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Pro traders who do not use SL, What about Black Swans?

  • #141
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:09pm Nov 4, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} hi mate when you have a seven fig account compared to a $500 or $1000 account people with a $500 account get picked off by the broker when you have a stoploss , i am not saying dont use one for small accounts but it does give the advantage to your brokers lunch money , new people should note how many times a stoploss gets hit
Hello Aussi

Well done on your 7 fig account.
Out of interest, how do you limit your risk of your broker going bust?
What about the personal liability risk ( on -ve balance? )
Are you not concerned?

Btw, I'm not picking on you, I'm just curious.

Cheers
Have a nice day
  • #142
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:11pm Nov 4, 2018 1:11pm
Quoting spotrate
Okay Redeflect but you have to backup your claim for anyone to take you seriously. Please show any profitable TE where a stoploss is used and you'll make a believer out of me. And I don't mean a stoploss that is 1000 pips away, I mean a stoploss that gets hit from time to time.
He might use it but was way too far that he received a margin call before being hit!! This means he is protecting his trade not his account...Think about it
  • #143
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:14pm Nov 4, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting billv
{quote} Hello Aussi Well done on your 7 fig account. Out of interest, how do you limit your risk of your broker going bust? What about the personal liability risk ( on -ve balance? ) Are you not concerned? Btw, I'm not picking on you, I'm just curious. Cheers
Aussi did not claim he had 7 figure account?!
  • #144
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:25pm Nov 4, 2018 1:25pm
I was working out the back test of my strategy on the flash crashes and black swan events in history and found out that there was no trade triggered ahead of such an

event. A sigh of relief for me and yes I am working without SL as most of the people were suggesting to take out what we earn now and then. This way we can protect

our capital and only risk what has been invested with the broker.
Markets are Irrational
  • #145
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:35pm Nov 4, 2018 1:35pm
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Aussi did not claim he had 7 figure account?!
I figured that he did have a large account from his other posts but let's see what he says, maybe I'm wrong
Have a nice day
  • #146
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:39pm Nov 4, 2018 1:39pm
Quoting ArslanHyder
I was working out the back test of my strategy on the flash crashes and black swan events in history and found out that there was no trade triggered ahead of such an event. A sigh of relief for me and yes I am working without SL as most of the people were suggesting to take out what we earn now and then. This way we can protect our capital and only risk what has been invested with the broker.
as professional trader with big bank accounts with bigger prime brokers you dont have this negative capital balance protection. when you are very small in balance all is extrem easy in trading, at least for the smart persons.
later, the real challenge begins,... and all is different.... its really a different trading and business....

and that you was not in tade when a black swan happened, its pure luck and not your system.... only when you have some black swarn detection inside (so you stoped trading inside the direction of this fast spike move), then its because of your system and not pure luck. dont trust a backtest and luck by such events... when not programmed in at least some detection for stopping at this points....even then, some points cant detected, like pure one moment news what happens....
  • #147
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:40pm Nov 4, 2018 1:40pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} as professional trader with big bank accounts with bigger prime brokers you dont have this negative capital balance protection. when you are very small in balance all is extrem easy in trading, at least for the smart persons. later, the real challenge begins,... and all is different.... its really a different trading and business....
Agreed.
Markets are Irrational
  • #148
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:08pm Nov 4, 2018 2:08pm
I open every position with a heart-attack stop 200 pips away from now. I never got hit, but it might. That would be painful, but not desastrous. Only thing that could kill me is a black swan/flash crash type event. And keep in mind: The longer you stay in the markets, the more likely you will get hit
  • #149
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:15pm Nov 4, 2018 2:15pm
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Amazingly How could be Hypocrite Where was your SL? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=725633
What's hypocritical about this?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #150
  • Nov 5, 2018 2:46am Nov 5, 2018 2:46am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} What's hypocritical about this?
Glad to see you are active again...
  • #151
  • Nov 5, 2018 6:08pm Nov 5, 2018 6:08pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Glad to see you are active again...
Somewhat. Still sitting on my hands most of the time. How's your time away been?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #152
  • Nov 5, 2018 10:43pm Nov 5, 2018 10:43pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am not a pro trader. I usually do not use stops. I have been through a few black swans. Stops do not protect you against this. If there are no orders at your price, you will get filled at the next available price. {quote} Every trader, pro or otherwise, is a gambler. Risk analysis on spreadsheets is one thing, in real life, it is something quite different.
would you agree that when you gamble you rely just on luck, or mostly on luck ?

I backtest first so I don't rely just on luck.


Read here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11134966


Now people don't like to deal with uncertain so they prefer to ignore statistical evidence, which does not guarantee anything ok), but it's all we have!

That's why pro trader focus on RM.
  • #153
  • Nov 5, 2018 10:51pm Nov 5, 2018 10:51pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} would you agree that when you gamble you rely just on luck, or mostly on luck ? I backtest first so I don't rely just on luck. Read here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11134966 Now people don't like to deal with uncertain so they prefer to ignore statistical evidence (which does not guarantee anything ok), and rely on something else... mostly superstitions, so that they feel invincible lol
No. Gambling implies betting. Taking a risk. It has nothing to do with 'luck' or 'mostly luck'. You can count cards or get very good at rolling/bouncing dice and improve your odds but luck is always a significant factor whether or not you think it's in your favor.

Also, Jmn5611 is a wise trader. I don't think going quant on him is going to make an impression.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #154
  • Nov 5, 2018 11:08pm Nov 5, 2018 11:08pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} No. Gambling implies betting. Taking a risk. It has nothing to do with 'luck' or 'mostly luck'. You can count cards or get very good at rolling/bouncing dice and improve your odds but luck is always a significant factor whether or not you think it's in your favor. Also, Jmn5611 is a wise trader. I don't think going quant on him is going to make an impression.
gambling is taking risk. risk is exposure to loss in order to make gain under uncertain or unpredictable conditions relying on a chance. luck is a gain through chance. therefore, risk relies on a chance or luck, hence gambling is also related to luck.
As Above, So Below
  • #155
  • Nov 5, 2018 11:16pm Nov 5, 2018 11:16pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} gambling is taking risk. risk is exposure to loss in order to make gain under uncertain or unpredictable conditions relying on a chance. luck is a gain through chance. therefore, risk relies on a chance or luck, hence gambling is also related to luck.
Luck is also a loss through chance. I'm not disagreeing that gambling is related to luck. I'm disagreeing with his thesis on market structure.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #156
  • Nov 5, 2018 11:24pm Nov 5, 2018 11:24pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Luck is also a loss through chance. I'm not disagreeing that gambling is related to luck. I'm disagreeing with his thesis on market structure.
i understand. since markets mostly deal with uncertain conditions, trading also can be considered as a type of gambling. traders do not want to be associated with gamblers, therefore most of them fiercely reject this simple and unwanted truth.
As Above, So Below
  • #157
  • Nov 5, 2018 11:25pm Nov 5, 2018 11:25pm
Quoting billv
{quote} Hello Aussi Well done on your 7 fig account. Out of interest, how do you limit your risk of your broker going bust? What about the personal liability risk ( on -ve balance? ) Are you not concerned? Btw, I'm not picking on you, I'm just curious. Cheers

sorry mate i only go with asic brokers they have to separate the money >>>>> and big gun
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #158
  • Nov 5, 2018 11:27pm Nov 5, 2018 11:27pm
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Aussi did not claim he had 7 figure account?!
i do
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #159
  • Edited Nov 6, 2018 1:11am Nov 5, 2018 11:37pm | Edited Nov 6, 2018 1:11am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i understand. since markets mostly deal with uncertain conditions, trading also can be considered as a type of gambling. traders do not want to be associated with gamblers, therefore most of them fiercely reject this simple and unwanted truth.
Then ALL businesses are like gambling, of course there is something always something that we define as" luck" but it definitely doesn't play the biggest role in the long term.
  • #160
  • Nov 6, 2018 12:49am Nov 6, 2018 12:49am
ive only got a modest account, yet i largely do not use a SL anymore... i got sick and tired of the SL getting hit before price turning in my favour! Soooo many times i get the direction correct but my timing is early. now i dont use SL, my problem has gone away and im making more money not less by not using one. If i start to get worried with a trade going bad - i hedge, average down, or let the +ve swaps do their work instead. Provided your MM has not left you way over extended, you should always still have plenty of margin to carry on.
Also, the pairs in question play a big part. CHF especially, SNB taught everyone a lesson - part of me believes they are sick and tired of speculation in their currency which has gotten to the point where the value of the franc was detrimental to their economy and efficacy of their monetary policy... so BOOM- leaving that doubt forever more in the minds of those considering going long on CHF... i wont do long CHF without a SL better still i wouldnt go long on CHF period - we have yen for that instead.

Other pairs are pretty safe - take any major - ill happily trade those all day without a SL and a bunch of other crosses.

Exotics are another big risk, and i wont trade those without an albeit rather wide SL either...
Yes maybe one day i cop a hit in a black swan. I guess that will be the day I MC my account. It would be annoying, but i dont risk my house or anything i cant afford to loose on FX trading... If you are taking those kinds of risks - then i guess you should probably use a SL and accept the fact its going to get hit plenty of times
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