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Simple Mean Reversion

  • #341
  • Sep 23, 2018 1:39am Sep 23, 2018 1:39am
thanks for sharing going through it.....
  • #342
  • Edited 7:37am Sep 23, 2018 7:22am | Edited 7:37am
THINK!
PATTERNS!
MARKET MODELS!
TOTAL NUMBER OF VARIATIONS???

CYCLES!
TIME DIVIDERS!

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TIME AND PRICE!
PRICE OVER TIME!
PRICE MOVING OVER TIME! (Not time over price!)
TIME IS THE KEY!
TIME DETERMINES PRICE! (Not the other way)

NUMBER OF MARKET MODELS BASED ON FIXED TIME CYCLES? HOW MANY? 3 !

1. HORIZONTAL RANGE (Many variations)
2. RANGE WITH DIRECTIONAL DRIFT (Many variations)
3. SMOOTH DIRECTIONAL TREND (Many variations)

WHAT ARE THE PERCENTAGES FOR EACH MODEL TYPE?
1 - DOMINATES!
2 - APPEARS FROM TIME TO TIME.
3 - VERY RARE!

WHAT ARE THE MAIN PARAMETERS WHICH DESCRIBE EACH MODEL TYPE? (These parameters never change!)

PAY ATTENTION! The number 3 unlocks the next secret which is based on the number 6 !

Model 1

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Model 2

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Model 3

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  • #343
  • Sep 23, 2018 9:49am Sep 23, 2018 9:49am
Look at the pictures above!
Do you realize, that there is nothing else beyond these 3 models?
Of course, the market is a fractal and there are models from different time frames. There are smaller models inside the bigger models......
But this is all there is!
3 main models!!!
These are the building blocks.
Let that sink in.
  • #344
  • Sep 23, 2018 10:17am Sep 23, 2018 10:17am
Quoting alphaomega
THINK! PATTERNS! MARKET MODELS! TOTAL NUMBER OF VARIATIONS??? CYCLES! TIME DIVIDERS! RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TIME AND PRICE! PRICE OVER TIME! PRICE MOVING OVER TIME! (Not time over price!) TIME IS THE KEY! TIME DETERMINES PRICE! (Not the other way) NUMBER OF MARKET MODELS BASED ON FIXED TIME CYCLES? HOW MANY? 3 ! 1. HORIZONTAL RANGE (Many variations) 2. RANGE WITH DIRECTIONAL DRIFT (Many variations) 3. SMOOTH DIRECTIONAL TREND (Many variations) WHAT ARE THE PERCENTAGES FOR EACH MODEL TYPE? 1 - DOMINATES! 2 - APPEARS FROM TIME TO TIME. 3 - VERY RARE!...
Translation:

"TIME IS EVERYTHING"
"PRICE IS NOT EVERYTHING"
"PRICE IS NOTHING WITHOUT TIME"
"TIMEFRAME IS NOTHING MORE THAN A TEMPLATE TO MEASURE SCALE"
Staying in my lane...
  • #345
  • Sep 23, 2018 11:23am Sep 23, 2018 11:23am
Quoting alphaomega
THINK! PATTERNS! MARKET MODELS! TOTAL NUMBER OF VARIATIONS??? CYCLES! TIME DIVIDERS! RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TIME AND PRICE! PRICE OVER TIME! PRICE MOVING OVER TIME! (Not time over price!) TIME IS THE KEY! TIME DETERMINES PRICE! (Not the other way) NUMBER OF MARKET MODELS BASED ON FIXED TIME CYCLES? HOW MANY? 3 ! 1. HORIZONTAL RANGE (Many variations) 2. RANGE WITH DIRECTIONAL DRIFT (Many variations) 3. SMOOTH DIRECTIONAL TREND (Many variations) WHAT ARE THE PERCENTAGES FOR EACH MODEL TYPE? 1 - DOMINATES! 2 - APPEARS FROM TIME TO TIME. 3 - VERY RARE!...
What you have shared here is the foundation of my automation. Across the 3 models, there is a signature that makes room for "Universal Entry setup" that could work under all market conditions covering all trading styles (scalping, day,swing,position, bounce, breakout, follow, reverse, pullback etc etc ).... requiring just a little bit of proactive creativity to manually manipulate the "SCALE".

Hint:

  1. Markets are Universal and Neutral - PipEasy
  2. Universal Time Action Strategy - VeeFX
  3. Price is a variable 100% of the time
  4. Price can be manipulated 100% of the time via spreads and slippage
  5. Time can/is also manipulated.... eliminate GMT, DST and offset crap from your strategy and you finally have "Time as a Constant" to anchor in space to base your Universal entries from.
  6. Eliminate as many variabilities from the strategy and rely only on constants that can be managed via parameter setting
  7. Eliminate history. You don't need it!
  8. Eliminate backtesting. It cannot be done


- Doable but certainly not easy. Works most of the time but requires time consuming and tiring active portfolio management (even with automation). IT's not something I had hoped for when I embarked on my journey towards automation
- Works awesome when things are aligned and going your way with no cap to upward limitation. let the equity explosion happen and take it as far as you can
- Works not to well at some times that I am unable to figure out the reasons.... perhaps at times of algo manipulation by big boys
- Works only with 28 pairs or all individual AUD, NZD, EUR, JPY, GBP etc pair selections
- fails with just one pair or random selection
- works when pairs are matched with active sessions
- works with active exposure management.... reduce positions during session lunch time, in-between sessions etc, add when volatility picks up
- requires many open positions for week to end in net positive.... my optimized model reveals the approx number of trades required to end the week with net positive pips (if market dislocations that I am unable to capture in real time does not happen)
- it performs better and more superior performance with account growth and with larger account size (as I requires trade small and often). This model is ideal to be run as a hedge fund lol
- round the clock rinse repeat.... make me work round the clock as well :-(

Edit: I just made some edits

Staying in my lane...
  • #346
  • Sep 23, 2018 12:25pm Sep 23, 2018 12:25pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Translation: "TIME IS EVERYTHING" "PRICE IS NOT EVERYTHING" "PRICE IS NOTHING WITHOUT TIME" "TIMEFRAME IS NOTHING MORE THAN A TEMPLATE TO MEASURE SCALE"
A bit more on my philosophy about "Time is everything". As CP rightfully said here, Time has no effect on price movements in a pure abstract form i.e Time is not the causation of price movement but Time is definitely a determining factor of volatility which will ultimately move price. This is especially true in spot fx when session open/close, scheduled economic news releases, etc can be trapped towards profit-taking episodes. Time in regards to entries is not important (and completely ignored), Time becomes the "crucialpoint" (he he) for my volatility induced exits. I take all my universal entries as long as I have free margin (with the necessary diversification controls in place.... as and when signals are generated. The juice gets squeezed when the exits are triggered based on my manipulation of scale and pair selection matching process against time (as a constant) within each session.

Time is also a crucial point when it comes to your trading objectives and goal setting (i.e. investment horizon) imo. Monthly goal setting requires far more trading capital to open more positions. Weekly requires less, daily even less.... hence "Time is Everything"..... "Timing is everything" applies to just about anything in life.... even to a cheetah catching his prey and to all aspects of similarities we find in mother nature.

Peace
Staying in my lane...
  • #347
  • Sep 24, 2018 4:44am Sep 24, 2018 4:44am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Translation: "TIME IS EVERYTHING"
TIME/SPACE is everything.

Space and time as two inseparable notions that influence one another.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #348
  • Sep 24, 2018 5:18am Sep 24, 2018 5:18am
Generalities have no effect on price movements

Generalities are not the causation of price movement

Generalities do not explain traders which scaling to use

Generalities do not explain traders when to enter

Generalities do not explain traders when to exit

Generalities do not explain traders where to place your Stop Loss
  • #349
  • Sep 24, 2018 6:11am Sep 24, 2018 6:11am
Quoting alphaomega
Model 2 {image} Model 3 {image}
model 3 is a variation of model 2? i just see trends
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #350
  • Sep 24, 2018 8:39am Sep 24, 2018 8:39am
Quoting parisboy
Generalities have no effect on price movements Generalities are not the causation of price movement Generalities do not explain traders which scaling to use Generalities do not explain traders when to enter Generalities do not explain traders when to exit Generalities do not explain traders where to place your Stop Loss
Yes ,
and unfortunately that's very bitter
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #351
  • Sep 24, 2018 8:46am Sep 24, 2018 8:46am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} TIME/SPACE is everything. Space and time as two inseparable notions that influence one another.
hi limprobable
I have seen this in other places,
Would you like to explain the subject with an example?

be healthy and wealthy
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #352
  • Sep 24, 2018 11:47am Sep 24, 2018 11:47am
I saw model 3 inside of model 1 and model 1 inside of model 2....

Is there anything special ?
  • #353
  • Edited Sep 25, 2018 4:15am Sep 24, 2018 1:15pm | Edited Sep 25, 2018 4:15am
Quoting simjo
I saw model 3 inside of model 1 and model 1 inside of model 2.... Is there anything special ?
Please note that these models are based on one cycle (for example, one day). Simply put, for every cycle (a day) there would be three possible outcomes described by the three models above.
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #354
  • Sep 24, 2018 4:45pm Sep 24, 2018 4:45pm
let me spill some beans about the markets;

trading the markets is like having sex with a woman.

there are times when sex will be great; and times when it will be horrible.

eventhough the man (you in this case) can be ready for sex anytime; the woman (the market) is not. You need to know when she is ready and when she wants it
  • #355
  • Sep 24, 2018 4:48pm Sep 24, 2018 4:48pm
Quoting alphadude
let me spill some beans about the markets; trading the markets is like having sex with a woman. there are times when sex will be great; and times when it will be horrible. eventhough the man (you in this case) can be ready for sex anytime; the woman (the market) is not. You not to know when she is ready and when she wants it
"irony on" when you pay the fee with the right woman, you know she is ready and want it . "irony off"
  • #356
  • Sep 24, 2018 4:50pm Sep 24, 2018 4:50pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} "irony on" when you pay the fee with the right woman, you know she is ready and want it . "irony off"
there are some pairs who behave like that; such as USDTRY or USDMXN. You can enjoy the ride; until you are ripped off
  • #357
  • Sep 24, 2018 5:04pm Sep 24, 2018 5:04pm
Quoting simjo
I saw model 3 inside of model 1 and model 1 inside of model 2.... Is there anything special ?
Pick any setup and you will always find some other setup in it. That is how patterns are formed :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #358
  • Sep 24, 2018 5:09pm Sep 24, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} there are some pairs who behave like that; such as USDTRY or USDMXN. You can enjoy the ride; until you are ripped off
The key is to know where to go to pick your "pleasure"...and if you don't, there is always an orgy of 28 waiting for us.
Staying in my lane...
  • #359
  • Sep 24, 2018 8:21pm Sep 24, 2018 8:21pm
Quoting shahed58
{quote} hi limprobable I have seen this in other places, Would you like to explain the subject with an example? be healthy and wealthy
"spacetime" is a term used to include the time to our 3 dimensional perception as the 4th dimension. therefore, space and time are just two sides of the same coin and they co-exist.
As Above, So Below
  • #360
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:11am Sep 25, 2018 4:11am
M5
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