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Pro traders who do not use SL, What about Black Swans?

  • #121
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:13am Nov 4, 2018 8:13am
Quoting MaxenshteinD
Some pro traders use a negative risk reward. Example: Stop Loss - 90 pips , Take Profit - 30 pips. How they deal with black swans I`m interested myself. I guess the high win hitrate simply pays of for once in a while loses.
See!! some very knowledgeable traders start to speak! I agree, I guess its their secret sauce that will never share!
  • #122
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:13am Nov 4, 2018 8:13am
Quoting Ray9
{quote} I am not sure if the question could be any more clearer? But, when you claim Hedging, calculating risk, ....This is "managing your trade" and any trader is doing it. However, Catastrophic event, or a sudden unexpected release on Brexit while I am not looking at my screen..is my concern and regarding ALL Pro traders part...Sorry, You do not know all Pro traders...because some of them are doing it already for years!!
any risk is possible to manage, your risk is best to manage with options or kind like this.
i dont have to know any pro trader, i only know that there is no pro trader (not only 1) who dont manage the risk in trading, because trading is managing the risk as first goal, impossible with no SL in pure gambling style. impossible different. other way its gambler or no pro.... some can call themself a pro, but makes them a pro, really?
  • #123
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:16am Nov 4, 2018 8:16am
Quoting CrocodileRex
The easiest way to counter black swan is to put in 10% of your whole capital inside your broker's and trade the maximum leverage from it. This way, when you do encounter one black swan event, your account will go margin called. Even if you owe your broker the negative balance, i dont think they will chase you for the amount owed because:- 1) you can blame the broker for not honoring your stoploss, you must always set a maximum stoploss for your account, say 200 pips while your tp and sl is only 10 pips but the black swan slipped you 1k pips. 2)...
Very wise!!
I already added it to my to do list
  • #124
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:18am Nov 4, 2018 8:18am
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Absolutely. A defining characteristic of a black swan event is a sudden huge move with no liquidity. Your broker will trade at the first available dealing price on your stop which could be a long way away from the level you set. This is slippage at its extreme worst. There are several reasons why professional traders, even with their superior skill, still typically risk only tiny amounts of their avaliable account on any given trade, and this is one of them: you have to expect and be able to absorb the worst the market can throw at you and...
Very wise words as well!
  • #125
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:50am Nov 4, 2018 8:50am
can anyone suggest low volatile forex pair
  • #126
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:01am Nov 4, 2018 9:01am
Quoting DaRealTrader
{quote} 1) EURCHF - people that were long EURCHF or short EURCHF downside volatility before the peg blow-up are all out of the market, and that is well deserved unfortunately. That trade not only made very little sense at the time from a macro perspective but it also had the most horrendous risk:reward profile - anyone with experience and market structure understanding would have avoided it. On top of that, no SL would have saved you as nothing has traded in the market through most of that drop as liquidity evaporated. 2) Sometimes you have no choice....
Very Good points!! Thank you
  • #127
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:09am Nov 4, 2018 9:09am
Quoting Bicarus
....they have other instruments on hand to maneuver out of sticky situations if needed.

I agree and welcome your advices...If I am a retail trader who wants to step up the game..regarding 'Other instruments' Where/and what I should search for?
  • #128
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:21am Nov 4, 2018 9:21am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am not a pro trader. I usually do not use stops. I have been through a few black swans. Stops do not protect you against this. If there are no orders at your price, you will get filled at the next available price. {quote} Every trader, pro or otherwise, is a gambler. Risk analysis on spreadsheets is one thing, in real life, it is something quite different.
Here we Go! So what do you do to protect your hard earned gains?
For instance Since by increasing your equity you start to take a bigger lot sizes (reasonable increment) so the previous 10000 Pips in gains for previous months were wiped out by just today's Swan 1000 pip bigger lot size position.
  • #129
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:30am Nov 4, 2018 9:30am
What I would do is instead of being afraid or avoiding such moves, embrace such moves and develop a strategy that would either ignore or benefit from it. It's just the nature of currency markets so embracing it is the only way to go. If such a thing happens, my automated strategy would either ignore it or get 10 pips out of it.
  • #130
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:45am Nov 4, 2018 9:45am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} hi mate when you have a seven fig account compared to a $500 or $1000 account people with a $500 account get picked off by the broker when you have a stoploss , i am not saying dont use one for small accounts but it does give the advantage to your brokers lunch money , new people should note how many times a stoploss gets hit
Thanks Aussi,
So Till I build up my 7 figure account ..what is your recommendations?
  • #131
  • Nov 4, 2018 9:57am Nov 4, 2018 9:57am
Quoting Ray9
{quote} I agree and welcome your advices...If I am a retail trader who wants to step up the game..regarding 'Other instruments' Where/and what I should search for?
spot fx is only a sole instrument. most retail may/can hedge a spot with a spot ie;gold/chf/jpy.

whilst the generic rule of instituitional trading is to trade futures,manage with spot, hedge with options.
  • #132
  • Edited 10:13am Nov 4, 2018 10:03am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote}.....not that you have zero SL, stupid goal....
Instead of judging other traders (that may be doing way better than your trading btw) try to be flexibly smart enough to absorb other opinions/ ways of trades. I and Others respecting your opinion so We expecting the same...

This Thread is not really to show who is 100% right and who is wrong...If you are happy and satisfied with your style, concepts, rules of trading I understand it...You may be making thousands in profits...but you will never know that if other side may make tens of thousands!

Chill out and we all learn
  • #133
  • Nov 4, 2018 10:07am Nov 4, 2018 10:07am
Quoting Bicarus
{quote} spot fx is only a sole instrument. most retail may/can hedge a spot with a spot ie;gold/chf/jpy. whilst the generic rule of instituitional trading is to trade futures,manage with spot, hedge with options.
I appreciate it! last question, this hedging will be in how long in average ? because it sounds we speak about weeks or months holding positions? Am I right?
  • #134
  • Nov 4, 2018 10:17am Nov 4, 2018 10:17am
[quote=tashkent;11641115] if market goes against you a zillion pips, you will end up losing the sub account, not the whole capital but then not sure if you will ever need money because i highly doubt that civilization would still exist after such event.[/quote
  • #135
  • Nov 4, 2018 10:50am Nov 4, 2018 10:50am
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Here we Go! So what do you do to protect your hard earned gains? For instance Since by increasing your equity you start to take a bigger lot sizes (reasonable increment) so the previous 10000 Pips in gains for previous months were wiped out by just today's Swan 1000 pip bigger lot size position.
The RBS and the BOJ have taught me to only risk a portion of my hard earned gains, and to spread risk out among the major economies of the world.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #136
  • Nov 4, 2018 11:41am Nov 4, 2018 11:41am
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Instead of judging other traders (that may be doing way better than your trading btw) try to be flexibly smart enough to absorb other opinions/ ways of trades. I and Others respecting your opinion so We expecting the same... This Thread is not really to show who is 100% right and who is wrong...If you are happy and satisfied with your style, concepts, rules of trading I understand it...You may be making thousands in profits...but you will never know that if other side may make tens of thousands! Chill out and we all learn

you would laugh how extrem easy trading is and how many ways are possible, but some basic rules are always there. you can learn the basics and speak this way. first learn the bascis, then you know why i tell you about such basicsrules and you see they are correct, and always true.

chill out and learning is fine, but at the moment it looks like you only chill and dont learn, and so wonder there are many ways, but you cant see that many ways only exist on the way to loss on the end.... my opinion if you want (you dont have to trust me, but at least learn first basics and trust then yourself!, not before), but dont change anything ,because its objective rules what we speak here about.... this is total basics beginner easy topic, so i dont know why you cant see at least this easy part. cant say more.

there are total easy basic objective question, like yours, and difficult subjetive, when you dont know the difference, you really need to learn the basics and you get your answer so much more easy! and yes, this here is total easy basic and objective question! so many of your points are wrong, point.
  • #137
  • Nov 4, 2018 12:11pm Nov 4, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting Redeflect
A simple explanation as to why someone would trade without a stoploss; they are stupid. If a country is on fire and you own that currency then it doesn't matter what your risk projections are and it doesn't matter now or in a month if you own that currency. Because the coup already took place and the people are dead. Now... As to whether that's something you plan on dealing with mentally, with your platform, or by simply hedging your risk because you live in or operate in that country... Figure it out. This is real life gentlemen.
Amazingly How could be Hypocrite Where was your SL?

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=725633
  • #138
  • Nov 4, 2018 12:20pm Nov 4, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} you would laugh how extrem easy trading is and how many ways are possible, but some basic rules are always there. you can learn the basics and speak this way. first learn the bascis, then you know why i tell you about such basicsrules and you see they are correct, and always true. chill out and learning is fine, but at the moment it looks like you only chill and dont learn, and so wonder there are many ways, but you cant see that many ways only exist on the way to loss on the end.... my opinion if you want (you dont have to trust me, but...
Bro, you keep editing your reply Gotta wait 24 Hrs to be finally posted then I can answer you!

But till that time..You are right! I need to learn but who does not need to...Kisses
  • #139
  • Nov 4, 2018 12:30pm Nov 4, 2018 12:30pm
Quoting Ray9
{quote} Bro, you keep editing your reply Gotta wait 24 Hrs to be finally posted then I can answer you! But till that time..You are right! I need to learn but who does not need to...Kisses
of course, i write very fast, and edit some spelling mistakes when to hard, or when adding some textes, so wait some minutes...or read later.
in forex its only somethings to learn, then you dont need to learn for years, because it dont chnage anything when some bascis rules not change in fundamental (of course depends on strategy, most use only statistical advantages, so you need to take a look any week if something changed...) - sound diffierent to what many tell, but many dont know really what is trading for a living for decades... however... is not that difficult to trade when you can trust experienced traders and dont have to do their mistakes for your own (you can save 5 years at least and much much money) and when you learn basics before you start trading... this will be enough , as long not many do this ... when many do this, the game changes and also the entry and exits will change... but there are not enough smart people with basic character in the world, so this will not happen so fast...

its funny that many think you can learn more and more, there are really times ( so many did bad trading by learning more and more.... in reality even most .. we dont speak about all the basics here and creating own winning systems... ) , when learning more then you know is extrem negative, because you dont trade when you learn, you dont concentrate on your system, you compare,... you dont be a master of what you do and know, when you find your way, stay to it and win by it...... rules dont change so much (we speak about a winnign sytem, not making loss or luck gabling without SL or martingale systems or other beginner style trading....)
  • #140
  • Nov 4, 2018 12:52pm Nov 4, 2018 12:52pm
Okay Redeflect but you have to backup your claim for anyone to take you seriously. Please show any profitable TE where a stoploss is used and you'll make a believer out of me. And I don't mean a stoploss that is 1000 pips away, I mean a stoploss that gets hit from time to time.
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