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  • #1,121
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:22am Dec 19, 2018 4:22am
asian session was long

and now i have insomnia...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JWG-yQQ67o&feature=youtu.be

i want sleeping pills
  • #1,122
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:28am Dec 19, 2018 10:28am
have you ever have those moments where you're in a trade, then maybe few moments later when price goes against you, realize your mistake?

I was long earlier then realized that at 10cst i shoud've went short.

again, different scenario, overlooked it.

if price doesnt' retrace, this could be about -7k loss (i'm in 9 contracts). lower target to 6580 if it gets there.

will have to file this week under "pay attention you moron". defintely a review the mistakes is needed after the week is done.

Why can't i be rewarded for mistakes sometimes...it's like the market is just waiting or me to slip.
  • #1,123
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:35am Dec 19, 2018 10:35am
Quoting hilmy83
have you ever have those moments where you're in a trade, then maybe few moments later when price goes against you, realize your mistake? I was long earlier then realized that at 10cst i shoud've went short. again, different scenario, overlooked it. if price doesnt' retrace, this could be about -7k loss (i'm in 9 contracts). lower target to 6580 if it gets there. will have to file this week under "pay attention you moron". defintely a review the mistakes is needed after the week is done. Why can't i be rewarded for mistakes sometimes...it's like...
lowering tp to yesterday high 6577
  • #1,124
  • Dec 19, 2018 11:02am Dec 19, 2018 11:02am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} screwed up on one setup during US session which took out asian's profits. This was setup i should not have taken after looking at the price action. shorted earlier, then went long on mistake. that was $1500 mistake. Completely overlooked it!. more upset over mistake then regular losses per rules. i figure i just quit ahead. asian=930 US=-315 total=+$615 {image} Just misread my hand but i keep reminding myself poker pros make mistakes too. learn from it. learn from phil https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgHg4lBAswU
done. just piss shit poor read adn just got lucky. next time i'd probably get burned. time to reset. tomorrow is last day of december trading for me before going to Chicago.

asian=565
US=1140
total=+$1705

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  • #1,125
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:22pm Dec 19, 2018 2:22pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} done. just piss shit poor read adn just got lucky. next time i'd probably get burned. time to reset. tomorrow is last day of december trading for me before going to Chicago. asian=565 US=1140 total=+$1705 {image} {image}
As I said earlier, stop trading and call it a year (if you are YTD in green)! Don't even think about risking one more day.

With NQ... the only necessary "edge" is to stop trading while you are still ahead and realize that NQ is a beast in snatching our profits away as quickly as she gives :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,126
  • Edited 3:35pm Dec 19, 2018 3:22pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} As I said earlier, stop trading and call it a year (if you are YTD in green)! Don't even think about risking one more day. With NQ... the only necessary "edge" is to stop trading while you are still ahead and realize that NQ is a beast in snatching our profits away as quickly as she gives :-
i'm on the belief that the fear of "losing money" is as much of a hindrance to trading progress as it is "greed'

when you trade, it's all about process. DOn't worry about the money, it's inconsequential. doesn't mean that you risk willy nilly, but my point is, once you set your risk, just focus on the trading process. don't worry about making pnl for the week, month or year. it's about trading, PERIOD.

right now my main focus is to execute my plan with the least mistakes without tilting. Doesn't matter if i'm up 1k or 100k or down 10k for the week or month.

When you do things right, the money will talk.
  • #1,127
  • Edited 12:30am Dec 20, 2018 12:14am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i'm on the belief that the fear of "losing money" is as much of a hindrance to trading progress as it is "greed' when you trade, it's all about process. DOn't worry about the money, it's inconsequential. doesn't mean that you risk willy nilly, but my point is, once you set your risk, just focus on the trading process. don't worry about making pnl for the week, month or year. it's about trading, PERIOD. right now my main focus is to execute my plan with the least mistakes without tilting. Doesn't matter if i'm up 1k or 100k or down 10k for...
Agree and I am not saying to ignore your plan. All I am saying is the following:

Any strategy (TA/FA/PA etc) will eventually decay in performance if it takes "every" buy and sell signal.

As an example:

  1. Harold will decay in performance if he trades the exact same system for the entire NYSE session.
  2. If you trade each and every MA Cross, it will decay
  3. If you fade every bounce or breakout, it will decay

The above is especially true for intra-day strategies. Quantitatively speaking, anyone who disagrees will have to show me their detailed trade stats to turn me into a believer! Even CrucialPoint has written about this. Trading intra-day via PRE-DEFINED goal-based trading approach requires us to stop trading when the goal is met. This probably doesn't apply to you as I don't think you shoot for any specific goal during accounting period and hence the reason why you are seeing up and down swings in your day2day performance. Again, nothing wrong with anything you are doing :-)

Edit: just wanted to share where I am coming from. I will end up deleting this post. I truly feel this to be one of the many reasons why day traders have a hard time with consistency.

Staying in my lane...
  • #1,128
  • Dec 20, 2018 2:45am Dec 20, 2018 2:45am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree and I am not saying to ignore your plan. All I am saying is the following: Any strategy (TA/FA/PA etc) will eventually decay in performance if it takes "every" buy and sell signal. As an example: Harold will decay in performance if he trades the exact same system for the entire NYSE session. If you trade each and every MA Cross, it will decay If you fade every bounce or breakout, it will decay The above is especially true for intra-day strategies. Quantitatively speaking, anyone who disagrees will have to show me their detailed trade stats to turn me into a believer! Even CrucialPoint has written about this. Trading intra-day via PRE-DEFINED goal-based trading approach requires us to stop trading when the goal is met. This probably doesn't apply to you as I don't think you shoot for any specific goal during accounting period and hence the reason why you are seeing up and down swings in your day2day performance. Again, nothing wrong with anything you are doing :-) Edit: just wanted to share where I am coming from. I will end up deleting this post. I truly feel this to be one of the many reasons why day traders have a hard time with consistency.
Time to bust a myth or two:

1. Over Trading is a lie. It is a term coined by people who have one or both of the following issues: 1. They lack the discipline to follow their system to the T every time. 2. Their system lacks the definition required to allow them to follow it exactly all the time.

Harold's results would not decay because he decided to trade the entire NY session. Harold's results would decay because he decided to trade outside of the defined parameters of his system. He understands when his system works best which is during peak volume. His ability to stick to the details of his system is why he has the results that he has.

2. Taking every trade decays your results? You must take every entry your system defines otherwise your results are dependent on being lucky enough to pick the winning trades. Without the statistical data to know the true results of your system, how would you know whether it actually works or you were just lucky during that time? If your results decay due to the number of trades you are taking either you are not following the rules OR your rules are missing a component necessary to make the results consistent. What appears as decay is simply gathering enough data to determine the weaknesses in the system.
  • #1,129
  • Dec 20, 2018 3:07am Dec 20, 2018 3:07am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Time to bust a myth or two: 1. Over Trading is a lie. It is a term coined by people who have one or both of the following issues: 1. They lack the discipline to follow their system to the T every time. 2. Their system lacks the definition required to allow them to follow it exactly all the time. Harold's results would not decay because he decided to trade the entire NY session. Harold's results would decay because he decided to trade outside of the defined parameters of his system. He understands when his system works best which is during...
Good response magnum. I will give you that for sure. What you say is "probably" true in an ideal world where you wish to put every "weighted average" on human performance towards spotless executions. In practical world of actual implementation of any strategy, the human element and it's performance decay becomes almost impossible to measure... especially when there is no one else but yourself to judge your own performance. In employment, if companies were to take only "self-assessment" of individual's performance in giving annual raises, no company would last more than a year if you know what I mean. As I said, in theory, trade the plan and plan to trade is all good and feel good and appear good but in reality, how do you measure your own execution? How do you rate your own execution? How do you compare your executions? with what metrics? From your past trade stats? from your past trading performance? It becomes subjectively subjective if you subject your analysis on subjective actions from the past... UNLESS you are able to quantify it... AND, if you are able to quantify your subjective executions then EVERY algo would yield tremendous and consistent results.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,130
  • Dec 20, 2018 6:22am Dec 20, 2018 6:22am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Good response magnum. I will give you that for sure. What you say is "probably" true in an ideal world where you wish to put every "weighted average" on human performance towards spotless executions. In practical world of actual implementation of any strategy, the human element and it's performance decay becomes almost impossible to measure... especially when there is no one else but yourself to judge your own performance. In employment, if companies were to take only "self-assessment" of individual's performance in giving annual raises,...
If the rules are defined with enough detail it is easy to determine if the trader was the issue or the system. As you indicated, self assessment is critical to success. I evaluate EVERY trade at the end of the day and once again at the end of the week. I even evaluate trades that I had a pending order on that I canceled before execution. I actually still consider it a bad trade if it was profitable but I did not follow all of my rules. Why do I do that? Because technically I cannot use the result of that trade to calculate the success rate of my system because it didn't follow the rules of my system.

It has taken me years to get my system to where it is today. And even though I am really happy with the results, I am constantly evaluating and trying to improve on what I am doing. Complacency = failure.

Here are some things that I know about my trading:
1. I know to a tenth of a percent what the likelihood of success is for any given trade if I follow all the rules.
2. I know exactly what my risk is per trade.
3. I know exactly when to stop for the day.
4. I know exactly when I shouldn't trade at all.
5. I know exactly when to enter, when to exit and when to move my stop.
6. I know exactly how I feel when I take a trade and don't follow the rules 100% and the trade fails.
7. I know exactly when to make minor adjustments in my trading due to changing market conditions (i.e. The huge spike in volatility that began in October).
etc. etc.etc. There is no aspect of my trading that is not well defined.

In my opinion, the main reason 95% or more are failing at trading is because in reality they are just guessing and hoping. Hopium is a dangerous drug.

I am not afraid of the markets. I can and do trade anywhere from 1 to 16 hours in any given day. That includes weekends when the markets are closed. I take full advantage of the market playback system built into ninjatrader. Why? The Michael Jordan's of the world did not get where they are by only playing on game day. Outside of normal family stuff I am either trading or working on things to make my trading better (i.e. indicators, etc). Eventually, the strategy will be fully automated and I will spend less than an hour a day on trading. It all comes down to what are you willing to give up for the short term so you can have what you want for the long term?
  • #1,131
  • Dec 20, 2018 6:55am Dec 20, 2018 6:55am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree and I am not saying to ignore your plan. All I am saying is the following: Any strategy (TA/FA/PA etc) will eventually decay in performance if it takes "every" buy and sell signal. As an example: Harold will decay in performance if he trades the exact same system for the entire NYSE session. If you trade each and every MA Cross, it will decay If you fade every bounce or breakout, it will decay The above is especially true for intra-day strategies. Quantitatively speaking, anyone who disagrees will have to show me their...
Why don't you make a New Year resolution to yourself. To stop galloping around systems and concentrate on one approach that you have studied ( Like Harold and his approach). Forward test it ( on demo if you wish). If successful it should become boring. Harold follows his rules and doesn't roam the planet sniffing other trading styles, he would rather trade his successful approach which he has outlined on this thread countless time. There are those who theorise and hop from debate to debate and there are those who trade.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,132
  • Dec 20, 2018 6:57am Dec 20, 2018 6:57am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Time to bust a myth or two: 1. Over Trading is a lie. It is a term coined by people who have one or both of the following issues: 1. They lack the discipline to follow their system to the T every time. 2. Their system lacks the definition required to allow them to follow it exactly all the time. Harold's results would not decay because he decided to trade the entire NY session. Harold's results would decay because he decided to trade outside of the defined parameters of his system. He understands when his system works best...
Excellent post -spot on.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,133
  • Dec 20, 2018 7:23am Dec 20, 2018 7:23am
I am not sure why, but when I saw this video Hilmy83 came to mind. I have seen him win big and lose big but the reason he succeeds is that he doesn't give up. I have seen him jump right back in after a losing trade or day where many would have been frozen in fear. Regardless of your trading style you have to respect that in a person. This is an awesome video to watch from Arnold.

https://youtu.be/mNDA-o9yJNw
  • #1,134
  • Dec 20, 2018 8:35am Dec 20, 2018 8:35am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Why don't you make a New Year resolution to yourself. To stop galloping around systems and concentrate on one approach that you have studied ( Like Harold and his approach). Forward test it ( on demo if you wish). If successful it should become boring. Harold follows his rules and doesn't roam the planet sniffing other trading styles, he would rather trade his successful approach which he has outlined on this thread countless time. There are those who theorise and hop from debate to debate and there are those who trade.
Thanks. I already got my ticks in 5 mins. You really need to understand where I am coming from.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #1,135
  • Dec 20, 2018 8:42am Dec 20, 2018 8:42am
good discussion here guys

i had a rough asian session. closed it at -$3605.

interesting thing about sierra i found today is that if you have it open on the same computer and have tradingview as well, the damn thing will route the orders again when you place the orders from tradingview, essentially making it DOUBLE CONTRACTS!. i was so in shock when that happened. usually when i stream or record videos, i have two separate computers, and it would work just fine; where i trade off tradingview and the orders just show up on the other platform

I actually had to close my positions, then recheck everything is right, put 9 contracts in, then boom 18 contracts. i was like done at that point. Closed sierra and traded with partial tilt (9-12 contracts per position). I was upset that this technical error happened, and also myself for allowing the tilt to happen. but towards the end of the long ass session, i decided to calm down, write this in under "triggers for tilt", which never happened so i'm glad i got to experience it with small tilt instead of huge ass drawdown.

lesson here is don't open sierra on same computer as tradingview while trading. i'm not really sure if this is the cause, but we'l see.

but anyway, last stream of the month. we'll see if this shit happens again. hopefully i'll come out with a b/e day in this session. it's a monster month i tell you, hate to lose to tilt.
  • #1,136
  • Dec 20, 2018 9:19am Dec 20, 2018 9:19am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks. I already got my ticks in 5 mins. You really need to understand where I am coming from. {image}

Hmmm -Nice demo account, None the less - stick with the one approach then, and stop flying around like a pissed bumble bee in a tin can.

You really need to understand where I am coming from.

If only you also knew - the the signs of that ever happening have yet to appear.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,137
  • Dec 20, 2018 9:25am Dec 20, 2018 9:25am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} done. just piss shit poor read adn just got lucky. next time i'd probably get burned. time to reset. tomorrow is last day of december trading for me before going to Chicago. asian=565 US=1140 total=+$1705 {image} {image}
asian=-3605
US=2625
total=-$980

wanted to stop and not do the whole recovery becuase i treat each session independently. I made over 2600 during the US session, so if it wasn't for tilt in the last session, it woud've been a decent day. so i'm calling it a day and month

you can see i only took 7 trades..pretty average but the contracts filled was 60!. pretty fucked up..
this week is all screwed up

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time to tally up the week/month. oh yea..time to get paid bitches

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnAbKuGss4Y
  • #1,138
  • Dec 20, 2018 9:34am Dec 20, 2018 9:34am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Hmmm -Nice demo account, None the less - stick with the one approach then, and stop flying around like a pissed bumble bee in a tin can. You really need to understand where I am coming from. If only you also knew - the the signs of that ever happening have yet to appear.
dude lol. wtf your analogy crack me up
  • #1,139
  • Dec 20, 2018 9:45am Dec 20, 2018 9:45am
Lets tally up the week first

mon=1670
tue=615
wed=1705
thr=-980

week total=+$3010

Month tally

week 1=5780
week 2=21905
week 3=3010


month total=+$30,685
for some reason when i compare my weekly from this thread to the sierra stats, i'm off by $10, hmm...maybe sierra stole it
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but take a moment..and appreciate this shit...read back all that i posted from this month, the videos, livestreams..and truly appreciate this fucking pnl

after commission=$29, 648

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you can see that max contract was 12, NEVER was supposed to get over 9. but my average (for flat to flat) is kept at 5.

so i'm withdrawing my original 25k deposit + profits and starting the new year with 30k

i'll need to take next few days to see what i'll do with this journal..but in the meantime, i need to leave and get that thing i promised myself to buy..later

ice cube summarizes this well for...time to lit one up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyWcL88nbZs
  • #1,140
  • Dec 20, 2018 10:05am Dec 20, 2018 10:05am
Quoting hilmy83
Lets tally up the week first mon=1670 tue=615 wed=1705 thr=-980 week total=+$3010 Month tally week 1=5780 week 2=21905 week 3=3010 month total=+$30,685 for some reason when i compare my weekly from this thread to the sierra stats, i'm off by $10, hmm...maybe sierra stole it {image} but take a moment..and appreciate this shit...read back all that i posted from this month, the videos, livestreams..and truly appreciate this fucking pnl after commission=$29, 648 {image} {image} {image} {image} you can see that max contract was 12, NEVER was supposed...
Nice month. Haven't done my numbers for the month because I will probably trade Friday and a few days next week. Hard to stop when you have days like today.

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