Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1733 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #34,641
  • Oct 18, 2018 4:42am Oct 18, 2018 4:42am
looks like Cable has already popped the Lagavulin ... I think I will pull out some poker cards, this is too lame ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #34,642
  • Oct 18, 2018 4:51am Oct 18, 2018 4:51am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yes, you can see it like pulling out marbles. But the nasty marbles have to lose less than the good ones ... that is why I am advocating a sl. Manage the loss ...ok, if you can do that, I cannot control my risk that way. I think Claudia also uses sl. It calms your trading.
Method of optimizing SL and TP could be a discussion point.

Fixed SL and TP not works good.

I prefer, having one position till it hit the TP, closing it when the trade direction is changed. It could work well for with trend entries and helps avoiding wrong closing when market behavior is weird.
  • #34,643
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:15am Oct 18, 2018 5:15am
Quoting rekon67
{quote} Method of optimizing SL and TP could be a discussion point. Fixed SL and TP not works good. I prefer, having one position till it hit the TP, closing it when the trade direction is changed. It could work well for with trend entries and helps avoiding wrong closing when market behavior is weird.
Ok, we can discuss fixed TPs, although they work in trends as I have tested, however if the sl is not fixed on the entry (if this does not mean trailing stop towards the target), then how is the risk defined?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #34,644
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:22am Oct 18, 2018 5:22am
Quoting rekon67
{quote} That is nicely summed up for all! Nothing more. We do need to brainstorm on what-if scenarios once the trade is opened!
I had originally used it as a way to rep counter trading technique. If the trade went ''wrong'', I would set a range and counter from there if price carried on over that level.

Using the low time frames means that you can get in a lot of training mileage in a short period of time.
  • #34,645
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:24am Oct 18, 2018 5:24am
Quoting Pipradar
{quote} Sorry no offence at all, Lem was not insulting you and neither was I. It is English Scottish Humour no more no less, so please do not be offended.
Wot he sed...
  • #34,646
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:27am Oct 18, 2018 5:27am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Ok, we can discuss fixed TPs, although they work in trends as I have tested, however if the sl is not fixed on the entry (if this does not mean trailing stop towards the target), then how is the risk defined?
We need to take a back step.

A) What Risk Reward we are looking at/expected? 1:2 means say 50 pips SL and 100 pips TP
B) Is this risk reward is going to work uniformly for all instruments?
C) At what point I should set my SL or Risk?
D) Should I now calculate or put my TP based on RR?

----
E) I now know, my RR is working for Instrument 1, 2 and 3 but not for 4, 5 and 6.
F) I see my RR is not working because my winning rate % is less than 80%

---
G) How to improve my win rate%
H) My win rate is >80% but is my SL and TP or Risk Reward optimized?
---
I) When my win rate is > 80%, how much Draw Down I am getting on average on my open positions? We can take this point to optimize the SL, thus minimizing Risk.
J) When my win rate is > 80%, how early I am closing my trades, optimize TP points/pips or trading lot for better Reward.
  • #34,647
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:28am Oct 18, 2018 5:28am
Anyone try the "Billy bar" this morning ?
Smacked me out of a short failing to reach 5 pips before it reversed so losing six pips. Got in again for "Wick Zone" trade ( LEM ) long which saved my bacon. Like Lem says, that once in the trade you have to manage it with a pre thought out plan. I learnt that some time ago and found "wick zone" excellent -it's just that , sometimes, in the heat of "wot the f... do I do now?" that I forget. Overall a break even trade and a few frazzled nerves.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,648
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:28am Oct 18, 2018 5:28am
Quoting turnip15
Anyone try the "Billy bar" this morning ? Smacked me out of a short failing to reach 5 pips before it reversed so losing six pips. Got in again for "Wick Zone" trade ( LEM ) long which saved my bacon. Like Lem says, that once in the trade you have to manage it with a pre thought out plan. I learnt that some time ago and found "wick zone" excellent -it's just that , sometimes, in the heat of "wot the f... do I do now?" that I forget. Overall a break even trade and a few frazzled nerves. {image}
I'm watching you Turnip !
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,649
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:42am Oct 18, 2018 5:42am
Quoting turnip15
Anyone try the "Billy bar" this morning ? Smacked me out of a short failing to reach 5 pips before it reversed so losing six pips. Got in again for "Wick Zone" trade ( LEM ) long which saved my bacon. Like Lem says, that once in the trade you have to manage it with a pre thought out plan. I learnt that some time ago and found "wick zone" excellent -it's just that , sometimes, in the heat of "wot the f... do I do now?" that I forget. Overall a break even trade and a few frazzled nerves. {image}
When you scalp, it is crucial that you have a pre-set plan. You simply cannot wait and think about what to do next. If you try that, even for a second or two, the big algos will already have gobbled up your entry and you'll be getting in as they are getting out. Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad...
  • #34,650
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:49am Oct 18, 2018 5:49am
LEM-
Out of interest Lem.
The 15 minute chart I mentioned above is a different animal to this Ichi 1 Minute chart that I use for forex ( outside of "Billy bar" and "Dead Zone"). A 5 pip Range bar chart gives similar reading.
The only trade valid here is the long. Food for thought where I am considering dropping one trading approach to clean out the tool box :-)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,651
  • Oct 18, 2018 5:50am Oct 18, 2018 5:50am
Quoting rekon67
{quote} We need to take a back step. A) What Risk Reward we are looking at/expected? 1:2 means say 50 pips SL and 100 pips TP B) Is this risk reward is going to work uniformly for all instruments? C) At what point I should set my SL or Risk? D) Should I now calculate or put my TP based on RR? ---- E) I now know, my RR is working for Instrument 1, 2 and 3 but not for 4, 5 and 6. F) I see my RR is not working because my winning rate % is less than 80% --- G) How to improve my win rate% H) My win rate is >80% but is my SL and TP or Risk Reward optimized?...
Ok, so ...

A) Yes. For example, I am good with 2:1 because I only need 40 %. Can geht that via trends.

B) Probably not, so one has to choose their assets wisely.

C) Obviously before the trade ... is it smart to start analysis while a trade is ticking against you at a rate of 30, 40 pips a minute?

D) Yes, but only if it is realistic that the market can reach it. Does not yield much to set TP + 200 if the market is unlikely to move there any time soon.

E) Cut them out then

F) Puts a lot of pressure on imo to aim for such high winrates

G) Maybe that is not the right question because of the rest ...

H) Can only test that ... same for the rest of points.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #34,652
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:05am Oct 18, 2018 6:05am
Lem -Dax on one Minute -dived below 700 before open today and climbed up to trigger a long. Not traded by me but is an example of what I look at now outside of "Billy" trades.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,653
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:07am Oct 18, 2018 6:07am
The Monster is up to something...

H1

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Things are tightening up and price has worked its way back into the box-zone I have carried over from the left edge and set up over the last big-move period.
  • #34,654
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:09am Oct 18, 2018 6:09am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Ok, so ... A) Yes. For example, I am good with 2:1 because I only need 40 %. Can geht that via trends. B) Probably not, so one has to choose their assets wisely. C) Obviously before the trade ... is it smart to start analysis while a trade is ticking against you at a rate of 30, 40 pips a minute? D) Yes, but only if it is realistic that the market can reach it. Does not yield much to set TP + 200 if the market is unlikely to move there any time soon. E) Cut them out then F) Puts a lot...
A. So 2:1 RR would be - setting 200 pips SL for 100 pips TP, it works like a charm when USD pairs such as EU/GU are trending on same direction for 3-4 months.
B. This point will remain tricky because of Market nature and serpentine movement pattern of price, we have to calculate various scenarios including mad moves often done by the market
C. Yes, so cut the loss or profit when trade direction changes- therefore - No SL or TP because you are going with Long term trend direction, for conservative approach on top of it would be putting an SL % based on Account Equity or Risk Appetite.
  • #34,655
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:09am Oct 18, 2018 6:09am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Ok, so ... A) Yes. For example, I am good with 2:1 because I only need 40 %. Can geht that via trends. B) Probably not, so one has to choose their assets wisely. C) Obviously before the trade ... is it smart to start analysis while a trade is ticking against you at a rate of 30, 40 pips a minute? D) Yes, but only if it is realistic that the market can reach it. Does not yield much to set TP + 200 if the market is unlikely to move there any time soon. E) Cut them out then F) Puts a lot of pressure on imo to aim for such high winrates G) Maybe...
Like the OP of this thread "Billy" has proved -Little profit and often is statistically more realistic than looking for "runs" - just look at his charts.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,656
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:14am Oct 18, 2018 6:14am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} When you scalp, it is crucial that you have a pre-set plan. You simply cannot wait and think about what to do next. If you try that, even for a second or two, the big algos will already have gobbled up your entry and you'll be getting in as they are getting out. Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad...
I hope you're taking note Turnip !
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #34,657
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:15am Oct 18, 2018 6:15am
Quoting lemercenaire
The Monster is up to something... H1 {image} Things are tightening up and price has worked its way back into the box-zone I have carried over from the left edge and set up over the last big-move period.
As Line Break...

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  • #34,658
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:16am Oct 18, 2018 6:16am
Quoting montego
All set, changed the spread, added a bit of something that ends in gale and should not be mentioned lol, trying to claw back a bit from last night. {image}
No Trade opened, Don't know why, but Ea is in development stage also i may have wrong settings.
Billy bar paid out again this morning though
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  • #34,659
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:19am Oct 18, 2018 6:19am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Like the OP of this thread "Billy" has proved -Little profit and often is statistically more realistic than looking for "runs" - just look at his charts.
Yes, but the risk has to be defined. I cannot open a trade for + 15 or + 20, then figure out it is - 20 or - 40 and start to "hedge" ... I have tried that for two years and the losses piled up like dead bodies in a battle long term. Plus there is no counter to a - 250 pip spike or so on some unexpected events.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #34,660
  • Oct 18, 2018 6:21am Oct 18, 2018 6:21am
Good luck all - back tomorrow.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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