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Pivot Trading

  • #21,881
  • Oct 25, 2018 9:05am Oct 25, 2018 9:05am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} Perhaps unsurprisingly you see a similar pattern in the average level of the VIX. usually, the VIX trends up from around August and tends to peak in October. So it's not at all unusual to see some elevated readings of the VIX or volatility index around this time of the year. But it's likewise not unusual to see the VIX start to taper off around now too.... Hence, my take would be a strong USD ahead...
Everything could change if GDP numbers print below 3.3
MM pricing it now
wont be surprised dumping of USD tomorrow
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,882
  • Edited 9:59am Oct 25, 2018 9:28am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Everything could change if GDP numbers print below 3.3 MM pricing it now wont be surprised dumping of USD tomorrow
Yes, that is a big probability... as the Advanced GDP reports are usually stronger among other GDP reports. However, the last reports gave a huge GDP swing of 4.2%. Thus, the upcoming GDP is relatively normal expectations of 3.3% is acceptable and not a negative one. Not unless it goes below expectations or consensus, just like you said.

If equal to expectations then it will depend on the following statement by Trump administration, moving forward. But above 3.3%, is a positive for USD in general.


By the way, about your story comment earlier about interest rates... Yes, housing is a concern.. .the FED seems fueling another crisis in the making if they continue to raise interest rates that fast. It seems they are banking on to speed up the rate of inflation.

No wonder Trump doesn't like what the FED is doing... The US is on track to become the leader in the Global Energy sector ahead of their target by the year 2022. And Trump view of Crude oil is overvalued... and rightly so. (He said this at UN convention last month). Unlike, the one-sided economy of most of the oil producing countries like the ones located in the middle east. Once oil prices started to go down, they started to panic and the rate of inflation spike up. Obviously, the US is more than just Oil & Natural Gas. Here, in the far-east like the Philippines, once Oil price spike up... almost instantly the price of basic goods and services spikes up and rate of inflation goes up higher than expectations. Almost all the EM countries are like quasi-peg to China's renminbi or Yuan... but the Debt of EM countries are denominated in US Dollars... so if FED keeps raising interest rates that fast, EM countries suffer even more... plus the fact the ongoing Trade War which slows down China's growth. Going back to 2008 most of the EM countries like the Philippines leads the bulk of Global GDP increases YoY from 2008 after the Global Financial Crisis. At those times, US interest rates were zero back then or almost zero. Then recently... it seems payback time ; )─ a reversal or a correction is going on.
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #21,883
  • Oct 25, 2018 10:00am Oct 25, 2018 10:00am
EG still pushing higher, radar mode on, better to wait a little longer.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #21,884
  • Edited 3:42pm Oct 25, 2018 11:20am | Edited 3:42pm
My EA hit TP (note its EUR/AUD sell order manual not EA can be confusing)
over 1200 in actual dollars
Not bad more then my weekly wages on my day job! By far
You maybe wondering why not trade full time.Simple answer health insurance.Need my job for that.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,885
  • Edited 12:49pm Oct 25, 2018 12:38pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Me too. I'm also long on AU and AN, this one since last week since there's balance between A & N. This morning there were many interesting setup and among them for sure EU and EC long were an option, I preferred to go for AUD. Best regards, Bubincka {image}

Nice trade on AJ...

On AU... AUD looks undervalued against USD, and in terms of interest rate differential aspect, it’s very one-sided. There's also a possibility of looming material downside as the AUD moves to close the gap vs policy rate differentials. If it does, then I may need to check Pivots on how far it may go down or up, and then see if there will be an overshoot on either side of fair value.
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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #21,886
  • Oct 25, 2018 2:56pm Oct 25, 2018 2:56pm
Davit have you ever got interested in trading other markets than forex?
  • #21,887
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:12pm Oct 25, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting RieseP
Davit have you ever got interested in trading other markets than forex?
No I find so far forex to be relatively cheap to trade.As long as I don't hold USD sell orders too long.
Stocks ? not interested OIL? Got CAD for that Gold Silver? No interest
I am hitting 8-12k a month trading forex why change anything.My issues right now are with taxes
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,888
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:19pm Oct 25, 2018 3:19pm
For sure, I just came to conclusion with having so much success in a certain area, do you have the curiosity to obtain them success via stocks indices etc?

i surpose to stick to what good at
  • #21,889
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:19pm Oct 25, 2018 3:19pm
Quoting RieseP
For sure, I just came to conclusion with having so much success in a certain area, do you have the curiosity to obtain them success via stocks indices etc? i surpose to stick to what good at
Come to the UK
  • #21,890
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:45pm Oct 25, 2018 3:45pm
Davitt, A wonder when I look at your results and the closeness of some of you entries, you are also a working person like myself - I am not able to get enough orders in around the S/R levels when I see a failure. Too many meetings, commuting to work etc. do you put in Market Orders ? i.e. You see EURAUD fail at 1.6250 and you see its around 1.6220 ish at night or before you go to work. then set some orders to sell at below 1.62... space them out xx points etc.
  • #21,891
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:56pm Oct 25, 2018 3:56pm
Quoting atraderfx
Davitt, A wonder when I look at your results and the closeness of some of you entries, you are also a working person like myself - I am not able to get enough orders in around the S/R levels when I see a failure. Too many meetings, commuting to work etc. do you put in Market Orders ? i.e. You see EURAUD fail at 1.6250 and you see its around 1.6220 ish at night or before you go to work. then set some orders to sell at below 1.62... space them out xx points etc.
Its doable specially pairs that are ranging like UJ you could place sell at 1260-13 say 10 orders and walk away TP 12
It could become a problem doing this before major event you must look ahead.I work full time and have no issues keeping up with trading plus this forum
yes can be done short answer
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,892
  • Oct 25, 2018 4:21pm Oct 25, 2018 4:21pm
be savvy spotting rangy pairs like UJ now.Its money in the bank.I love range unlike trend traders who hate them.Range to me where you can stack up on orders, collect and rinse repeat.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,893
  • Oct 26, 2018 12:12am Oct 26, 2018 12:12am
Tell me please, am I doing the right thing?
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When you do not understand what to do, do not do anything.
  • #21,894
  • Edited 12:31am Oct 26, 2018 12:19am | Edited 12:31am
Yes just relax and wait for the price to move against you.

Ok a bit sarcastic, but who can answer that question? You are already in the trade.
  • #21,895
  • Oct 26, 2018 12:51am Oct 26, 2018 12:51am
AUD slump took me by surprise, difficult atm to decide if to enter at these low prices for AJ and AU could be good also considering USD news later today.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #21,896
  • Oct 26, 2018 1:17am Oct 26, 2018 1:17am
Quoting bubincka
AUD slump took me by surprise, difficult atm to decide if to enter at these low prices for AJ and AU could be good also considering USD news later today.
Same thing, was very suprised in the morning... closed half & re-enterd at the bottom
let's wait)
  • #21,897
  • Oct 26, 2018 1:23am Oct 26, 2018 1:23am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} Nice trade on AJ... On AU... AUD looks undervalued against USD, and in terms of interest rate differential aspect, it’s very one-sided. There's also a possibility of looming material downside as the AUD moves to close the gap vs policy rate differentials. If it does, then I may need to check Pivots on how far it may go down or up, and then see if there will be an overshoot on either side of fair value. {image}
Hi v2vboni,

AU seems undervalued to me too, but again considering housing issue, how much Australia is a proxy of China economy on which trade war weights, recent political instability, it can be that AUD is and could remain weak for some time.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #21,898
  • Oct 26, 2018 1:24am Oct 26, 2018 1:24am
i'm watching AJ now...
  • #21,899
  • Oct 26, 2018 2:16am Oct 26, 2018 2:16am
Welcome back buddy!

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  • #21,900
  • Oct 26, 2018 2:58am Oct 26, 2018 2:58am
Quoting General Lee
i'm watching AJ now...
NJ too is on interesting price level. Next week there will be BOJ meeting and AUD CPI on Wednesday and on Friday AUD retail sales and NZD ANZ. Maybe after these events will know more about AUD and NZD. As of today, on risk-averse market JPY safe haven rules.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
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