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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #44,141
  • Dec 14, 2018 7:47am Dec 14, 2018 7:47am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} It sounds like we have similar backgrounds. I traded forex Xau and Oil. I did read the Scott Carney books and looked for threads talking about harmonics...that is how I found this thread. I don't have Mr.Pip's system down to a T yet. Since we have both traded live.. pulling the trigger is not a scary thing. If a person can't make money on demo, then they would most likely lose their real account. Of course there are some things that I would not do on a real account that I do on demo. However, that is an issue of money management. As far...
Just you're thoughts, which you provided . Similar situation indeed. I have been profitable this year trading forex (0-12% probably average around 5-6% a month) but I have had to trade higher TFs due to working a fulltime job 8-5pm EST m-f. I would really like to be more active in the markets and recently discovered that I can trade the Nikkei from 7pm to 11pm. Indeed I agree that if you can't succeed on demo your chances of making it live are nil. I agree regarding trading a smaller demo account to force yourself to manage risk/money appropriately. My demo account is large (not sure how to change that on sierra chart through AMP) but I feel a combo of the acct size and the fact that it's demo has led me to do some things that would get me into trouble on a smaller live acct. For example, in demo I have had great success taking rotations at a .382 retrace and scaling in if they reach .618, etc. When I start my live acct I will probably be forced to skip these opportunities due to act size and R:R. I just won't have that same comfort of knowing that in the end...its just a demo. I know you said you intend to tell yourself that your live acct a demo but I wager that is going to be very difficult in practice.
Process over outcome.
  • #44,142
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:09am Dec 14, 2018 8:09am
Quoting Chrysmere
{quote} Just you're thoughts, which you provided . Similar situation indeed. I have been profitable this year trading forex (0-12% probably average around 5-6% a month) but I have had to trade higher TFs due to working a fulltime job 8-5pm EST m-f. I would really like to be more active in the markets and recently discovered that I can trade the Nikkei from 7pm to 11pm. Indeed I agree that if you can't succeed on demo your chances of making it live are nil. I agree regarding trading a smaller demo account to force yourself to manage risk/money...
It sounds like you are headed in the right direction. If your techincal analysis work on demo ( And demo is on the live market) then they will work out on a live trade.

The only difference between demo and live is the emotional part of losing you hard earn cashed that you used to fund your account.
In my opinion, if you trade a demo account with the mental idea...that if you lose your demo account you wouldn't dare trade with real funds.

Then tell yourself that you won't trade real money until you can trade a demo account with the same mental risk.

I feel that a person should demo trade as though it is the real thing.. Well as much as possible that is.

Just like a flight simulator. If you are learning to fly a 747 they won't let you practice on the real 747 airplane. They make you use a demo flight simulator. You have to fly that simulator as though it is the real thing. If you keep crashing in simulation, then why would they risk letting a pilot fly the real thing.

Demo trading is like this.

It sound like your issue is the same as everyone... 1. You need a large starting capital to take the edge off of your mind. Meaning.. an account that you know how much of it you are willing to lose without stress if you are wrong. 2. How much you are willing to risk on each trade if you are wrong.

For example... if you traded a $1000 USD on forex.... 1% of $1000 USD would be $10 USD If you risked losing 1% on your trade, then you might open up a lot size of 10 cents per pip. In this scenario the market would need to move against you 100 points to lose 1% or $10 USD of a $1000 USD account.

So, in my view... the psychology in trading is about what percent of our account we are willing to lose on a single trade. I believe I am the only person on this thread to address this important part of trading with a detailed example. Yes.. bragging a tad bit. lol..

alright.. that is just my two cents, fellow trading bro.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,143
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:19am Dec 14, 2018 8:19am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} It sounds like you are headed in the right direction. If your techincal analysis work on demo ( And demo is on the live market) then they will work out on a live trade. The only difference between demo and live is the emotional part of losing you hard earn cashed that you used to fund your account. In my opinion, if you trade a demo account with the mental idea...that if you lose your demo account you wouldn't dare trade with real funds. Then tell yourself that you won't trade real money until you can trade a demo account with the same mental...
Good point with the flight sim comparison. I actually have experienced what you are referring to with larger account size reducing stress. I did start with a small account to trade forex ($500) but through winnings and small additional deposits I got it up to around $2k. At the $1,200 to $1,500 mark, stress certainly decreased because I was able to risk a smaller % to make the same profits. I have told friends and family several times: If my account was $100k I would have made x amount this month ($5-$10k). However, I do see the issue with saying these things as scaling is much easier said than done.
Process over outcome.
  • #44,144
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:21am Dec 14, 2018 8:21am
Quoting Chrysmere
{quote} Hi Pair-me-up. Excellent results. I have been demo trading as well (but the mini-nikkei 225) after trading forex live for a couple years. I have definitely noticed a huge difference in my emotions when trading the demo account. I am able to follow the rules of Damian's trade plan to a T and taking money out of the market has felt like taking candy from a baby. My worry is that it will be much more difficult once I go live. I think the #1 thing is to just follow the rules with the same discipline I have had with demo where there is no FOMO...
I read your other post regarding the mini Nikkei and was curious about it (I too suffer from a full time J.O.B.). Anyway, I pulled up a Dorman/NT chart for the Nikkei and the trading hours appear to be for 9am-4:15pm. Also, I couldn't get the e-mini chart to load (ENY) only the full sized $25 for 5 points. While typing I noticed that you responded to pair-me-up that you use AMP, could this be the reason? Thank you
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #44,145
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:28am Dec 14, 2018 8:28am
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} I read your other post regarding the mini Nikkei and was curious about it (I too suffer from a full time J.O.B.). Anyway, I pulled up a Dorman/NT chart for the Nikkei and the trading hours appear to be for 9am-4:15pm. Also, I couldn't get the e-mini chart to load (ENY) only the full sized $25 for 5 points. While typing I noticed that you responded to pair-me-up that you use AMP, could this be the reason? Thank you
Correct! I went with AMP because it seems that AMP and Interactive Brokers were the two major brokers that let you trade mini-nikkei 225 futures. The hours are perfect for me on the east coast US as the markets have just opened in Japan and volatility is picking up as I put my toddler to sleep. I am using Sierra Charts and it has been great (only been using it for about a week). I know Damian mentioned making a switch to Sierra soon too. From what I understand, AMP has better Nikkei data through CQG than what IB provides but it's more expensive.
Process over outcome.
  • #44,146
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:40am Dec 14, 2018 8:40am
Morning all Had to find something with a little more Volume than the YM this morning Short on NQ and will probably be it till after the new year
FYI I know the orders do not equal at the moment I have adjusted them manually
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Always Learning
  • #44,147
  • Dec 14, 2018 8:43am Dec 14, 2018 8:43am
Quoting Chrysmere
{quote} Correct! I went with AMP because it seems that AMP and Interactive Brokers were the two major brokers that let you trade mini-nikkei 225 futures. The hours are perfect for me on the east coast US as the markets have just opened in Japan and volatility is picking up as I put my toddler to sleep. I am using Sierra Charts and it has been great (only been using it for about a week). I know Damian mentioned making a switch to Sierra soon too. From what I understand, AMP has better Nikkei data through CQG than what IB provides but it's more expensive....
Good information, thank you!
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #44,148
  • Edited 4:05pm Dec 14, 2018 3:20pm | Edited 4:05pm
What did Mr. Market do today even with low Volume
and the power of the Fibs
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Always Learning
  • #44,149
  • Dec 14, 2018 3:43pm Dec 14, 2018 3:43pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Today's Expectations on the EURUSD 15M {image}
Hi Mr. Pip. Am a new appreciative follower from YouTube and fellow Floridian going through your posts first round. Got a question. Did you leave out a LH on purpose? If so why not count this high as a LH? Thanks and congrats on the new baby!
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Anything is Possible!Side with the Probable!
  • #44,150
  • Dec 15, 2018 10:16pm Dec 15, 2018 10:16pm
Hi, all,

Got a newbie question here:


What if there are many harmonic patterns on one chart (big and small, with different PRZs) what are the rules for determining whether or not a pattern is worth trading?

Thanks for your time!
  • #44,151
  • Dec 16, 2018 5:21am Dec 16, 2018 5:21am
Quoting zhangshuo
Hi, all, Got a newbie question here: What if there are many harmonic patterns on one chart (big and small, with different PRZs) what are the rules for determining whether or not a pattern is worth trading? Thanks for your time!
Hi, I just noticed you asked this question already a few days ago. Chrysmere's answer was actually a pretty good one!

Quoting zhangshuo
Hi, Mr.Pip (or any other experienced harmonic trader): I just recently started learning to trade harmonics. I have a newbie question while going through the materials: If there are a lot of harmonic patterns on one chart (big and small, with different PRZs), how do I decide which one to trade? Can you talk about your thought process? Thank you for your time and help! Shuo
Quoting Chrysmere
{quote} I think it will come down to: trade the orderflow you are trading and dont mix them up. Use the appropriate stoploss and target for the orderflow you are trading. If an ABCD is completing to the upside (meaning a correction to the downside is likely) on a higher TF it may affect the probabilities of a long working out on a shorter timeframe. You can be cognizant of this and you will learn these things as you become more experienced but I think the general philosophy here is to stick to your orderflow you are interested in and trade the expectation....
The important part to your question: "I think the general philosophy here is to stick to your orderflow you are interested in and trade the expectation."
  • #44,152
  • Dec 16, 2018 7:55am Dec 16, 2018 7:55am
Quoting zhangshuo
Hi, all, Got a newbie question here: What if there are many harmonic patterns on one chart (big and small, with different PRZs) what are the rules for determining whether or not a pattern is worth trading? Thanks for your time!
I just learned from Pair-Me-Up to follow the bigger trend direction.
  • #44,153
  • Dec 16, 2018 9:25am Dec 16, 2018 9:25am
Quoting Hansl
{quote} Hi, I just noticed you asked this question already a few days ago. Chrysmere's answer was actually a pretty good one! {quote} {quote} The important part to your question: "I think the general philosophy here is to stick to your orderflow you are interested in and trade the expectation."

I'm certainly no expert with this method but I tend to agree. I initially would go from 70t to higher volume(?) charts then back to look for trends and such. I do much better when I just stick with one chart.
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #44,154
  • Dec 16, 2018 12:59pm Dec 16, 2018 12:59pm
ok, thx for your replies! Can any experienced trader take a look at the screenshot and explain to me how you would go about choosing which pattern to trade (your thought process). This image illustrates my question about different PRZs (high and low, big and small). THx for your time!

Shuo
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  • #44,155
  • Dec 17, 2018 7:45am Dec 17, 2018 7:45am
Hello Traders, Looking forward to tomorrow's live stream and spending some time with you all. I will post the link here like always.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #44,156
  • Dec 17, 2018 9:21am Dec 17, 2018 9:21am
My trades. Enough for today
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  • #44,157
  • Dec 18, 2018 6:48am Dec 18, 2018 6:48am
Taking a trade while waiting for the live stream to learn how to trade like a pro!
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,158
  • Dec 18, 2018 7:14am Dec 18, 2018 7:14am
Hello, Mr. Pip (https://www.forexfactory.com/mr.*pip). Glad you're back, looking forward to today's live stream. I have a question for you:

Question about ABCD vs AB=CD. Are the rules of engagement is the same? I mean if we have AВ=CD and entry at D completion, stop goes over 161.8, BE at 38.2 and target is 61.8 of the pattern? I will bring an example from yesterday.

It will be great if you answer in stream. Thank you and have a nice holidays.
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  • #44,159
  • Dec 18, 2018 7:39am Dec 18, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Taking a trade while waiting for the live stream to learn how to trade like a pro! {image}
Price is very close to my stop loss. If taken out then I will look to buy at cheaper prices depending on the direction of order flow.
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #44,160
  • Dec 18, 2018 7:44am Dec 18, 2018 7:44am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} Price is very close to my stop loss. If taken out then I will look to buy at cheaper prices depending on the direction of order flow. {image}
Taken out for +130
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
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