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Systematic Trend Trading

  • #421
  • Sep 18, 2018 12:54pm Sep 18, 2018 12:54pm
Quoting 60minuteman
The confirmation bias, the human tendency to succumb to tunnel vision and favor information that confirms preexisting beliefs, is based on the same "selective attention" that guides visual perception. {image}
Stresses the importance of humility and lack of ego...
  • #422
  • Sep 18, 2018 12:57pm Sep 18, 2018 12:57pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Feel pretty sure you're right about most things?... of course you do, we all do. But you are very likely wrong. http://perils.ipsos.com/quiz/index.html
“The more I find out, the less I know” ~ Johnny Nash
  • #423
  • Sep 18, 2018 1:43pm Sep 18, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting 60minuteman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xddDCTCLNBk
Nice. :-)
  • #424
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:49pm Sep 18, 2018 3:49pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I also say "I don't know" more often than I ever did before. it's ok to say you don't know and it leaves the door open to new information you would normally ignore.
Quite so. There is no need to know what the market is going to do next, in order to be consistently profitable. This simple, though counterintuitive truth, is a solid base for any successful strategy, including yours and mine.
  • #425
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:57pm Sep 18, 2018 3:57pm
Quoting CandleSurfer
{quote} “The more I find out, the less I know” ~ Johnny Nash
Socrates would definitely like this quote.
  • #426
  • Sep 21, 2018 4:36pm Sep 21, 2018 4:36pm
Trade 191, 192, 193, 194, 195 stopped

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-09-22 at 00.34.58.png Size: 45 KB


Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
Week 12 +6
Week 13 +14R
Week 14 -3R
Week 15 +15R
Week 16 +19R
Week 17 -6R
Week 18 +7R
Week 19 -5R
tradewith60
  • #427
  • Sep 21, 2018 7:17pm Sep 21, 2018 7:17pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Trade 191, 192, 193, 194, 195 stopped {image}
I love watching a well oiled machine in action
  • #428
  • Sep 23, 2018 1:58am Sep 23, 2018 1:58am
Technical analysis is like measuring wind conditions for a coin flipping game. I could definitely make easier, lower risk returns selling technical analysis courses because that's why most people want. People want certainty and will gravitate towards ideas that increase certainty regardless of any facts.
tradewith60
  • #429
  • Sep 24, 2018 5:52am Sep 24, 2018 5:52am
It all look so low-risk...don’t get fooled by smoothness of returns - volatile strategies like trend following is a sing of robustness if done right

Attached Image
tradewith60
  • #430
  • Sep 25, 2018 8:12pm Sep 25, 2018 8:12pm
Quoting 60minuteman
It all look so low-risk...don’t get fooled by smoothness of returns - volatile strategies like trend following is a sing of robustness if done right {image}
This documentary is getting harder and harder to find online. Interesting.

http://watchdocumentaries.com/trillion-dollar-bet/
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #431
  • Sep 26, 2018 12:46am Sep 26, 2018 12:46am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This documentary is getting harder and harder to find online. Interesting. http://watchdocumentaries.com/trillion-dollar-bet/
It's a great film
tradewith60
  • #432
  • Sep 26, 2018 8:09am Sep 26, 2018 8:09am
I've just been listening to the audio book of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator about Jesse Livermore (it's on YouTube). I read it a couple years back and thought I'd listen to it to see if I could understand it in a different light. Lots of people say it's one of the most important books for traders to read but it seems like a lot of it is not applicable anymore. He advocates going with the trend and not listening to tips which applies to us but he also talks about how he always analyses the charts to see how a stock behaves and trying to be right more than he is wrong. Totally not how 60 trades, and trades very well. Any thoughts on this old book?
  • #433
  • Sep 26, 2018 1:46pm Sep 26, 2018 1:46pm
Quoting Alseonbang
I've just been listening to the audio book of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator about Jesse Livermore (it's on YouTube). I read it a couple years back and thought I'd listen to it to see if I could understand it in a different light. Lots of people say it's one of the most important books for traders to read but it seems like a lot of it is not applicable anymore. He advocates going with the trend and not listening to tips which applies to us but he also talks about how he always analyses the charts to see how a stock behaves and trying to be right...
I believe the importance of the book is due to the fact that he not only made a lot of money, he also blew his accounts more than once. It is a good example of how the trading game is not a game with a beginning and an end, you never really 'make it', no matter how good you get you have to remain grounded or the market will turn around and bite you. It could also be argued that a lot of his biggest wins were lucky, right place at the right time kind of thing. With regards analysis of particular instruments we also have to remember he was mainly trading stocks and that is fundamentally different to trading two currencies against each other. Certain rules can be transferred like riding trends, other rules not so.
tradewith60
  • #434
  • Sep 28, 2018 10:17am Sep 28, 2018 10:17am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I believe the importance of the book is due to the fact that he not only made a lot of money, he also blew his accounts more than once. It is a good example of how the trading game is not a game with a beginning and an end, you never really 'make it', no matter how good you get you have to remain grounded or the market will turn around and bite you. It could also be argued that a lot of his biggest wins were lucky, right place at the right time kind of thing. With regards analysis of particular instruments we also have to remember he was...
Right, Jesse Livermore lost everything several times over and in the end it came back to bite him in the biggest way possible....suicide. Well, at least we can speculate that the losses may have been a major factor behind his depression. This in itself is a good lesson though. I hope the emotional toll of taking losses leads me to that much despair.

I'm down 5R on the week and have an open trade at 3R now (which is also break even). I have to keep reminding myself that losses this week and possibly next week and the week after are all part of the cost of profiting long term. Giving back gains is not easy but hopefully I'll not go down the same route as Jesse.
  • #435
  • Sep 28, 2018 5:34pm Sep 28, 2018 5:34pm
200 trades in now... +28R

Trade 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202 Stopped

Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
Week 12 +6
Week 13 +14R
Week 14 -3R
Week 15 +15R
Week 16 +19R
Week 17 -6R
Week 18 +7R
Week 19 -5R
Week 20 -7R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-09-29 at 01.22.33.png Size: 133 KB
tradewith60
  • #436
  • Sep 29, 2018 5:23am Sep 29, 2018 5:23am
the chances of my trades losing is very high, the chance of me having a losing week are about 50/50, the chance of me having a losing year and very very low... I want a robust strategy that will compound my gains over a very long time horizon. Based on evidence this is how all traders with long proven track records trade - who do you believe, those with proven track records or retail traders on forums?
tradewith60
  • #437
  • Sep 29, 2018 7:49am Sep 29, 2018 7:49am
"Disciplined management with good data should be superior to discretionary management with memory."

http://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/201...ystematic.html
tradewith60
  • #438
  • Sep 30, 2018 10:38am Sep 30, 2018 10:38am
"A good storyteller with a decent idea will always have more influence than someone with a great idea who hopes the facts will speak for themselves."
tradewith60
  • #439
  • Sep 30, 2018 10:42am Sep 30, 2018 10:42am
Be like Sherlock Holmes

"Like the scientist trying to solve a mystery of nature, Holmes first gathered all the evidence he could that was relevant to his problem. At times, he performed experiments to obtain fresh data. He then surveyed the total evidence in the light of his vast knowledge of crime, and/or sciences relevant to crime, to arrive at the most probable hypothesis. Deductions were made from the hypothesis; then the theory was further tested against new evidence, revised if need be, until finally the truth emerged with a probability close to certainty."
tradewith60
  • #440
  • Oct 1, 2018 3:18pm Oct 1, 2018 3:18pm
Quoting 60minuteman
200 trades in now... +28R Trade 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202 Stopped Results: Week 1 +4R Week 2 -14R Week 3 -2R Week 4 -3R Week 5 +3R Week 6 +4R Week 7 -7R Week 8 -10R Week 9 -4R Week 10 -13 Week 11 +21 Week 12 +6 Week 13 +14R Week 14 -3R Week 15 +15R Week 16 +19R Week 17 -6R Week 18 +7R Week 19 -5R Week 20 -7R {image}
well done for sticking to your plan! Just out of interest are you trading $¥ m15?
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