Disliked{quote} I'm trying break even at 2R and trailing 2R behind from 5R. Consequently been stopped out several times though with 3R...a bit worried these wins wont cover all the losses.Ignored
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Disliked{quote} I'm trying break even at 2R and trailing 2R behind from 5R. Consequently been stopped out several times though with 3R...a bit worried these wins wont cover all the losses.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Actually 5,6,7R are all good but at some point you need to hang your hat on one option or another. There is no problem with updating your choice when you have overwhelming evidence to suggest it is wise, and in fact that is exactly what we should do. What we should not do is make changes based on small data samples. We are very skilled at looking at events like the last few days and quickly deciding that we have found a better strategy - but it is very rarely the case if we dig a bit deeper into the data.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I'm trying break even at 2R and trailing 2R behind from 5R. Consequently been stopped out several times though with 3R...a bit worried these wins wont cover all the losses.Ignored
DislikedI'm always banging on about luck but never that good at explaining why it is important.... thankfully someone has done it for me https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ironies-of-luck/Ignored
Disliked{quote} Just going off the trades posted since the beginning of this thread it seems that 5/6/7R is hit quite often? Do you do backtesting or just forward? Just asking because you seem to have confidence and discipline to take losses and hitting 5-7R and happy to see it hit full SL but based on what?Ignored
Disliked{quote} I'm really enjoying where you are going with your new thread but I am unable to contribute. Some of it is admittedly over my head but I get where you are going with it. You may like this blog I follow: Flirting with Models https://blog.thinknewfound.com/trend-following/Ignored
Disliked{quote} Whats your win:lose ratio at the moment? What R is your SL? 3R is a nice minimum win but only makes sense in context with how many losses and how much each is....Ignored
DislikedI would also like to add ive NEVER been up this much in 2 months....I've always lost money and for the first time ever I'm making gains. I may still be on the wrong track until I've got enough data but overall I've completely changed my strategy to not get hung up on the entry and focus on bigger gains and trade management.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I haven't collected enough data yet as I've only started going for +5R since first reading this blog about 2 months ago. I use a slightly different entry technique to 60 whereby I just draw two lines for support and resistance on the 4H chart either side of current price and take momentum entries through these (seems to be about 2 or 3 trades a week). Over 2 months price has gone to 5R about 4 or 5 times, but rarely 6 and never 7R. I move to break even at 2R and trail when it gets to 5R with a 2R gap. I usually get stopped out which nets...Ignored
Disliked{quote} In my case data (thousands of trades) makes me very accustomed to my setup and I am able to quickly identify my setup (one or two seconds), not much thinking while trading thus less confusion and frustation Without data you don't know what will be the most efficient method and you will be very quickly changing your system based on small sample of data (curve fitting), this last several month market movement has been quite wide (look at ATR on Daily), esp the JPY crosses making like >100pips a day which is good for any momentum based strategy...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Huge amounts of backtest data, different markets, different timeframes, different entry techniques, different trend identifiers. Then simulations of 1000's of runs with random generated data (how much variance to expect if the wins and losers come in different orders) and lastly evidence from traders who have survived and prospered over long time horizons. When you put this all together you have a better idea (but not a guarantee) of what elements are important and what really make little difference at all. So for example I would arrive...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I haven't collected enough data yet as I've only started going for +5R since first reading this blog about 2 months ago. I use a slightly different entry technique to 60 whereby I just draw two lines for support and resistance on the 4H chart either side of current price and take momentum entries through these (seems to be about 2 or 3 trades a week). Over 2 months price has gone to 5R about 4 or 5 times, but rarely 6 and never 7R. I move to break even at 2R and trail when it gets to 5R with a 2R gap. I usually get stopped out which nets...Ignored
Disliked{quote} 60 your head is so in the right place and it’s so refreshing to converse with someone who actually knows what they’re doing for once! Rock solid analysis there as always. I am about to start trading a trend following system that reassuringly sounds very similar to what you say above Easily Recognisable price action pattern Two lots, cumulatively 1 or 2% of available equity (will back test and tweak this) close first lot at 2R (again may look at 3-4R too) move stop on second lot to 1R trail stop at recent swing lows clearly need to test the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} thanks for the words of support Candlesurfer. Your plan sounds good, just look very carefully at how your trail compares with giving it just another R or two before moving to b.e. Here is 7 years of GOLD with with b.e at 1R and trail at 3 or b.e at 3R and trail at 5R (no compounding).... Over years with compounding the difference in returns would be huge {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks very useful couldn’t help but notice the difference in number of trades that suggests a different entry parameters for each? In any case I get the point and yes those figures on losing periods etc are not to be underestimated so as not to be uncomfortable trading the systemIgnored
Disliked{quote} the difference in trade numbers is due to the tighter trail getting stopped out on the trail and re-entering whilst the wider trail is still open and did not re-enter.Ignored
Disliked{quote} wanted to like your post but commercial members are not allowed too, even if it's their own thread!... so here it is, LIKE! By the way I come from more creative industries, helps in some ways and not in others. Wish I had more solid math's to back up the creative ideas.Ignored