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Attachments: Price reaction to major S/R /TLs and entering on LTFs
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Price reaction to major S/R /TLs and entering on LTFs

  • #21
  • Oct 17, 2018 5:00pm Oct 17, 2018 5:00pm
AUD JPY

Thought of going long based on the the touch of the H4 TL and the H4 Hammer.

Will watch the trade closely.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYDaily.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH4.png Size: 16 KB
  • #22
  • Oct 17, 2018 9:50pm Oct 17, 2018 9:50pm
Good thread, good anlysis! Simple and effective!
  • #23
  • Oct 17, 2018 10:19pm Oct 17, 2018 10:19pm
Quoting mtharwat
“I hold no responsibility for whatever analysis presented in this thread. It is not a thread to give signals but to engage like minded traders who prefer simplicity in trading to interact and share their views and technical analysis.” I am here to teach beginners who are struggling with Technical Analysis and to learn from more advanced traders than me. I have no ego. I believe in the power of sharing and the goodness it brings within. This thread will have so many charts for MTFs as detailed as possible. Just say hello and share with us. Peace...
Fast forward and to the point are you planning to monetise your trading analysis and teach or you are here to discuss and learn?

Hehe...
  • #24
  • Oct 18, 2018 12:54am Oct 18, 2018 12:54am
Quoting giraffze
Good thread, good anlysis! Simple and effective!
Hello Giraffze

Thank you very much for your words.
  • #25
  • Edited 2:40am Oct 18, 2018 2:30am | Edited 2:40am
NZDCHF

The whole picture for me depends on whether on the weekly chart, did we find support? (see the arrow below support) or should price go much deeper below this level to call it a true support?

So the question here is whether we bounced of a support or price is just retracing up, nothing the more nothing the less. I don't know. The only observation is that on daily, price looks it is reversing.

Attached charts of H4/H1 which shows a trend line holding and a previous Daily/H4 Support/Resistance level.

What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFWeekly.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFDaily.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFH4.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFH1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #26
  • Oct 18, 2018 2:42am Oct 18, 2018 2:42am
Quoting mtharwat
NZDCHF The whole picture for me depends on whether on the weekly chart, we found support (see the arrow below support) or should price go much deeper below this level? So the question here is whether we bounced of a support or price is just retracing up, nothing the more nothing the less. I don't know. The only observation is that on daily, price looks it is reversing. Attached charts of H4/H1 which shows a trend line holding and a previous Daily/H4 Support/Resistance level. What do you think? {image} {image} {image} {image}
You posted you already made 420 pips on 1 lot during the last 5 days so based on your stupendous result you should teach us how you made those pips instead of asking us who can hardly make half of what you made. Pls share your secrets like you said you would. Hehe

Cheers
  • #27
  • Edited 3:54am Oct 18, 2018 3:17am | Edited 3:54am
Pls share your secrets like you said you would. Hehe Cheers[/quote]


Please refer to the firs post (it is lengthy and should be read word by word).

This is a very simple (and very basic) technique of approaching the market. I have never said I am hiding a secret that I am going to share. There are no secrets!!!. It is "price reacting to an important level: S/R/TL".

It is your money management and how you divide the total amount your are willing to risk to smaller ones. You try to let one or two ride the trend. In this approach of trading, we do not predict how far price will go. There are other schools of TA (which are very legitimate and offer great help) in trying to predict how far price will go. But this is not what I am discussing in this thread. The reason for is this is for the sake of "Speciality" and "Practsing" one little thing, nothing the more, nothing the less.


After you read the first thread (Word by Word) as I insist , then read the following paragraph.

"This technique of trading (which is not new by any means) relies on Identifying or Recognising key S/R/TLs on HTF and expecting bounces. It is a very subjective business". It requires from the trader a significant amount of practising, watching charts, and visually backtesting. Such key levels will differ from one analyst to another.
Those levels are the thing that I invest most of my time in identifying and recognising.

Pls: Read the first post of this thread word by word.

Thanks for posting.
  • #28
  • Edited Oct 19, 2018 12:12am Oct 18, 2018 4:09am | Edited Oct 19, 2018 12:12am
A follow up to NZD CHF Post #25

I was a bit hesitant but I did like what I just saw on H1 chart. a good bullish H1 candle bouncing of the trend line. So I entered and my stop loss is not that big.

Will watch closely.


Update: Stop loss hit (about -26 pips).
stop loss should have been placed few pips below the level I chose. Price went up again after hitting it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFH1.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFH4.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Stop Loss.png Size: 21 KB
  • #29
  • Oct 18, 2018 7:03am Oct 18, 2018 7:03am
Ok:I thought of posting a nice example on NZDUSD (I did not take this trade)

How you interpret the PA is a subjective thing as you all know. You could go to daily/weekly and draw supply/demand zones or channels or patterns, etc...

Within this channel, the trader can add his/her support/resistance, minor trend lines, smaller pattern formations, etc..

After that you can go to LTFs and find any opportunity based on the bigger picture.

In NZD/USD, I found on the daily a downward channel. Price is retracing up to "maybe " test the upper boundary of the channel.

On H4, we have a nice upward trend line.

On H1,M30,M15, one can draw a downward trendline and trade the breakout. (Combining intraday with HTF)

Very simple stuff.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM15.png Size: 19 KB
  • #30
  • Oct 18, 2018 11:09am Oct 18, 2018 11:09am
Follow up to CHF JPT Post #7

Price hit my stop loss (-70 pips each)

Tomorrow is important bank news for JPY. Will wait and see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYH1.png Size: 19 KB
  • #31
  • Edited 9:54am Oct 19, 2018 12:06am | Edited 9:54am
Follow up to USDJPY Post #15

Well, Price went up around 70 pips (few pips below my first target). I moved stop loss to few pips above breakeven.
It retraced back and hit my stop loss.
No loss in the trade.

Edit: I re-analyzed USdJPY chart trying to figure out why price has not moved more than the 70 pips after this H4/H1 range breakout and the prior break of a trend line with divergence. Then I realised that on the weekly chart, price has just bounced off an important resistance level.
On daily, it did bounce when it met the trend line and bounced for 70 pips. But the range is getting narrower and narrower with the upward trend line.
I should have secured 50 pips at least for first target.

Attached a weekly chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.png Size: 20 KB
  • #32
  • Edited 8:18am Oct 22, 2018 4:43am | Edited 8:18am
NZD CAD

Well, Initially price bounced off a weekly support. Last two weekly candles are very bullish. One can argue that price is testing a previous S/R and may retrace bit.

On dail , I spotted a bearish trend line and price is just bouncing of it. There is also a big bullish V patterns on Daily/H4.

Although of this decided to short and I have set up targets that are quite far and I do not think I will rigidly hold to them. The two targets will be trailed for sure. I am ok with the stop loss if it gets hit.

It is all about accepting how much I will be risking.

So shorting this pair on M15 and carefully watching the trade considering the overall bullishness on HTF


Edit: Market is incredibly slow and barely moving. Might be because of US news tomorrow. Any way, I closed the position for a fraction of profit.
attached closed position
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADDaily.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADH4.png Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADM15.png Size: 19 KB
  • #33
  • Oct 28, 2018 7:19pm Oct 28, 2018 7:19pm
CAD JPY

We bounced around 60 pips of a daily trend Line.
I entered on H1 for what appeared to me as a breakout and a retest.

My stop loss is below the touch of the daily trend line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYDaily.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH1.png Size: 19 KB
  • #34
  • Edited Oct 29, 2018 2:42am Oct 28, 2018 8:40pm | Edited Oct 29, 2018 2:42am
XAU AUD

May be yes/may be no

Edit: The answer is No.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUAUDH4.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUAUDM15.png Size: 15 KB
  • #35
  • Oct 29, 2018 2:43am Oct 29, 2018 2:43am
Eur CHF

H4 Trend Line.

Counter the overall daily trend

M15 Diamond pattern

Entered long
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFH4.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFH1.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFM15.png Size: 20 KB
  • #36
  • Oct 29, 2018 5:54am Oct 29, 2018 5:54am
Previous trades are going well.
Now EURUD is bit confusing.

Euro is strengthening as typing and so is AUD.

With EUR/AUD chart, we are bouncing from a weekly Resistance. On Daily and H4, we have a big diamond pattern.

Price may want to test the daily upward trend line?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH4.png Size: 19 KB
  • #37
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:36am Oct 30, 2018 8:36am
Quoting mtharwat
CAD JPY We bounced around 60 pips of a daily trend Line. I entered on H1 for what appeared to me as a breakout and a retest. My stop loss is below the touch of the daily trend line. {image} {image} {image}
There are Bank of Canada news within couple of hours so I closed two lots at around 50 pips in profit each. I moved stop loss to break even for the last lot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4.png Size: 19 KB
  • #38
  • Oct 31, 2018 1:38am Oct 31, 2018 1:38am
Quoting mtharwat
Eur CHF H4 Trend Line. Counter the overall daily trend M15 Diamond pattern Entered long {image} {image} {image}

I closed the two lots of EURCHF at about 25 pips each. I do not like the overall strength of Euro against other pairs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFH4.png Size: 25 KB
  • #39
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:29am Oct 31, 2018 8:29am
Watching AUD/CHF. I need a lot more to see with PA until the weekend unless something surprisingly happen.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHFDaily.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHFH4.png Size: 17 KB
  • #40
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:49am Oct 31, 2018 8:49am
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} There are Bank of Canada news within couple of hours so I closed two lots at around 50 pips in profit each. I moved stop loss to break even for the last lot. {image}

The third lot is trailed below an upward H4 Trend Line (not drawn).

With the target, I readjusted it. I measured the current H4 channel and projected it upwards. I put the level at less number of pips just below the gap. If we get a breakout, then it is a good level for the target. If price hits the stop loss, it is still good profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4.png Size: 26 KB
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