EURUSD only

H1 Trading Plan for Next Week

1. As long as H1 candles don't close above 1.1453 my overall bearish bias stays. Therefore I will start to look for sell opportunities once I see clear bull weakness near to or right at that level.
2. However, if I see an H1 candle close above 1.1453, I still would try to look for sell opportunities (short-term) but I mainly would start to look for buy opportunities as soon as I see bears hassling but not succeeding for a new lower low.

My two cents.

Stay Green

15M formed a strong bottom at daily level with a morning star ... we have 4H engulfing at level ... we should see at least 1.15161 ... then it's anyone's guess again.

Hello Ata, If you don't mind, can you tell that what things do you consider for deciding whether or not Bull / Bears are in power ??. I actually watch candlesticks. If candlesticks are small, choppy and spikes making spinning tops and other patterns after long trend or at the major support / resistance levels, means that the bear / bulls are weak.

Agreed.
1430/1435 is a good area for selling

Moty i can assure you that EMA or whatever indicator are useless to take a winning trade.
support and resistance are enough.
You want to trade on TF 30 MN THEN you haveto draw S/R on TF H4 and D1 and only trade on the keys area.
at the moment Key area is 1432. Nothing to do as long as we do not be there.

The simplest way is to check if 36.9 fibonacci level is violated or not. (Speaking for EURUSD) but you can also choose a different fib percentage if you like. The mentality is to stay in the trend (keep your bias) as long as it gets. Let me explain:

1. On the image below let's say price makes a first low deep as Box A. There you measure your fib and we see that swing high A couldn't violate our fib.
2. Once we have a new lower close as deep as Box B we measure the whole distance now and still none of the swing highs to level B can violate our fib. We stay bearish.
3. Then a new lower close happens and we again measure the fib retracement of the whole Box C. No violation at level C and we stay bearish.
4. So on and so forth until at point F we see a candle close above and now I change my bias to bullish. But I don't buy directly. Instead I wait for retests towards previous lows and try to buy somewhere inside or at the blue rectangle.
5. Some people believe once you have a higher high in a downtrend the bias should change or you should close your order or you should be careful. Nope. When price can't even violate fib 36.9 area, how can I expect a trend change even with lots of higher highs below that level? You see? So in trading there is no holy grail. We always must get smarter confirmations than just following a well known rule that all sheeps follow.

I hope it explains to you my simple way of changing (or keeping) bias.

Stay Green

Wish i had someone like you as my school teacher 45years ago!! Hats off!!!to an excellent teacher!! Enjoy yr weekend!!

I cant say anything to ATA. Because of him, now i can trade and with high profit. For 3 week my balance became 600%.
Just say thanks a lot. Thats what i can give

agree .
i am also be waiting for price to return from that area for short

Thanks Ata for detailed explaination, i got too much information from you

Agree. Need little up to big down.
No rush and look for signal first.

Check out last Friday 19th and compare with this Fridays 26th! Closely watching the MACD if the price rises with Divergence again.

Have you tried on real account ?

All this run up a panic buy. Moves like this are short lived 1351 is key level now for bearish continuation of we pick bull for a while after a pull back.
my 2 cents

Hi,
Why am i seeing modelling quality as 25%?

Hello Traders,
I too would like to add something to this question. What I generally look at is this:

1. Structure Analysis

In a downtrend (As you can see on the H1 chart):

1. The Green Horizontal Lines are NSL's (New Structure Lows): Levels where price has broken the previous NSL and produced a new LH AFTER THAT
2. The Red Horizontal Lines are LH's (Lower Highs)

In an uptrend

1. The Green Lines are NSH's (New Structure Highs)
2. The Red Lines are HL's (Higher Lows)

As an example I would like to discuss the downtrend of last week

My rules for a Lower High are, price must have touched the 38.2 fib Ratio drawn from the previous Lower High (in a downtrend) or Higher Low (in an uptrend) to the current Lowest Low or Highest High.

Chart 1

As you can see on this first chart, price produced a NSL and A new LH.
Since the probability lies with the trend and price is producing NSL's, our EXPECTATION remains a NSL.

The following move did not produce a NSL before a smaller correction started, the correction however was one to 38.2 fib.
This means we keep drawing the fib from the previous LH and we can just keep trading the TL breakout system Ata provided us to catch the next downmove.

Chart 2

Price did break the previous NSL, that was The EXPECTATION! So now we wait for the next correction and see if price touches the fib38.2 ratio.
As we can see price failed to retrace to 38.2fib or beyond.
This means we did NOT produce a NSL or a new LH YET.
Again we just keep trading short with the angled TL breakout.

Chart 3

We already know that price has met the expectation(This means a break of the previous NSL)
Now we know we are producing one but not yet where it will be, we would wait until we see a 38.2 fib retracement.
On the last upmove price did touch the 38.2 fib! So now we can assign a NSL to the previous Low.

This does NOT mean our expectation changes!
The expectation REMAINS a NSL! This does not mean however we can not trade Long but in this case I would prefer to:

1. Trade a fail of expectation = high momentum upmove above the previous NSL (what would produce a Higher Low) with a stop loss below the NSL and let price come as close to the NSL as it gets, a high momentum Bull candle would be an entry in this case... still this is more risky imo and I prefer these trades only on a higher TF level and with a previous retrace to at least 61.8Fib (drawn from the previous High or Low - This does not mean the Lower High or Higher Low) with a high momentum on the previous upmove
2. Trade a breakout short below the LWMA line
3. Wait until the previous High (and by this I don't mean the Red horizontal LH, but the previous high!) is broken and start trading long with TL Breakouts, keeping in mind that the expectation remains a NSL until the HL-level is broken.

The LWMA line is just a clue in where the current MOMENTUM lies, and we like to trade with the current momentum. Still I am very careful and manage my trade accordingly because of the structure analysis.
The Trend remains DOWN until the previous LH gets broken OR when price FAILS to meet Expectation (Fails to produce a new NSL), yet I'll still treat the trade as a we are in a correction and wait for a LH to be broken to go all in on a trend.

When the LH of HL breaks however the longer term trend is set.
I like to go all in on a trend even with opening positions and holding them over night without moving my stop loss to breakeven too early. In this case I only lock in pips when I have new breakout and so a new entry.
This way I try to build positions that can add up and ride the longer trend keeping my risk the same every time but my upside potential expanding with every trade I take. This however is question of choice.
Ofcourse all this when we aren't about to hit an important level and the potential R/R > 1/2.

1. Momentum

The next thing I look at is momentum, as you can see on this chart, the first upmove is high in momentum, Bulls are coming in. And we did break the LWMA, I would risk to go long from this upmove only with the TL breakout system because it's that system that keeps us from doing wrong entries against the trend.

The Second upmove is a lot weaker, bulls and bears mixed where price failed to go higher than the LWMA line, we already know we keep shorting because price is under it. Generally it's short sellers taking profit and no buyers coming in at this level.

The Third one is the same, so keep trading the breakouts. If we did draw an angled TL from that price above the LWMA line we would NOT have had a breakout and so did not have a losing trade.

And on the Fourth the Bulls are definitely coming in, price is above the LWMA line. We'll need some more time to make sure the trend is reversing however.
The expecation remains a NSL.
This does not mean I won't risk buying but I'll keep very cautious and prefer to manage my trade differently, like moving to B/E more quickly.

1. Weekly cycles

As you can see, the higher momentum upmoves both happend on a friday, this is something you see a lot imho.
Trends often tend to reverse at the beginning of a new week. Ofcourse this is no fixed rule and not always the case but certainy something to keep in mind.

1. Longer term and Levels

You can apply this structure analysis to a H4 chart for a longer term expectation view. As you can see from this H4 chart price already produced a NSL.
Now, to assign the NSL to the previous Low I look for a retrace to 38.2 fib.
Because of the last H1 high momentum upmove that could be just a first clue we are in a longer term corrective mode, but still in a downtrend!
This does not mean there isn't any possible upside potential however!
I would prefer to only be trading the breakout system BUT with caution. The previous high is not broken yet, pivots ar not shifting up on H1 and there are no higher lows on H1.

Basically I try to build positions using the breakout system between the High and Low levels.
When price gets closer to a level or a weekly pivot point I might decide to be more careful, trade lower risk percentage or wait on the sidelines.

To not do anymore entries but keeping a trail on open positions!

And when thinking about a reversal trade to only risking these ON these levels preferably with a confirmation of High Momentum.

1. London open Prices and pivot points

Ata also did mention the LO prices, so when price break a previous LO price this can also be a heads up, as well as the pivot points, generally when pivots are shifting down you have downtrend and vica versa. As you can see on my charts when the current pivot point is below the LWMA line generally the focus is on selling.

I think it's adding all this together that you can decide when to go long and short but the more important thing is to know when to wait on the sidelines, not rushing in when you see an upmove in a downtrend is very important, that's why I use the structure analysis. For now yes price is above the LWMA line, and I'll adapt with it and try to buy the breakouts but still being careful, there is no trend change set in yet.

And as always it's just the practice and your own routine of working you need to find, and review the trades that went good or bad.

1. Putting it together

So to sum up and trying to answer who is in power, this is what I would say:

1. Expectation remains a break of structure in the direction of the trend
2. The deeper a correction goes and the shorter the time it needs the higher te probability price is to reverse
3. The projection depth can tell us something about the strength of the current trend, when the projection gets deeper the trend is getting stronger and vica versa
4. Looking at higher TF's is important to know on the H1 chart if we are in corrective mode (against the main trend) or on projection mode (with the main trend)
5. Looking at the main levels, this is highs and lows (NSL's, NSH's, LH's and HL's), can keep you out of trades against an important level, between these levels I like to add on postions (and I also look at the pivot points)
6. The Higher the TF level the more important the level!
7. We use the breakout system to have the current momentum in our favor as an entry signal!
8. And a little extra, on placing S/L's, what I find is working best is to set the S/L in the middle below or above the previous daily pivot point , support or resistance (on H1)from where price is now, when price moves in the direction of the trade just trail the stop loss every time a daily pivot point, support or resistance line is broken.
9. The main focus needs to be on probabilities, take only the highest probability trades and don't expect to win every trade. Reduce your risk when you need to or exit trades when they are not working to not lose to much capital.
10. Using the magnetic lines is useful to find possible targets and points of confluence, when this point lines up with a fib ratio, extension, pivot point or previous level it's a good target to have to not rush out of trades and leaving profits on the table!

Trends need time to change but that doesn't mean we can't anticpate early by looking at clues and adding up these clues.

These are just my additions to what I think is a good working system.

Grtz!

Daily long term analysis.yellow arrows is actual entry on daily chart .Based on divergence .now on Monday is great chance to BUY.

For market open...

Amazing effort bro. Thanks a lot for your great input. Highly appreciated and great respect!

Stay Green