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  • #361
  • Oct 13, 2018 9:24am Oct 13, 2018 9:24am
Buy the dip
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #362
  • Oct 13, 2018 12:35pm Oct 13, 2018 12:35pm
Sure BTD after two wide range daily bar drops.

Like a hot potato though, just don't hold it very long.

Corrections are at least three waves and we've seen only one, possibly complete, so far.
  • #363
  • Oct 13, 2018 7:19pm Oct 13, 2018 7:19pm
Quoting jag1969
{quote} I agree with you. Even try to correct could be by few hours. I hope the index at 2550. what´s your opinion.
Studying the S&P500 from H4, i´m considering that maybe the uptrend correction could be longer. I change my target to 2852 (61% retracement) or 2887 (76% retracement).
  • #364
  • Oct 13, 2018 8:56pm Oct 13, 2018 8:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
Anyone who BTF'gD can expect to lose more before the bottom eventually hits. Home building is tanking while inflation is rising. Not a good recipe for growth. And that massive tax cut is still helping the only ones it really helped, the 0.01 percenters.
Trading and investing are 2 different animals. Speaking from the perspective of investing I've bought the "dips" and market corrections in US markets (ETFs) through dollar cost averaging for the last 30 years and because of this I'm a 401k millionaire. The US market is pretty much the only market this can be done in. From a trading perspective I only trade charts and could care less what the fundamentals say. If you are trading like an investor then you are likely to lose by buying dips only because they are dips. I personally believe trading should be done via charts and technical analysis. Trading fundamentals via news announcements or similar is akin to gambling. I'd rather play blackjack.

Anyone with 1/2 a brain can see that the US economy is on fire and if you have the other 1/2 a brain you'll figure out how fundamental tax cuts were to igniting this fire. Inflation is a natural consequence of a booming economy. One of the Feds mandates is to keep inflation at bay thus the talk about increasing interest rates. Fear of inflation has caused the mortgage rates to increase and this is the reason for the caution in home building.

In summary: Buy dips in US equity markets. The younger you are the more aggressive you can be. The older you are the more balanced your investing approach should be by including bonds and other similar investing instruments. If you're trading trade the charts and forget the news and fundies.
  • #365
  • Oct 14, 2018 8:30am Oct 14, 2018 8:30am
Quoting jag1969
{quote} Studying the S&P500 from H4, i´m considering that maybe the uptrend correction could be longer. I change my target to 2852 (61% retracement) or 2887 (76% retracement).
???

A correction in an uptrend .... is down not up. Correction against the main trend, which means your retracement is plotted the wrong direction.
  • #366
  • Oct 14, 2018 12:05pm Oct 14, 2018 12:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} ??? A correction in an uptrend .... is down not up. Correction against the main trend, which means your retracement is plotted the wrong direction.

trend bearish so correction against main direction. Short term bullish. I´m sorry but my english....
  • #367
  • Oct 14, 2018 1:15pm Oct 14, 2018 1:15pm
Quoting jag1969
{quote} trend bearish so correction against main direction. Short term bullish. I´m sorry but my english....
So you consider the move down from all time highs .... a trend? A down trend I presume? Yet you refer to an uptrend correction?

Maybe its the language barrier but in any case, trends however one defines them, are not corrections. And vice versa.
  • #368
  • Oct 14, 2018 1:52pm Oct 14, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} So you consider the move down from all time highs .... a trend? A down trend I presume? Yet you refer to an uptrend correction? Maybe its the language barrier but in any case, trends however one defines them, are not corrections. And vice versa.
Now, i understand you. Uptrend refers to trend so uptrend correction is a contradiction. I talk about a downtrend from the all time highs. But now a correction to go on with the downtrend. I hope the index at 2550 or below.
  • #369
  • Oct 14, 2018 6:31pm Oct 14, 2018 6:31pm
I submit the term "Trend" is an overused, abused and quite frankly irrelevant term that traders use with extreme unreliability. But if you believe in so-called trends then pullbacks should not matter. Just enter anywhere with the so-called "main-trend" and ride it out. Come on just do it!!!. That's what I thought.
  • #370
  • Oct 14, 2018 9:30pm Oct 14, 2018 9:30pm
hi traders..i used to trade the emini back in the 90's when retail forex didnt even xist yet LOL...my question is has anyone traded the micro fx futures?..and if so what is the spread on those
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #371
  • Oct 15, 2018 8:15am Oct 15, 2018 8:15am
Quoting wasntme
hi traders..i used to trade the emini back in the 90's when retail forex didnt even xist yet LOL...my question is has anyone traded the micro fx futures?..and if so what is the spread on those
Don't trade them so don't know the spread since the volume is so small, about 5-7% of the big full size contract ,there are much better ways to put money to work.

For instance if I want to put on many multiple contracts of a low margin symbol I go with eMini Crude QMZ18 or E-Micro Gold MGCZ18.
  • #372
  • Oct 20, 2018 11:17am Oct 20, 2018 11:17am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Don't trade them so don't know the spread since the volume is so small, about 5-7% of the big full size contract ,there are much better ways to put money to work. For instance if I want to put on many multiple contracts of a low margin symbol I go with eMini Crude QMZ18 or E-Micro Gold MGCZ18.
It appears a temporary upside correction is pending. The 2,750 area looks like it is holding up.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #373
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:19pm Oct 20, 2018 1:19pm
Unless and until the S&P drops considering more (which it might, who knows) the trend, daily and higher, is till up so counter trend corrections would be down - not up.
  • #374
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:35pm Oct 20, 2018 1:35pm
Actually upon looking further at the SPX chart I would add to my previous post the correction DOWN will accelerate if 2750 are does NOT hold and if so turn into a full blown bear market.
  • #375
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:40pm Oct 20, 2018 1:40pm
Quoting SunTrader
Unless and until the S&P drops considering more (which it might, who knows) the trend, daily and higher, is till up so counter trend corrections would be down - not up.
Sorry for my incorrect wording. I think some kind of relief from the selling is due.

I believe however that the smart money is long gone and this is the start of a downtrend on the larger weekly chart.
Worldwide debt has far exceeded the levels of the 2008 crisis and interest rates are rising in the U.S. China GDP is finally slowing too not to mention the specter of a trade war.
It seems Governments that have overspent are now going after people for that money in the forms of fees, higher taxes etc.
Credit expansion is tightening. Must give time to pay down some of that debt. Does not bode well for a consumer heavy economy.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #376
  • Oct 20, 2018 2:14pm Oct 20, 2018 2:14pm
Agree. Take a look at Existing Home Sales report graph from this past Friday Oct 19th - on the Calendar tab.

What jumps out to me is during during uptrends Forecasts are beaten and vice versa during downtrends (like currently) forecasts are below actual monthly data points. That's what rising mortgage interest rates do to housing markets. Along with increased credit card rates and business investment costs - will it bring on a recession?
  • #377
  • Oct 20, 2018 3:57pm Oct 20, 2018 3:57pm
Quoting SunTrader
Agree. Take a look at Existing Home Sales report graph from this past Friday Oct 19th - on the Calendar tab. What jumps out to me is during during uptrends Forecasts are beaten and vice versa during downtrends (like currently) forecasts are below actual monthly data points. That's what rising mortgage interest rates do to housing markets. Along with increased credit card rates and business investment costs - will it bring on a recession?
Bernanke said in 2020 the economy will fall off a cliff. GDP estimates shrinking. Trump stimulus spent. At a time when we are at full employment. God help us. Yes, recession in a couple years.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #378
  • Oct 23, 2018 7:49am Oct 23, 2018 7:49am
Quoting Temujin
... Yes, recession in a couple years.
Might not be that long a wait. Look at XHB Housing ETF, and also first time in 6 years monthly rent prices are down.

Meanwhile Drumpf tries to sucker voters again with another "middle class" tax cut.
  • #379
  • Oct 23, 2018 7:53pm Oct 23, 2018 7:53pm
Amazing drop on the S&P500 to the 2700 points from where it bounces to the upside, but the current pullback could turn out to be a dead cat bounce formation, which has bearish implications in the midterm.
  • #380
  • Oct 23, 2018 7:57pm Oct 23, 2018 7:57pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Might not be that long a wait. Look at XHB Housing ETF, and also first time in 6 years monthly rent prices are down. Meanwhile Drumpf tries to sucker voters again with another "middle class" tax cut.
So you admit tax cuts weren't just for the corporations.
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