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Pivot Trading

  • #22,961
  • Nov 24, 2018 3:05pm Nov 24, 2018 3:05pm
Quoting Ansab001
{quote} From a fundamental side I'm surprised you went fornthese. There is a very low probability it will pass in Parliament. It seems very likely you will see euro gain on gbp.
Yes, please don't try this at home!
As Davit and most people here trade H1 or M15 time-frames, you really need to strongly follow fundamentals.

But because I really suck in reading fundamentals, I stopped trying long time ago.
Instead of this I do pure technical analysis following daily, weekly or monthly charts.
Now 5 red news in one week is simply one candle for me...

For examle this EG is 300-400 pips range in the last 12+ months.
I see price rejected 4 times in a row from WR38 on Daily TF. That's good enough for me to trust this level for now.
And as no red red news in the last 12+ months on EUR/GBP had a power to break the range. Should I be worried this time ?


edit: grammar fix / i hate typos...
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #22,962
  • Edited 5:26pm Nov 24, 2018 5:14pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yours is incorrect. Always measure where price is coming from.In this case from top swing to low hence measurement from top to down.Opposite true if price was ascending from bottom then you measure from bottom.Hope it helps bigger fib numbers should always be closer to 100 easiest way to figure
But your measure is from bottom to top (you measured from actual low to previous high). I've made the measure from top to bottom (previous high to actual bottom).

So 100 should be on top but you have it at the bottom? I'm really confused now.
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #22,963
  • Nov 24, 2018 7:48pm Nov 24, 2018 7:48pm
Quoting Degolep
{quote} But your measure is from bottom to top (you measured from actual low to previous high). I've made the measure from top to bottom (previous high to actual bottom). So 100 should be on top but you have it at the bottom? I'm really confused now.
I tried to explain it but I'll do it again

Think price moving away from Zero 0
smaller fib 23 then 38 then 61 then 78 then 100

You can't measure backwards 78 then 61 38 23.This is incorrect! Look at my chart again
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #22,964
  • Nov 24, 2018 8:06pm Nov 24, 2018 8:06pm
next week, alot of NZD red news. will, nice move for N pair...
  • #22,965
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:44am Nov 25, 2018 12:44am
This is what I'm looking at this week,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #22,966
  • Nov 25, 2018 5:14am Nov 25, 2018 5:14am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Getting very intressting
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #22,967
  • Nov 25, 2018 5:34am Nov 25, 2018 5:34am
Quoting Egbert
{image} Getting very intressting
Who knows how much gap is waiting there at the market open
How big can you think!
  • #22,968
  • Edited 2:54pm Nov 25, 2018 6:11am | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I tried to explain it but I'll do it again Think price moving away from Zero 0 smaller fib 23 then 38 then 61 then 78 then 100 You can't measure backwards 78 then 61 38 23.This is incorrect! Look at my chart again
i think Degolep is the correct way to draw a fib swing because he's measuring from the previous bearish swing. Davit's swing top(0.0) should be at at 1.1468ish where he measured the bullish swing retracement.

Edit: well, since you have already banned me from this thread for such a small thing, i can only edit this previous post for the "correct" way to draw a fib retracement. I think that's what your gartley pattern picture says also. Always draw from the start of a swing 100.0 and your fib should be pointed slanted right towards your 0.0. Notice how your fib 618 is at 1.1323 and mine is at 1.1313?

You are way incorrect if you think that is a bullish retracement.
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  • #22,969
  • Nov 25, 2018 6:18am Nov 25, 2018 6:18am
my market open 5 am (my time) and big red news came 15 mins before market open. lets see if nzd pair make some gap
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  • #22,970
  • Edited 8:28am Nov 25, 2018 8:11am | Edited 8:28am
Just my notes for next week, not yet complete. If anybody has any thoughts it would be great to hear them. Thanks

News Events - ( Week 25- 30 November)
Themes: Tariffs, USD strength--> Risk Sentiment, Brexit

Sunday:
EU Brexit Summit: approved prime ministers brexit agreement (up) will it get through parliment (down)?
NZD retail sales - likely to be good, any deviation from +1% will likely have a meaningful impact (economy vs household purchasing power down due to currency weakness)?

Monday:
German IFo Business - A leading indicator so has a big impact a good print = EU supported at critical fib.
Draghi Speak -Econ Meeting "Outlining Monetary policy" ( if strength - potentially only temporary due to Weds and Thurs events?)

Tuesday:
USD Consumer Confidence: Leading indicator - strong usd/rising interest rates/ cheaper oil - result likely slightly weaker but not much movement?
RBNZ Financial Stablility Report: House Prices(up) Fuel prices(down) and wages (?)

Wednesday:
USD prelim GDP - Likely outcome = reasonable due to tax cuts.
Powell Speaks - If he signals that the Fed may pause after a December hike, then markets will respond positively.

Thursday:
- FOMC - dependent on powell speech.
- NZD business Confidence (likely lower due to tariffs & china slow down) less important than news at start of week.

Friday:
-29th November - G20 Trump Xi Ping meet trade tariffs (has oil priced in the outcome?)- could relate to Egbert scenario, positive through week then fall off cliff? :-). The Summit kicks off on Friday and ends on Saturday.
- CAD GDP. See what happens with FOMC & tariffs - Close all by weekend.
  • #22,971
  • Nov 25, 2018 9:52am Nov 25, 2018 9:52am
Quoting J1mm
{quote} Seems everyone had fun today with CAD? {image}

  1. Hello, can we share this indicator?What I'm using is at the bottom of the screen, and it takes up a lot of screen time.

Attached Image
Science and art
  • #22,972
  • Nov 25, 2018 11:29am Nov 25, 2018 11:29am
Quoting WGChina
{quote} Hello, can we share this indicator?What I'm using is at the bottom of the screen, and it takes up a lot of screen time. {image}
Sure!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 LRSF Magnified Price v1.18.ex4   53 KB | 657 downloads
Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #22,973
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:00pm Nov 25, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting CrocodileRex
{quote} i think Degolep is the correct way to draw a fib swing because he's measuring from the previous bearish swing. Davit's swing top(0.0) should be at at 1.1468ish where he measured the bullish swing retracement.
He is incorrect and you are incorrect.Nothing personal.
Lot of "traders" get this wrong.I stated I measure retracement.
I drew correctly image on left bullish retracement. you both have been removed for wasting my time since simple google search would of solved your issues
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #22,974
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:09pm Nov 25, 2018 12:09pm
On trading Brexit news is green which great news for my positions heavy long both EU and GU
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #22,975
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:18pm Nov 25, 2018 12:18pm
Quoting Rdr
I would like to know the substantial differences and advantages of using pivot points instead of normal s / r
removed
I threw a dart and it landed on Fib pivot and IT became my SUBSTANTIAL PREFERENCE
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #22,976
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:28pm Nov 25, 2018 12:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yours is incorrect. Always measure where price is coming from.In this case from top swing to low hence measurement from top to down.Opposite true if price was ascending from bottom then you measure from bottom.Hope it helps bigger fib numbers should always be closer to 100 easiest way to figure
Hi Davit
If you are referring to this picture sorry to say it but you have it wrong! the swing is from top to bottom of the screen and what you are measure is the retracement from 0-100.
Unless I am doing it wrong for more than 20 years
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku....cci_retracemen

Green pips
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  • #22,977
  • Edited 1:05pm Nov 25, 2018 12:28pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} removed I threw a dart and it landed on Fib pivot and IT became my SUBSTANTIAL PREFERENCE

Davit.....I can't believe in this thread people are asking such questions....my god....i spend time reading so much,the answers are simply in a search,they waste internet bandwidth your time and FF online storage :-) Your history has never proven wrong my friend....keep going :-)
  • #22,978
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:47pm Nov 25, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting Ace66
{quote} Hi Davit If you are referring to this picture sorry to say it but you have it wrong! the swing is from top to bottom of the screen and what you are measure is the retracement from 0-100. Unless I am doing it wrong for more than 20 years https://stockcharts.com/school/doku....cci_retracemen Green pips {image}
This is the last time I am going to-post about this.Link you gave is obvious
Notice Decline part! Pull back retrecement
Ironic you are giving me the link...and telling me I am wrong
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #22,979
  • Nov 25, 2018 1:05pm Nov 25, 2018 1:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} As it gets closer to 5pm all prices stretch that's because of low liquidity and broker manipulation. AN for example can have over 20pips spread in seconds.Think how many SL's get hit on closing.Usually unsuspected new traders...fall victim. Brokers have their own in house programs that stretch this even more in short its normal.Once markets open spreads get smaller until they become normal.
Thanks for the explanation Davit. I am not too worried as I normally anticipate traders closing positions for the weekend, causing some of this behavior. I guess the difference in price on my chart vs trade spread box threw me off a bit. Moving forward...green pips All.
  • #22,980
  • Nov 25, 2018 4:13pm Nov 25, 2018 4:13pm
Nice Red numbers on NZD helps AN longs

EC worth tracking
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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