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  • #68,641
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:46am Dec 19, 2018 5:46am
I am going to tell you all a little secret. The price will be going down.
EURUSD 5-3 EWs
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #68,642
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:49am Dec 19, 2018 5:49am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
To summarize my bias based on H1, Daily and Weekly: We stay long while H1 candles can't close below 1.1392 If current Daily candle can't close above 1.1395 tonight AND H1 candles then close below 1.1392, we might start planning sell orders. Stay Green
December 10, same time as now H4, is a potential institutional zone.
  • #68,643
  • Edited 7:29am Dec 19, 2018 5:51am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting fxreza
{quote} Until the Fed joins, there is ample time, however, the dollar index could have bottomed here. This week's gap down window has not been filled, and, I don't see a fundamental reason other than the political rhetoric against the Fed by Trump to have caused it. Also, no rhetoric against the Fed is likely to yield results since it's independent and data driven. Lastly, the Fed has shifted policy in recent years to follow and adjust policy according to the markets, so stability is perhaps better enforced for the sake of the Forex market. All...
- 3%+ growth in US vs 1%+ in the EU
- 2.5% interest in US vs 0% in EU
- Political unrest in the EU (Italy, France, Spain, UK, Germany) may lead to new elections soon and continued advances of populist parties.
- Brexit uncertainty will continue to undermine Euro.
- Slowing auto sales a big drawback for EU (Germany).
- Protectionist policies will continue uncertainty, favoring USD over Euro.

Long term, I see nothing but trouble for the euro area. The US has a very outside possibility of impeachment of Trump, but Pence is even more conservative, so the markets would not suffer much. Overall, I see US index reaching 120 in the next 2 or 3 years and EurUsd falling to parity or below.

Edit: I have been repeating a version of this since 2013 and EurUsd has fallen from 1.40, but slower than I expected. I underestimated the ability of can kicking down the road of Euro bureaucrats. It is all coming to a head soon though.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #68,644
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:55am Dec 19, 2018 5:55am
Quoting fxreza
{quote} December 10, same time as now H4, is a potential institutional zone.
You don't need to go back to December 10.. The current Green LWMA 49 (Shift:1) line on H4 is already right at that level for some time and it will act as support if price gets there but for now, we are focused on 1.1392.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #68,645
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:56am Dec 19, 2018 5:56am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} - 3%+ growth in US vs 1%+ in the EU - 2.5% interest in US vs 0% in EU - Political unrest in the EU (Italy, France, Spain, UK, Germany) may lead to new elections soon and continued advances of populist parties. - Brexit uncertainty will continue to undermine Euro. - Slowing auto sales a big drawback for EU (Germany). - Protectionist policies will continue uncertainty, favoring USD over Euro. Long term, I see nothing but trouble for the euro area. The US has an very outside possibility of impeachment of Trump, but Pence is even more conservative,...
I can see how you are looking at 1.2X from a historical perspective. The US economy is strong and should continue its strength with a potential normal 1.5 year limit recession.

All your other points except the protectionist policies are making sense to me. How do you find protectionist policies hurting EUR more that USD?
  • #68,646
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:00am Dec 19, 2018 6:00am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} You don't need to go back to December 10.. The current Green LWMA 49 (Shift:1) line on H4 is already right at that level for some time and it will act as support if price gets there but for now, we are focused on 1.1392. Stay Green
I see your point, thanks. It would be a nice combination of this level holding while 1.1392 also breaks.
  • #68,647
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:02am Dec 19, 2018 6:02am
Quoting Kimjoun
{quote} i just wondering how many pip your account can sustain after using all margin you say
My broker give me lavarage of 1:100 and margin call if i get to a loss of 90 pips
yes yes yes
  • #68,648
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:03am Dec 19, 2018 6:03am
Quoting fxreza
{quote} I see your point, thanks. It would be a nice combination of this level holding while 1.1392 also breaks.
That's why I don't like selling. While price is above green line on H1, H4 and Daily altogether it is obvious that one will see loads of bull pressure. I would prefer to continuously scalp short once/if H1 candles drop back below 1.1392. Trade safe.. Good luck to all..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #68,649
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:05am Dec 19, 2018 6:05am
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Good Evening! Trigged the sell limit at 1.1378. For now the same picture. A triangle consolidation that could be in or retest the yellow trendline @1.1420 and then down. It looks like to be done for me. As I said should look for 1.1200 area completing a cycle and then fly above 1.1470. {image} At the short term we should look for 1.1333/40 area and then we will be ranging until FED decisions. {image} With the pips be with you!
Good Morning!

The market gave no respite. Wave E as a double correction to 1.1425 is good for a rejection. STOP 1.1472.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #68,650
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:06am Dec 19, 2018 6:06am
It's holds for now
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yes yes yes
  • #68,651
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:09am Dec 19, 2018 6:09am
hello

i still think that eur/usd will hit up target at 1.1435 and there is no selling point now and dollar index will hit 95.91 before any rise in dxy

good luck for all
  • #68,652
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:10am Dec 19, 2018 6:10am
Bulls are exhausted (red bulleye signal), completed 5 Waves push, time to rest/consolidate/pullback.
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  • #68,653
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:10am Dec 19, 2018 6:10am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} That's why I don't like selling. While price is above green line on H1, H4 and Daily altogether it is obvious that one will see loads of bull pressure. I would prefer to continuously scalp short once/if H1 candles drop back below 1.1392. Trade safe.. Good luck to all.. Stay Green
I regret that I open a position without waiting for your comments today. Thank you for your helpful and educational comments.
  • #68,654
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:13am Dec 19, 2018 6:13am
Quoting fxreza
{quote} I can see how you are looking at 1.2X from a historical perspective. The US economy is strong and should continue its strength with a potential normal 1.5 year limit recession. All your other points except the protectionist policies are making sense to me. How do you find protectionist policies hurting EUR more that USD?
Simple answer: The US is mostly a domestic market economy, getting even bigger with new tax reductions. Europe is an exporting machine. Tariffs (Protectionism) will kill Europe. They are also way overtaxed at a domestic level.

Protectionism will not affect the US much. They will sell a few less iPhones but their energy exports are booming and those will not be affected. Farm subsidies will also help farmers while the trade war lasts.

Overall, there is no contest. Europe losses big time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #68,655
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:14am Dec 19, 2018 6:14am
Good morning everyone. My first sell of today at 1.14032 Tp open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #68,656
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:18am Dec 19, 2018 6:18am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Simple answer: The US is mostly a domestic market economy, getting even bigger with new tax reductions. Europe is an exporting machine. Tariffs (Protectionism) will kill Europe. They are also way overtaxed at a domestic level. Protectionism will not affect the US much. They will sell a few less iPhones but their energy exports are booming and those will not be affected. Farm subsidies will also help farmers while the trade war lasts. Overall, there is no contest. Europe losses big time.
Thanks for the explanation. Your relative perspective makes sense. While tariffs do not help either economies, relatively, it's definitely a survival game until the other gives up.
  • #68,657
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:28am Dec 19, 2018 6:28am
Look forward for this H4 candle turns into real pinbar, and south we go !!!
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #68,658
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:29am Dec 19, 2018 6:29am
Quoting emicovi
Good morning everyone. My first sell of today at 1.14032 Tp open. {image}
Are you monitoring your trades every second?

You should probably have a set TP in mind in case of volatility. But then again it'd be juicy if it drops and you didn't close it prematurely but taking such chances in forex is the equivalent of gambling, try to avoid it.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #68,659
  • Edited 6:54am Dec 19, 2018 6:31am | Edited 6:54am

disclaimer

H1 TF ─ Weekly Pivot Fibs ─ NY session
TP: November NFP high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H1 TF ─ Daily Pivot Fibs ─ NY session
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H1 TF ─ Weekly Pivot Fibs & Volume Profile ─ NY session
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1_VP.JPG Size: 146 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #68,660
  • Dec 19, 2018 6:31am Dec 19, 2018 6:31am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Simple answer: The US is mostly a domestic market economy, getting even bigger with new tax reductions. Europe is an exporting machine. Tariffs (Protectionism) will kill Europe. They are also way overtaxed at a domestic level. Protectionism will not affect the US much. They will sell a few less iPhones but their energy exports are booming and those will not be affected. Farm subsidies will also help farmers while the trade war lasts. Overall, there is no contest. Europe losses big time.
Kudos Alorente and no offence, and i´m sorry if out of bounds. Right wing answer lol. there is a contest! exporting tech and in my point of wiev asia winning. In really long term I cannot see anything other than the usd is will be at least equal to eur. Now I´m not interested in that long term, and I´m wondering who can predict FOMC outcome?
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