Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) | Page 40 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help with Exotics 15 replies

Anyone trading the ZAR, PLN, HUF or TRY? 3 replies

Crosses and exotics (gbp/aud...) 11 replies

Trading Exotics 2 replies

trading exotics 0 replies

Attachments: Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)
Exit Attachments

Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

  • #781
  • Sep 24, 2018 5:55pm Sep 24, 2018 5:55pm
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY Erdogan is visiting USA today..and he will visit Germany in next days..market has expected some psitive developments from these meetings..and first good news came out..Pompeo said that Brunson may be released within one month..Try got some strenght.. i got some scalp profit today with longs..now holding 3 long position at 6.33, 6.27 and 6.19..total leverage 1/1.5..my bullish bias continue but bears may have control for a while, with better US relations..i will hold my longs but no more new positions in UsdTry for now..
I'm waiting on Fed rate hike to trade USDTRY long. I don't really believe that the priest is going t get released since I think it will undermine Erdogan's ego.

Any thoughts?
  • #782
  • Sep 24, 2018 7:53pm Sep 24, 2018 7:53pm
President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy” now this is interesting
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #783
  • Edited 2:37am Sep 25, 2018 1:23am | Edited 2:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 28 KB


i am out now and will wait unsure where it might go
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #784
  • Sep 25, 2018 3:39am Sep 25, 2018 3:39am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} I'm waiting on Fed rate hike to trade USDTRY long. I don't really believe that the priest is going t get released since I think it will undermine Erdogan's ego. Any thoughts?
Exactly. Politicans of Erdogans type care too much about political influence and looking good to make such move, it most likely wont happen. If anything you just got a cheap oportunity to buy USDTRY at discount as market overreacted to non-news.
  • #785
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:03am Sep 25, 2018 4:03am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Exactly. Politicans of Erdogans type care too much about political influence and looking good to make such move, it most likely wont happen. If anything you just got a cheap oportunity to buy USDTRY at discount as market overreacted to non-news.
Yeah. Trading that with any kneejerk reaction to the rate hike coming this week. Overleverage here we come xD

But joking aside, I think USDTRY is going to be silent until the USD news arrive. FOMC members are becoming more and more hawkish. T-yields improving... although we won't see the definitive USD strength until rates rise to 3.30% imo. The only wildcard is President Trump but the fed will maintain its independence until PotUS becomes a dictator, which I highly doubt.

Just waiting for a good breakout entry and I'm going to orgasm till I reach heaven
  • #786
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:20am Sep 25, 2018 4:20am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} I'm waiting on Fed rate hike to trade USDTRY long. I don't really believe that the priest is going t get released since I think it will undermine Erdogan's ego. Any thoughts?
He can be released this time..his next regular trial day is 12 Oct..but, even release, positive effect in currency will be limited..heavy damage is already done to the economy in last 4 months with wrong CB policies and tense diplomatic relations...I dont expect break down of 6.00..but, even that happen, it will be temporary..UsdTry is bullish fundamentally..any good news is an opportunity to buy...
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #787
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:29am Sep 25, 2018 4:29am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} Yeah. Trading that with any kneejerk reaction to the rate hike coming this week. Overleverage here we come xD But joking aside, I think USDTRY is going to be silent until the USD news arrive. FOMC members are becoming more and more hawkish. T-yields improving... although we won't see the definitive USD strength until rates rise to 3.30% imo. The only wildcard is President Trump but the fed will maintain its independence until PotUS becomes a dictator, which I highly doubt. Just waiting for a good breakout entry and I'm going to orgasm till...
USDTRY is fundamentally and technically bullish..but i dont expect any special big move from FOMC (but, Try pairs already moving over 1000 pips recently)..actually, rate hike from FOMC in Sep and Dec is already priced in..my humble forecast is EURUSD bullishness continue after FOMC, so USD Index bearishness continue also..now, markets has started in pricing ECB rate hikes in 2019..so, overall Dollar weakness in following weeks may provide some relief to UsdTry..but, fundamental economic problems in the currrency is quite a lot, so bullishness will prevail in UsdTry despite possible USD Index weakness..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #788
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:33am Sep 25, 2018 4:33am
Quoting Aussi
President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy” now this is interesting
USDMXN

That's good..i was long already from last night at 18.97..daily candles suggests some more up movement..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdMxn daily 24 sep.jpg Size: 415 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #789
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:22am Sep 25, 2018 5:22am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDTRY is fundamentally and technically bullish..but i dont expect any special big move from FOMC (but, Try pairs already moving over 1000 pips recently)..actually, rate hike from FOMC in Sep and Dec is already priced in..my humble forecast is EURUSD bullishness continue after FOMC, so USD Index bearishness continue also..now, markets has started in pricing ECB rate hikes in 2019..so, overall Dollar weakness in following weeks may provide some relief to UsdTry..but, fundamental economic problems in the currrency is quite a lot, so bullishness...
Thank you for your reply. It was very insightful. Although we have different views on the matter. I know about people pricing the rate hike in but what I'm gunning for is the actual hike itself. I believe we can never really truly price a market at a certain point in time.
For example, sure hikes were priced in the past which made the dollar king... but we also saw dollar selling recently... so, people will have to buy back in at some point and that is during the rate hike. Added to that is the dxy failing to breach support level.
In any case, differing philosophies is no problem. In fact, I think we can both agree on the fact that USDTRY is fundamentally bullish.
  • #790
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:33am Sep 25, 2018 5:33am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} Thank you for your reply. It was very insightful. Although we have different views on the matter. I know about people pricing the rate hike in but what I'm gunning for is the actual hike itself. I believe we can never really truly price a market at a certain point in time. For example, sure hikes were priced in the past which made the dollar king... but we also saw dollar selling recently... so, people will have to buy back in at some point and that is during the rate hike. Added to that is the dxy failing to breach support level. In any...
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #791
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:53am Sep 25, 2018 5:53am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} Yeah. Trading that with any kneejerk reaction to the rate hike coming this week. Overleverage here we come xD But joking aside, I think USDTRY is going to be silent until the USD news arrive. FOMC members are becoming more and more hawkish. T-yields improving... although we won't see the definitive USD strength until rates rise to 3.30% imo. The only wildcard is President Trump but the fed will maintain its independence until PotUS becomes a dictator, which I highly doubt. Just waiting for a good breakout entry and I'm going to orgasm till...
As in terms of wildcards....there arent any. FED has always been completely independent from presidents policies and the only president that did try to shift that...it didnt end up well for him.

T yields are however long term biggest destabilizing factor for capital recycling in EM countries such as Turkey, the higher that yield goes the worse it will get, but that is a very long term impact, meaning years.

As for pastor story its completly irrelevant long term, Turkey has major structural problems that will impact currency no matter what goes and happens to that particular political prisoner.
  • #792
  • Sep 25, 2018 7:12am Sep 25, 2018 7:12am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} As in terms of wildcards....there arent any. FED has always been completely independent from presidents policies and the only president that did try to shift that...it didnt end up well for him. T yields are however long term biggest destabilizing factor for capital recycling in EM countries such as Turkey, the higher that yield goes the worse it will get, but that is a very long term impact, meaning years. As for pastor story its completly irrelevant long term, Turkey has major structural problems that will impact currency no matter what...
Yeah. I just mentioned Trump as a wildcard since I don't really know what he'll do lol. And yep, my statement was both long term and short term. Market reacted wildly during the Pastor debacle. Probably also because of the tariffs placed on Turkey. We may never know what the administration will do next. All I can say is that both Erdogan and Trump are pretty unique as far as leaders go
  • #793
  • Sep 25, 2018 7:45am Sep 25, 2018 7:45am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDMXN That's good..i was long already from last night at 18.97..daily candles suggests some more up movement.. {image}
Closed at 19.02..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #794
  • Sep 25, 2018 7:51am Sep 25, 2018 7:51am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} Yeah. I just mentioned Trump as a wildcard since I don't really know what he'll do lol. And yep, my statement was both long term and short term. Market reacted wildly during the Pastor debacle. Probably also because of the tariffs placed on Turkey. We may never know what the administration will do next. All I can say is that both Erdogan and Trump are pretty unique as far as leaders go
Actually, administration is very predictable, the only less predictable element is president itself. The tariffs and economic conflict on Turkey was years into coming, has got nothing to do with pastor whatsoever, it has been layed out by administration. Turkey has strategically positioned itself along one belt one road initiative that is being played by China and in collaboration of few BRICS countries. It is simply for US un-compatible long term play of restructucturing capital recycling out of Petrodollar into the new system that Turkey has aligned with. All countries that joined one belt one road initiative are now under sanctions, every single one of them. And no it has nothing to do with pastor, this in fact if you study it well was laid out by administration years ahead of Trump.
And from that side whats next to come is very predictable because for sure Turkey will not set off that course, which means further escalation is coming. And since Turkey has deep structural problems it really doesnt matter what Erdogan does or says, because it is impossible to stop the liquidation that will hit Turkey in next years, only thing Erdogan can do is use same rethoric as Trump and just keep making things worse- faster. The only difference ofcourse Trump gets away with it, being the president of strongest market in the world....Erdogans Turkey wont.
  • #795
  • Sep 25, 2018 8:07am Sep 25, 2018 8:07am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Actually, administration is very predictable, the only less predictable element is president itself. The tariffs and economic conflict on Turkey was years into coming, has got nothing to do with pastor whatsoever, it has been layed out by administration. Turkey has strategically positioned itself along one belt one road initiative that is being played by China and in collaboration of few BRICS countries. It is simply for US un-compatible long term play of restructucturing capital recycling out of Petrodollar into the new system that Turkey...
Oohhh you mentioned about the One belt one road. Very interesting to see that all the participants are now under a sanction lol. And yeah, the pastor is really just an excuse by the US to escalate tensions with Turkey.

And probably I don't have the mental fortitude to hold Lira trades for long periods of time. That's why the tariff imposed by the US was memorable to me because I just dipped my feet short term and got out when I was happy.

In any case, it's going to take a miracle for the Turkish economy to stabilize... but I'm too chicken to hold it for more than a day
  • #796
  • Sep 25, 2018 8:40am Sep 25, 2018 8:40am
Quoting rescuenava
{quote} Oohhh you mentioned about the One belt one road. Very interesting to see that all the participants are now under a sanction lol. And yeah, the pastor is really just an excuse by the US to escalate tensions with Turkey. And probably I don't have the mental fortitude to hold Lira trades for long periods of time. That's why the tariff imposed by the US was memorable to me because I just dipped my feet short term and got out when I was happy. In any case, it's going to take a miracle for the Turkish economy to stabilize... but I'm too chicken...
Yeh same for me, and it isnt just that, its overnight fees on shorts that you have to pay can quickly ramp up on bigger sized positions, i generally only wait for catalyst and then m15 structural play and out of trade within a day, usually if it pops it does in London / Istanbul opening overlap.
The easiest way would be going trough some dark pool and just putting cash position finding someone who wants to long it, no fees that way and no need to worry about margin...but obviously for little players that isnt an option.

Next step for Turkey is to purchase S 400. This is a very quick shortcut to get some more sanctions from US, has been very efficient over past few years for countries that did it. Obviously its all covert play since the main reason isnt the purchase why sanctions get baked, but it is very easy task for US to find a good source of demonized material to present to world, and justify the sanctions. And you can bet, Erdogan will be buying those soon.
  • #797
  • Edited Sep 26, 2018 12:14am Sep 25, 2018 7:19pm | Edited Sep 26, 2018 12:14am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 21 KB



just having a stab at a buy

boring
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #798
  • Edited 12:46am Sep 26, 2018 12:28am | Edited 12:46am
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY Erdogan is visiting USA today..and he will visit Germany in next days..market has expected some psitive developments from these meetings..and first good news came out..Pompeo said that Brunson may be released within one month..Try got some strenght.. i got some scalp profit today with longs..now holding 3 long position at 6.33, 6.27 and 6.19..total leverage 1/1.5..my bullish bias continue but bears may have control for a while, with better US relations..i will hold my longs but no more new positions in UsdTry for now..
USDTRY

I added one more long position at 6.164..

Note: Erdogan has given a new interview to Reuters..says roughly.."Courts are independent..they will reach a decision abt Brunson in 12 Oct..we will see wht happen..CB is independent in rate decision..I oppose high interest as you know..we will continue to buy gas from Iran (not mentioned oil).."

See how markets react to these words..market will be open soon..nothing new but might be bullish..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #799
  • Sep 26, 2018 12:32am Sep 26, 2018 12:32am
Good luck blackwinter.
I will sit on my hands at present...
R
Ronnie Renko
  • #800
  • Sep 26, 2018 12:43am Sep 26, 2018 12:43am
Quoting Ced74
Good luck blackwinter. I will sit on my hands at present... R
Good luck too you Ced74

See what happen..i expect some up in frankfurt/london open hours..then may drop again in afternoon..3days swap day..my humble guess..see how

Best wishes
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
4 traders viewing now