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Quad Candle System

  • #2,561
  • Sep 21, 2018 10:34pm Sep 21, 2018 10:34pm
Thank you for the charts OAPDave. It seems that the higher the number of period in the MML the price moves into a normal zone, not overbought.
However the price seems to be at an important octave even in that situation. 4/8.
Considering this change in octave periods, we could say that there is enough room on the upside. But I think that if we change octave number on daily we should reassess all timeframes with the same number of periods?
Your charts would show confluence with the CD harmonics that would have enough space to unfold. Also based on thread Masterrmind said that most of the times, AB=CD patterns complete.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,562
  • Sep 22, 2018 8:05am Sep 22, 2018 8:05am
Finished reading the thread for the first time. I think I have found my place as it seems to be an all-inclusive solution. Not only the trading system itself is explained, but the fact that you make traders compare their profitability with bank interest, indices and other similar investments is also a very good way to set standards.

1) My demo account was opened with IC Markets where you also opened the thread account, but I guess the indicators work with any MT4 broker. I like the MT4 indicator that was shown during the thread when it indicated on what currencies the quads are forming to be then manually reviewed. It would speed up the monitoring of all the currency pairs, could you please provide it? It was not included in the archive of the main page. Thank you very much.

If a currency is showing a quad on daily in the -2/8 - 0/8 and another quad on weekly in the 8/8 - 6/8 area - USD/CAD it would be automatically excluded from trading analysis or you'd still consider it?
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,563
  • Sep 22, 2018 8:29am Sep 22, 2018 8:29am
Quoting pipsandkfc
Finished reading the thread for the first time. I think I have found my place as it seems to be an all-inclusive solution. Not only the trading system itself is explained, but the fact that you make traders compare their profitability with bank interest, indices and other similar investments is also a very good way to set standards. 1) My demo account was opened with IC Markets where you also opened the thread account, but I guess the indicators work with any MT4 broker. I like the MT4 indicator that was shown during the thread when it indicated...
Here is a look at 4,8,16,32 and 256 days Octaves
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  • #2,564
  • Sep 22, 2018 8:41am Sep 22, 2018 8:41am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Here is a look at 4,8,16,32 and 256 days Octaves {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

Thank you OAPDave for the charts. I can see a pattern, the lower the number of the octaves it mostly confirms overbought and oversold areas, but in the larger timeframe of octaves, it all looks ok, not overbought and oversold. So ideally it should be that overbought and oversold area in all period octaves match? I understand that this would be an extra confluence point.
To be honest, I'm not considering trading ( now I have only a demo account ) neither USD/CAD nor EUR/USD as I don't feel it's enough confluence, I just like to do an analysis. Even if I find setups that suggest excellent confluence I'd just analyze it for a period and read again the thread then do backtesting. As you and Masterrmind say, there are always new opportunities on the market.
If you could explain how should I take in consideration different octave periods as further confluence I'd greatly appreciate it. It would cover one confusion regarding the trading system. I still have plenty on adding positions, but I guess that's just pure price action knowing that we got the direction right.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,565
  • Sep 22, 2018 8:59am Sep 22, 2018 8:59am
Quoting pipsandkfc
{quote} Thank you OAPDave for the charts. I can see a pattern, the lower the number of the octaves it mostly confirms overbought and oversold areas, but in the larger timeframe of octaves, it all looks ok, not overbought and oversold. So ideally it should be that overbought and oversold area in all period octaves match? I understand that this would be an extra confluence point. To be honest, I'm not considering trading ( now I have only a demo account ) neither USD/CAD nor EUR/USD as I don't feel it's enough confluence, I just like to do an analysis....
Take a look at this 64 day Octave seems to be having a battle with the 4/8th @ 1.3184 at the beginning of Sept so if you thought it was resistance were would you expect to see price on say a 4 8 16 and what price action would you like to see
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  • #2,566
  • Sep 22, 2018 9:08am Sep 22, 2018 9:08am
In the resistance area, the currency was overbought and the price reversed. But now the price is in an oversold area so the 4/8 and -1/8 look like a range.
I think this is kind of the same situation, there is a range on the weekly chart between 6/8 - 8/8 but the quad has been formed. Plus there was another quad in the +1/8 - 8/8 area. So we would have a confluence between the 6/8 on weekly and the -1/8 on daily.

P.S I know you're not trading quads.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,567
  • Sep 22, 2018 9:20am Sep 22, 2018 9:20am
Quoting pipsandkfc
In the resistance area, the currency was overbought and the price reversed. But now the price is in an oversold area so the 4/8 and -1/8 look like a range. I think this is kind of the same situation, there is a range on the weekly chart between 6/8 - 8/8 but the quad has been formed. Plus there was another quad in the +1/8 - 8/8 area. So we would have a confluence between the 6/8 on weekly and the -1/8 on daily. P.S I know you're not trading quads. {image} {image}
Well done you have read and understood the thread well, just remember that the numbers represent bars so its just a fixed count back on any time frame so to me it has to mean something like 256 is as near to trading days in a year or 128 on a 60 min is about a weeks view
  • #2,568
  • Edited 10:22am Sep 22, 2018 9:29am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Well done you have read and understood the thread well, just remember that the numbers represent bars so its just a fixed count back on any time frame so to me it has to mean something like 256 is as near to trading days in a year or 128 on a 60 min is about a weeks view

Thank you for your appreciation. I will review the thread one more time and then will start posting manual backtesting on currencies and post charts with the analysis in the thread. I saw the debate in the thread for the number of the bars and 64 is considered the quarter and 256 the year in daily bars. I also noticed you're using smaller numbers so you can fine tune entries for intraday, but you compare it also with a larger number prior to entering.

I will have in time to understand how to act based on confluence analysis, but for that, I'll need testing I guess.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,569
  • Sep 23, 2018 8:11am Sep 23, 2018 8:11am
Quoting pipsandkfc
Masterrmind if you have time, could you review my analysis on EUR/USD D1? I know it's not a QUAD formed yet but it could be on Monday. Daily 1) On the daily chart, the price shows an almost QUAD in the 8/8- +2/8 area. 2) Fibonacci 100 is a little over +/8 and could provide additional resistance that would allow for a turning point. 3) However, the harmonics CD is ending over the +2/8 area, suggesting prices could go higher 4) Also, the highs in June are higher than the current price and it could be re-tested Weekly 1) On the weekly chart, it shows...
Yes good set of charts and nice to see a TE attached under your signature.

Nice harmonic touch, good work.

Align as much confluence as you can, it may not be possible to have every factor align but try to get as many as you can.

Plenty of things can happen from the setup time to the entry to the stopout or the target and anywhere inbetween.
News events or political impacts or tweets from here or there, its all a possibility.

Keep the risk as low as possible on the 1st entry and add volume only under favorable conditions.
Favorable meaning that your 1st entry is already a minimum 100 pips and looking strong.

As you gain more experience you can be a little more adventurous by adding into trades at lower pip projections.
Allocating some risk to underwater entries where price has pulled against you but all within your self-assigned risk tolerance level.
The risk you allocate per trade and across your account must be reasonable and realistic.

Keep a close watch on when upcoming news events are due out and assess your setup.

Do not be in a hurry to make a rushed entry into the market because as soon as you enter the market you are going to be in there for multiple weeks (consider positive swap but do not allow this one factor to dicate trade entry or not, there are several other more important factors).

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,570
  • Sep 23, 2018 1:39pm Sep 23, 2018 1:39pm
Thank you for the answer. I opened the demo account to start looking at charts also in real time but it'll be a while until I'll give it a go. One more thread reading, then history back testing and posting analysis in the thread. Since repainting of MML can prove a problem, I will also provide a solution on how to easily back test and for free. It'll be done in a few days.
Masterrmind do we have a solution on ranking the confluence methods? I mean is harmonics better than fibonacci? Also how do we rank the method OAPDave suggested with confluence on other MML periods? Is it better than fundamentals? I presume it's all discretionary but I thought it's better to ask.

"Keep the risk as low as possible on the 1st entry and add volume only under favorable conditions.
Favorable meaning that your 1st entry is already a minimum 100 pips and looking strong." - this is the part that I really have no idea on. I know it's discretionary but can you provide some guidance? To be honest I don't know to check if it's looking strong. All I know for sure is to count 100 pips
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,571
  • Sep 24, 2018 9:40am Sep 24, 2018 9:40am
Quoting pipsandkfc
Thank you for the answer. I opened the demo account to start looking at charts also in real time but it'll be a while until I'll give it a go. One more thread reading, then history back testing and posting analysis in the thread. Since repainting of MML can prove a problem, I will also provide a solution on how to easily back test and for free. It'll be done in a few days. Masterrmind do we have a solution on ranking the confluence methods? I mean is harmonics better than fibonacci? Also how do we rank the method OAPDave suggested with confluence...
A very good question but not easily answered in terms of ranking trading factors (gathering confluence) as I call them.

Fibonacci ratios can be used to trade as a standalone method.
Harmonics uses Fibonacci ratios to form expectations of where price is 'likely' to project both as potential targets or as reversal zones.

Therefore Harmonics are more involved than Fibonacci ratios.

If you were to ask me which one I would use to trade pure PA, my answer would be an immediate "Harmonics" answer !

But it all depends on the trade setup and what is involved.

Everything in trading is relative !

Personally, I prefer not to rank them but rather add them to a setup to improve in my view the probability of success.

The greater the confluence the higher the probability and the more likely the trade will be a winner.
NO guarantees though in this business ... always remember that the market will drive price wherever it so desires and it is our job to ride price for as long as we can in a favorable direction.

You should not take the 100 pips I mentioned as literal.

It is meant to say that the trade (position) is a reasonable distance away from entry price.

You could also look at it in terms of the octave gaps.

Notice how on a D1 TF that many octive gaps are 122 pips or 244 pips.

If your setup was from an MML having 122 pips then consider this as a reasonable distance away from entry price (similarly for the 244 octive gap).

There is no set value, you must decide yourself as to what constitutes a reasonable distance.

On a D1 TF personally I would say that if the octive gap is greater than 100 pips then a 50 pip floating profit would be too close to start adding.

Your thinking will change slightly once experience is gained because you will start to think of the actual chart you are trading, what has happened in terms of PA, the S&R levels and what is happening at certain key levels now.

Chart structure needs to be a primary consideration when deciding about adding in more trades to the cycle.
Risk per trade and risk across the account is another key consideration.

All these factors must fit together well.

Discretion builds on the right type of experience.

Whilst there is much information in this thread to take in and understand, the essence of this trading approach is extremely simple.


Find as low a place on the chart as you can to enter LONG and look to get a min 1:1 RR (or more) using 1 to 2 octive gaps as your SL on a D1 TF !
OR
Find as high a place on the chart as you can to enter SHORT and look to get a min 1:1 RR (or more) using 1 to 2 octive gaps as your SL on a D1 TF !


By all means study and learn but do not try to over-complicate what is really meant to be very very simple !

Asking questions as you are doing is a huge step in the right direction so well done.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,572
  • Edited Sep 25, 2018 1:29am Sep 24, 2018 10:40am | Edited Sep 25, 2018 1:29am
Thank you again for the clarifications Masterrmind. One more thread reading is required then I guess it's time to backtest to get a real feeling of how to analyze the trades.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,573
  • Edited 5:08am Sep 26, 2018 4:45am | Edited 5:08am
Currency: USD/CHF - D1. Entry: Long @ 0.96539 ; TP: 0.99651 ; SL: 0.94179
Charts attached. D1+W1+M1 and Daily with Harmonics and Pivots

My analysis:

1) A quad pattern formed in -2/8 - 0/8 area
2) Harmonics movement completed AB=CD but overcame by the price, so it seems like an extension
3) Available supports in the price area: Fibonacci Retracement 50%, S1 Pivot on Monthly Chart. MML -1/8 tested but price managed to close above it, previous price congestion in the area showing a good supply/demand area
4) Candlestick that has closed in the upper shadow area meaning the buyers managed to take control
5) Pair speed analysis: Turtle (ADR < about 60 pips)
6) Fundamentals: not yet too much analysis. One interesting thing: Credit Suisse Economic Expectations ( low impact news ) were out today however they didn't show the forecast numbers. This could be interpreted as a known fact that results will be worse and they were already taken into consideration by the price. The downside is that important US news is about to come.
7) SL < TP . Both are in the weekly and monthly ranges.
8) Price seems to be in a monthly range. However, inside the monthly range, a smaller range has been established. Also on the weekly period, a range is established.

Negative aspects:

1) US news due later. Important ones.
2) I think that the selection of SL and TP is kind of random. The criteria were to give price enough space to move thus a large SL. TP put in an area of supply/demand and larger than SL.

Money Management:

1) I am considering a different approach. I don't have an account amount, but rather a monthly budget of 1000 EUR allocated to trades. That should cover about 2-3 trades a month.
2) Probably an additional entry at around 0.9780 area, above 0/8 and monthly pivot, if price reacts well to it. Honestly, I don't know what that means, so I'll update my considerations if the price gets there. Meantime I'll have to look at price action more, to get an understanding.

Questions:

1) What could I have done to improve my analysis? Is there anything wrong in it?
2) How to react if we have a quad and the same day we got important news?
3) How to set better SL and TP?
4) Any suggestions?

Thank you.

* For charts I'm using JForex as well, from Dukascopy as it seems easier to draw. The MML lines match the ones with the indicator in this thread.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,574
  • Sep 26, 2018 7:35am Sep 26, 2018 7:35am
Quoting pipsandkfc
Currency: USD/CHF - D1. Entry: Long @ 0.96539 ; TP: 0.99651 ; SL: 0.94179 Charts attached. D1+W1+M1 and Daily with Harmonics and Pivots My analysis: 1) A quad pattern formed in -2/8 - 0/8 area 2) Harmonics movement completed AB=CD but overcame by the price, so it seems like an extension 3) Available supports in the price area: Fibonacci Retracement 50%, S1 Pivot on Monthly Chart. MML -1/8 tested but price managed to close above it, previous price congestion in the area showing a good supply/demand area 4) Candlestick that has closed in the upper...
Thanks for sharing and outlining your trade setup.

The point is that you need to be confident in your original setup and the analysis you undertook to reach that decision.

Many things can change once you have entered the tradea nd there will always be some bumps along the way.

Study PA and harmonics and start building up confidence, this will take time but it is a very good trading skill to acquire.

Search for zones of S&R and draw them in manually using lines or rectangles (not automated indicators) ... get a good feel for what typically occurs when price races into these zones.

If the SL is under a solid area of support such as a key swing low and the lot size you applied means that risk per trade is at or below 2% then that's fine.

Great work posting the weekly and monthly charts and knowing where your daily trade entry fits within these TFs.

It appears you are going for a 1 to 1 and thats fine but you might also like to consider a higher RR.
I'm not saying your setup is wrong, I'm just saying you should make sure that a higher RR is used at some stage.

Not all trades will make it to their target zones but at least make sure that price has been into your target area in the past.

Shoot for just shy of the highs in a long entry, lock in profit in a gradual process unless you have good reason not too.

Great work.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,575
  • Sep 27, 2018 7:04am Sep 27, 2018 7:04am
EN

Closed out 2 trades for profit.

Underlying reason was nothing more than to strike a double digit return this month.

myfxbook screenshots will be posted to Post 1 at each month end.

Good trading,

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,576
  • Sep 27, 2018 2:39pm Sep 27, 2018 2:39pm
Quoting Masterrmind
EN Closed out 2 trades for profit. Underlying reason was nothing more than to strike a double digit return this month. myfxbook screenshots will be posted to Post 1 at each month end. Good trading, Masterrmind.............
Awesome job.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,577
  • Edited 5:14am Sep 28, 2018 5:01am | Edited 5:14am
Regarding trade available at: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11517654 , it went over 100 pips in profit. I didn't add any positions as it's not clear of the reactions around 0/8 MML.
I expect the 38.2 Fib to hold to continue up movement. I've moved it to break even.
I am not sure if I'm leaving it enough space to move but if the 38.2 won't hold it should go to 50 or 61.8 and there is no need to be in a trade. I can evaluate it then and decide if I go in again at a better price.

Not sure if what I'm doing is the right thing but since it's a demo I can experiment to see boundaries and what works and not.
Upon a further analysis. My first live trading year will use a 100 EUR stop loss ( I can spread it among as many pips as I wish ), then I'll re-evaluate. This will be the tactics applied to my demo account from now on.
Meanwhile planning to read a book about the harmonics as I feel more knowledge is needed to improve my analysis.
Good luck trading to everyone!
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
  • #2,578
  • Sep 28, 2018 8:47am Sep 28, 2018 8:47am
Quoting pipsandkfc
Regarding trade available at: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11517654 , it went over 100 pips in profit. I didn't add any positions as it's not clear of the reactions around 0/8 MML. I expect the 38.2 Fib to hold to continue up movement. I've moved it to break even. I am not sure if I'm leaving it enough space to move but if the 38.2 won't hold it should go to 50 or 61.8 and there is no need to be in a trade. I can evaluate it then and decide if I go in again at a better price. Not sure if what I'm doing is...
Yes use the demo as a testing ground and getting used to the sorts of things PA can throw at you.

Try to keep in tune with a reliable news feed especially one that covers currency and political information.

Once you are in the trade, learn to manage it based on ongoing economic news.

After plenty of practise many of these key trading attributes will start to fall into place.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,579
  • Sep 28, 2018 9:15am Sep 28, 2018 9:15am
EN - Update

Decided to close out the last active short trade to further add to the current monthly gain and its the end of the trading week as well.

I have also deleted the last 2 pending orders on this pair and will reassess a possible entry again early next week.

GU - Update

1 long entry remains active.

I have just deleted all pending orders on this pair.

The trading account now has only the 1 long trade active on GU.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Next month I will be looking to take several short term cycles whilst some larger cycles unfold.

This might well include getting back into EN after a pullback occurs (if or when it does).

I will be looking for a more aggressive trade entry sequence but will remain within the self-assigned risk parameters I set at the start of the account, namely DD not exceeding 29% at any time.

I look forward to trading in October and with the end of the year fast approaching it is as good a time as any to bend that Equity curve upright!

Good trading,

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #2,580
  • Oct 1, 2018 2:54pm Oct 1, 2018 2:54pm
Trade https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11517654 - temporarily closed at a profit of 180 pips.

Reason for closing: loss of momentum when crashing into the resistance. My next step was to draw the Fibonacci for the swing and evaluate price action at retracements. Should the 38.2 hold we could go to a nice high in a AB=CD movement, Where AB was ~ 180 pips.
Looking at 0.9760 area, mostly.
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
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