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Plan the Trade

  • #9,041
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:19pm Nov 14, 2018 1:19pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} There's a lesson here Div. If people stuck to one approach like you, by keeping it simple ( KISS) - instead of agonising over a screen full of indicators and lines that would delight a fauvist, then they might turn a consistent profit. Acres of printed angst simply dilutes the attraction and effectiveness of this thread. No one knows what will happen at the right hand side of the screen; your best bet is a best guess, based on minimal information provided by price action alone. If you have an edge it will soon show. Then you have to manage...
Let's not forget, Harold has SEVEN long years backing his strategy to turn it into a boring one. I bet even he struggled in his early years.
Staying in my lane...
  • #9,042
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:19pm Nov 14, 2018 1:19pm
Hey Neil nice post been 123 ing it for 8 years whether taking it on the break or the pullback after all these years it's still the one. Hey maybe I could right a song. Crap already written
  • #9,043
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:27pm Nov 14, 2018 1:27pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks and Thanks. I am clearing simulation data and starting from scratch. My first breakout failure is playing a nasty tune in my head. rinse repeat I guess :- EDIT: I think it is the 00 line that is causing the range. It will probably break out during the last hour and trading last hour is a scary proposition (for me). {quote} I think you should do a video too :-)
Certain things in life that shouldn't be seen. Circus bears on mini bikes and magnumfreaks on video. Jus' sayin' LOL!

For me, trading is about 1 thing. Find the direction. NQ is a pure momentum trade in my opinion. If the trend is up look for a way to go long. If it is down look for a way to go short. I use moving averages to determine that direction for that time frame only. I know that sounds simple but it really is that simple. I am not talking about moving average crosses but let the moving averages show you the trend for whatever time frame you are looking at. Then, let price show you where it is in relation to that trend. Key Point: I DO NOT LET HIGHER TIME FRAMES DICTATE A BIAS FOR DIRECTION ON LOWER TIME FRAMES. The 5 minute chart will not determine whether or not I am looking to go long or short on a 1 minute chart. If a trade develops on the 5 min and I am not in a trade, I will take it based solely on the 5 minute chart.

To trade like I trade you have to change the way you think about moving averages.

Try this: open a 1,000 tick chart and put just one moving average on it, the 200 ema. Make sure your candles start during electronic trading hours (ETH). What has price done every time it touches it today since market open? Now, figure out a way to determine when the down trend started. The 200 ema by itself doesn't tell the whole story. It's possible for the trend to still be down when the price is above the 200 ema. Just before 10 am (eastern time US) this morning I went short when price was clearly above the 200 ema. Why? Longer term trend was still down and price showed a really nice pull back that gave me a great entry. Only a 28 tick stop yielded 330 ish ticks. Picture below shows only the 200 ema. There are a few other ema's that I use. Now, keep scrolling back in time and look at the chart. There are times when the trend has already started and price never comes back to the 200 ema so I developed a way for me to enter an active trend. It involves moving averages (go figure). Looking for a pullback strong enough that price gets on the other side of an ema then entering with the trend. I would rather not tell everyone what other moving averages I use. I would rather if someone is interested in this style of trading, develop their own version that works for them. It will work better for you that way.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 12-18 (1000 Tick) 2018_11_14 (2_02_40 PM).png Size: 135 KB


Simplicity is the key. You don't need every tick of a trend just a small portion will make your day. What if you took just 80 ticks from every opportunity today? You would be up 320 ticks.
  • #9,044
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:34pm Nov 14, 2018 1:34pm
Notice the 123 setups at the ema just saying
  • #9,045
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:36pm Nov 14, 2018 1:36pm
Quoting Divergence
Notice the 123 setups at the ema just saying
EXACTLY!! LOL! The ema's just help me to see the pull backs and to determine the general direction. It's what works for me.
  • #9,046
  • Edited 1:57pm Nov 14, 2018 1:44pm | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} EXACTLY!! LOL! The ema's just help me to see the pull backs and to determine the general direction. It's what works for me.
And for me and a host of others too. It is as old as the hills
  • #9,047
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:58pm Nov 14, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Certain things in life that shouldn't be seen. Circus bears on mini bikes and magnumfreaks on video. Jus' sayin' LOL! For me, trading is about 1 thing. Find the direction. NQ is a pure momentum trade in my opinion. If the trend is up look for a way to go long. If it is down look for a way to go short. I use moving averages to determine that direction for that time frame only. I know that sounds simple but it really is that simple. I am not talking about moving average crosses but let the moving averages show you the trend for whatever time...
yes i am pretty much a momentum trader too. Except i use vwap instead. that volume factor just makes sense to me+the deviations to tell me when it's time to fade back into vwap (like it's doing now)
  • #9,048
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:58pm Nov 14, 2018 1:58pm
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication quoted by Leonardo da Vinci
  • #9,049
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:59pm Nov 14, 2018 1:59pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} And for me and a host of others too. It is as old as the hills
anybody who's not over 40 here? feel like a AARP meeting up in here ..

j/k.. i respect my elders....sometimes
  • #9,050
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:05pm Nov 14, 2018 2:05pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} anybody who's not over 40 here? feel like a AARP meeting up in here .. j/k.. i respect my elders....sometimes
eh?? What did you say sonny?

By the way, look at that beautiful move back to VWAP. Moving averages aren't the only tool I use.
  • #9,051
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:39pm Nov 14, 2018 2:39pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} yeah man. Algos are ruling the world. Cant trade on price alone, cant trade on volume alone. decisions decisions :-( Please participate dude. We could use your industry insight. is your diversified portfolio purely within the futures market ?
CTA like diversified portfolio trading is boring.. It covers futures, FX, base metals, eq indices.. basically the more the merrier ~ 1.5 sharpe and 15% annual return with 10% vol. Its ant's work really and people invest in these for diversification (these strategies have good returns when there is panic in the street - i.e. long trends). Not something a retail trader will be attracted to..

on short term trading, i can't advise to people who trade manually since that is always a judgement game. some have it but hard to find those. on quant basis, you can do something with high freq data but IT resources needed for that are large so outside retail trading realm mostly.

On retail side, you either want to do long term trading (based on fundamental macro trends) - small leverage etc to get 10-20% annualized return or want to find area of market which is not efficient yet and capitalize on that (over time this edge will go away so keep looking for new edges).
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #9,052
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:44pm Nov 14, 2018 2:44pm
I think Michael Jackson sang it best " ABC its simple as 123
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1542228180128.png Size: 26 KB
  • #9,053
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:45pm Nov 14, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Certain things in life that shouldn't be seen. Circus bears on mini bikes and magnumfreaks on video. Jus' sayin' LOL! For me, trading is about 1 thing. Find the direction. NQ is a pure momentum trade in my opinion. If the trend is up look for a way to go long. If it is down look for a way to go short. I use moving averages to determine that direction for that time frame only. I know that sounds simple but it really is that simple. I am not talking about moving average crosses but let the moving averages show you the trend for whatever time...
Thanks for sharing man. Today is just a completely turn-off day for me. Even a bounce off EMA went the other way about 10 mins ago. I go long, she goes short, I go short, she goes long on and on. It is a 100% reversal of what I experienced yesterday. I need a break from posting to figure this out on my own and perhaps go live without making a flash announcement :-) I am also trying to shake off some bitter memories from the past... things I said I would not do and still continue to do like forum participation, asking for help, listening to others, chatting on skype, investigating every setup or trading style etc etc. I need to stop being a "chatterbox" here on this thread and complete my journey of atleast two rounds of market replays with what I have going.
Staying in my lane...
  • #9,054
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:48pm Nov 14, 2018 2:48pm
Vee you might be your worst enemy
  • #9,055
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:08pm Nov 14, 2018 3:08pm
Quoting Divergence
I think Michael Jackson sang it best " ABC its simple as 123 {image}
Took the short at 6845. Just closed it because it is 4 pm here. 290+ ticks.
  • #9,056
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:24pm Nov 14, 2018 3:24pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Took the short at 6845. Just closed it because it is 4 pm here. 290+ ticks.

hmm..why there? vwap was at 6830...0.5sd was at 6850

Quoting hilmy83
{quote} hmm..why there? vwap was at 6830...0.5sd was at 6850
nevermind...prior poc..i got ya..
  • #9,057
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:34pm Nov 14, 2018 3:34pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} hmm..why there? vwap was at 6830...0.5sd was at 6850 {quote} nevermind...prior poc..i got ya..
Multiple time frames were also showing potential reversal. 1,000 tick, 1 min and 5 min moving averages showed price was lining up to reverse. Took the entry based on a rejection candlestick pattern that I like.
  • #9,058
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:55pm Nov 14, 2018 3:55pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Certain things in life that shouldn't be seen. Circus bears on mini bikes and magnumfreaks on video. Jus' sayin' LOL! For me, trading is about 1 thing. Find the direction. NQ is a pure momentum trade in my opinion. If the trend is up look for a way to go long. If it is down look for a way to go short. I use moving averages to determine that direction for that time frame only. I know that sounds simple but it really is that simple. I am not talking about moving average crosses but let the moving averages show you the trend for whatever time...
i appreciate the post, but putting up chart with cute little arrows after the fact is just so old school. we need to encourage videos and livestream so that we can learn more about how everyone execute and see the market. I think people can agree seeing harold's videos vs just reading his posts about how to trade is so much different. you actually see the minor details that posts don't capture.

i guess what i'm saying is, these posts annoy me. not so much because of the content, but because it's after the fact that we don't see the action in the middle.

i say this to everybody here, if you have trading strategies to share, new insights to explore, make a video. let us be different then the rest of the shit threads on this forum. i think this thread has a lot of potential to set this trend thanks to harold with his videos (that inspire me to post mine)..

just sayin ..no offense old man..
  • #9,059
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:03pm Nov 14, 2018 4:03pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i appreciate the post, but putting up chart with cute little arrows after the fact is just so old school. we need to encourage videos and livestream so that we can learn more about how everyone execute and see the market. I think people can agree seeing harold's videos vs just reading his posts about how to trade is so much different. you actually see the minor details that posts don't capture. i guess what i'm saying is, these posts annoy me. not so much because of the content, but because it's after the fact that we don't see the action...
Unless I record for 24 hours how could I not post after. With that said the video I did the other day pointed out those charts I posted today so BAM lol
  • #9,060
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:15pm Nov 14, 2018 4:15pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} Unless I record for 24 hours how could I not post after. With that said the video I did the other day pointed out those charts I posted today so BAM lol
I think i want to try using the ispring cam for Asian session tonite. I actually have a small tweak I made to my strategy with regards vwap bands. A filter actually to keep away from trading against strong thrust like the 9am bar
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