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  • #6,181
  • Dec 6, 2018 7:40am Dec 6, 2018 7:40am
EURAUD potential short. If 5772 is gone it could wash.
  • #6,182
  • Dec 6, 2018 7:54am Dec 6, 2018 7:54am
Quoting janpec1000
EURAUD potential short. If 5772 is gone it could wash.
EURAUD ballz in short, heavy.
  • #6,183
  • Dec 6, 2018 7:57am Dec 6, 2018 7:57am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} EURAUD ballz in short, heavy.
EURAUD out, half covered for gains the rest break even, some heavy bidder is keeping this one up. This could result in short squeeze now if it goes above X.578
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  • #6,184
  • Dec 6, 2018 11:38am Dec 6, 2018 11:38am
Quoting janpec1000
Some tape examples today from TST on equities. Basically the same pattern explained on previous pages: low float stock, bs news, bad financials of company, big gap up on low pre market volume. Once that is in, then watching the tape when sellers start to hit it is the key, watching for big orders only once the flushing starts usually this trash assets wont be able to reclaim it unless some big soaker decides to jump in and soak all the sellers and shorts. 2,07 was line in the sand where big buyer came in, so once that is spotted you need to watch...
Dark pool activity on TST today, flash moves with heavy drops and bounces within miliseconds, large dark pool player exiting shorts on limits bellow on bids or rebalancing long orders by selling into his own bids, either way unusual activity and something to stay away from, especially in dead market.
4 million shares filled on first 1 minute swipe (sold and filled on bid bounce), and also 2 next ones with above 99% of market volume.
This draws line in the sand, if the lower side of bid fills gets broken by market its heavy bear signal, if it doesnt then there is only one way to go. Pointing this example out because dark pool players are everywhere but rarelly its that obvious to spot them. Those orders were not present in limit order liquidity books.
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  • #6,185
  • Dec 6, 2018 11:39am Dec 6, 2018 11:39am
Last trade for today AETI short, null demand. Trash asset, no demand trough the whole day, likely to wash.
  • #6,186
  • Dec 6, 2018 12:11pm Dec 6, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting janpec1000
Last trade for today AETI short, null demand. Trash asset, no demand trough the whole day, likely to wash.
Could you please share your approximate $return/hour of effort you put in the markets? It's really admirable what you do day in and day out. I could not for the life in me put so much rigor unless I am making atleast $500/hour :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,187
  • Dec 6, 2018 12:24pm Dec 6, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Could you please share your approximate $return/hour of effort you put in the markets? It's really admirable what you do day in and day out. I could not for the life in me put so much rigor unless I am making atleast $500/hour :-)
Sure ill put some end of month results for Dec, to be fully transparent i am here in first place to enjoy the game, second reseaons i have 2 streamed passive income from 2 business so no matter the time inputed the check comes in (non trading related) and as most traders that have been in market 10 years or so will tell you game first money second.
Money per hour is only relevant if you have to sacrifice a lot that you are not willing to. Generally people with drive to game are willing to sacrifice a lot compared to the rest thus seeming very unusual.
  • #6,188
  • Dec 6, 2018 12:29pm Dec 6, 2018 12:29pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Make sure you always scale out some of profits (close half of position) when it goes into your favour in 1 : 1 structural depth size. {image}
legit way for a trend follower. Are you one? Curious how do you define the next portion of RR after taking half the profit at 1:1. Please feel free to point to a post when you have covered your exit strategy (to avoid typing a response).
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,189
  • Dec 6, 2018 12:49pm Dec 6, 2018 12:49pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} legit way for a trend follower. Are you one? Curious how do you define the next portion of RR after taking half the profit at 1:1. Please feel free to point to a post when you have covered your exit strategy (to avoid typing a response).
No such thing as trend follower. A trend follower is a blind man believing the price will go into his favour more because it has done so before. I trust in behavioural statistics and tape, thats where the TP and SL are structured from. TPing is based on 1000s of plays of overall what-price-does after pattern is on plus on current pattern active tape / spread behaviour indicating heavy bidders or offers and what they do. Anything else that that is just a wishful thinking.

To put it in example: how would you know what average kid can throw stone X meters infront? You grab 1000s of them, make a test, see if there is consistency of performance and aim for that to be potential future expectation. And in between you also listen to some biological exceptions of those that are very fit ( heavy bid) likely to indicate over-performance. Thus consistency of performance (rules of nature / code) combined with tape (rules of exceptions).
  • #6,190
  • Dec 6, 2018 1:43pm Dec 6, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} No such thing as trend follower. A trend follower is a blind man believing the price will go into his favour more because it has done so before. I trust in behavioural statistics and tape, thats where the TP and SL are structured from. TPing is based on 1000s of plays of overall what-price-does after pattern is on plus on current pattern active tape / spread behaviour indicating heavy bidders or offers and what they do. Anything else that that is just a wishful thinking. To put it in example: how would you know what average kid can throw...
oh boy! you beat me 10 times in complexity. I love it LOL

I believe we are aligned in understanding "behavioral science" when it comes to price movements. If we dont, then trading is just a guessing game relying on luck towards positive outcome (shoot the dart, if it lands well, take a screenshot and tweet!). if you are reading tape then you are somewhat of a quant+chartist. So, putting your quant hat on for a moment, please tell me if you see anything wrong with this simplistic approach to understand the dynamics involved in movements.

The tools used does not matter but for this sake, let's say we run a EMA(50,100) cross on a instrument 24x5 market like NQ. You let this run thru the ringer of say 2-3 years, measure the frequency of cross, measure the distance between crosses, measure the gap(distance) between the two averages, combine them with how they reach to daily H/L ranges etc etc... and then you create customized statistical "signature" that mimics behavior. Trim out the edges (like adverse 2 or 3 atr type moves) from the result set and that becomes your playing field for either "follow the trend" or "trade the ranges" with stop loss and take profit distances coming what these measurement results (average of the averages) to match with the daily/weekly/monthly goals.

I simply cannot rule out the fact (outside of tape reading) that I can only anticipate future from the past and hence this quantifiable approach to play with the "scale". No solution is perfect in my experience but doing it methodically this way gives us a decent footprint on what we are up against. You monitor 100s of stocks which is an astronomical task. I used to do the same across 28 currency pairs. Now with futures, just one pair, one timeframe, one trading window, one pattern, one tape reading signature, one set of behavoural signatures is (hopefully) enough to generate consistent income. Agree?
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,191
  • Dec 6, 2018 5:05pm Dec 6, 2018 5:05pm
It's rare to find someone with a command of price action. I browse the threads daily and usually find nothing interesting as most are chasing indicator-based systems. The title of the thread is elusive but I clicked on it today and was pleasantly surprised. Understanding where sellers get decisively beat by buyers or vice versa is crucial. Today the YM sold and UJ followed. PA showed the reversal. Anyway your thread is refreshing and sorry I didn't see it sooner. Following for now. Safe trading.
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  • #6,192
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:21am Dec 7, 2018 1:21am
NZDUSD!!!
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  • #6,193
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:32am Dec 7, 2018 1:32am
Quoting fxmir
NZDUSD!!! {image}
Nice! I got in the same trade, where is your TP?
  • #6,194
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:48am Dec 7, 2018 1:48am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} oh boy! you beat me 10 times in complexity. I love it LOL I believe we are aligned in understanding "behavioral science" when it comes to price movements. If we dont, then trading is just a guessing game relying on luck towards positive outcome (shoot the dart, if it lands well, take a screenshot and tweet!). if you are reading tape then you are somewhat of a quant+chartist. So, putting your quant hat on for a moment, please tell me if you see anything wrong with this simplistic approach to understand the dynamics involved in movements....
It depends on many factors, what and how you trade will depend on your capital, the time you are willing or able to put into market, your discipline to follow rules well....many things so there is no black or white answer if one should only trade 1 asset. You can certainly argue that if you are well capitalized and have setup that doesnt require a lot of input time that performs well that would be best way for anyone to go, but often thats not the case. For anyone who is still not consistent and still considers himself learning i would say its bad route to go, because you learn the most trough errors and for errors you need frequency and frequency comes trough pool of assets and plays. Thats how you advance the most, but if you consider yourself grounded with knowledge then sure why not only trade 1 asset.
Maybe it also has something to do with age, i see often the older traders get the less assets they trade.

As for EMA method, if you can read the tape and know where to focus on then really any indicator that you throw on chart is likely to work. Any edge in market is always going to be construct of many different variables that are somehow connected to order flow and behaviour, but its important to not get caught on the magic of EMAs. I know of a very good trader who uses EMAs in equities but he does fully realizies that there are 100 of overlapping variables that give him edge, EMAs are there just to have some visual guide.
As long as your trend following is well backed up with some proper data and tape i dont see a problem with following EMAs, but to be honest i would do it without them just raw price, because you will be stripping out too much of price for no good need.
  • #6,195
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:49am Dec 7, 2018 1:49am
Quoting fxmir
NZDUSD!!! {image}
Yup, a bit illiquid this one but decent setup.
  • #6,196
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:50am Dec 7, 2018 1:50am
Quoting Winston Reed
It's rare to find someone with a command of price action. I browse the threads daily and usually find nothing interesting as most are chasing indicator-based systems. The title of the thread is elusive but I clicked on it today and was pleasantly surprised. Understanding where sellers get decisively beat by buyers or vice versa is crucial. Today the YM sold and UJ followed. PA showed the reversal. Anyway your thread is refreshing and sorry I didn't see it sooner. Following for now. Safe trading. {image}
Cheers, if you have any questions let me know.
  • #6,197
  • Dec 7, 2018 2:15am Dec 7, 2018 2:15am
Quoting fxmir
NZDUSD!!! {image}
Hit my Tp got 1R
  • #6,198
  • Dec 7, 2018 2:40am Dec 7, 2018 2:40am
Watching USDCAD,USDJPY & GBPUSD
  • #6,199
  • Dec 7, 2018 3:24am Dec 7, 2018 3:24am
GBPUSD !! NFP News are publish today
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  • #6,200
  • Dec 7, 2018 3:56am Dec 7, 2018 3:56am
Quoting fxmir
GBPUSD !! NFP News are publish today {image}
I like the way you plotted this one, its defenetely potential play, on watch possibly ahead of NFP. Its not targeted attempt on supply but it is very likely going to squeeze if supply is absorbed either ahead or at the news.
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