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Quad Candle System

  • #2,621
  • Oct 25, 2018 8:15am Oct 25, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Best to reassess the whole setup from the beginning. If the analysis justifies another short setup then a short setup can be made. I'm only monitoring this symbol for the time being. Losses are part of the business of trading longer term, or indeed trading in general but all well within risk tolerance so not even an issue. Although taking a small loss this late in the month may well lead to a negative monthly return for the month of October. Making a recovery is somewhat of a small challenge in itself, afterall another loss and I could be...

Thank you for the input. I will wait one more day before deciding if I should enter or not. If I place the order I'll provide the full analysis in here.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,622
  • Oct 26, 2018 6:57am Oct 26, 2018 6:57am
XAU-EUR shorting idea postponed, I think indefinitely. The reasons for mentioning the short idea were:

1) on D1 I had hoped of a bearish evening star
2) the price was at 5/8 after recalculation and this could be interpreted as a top of the 3/8-5/8 range
3) it was the 61.8 retracements of the previous daily, respectively weekly swing.

I will take a look at the pair but that's it, anyway it's Friday and according to the rules today we don't trade, we think how to spend the weekend

Have a great weekend!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURWeekly.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURDaily.png Size: 76 KB
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,623
  • Oct 26, 2018 6:32pm Oct 26, 2018 6:32pm
Quoting pipsandkfc
XAU-EUR shorting idea postponed, I think indefinitely. The reasons for mentioning the short idea were: 1) on D1 I had hoped of a bearish evening star 2) the price was at 5/8 after recalculation and this could be interpreted as a top of the 3/8-5/8 range 3) it was the 61.8 retracements of the previous daily, respectively weekly swing. I will take a look at the pair but that's it, anyway it's Friday and according to the rules today we don't trade, we think how to spend the weekend Have a great weekend! {image} {image}
Great idea to place the setup on hold as you have especially being the end of the week.

In general I recommend no entries on the last trading day of the week however there are some exceptions but they need to be at low relative risk applying a relatively large stop (on D1 that is the case but on other lower TF's the situation may be different) such that on average an unfavorable weekend gap will not knock your entry out of the market.

As an example, one might check Friday Close price to Monday Open price over multiple previous bars and average the gaps in pips (or points).

W1 (prev) Close - W1 (current) Open as an absolute value since we do not care about +/- signs here only the actual range.

Analyze more than just a simple average pip range by considering the range of weekend gap values especially the frequency of the 'higher' W1 gaps such as how many 'larger' gaps occurred in the previous X*W1 bars.

A simple statistical approach can be applied here using SD's, VAR etc but not really necessary.
Easy enough to manually check the weekend gaps of say the previous 20 W1 bars.

Ranges are very important and they can provide many interesting clues about the market !

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,624
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:18pm Oct 26, 2018 9:18pm
Thank you for the input Masterrmind. Yes, I followed the rule you stated in the thread not to open trades during Fridays. There is no need to chase trades, there will surely be a few opportunities each month and that's enough.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,625
  • Oct 28, 2018 12:51pm Oct 28, 2018 12:51pm
After the price action on the XAUEUR chart I would open the following trade: SELL @ Market : 1081.83 with stop loss: 1096.35 and take profit at: 1065.00
Another trade I would place would be the AUDUSD BUY @ Market: 0.7090 with stop loss at 0.6980 and take profit at: 0.7190

Sorry for not being able to post the full analysis now and upload charts, due to some PC problems I'll do my best to add it tomorrow. I won't even add it to my demo account as now the market is closed and can't wait a few more hours awake.

Have a good trading week ahead!
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,626
  • Oct 28, 2018 7:40pm Oct 28, 2018 7:40pm
Quoting pipsandkfc
After the price action on the XAUEUR chart I would open the following trade: SELL @ Market : 1081.83 with stop loss: 1096.35 and take profit at: 1065.00 Another trade I would place would be the AUDUSD BUY @ Market: 0.7090 with stop loss at 0.6980 and take profit at: 0.7190 Sorry for not being able to post the full analysis now and upload charts, due to some PC problems I'll do my best to add it tomorrow. I won't even add it to my demo account as now the market is closed and can't wait a few more hours awake. Have a good trading week ahead!
Lets see how those trade setups play out.

If you can post charts later that would be great.

ps. I'm certainly looking towards a productive week but lets wait and see how this turns out.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,627
  • Oct 28, 2018 8:47pm Oct 28, 2018 8:47pm
Quoting Masterrmind
GBPJPY [M15; Short term long setup] {image} Pending orders only applied meaning I will be looking for price to come my way otherwise no entries. MML Grid entries all as current Buy Stops are now in place. If price keeps running down the chart then so be it, no issue with this. If price decides to reverse and turn up as it very often does on the GJ pair then I stand to make a nice gain over this short term setup noting that it is only over 3 Octives on a D1 Chart. Question is how will this setup turn out and will I recover the current DD on the account...
GJ [Short term setup; Update]

Price has continued to move down the chart and no pending Buy Stops have been triggered.

An additional Buy Stop was placed at the 144 handle but missed being triggered due to bearish PA.

So where does the current setup stand in the context of chart structure ?

GJ [D1 Chart]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 42 KB

GJ [M15 Chart]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 39 KB

Clearly the M15 setup now looks out of sync with current chart structure based on a purely technical outlook.
Price is well under the MML Grid with some movement required to the upside to trigger the setup.

How might a setup be modified ?
Should the current setup be modified with pending orders moved lower in an attempt to capture any upward trajectory of price action ?

What I'm faced with in this GJ setup is that I have only 3 days to try and reduce the current months loss (~1.9%) so what I'm considering is simply an MML Grid setup in short mode so that a reasonable gain can be made over say 200-300 pips move in the market.

Therefore, I need to consider whether or not GJ setup is likely to unfold the way I expect (or hope) and make a nice upward move.

Further confluence is required otherwise we are only guessing at best.

If the GJ analysis suggests a non favorable outlook on the long side then ofcourse a short side setup could be planned but it must be in confluence with the MML Grid.

I aways refer back to the D1 [64/0/0] MML Grid as my reference guide when it comes to over-riding confluence !

If not then certainly other pairs should then be analyzed.

A fundamental analysis of the GJ pair will be presented in part in an upcoming post.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,628
  • Oct 28, 2018 11:10pm Oct 28, 2018 11:10pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} GJ [Short term setup; Update] Price has continued to move down the chart and no pending Buy Stops have been triggered. An additional Buy Stop was placed at the 144 handle but missed being triggered due to bearish PA. So where does the current setup stand in the context of chart structure ? GJ [D1 Chart] {image} GJ [M15 Chart] {image} Clearly the M15 setup now looks out of sync with current chart structure based on a purely technical outlook. Price is well under the MML Grid with some movement required to the upside to trigger the setup....
Basic Fundamental Outlook for the GJ pair.

Economic data for GBP and JPY (includes USD and EUR)

Previous Week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Current Week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Next Week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Political data

GBP currency:
1. Brexit continues to play havoc with the longer term appreciation of the currency;
2. UK PM Mays own party members doubt her ability to cement in a workable brexit deal;
3. Leadership challenge may be on the cards due to poor party support for current PM May;
4. Keep a lookout for Eurozone confidence measures.

JPY currency:
1. PM Abe continues to harness general popularity and general political stability;

Outlook and general comments:

Risk aversion is main catalyst for current appreciation of the yen as US stocks sold off;

Monitor the S&P500 index (rather shakey of late with some major sell-offs over recent times);

Consider the current flow of money into risk-on assets such as JPY, Gold and other safe havens;

Be sure to watch the BOJ release mid-week;

Monitor Stock markets of both UK and Japan and other leading indicators;

Trade war implications for both currencies as a follow on effect from both the US and China should be monitored;

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Certainly plenty of information to sift through and some of it is not of immediate concern to my 3 day outlook on a shorter term trade setup.

Based on my own analysis the GJ pair still looks more bearish than bullish at this time.

The situation may change though as profit taking occurs and the flow of data feeds into the market so its possible that I can take a piece of a 200 pip pullback to the upside but common sense suggests that risk applied on longs should be on the lower side at this time.

Recall that in general the QCS methodology seeks out reversals as entries to the start of new major trends which is the case for D1 setups however on smaller TF "shorter term setups" the logic is that a similar gain is made but from a smaller movement in price which ofcourse lends itself to a possible increase in risk.

It is possible that I may also look for another pair to form a shorter term setup to trade.

Shorter term setups on MML should be very carefully managed applying relatively lower risk unless you are present to monitor trade progress !

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,629
  • Oct 29, 2018 12:04am Oct 29, 2018 12:04am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Lets see how those trade setups play out. If you can post charts later that would be great. ps. I'm certainly looking towards a productive week but lets wait and see how this turns out. Masterrmind.............
Thank you for the encouragement I will do my best to post the charts in the evening ( now it's morning in Romania ) and I realized I am lacking the posting of fundamental analysis and they are also important in the confluence aspect. Will force myself to provide a more detailed opinion ( not sure if it would be the right one, but I must begin writing it ).
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,630
  • Oct 29, 2018 12:13am Oct 29, 2018 12:13am
GBPJPY [M15; MML Grid Modification]

I seek a potential pullback to the upside on this pair.

Looking for a shorter term long setup over a reduced number of pips.

In this real example I will perform a manual over-ride of the MML Grid prices by manually choosing both the 8/8 MML and 0/8 MML levels.

I can input these 2 price values into my MT5 indicator and all other levels will be automatically generated.

The idea is to choose a significant high and low region on the current chart that typically shows some recent PA both ab ove and below the Grid boundaries, that is, 8/8 for the upper and 0/8 for the lower.

The OB and OS extreme zones then should then overflow into recent PA.

Such as the following:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 32 KB

Am I forcing the Grid setup ? Yes

But I'm using reasonable levels on the chart as 8/8 and 0/8 MML price action levels.

I'm also trading the setup within recent PA.

The range is also considered here because a 2 Day trading range is possible over the next 3 days and my thought process is to get at least a 50% slice of this range scattered over several carefully placed entries.

Now I will re-adjust or simply remove and replace the pending Buy Stop orders to align with my manually designed MML Grid.

Note: The GJ pair could very easily continue down the chart so my initial entries must be at low relative volume (small lot size) such that a stopout will not be a major issue or create too much damage to the steady progress this account has shown.

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,631
  • Oct 29, 2018 12:30am Oct 29, 2018 12:30am
Quoting Masterrmind
GBPJPY [M15; MML Grid Modification] I seek a potential pullback to the upside on this pair. Looking for a shorter term long setup over a reduced number of pips. In this real example I will perform a manual over-ride of the MML Grid prices by manually choosing both the 8/8 MML and 0/8 MML levels. I can input these 2 price values into my MT5 indicator and all other levels will be automatically generated. The idea is to choose a significant high and low region on the current chart that typically shows some recent PA both ab ove and below the Grid boundaries,...
GJ [M15; adjusted shorter term setup]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 29 KB

1 market entry and several pending orders.

Initial risk on the 1st entry is about 0.9% of current account balance.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,632
  • Oct 29, 2018 3:03am Oct 29, 2018 3:03am
Thank you for a series of informative posts, I just leave Murrey set to 256 and toggle between 3 inter-linked time frames, Daily 30 min and 5 mins ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM30.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5.png Size: 77 KB
  • #2,633
  • Oct 29, 2018 3:44am Oct 29, 2018 3:44am
update, decent range but more left , will we see a chart shift ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5b.png Size: 72 KB
  • #2,634
  • Oct 29, 2018 4:09am Oct 29, 2018 4:09am
Quoting OAPDave
update, decent range but more left , will we see a chart shift ? {image}
Yes we have !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5c.png Size: 70 KB
  • #2,635
  • Oct 29, 2018 4:31am Oct 29, 2018 4:31am
AU 1H (240M period)) & 4H (DY period).... It's said that 95% of time price responds between +1/8 and +2/8.... believe or not.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,636
  • Oct 29, 2018 4:35am Oct 29, 2018 4:35am
Were to next, well we are going to need the remaining ADR range to hit the 30 min 1/8 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM30b.png Size: 76 KB
  • #2,637
  • Oct 29, 2018 4:45am Oct 29, 2018 4:45am
Quoting heispark
AU 1H (240M period)) & 4H (DY period).... It's said that 95% of time price responds between +1/8 and +2/8.... believe or not..... {image}{image}
Good stuff my friend
  • #2,638
  • Oct 29, 2018 7:23am Oct 29, 2018 7:23am
Quoting OAPDave
Thank you for a series of informative posts, I just leave Murrey set to 256 and toggle between 3 inter-linked time frames, Daily 30 min and 5 mins ? {image} {image} {image}
There are many ways to approach the Grid.

Looking over several TFs for confluence is good form.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,639
  • Oct 29, 2018 11:53pm Oct 29, 2018 11:53pm
AUD/USD

The price on the daily chart sits at a yearly low and that is situated in the 0/8 - -1/8 area. It seems to hold as it resulted in a quad pattern on the line ( close to the D letter ) and a pinbar later on. There has been also an AB-CD pattern completed.

On the weekly chart we have also a quad and another pinbar. The black line serves as support on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe, being the lowest price in the 52 weeks. Also on the weekly the AB-CD pattern is completed

On the monthly chart the price sits on the black line acting as support and I think the price will close above it.

Sorry for not being able to post more detailed charts as in meta trader drawing seems to be harder.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 89 KB
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,640
  • Oct 30, 2018 12:03am Oct 30, 2018 12:03am
XAU/EUR

The price in Daily and Weekly sits at 61.8 area where it also formed a pinbar.
Also as seen on the charts the area is a good resistance and that is visible in all timeframes D1, Weekly and Monthly
On the monthly, we see also a down channel so even if the candle is bullish it's still in the channel.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURDaily.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURWeekly.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURMonthly.png Size: 70 KB
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
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