiling to explode.

Yearly outlooks:

Brexit is STILL weighing on the entire Eurozone. So once we can clear that (for good or bad) we can get back to business.

Euro is a soft buy: if you take BREXIT out of the equation, the euro is sitting about where dollar was in 2014. ECB has ended QE and we are now watching for signs of inflation. With inflation comes rate hikes, with rate hikes comes currency appreciation.

Dollar is a sell: for same reasons I listed here

GBP is neutral: there will be small knee jerk reactions based on BREXIT drama, but the meat of the BREXIT move is gone, there's only crumbs left. Once BREXIT is over, GBP will likely be a buy.


------

To directly answer your question, if FOMC notes a dovish tone then yes, dollar should fall in the current environment. If you want to trade it directly I'd wait and let the movers and shakers do their thing for a few hours, then jump on the train. Even with a dovish tone, and the dollar dropping, most times we see the zone again and we'll be able to sell in a safer environment.

I will not be trading the FOMC directly, I'll watch for my suspicions to be confirmed, then I will look to sell the dollar in calmer seas possibly next week.
  • #118
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:00pm Jan 9, 2019 1:00pm
Perhaps a EU sell @ 1.1602
  • #119
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:20pm Jan 9, 2019 1:20pm
Patience...

Inserted Video
  • #120
  • Jan 9, 2019 1:58pm Jan 9, 2019 1:58pm
Quoting Tradingwithw
FANTASTIC NEWS! I've just met with my compliance consultant, my lawyer, and my CPA- later this year I will be registering as a PRIVATE FUND. That means I will be able to accept deposited funds to manage in house up to $150MM. Now- I know this is scary for some, but PLEASE REMEMBER I will still be a Registered Investment Adviser and the United States SCC and SEC laws apply to me. This is contrary to what most are used to on FF. ANYONE MANAGING YOUR MONEY IN ANY CAPACITY MUST BE LEGALLY REGISTERED AND PASS EXAMINATIONS AND HAVE A LICENSE TO MANAGE...

Well done...
Congratulations and i sincerely wish you all the best.

Although I have never done it...trading money for others is a big deal. I admire those that do it correctly...regardless of returns.
Doing things professionally and in accordance to the laws...is certainly a rarity around here.

Anyhow best of luck. And I wish you massive success.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
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