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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #43,241
  • Sep 21, 2018 10:50am Sep 21, 2018 10:50am
Update: Price made it to structure = Break Even +5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-18 (233 Tick).png Size: 80 KB
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,242
  • Sep 21, 2018 10:50am Sep 21, 2018 10:50am
1 of 3 failed, -11
took a short after ABCD completion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-18 (144 Tick) 2018_09_21 (5_48_18 PM).png Size: 50 KB
  • #43,243
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:03am Sep 21, 2018 11:03am
Quoting MarkStan
1 of 3 failed, -11 took a short after ABCD completion {image}
Nice ABCD pattern. In my view...a D completion of the ABCD pattern that follows structure analysis on the larger order flow has a better probability in a strong trend.

The bulls have been strong the last few days. Just be careful and be aware of where the big money is going... like the 1597 <--- more information in regards to situational awareness. However, I am no expert and am learning as well. Just my opinion.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,244
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:10am Sep 21, 2018 11:10am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} Nice ABCD pattern. In my view...a D completion of the ABCD pattern that follows structure analysis on the larger order flow has a better probability in a strong trend. The bulls have been strong the last few days. Just be careful and be aware of where the big money is going... like the 1597 <--- more information in regards to situational awareness. However, I am no expert and am learning as well. Just my opinion.
yee my guts told me the same, but i tried to focus on the short term orderflow only and not mixing up
  • #43,245
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:16am Sep 21, 2018 11:16am
maybe i should stay away from trading for a while. now only 2 trades left until i can't effort the margin anymore.
probably this situation prevents me from seeing clearly and making a solid analysis
  • #43,246
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:18am Sep 21, 2018 11:18am
Quoting MarkStan
maybe i should stay away from trading for a while. now only 2 trades left until i can't effort the margin anymore. probably this situation prevents me from seeing clearly and making a solid analysis
Are you practicing with real money?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,247
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:21am Sep 21, 2018 11:21am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} Are you practicing with real money?
not sure what you mean with practicing.
i was a couple of months on demos and everything seemed fine.
i knew trading trading with real money is a game changer anyway, so for what staying endless on
demo? i learned my lesson now, but i dont think you can "practice" real money psychology except with real money
  • #43,248
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:29am Sep 21, 2018 11:29am
Quoting MarkStan
{quote} not sure what you mean with practicing. i was a couple of months on demos and everything seemed fine. i knew trading trading with real money is a game changer anyway, so for what staying endless on demo? i learned my lesson now, but i dont think you can "practice" real money psychology except with real money

I agree with you to a point. Yes, trading an account with real money can get a person comfortable with pulling the trigger. I have also traded with real money. However, I traded money that I didn't need to rely on. I treated it like a tuition fee. However, I did the whole lagging indicator thing. And then hearing about price action and trying to find out as much as I could. I stumbled about this thread after reading a book from Scott Carney. Now, I am demo trading. Not because I am emotional about real money. But because I just don't have the funds for the YM at the moment, but I want to sharpen my skills more in a mechanical way, before I start trading with real cash again.

Nevertheless... MarkStan... you have the right idea and I believe you will be a great trader!
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,249
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:38am Sep 21, 2018 11:38am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I agree with you to a point. Yes, trading an account with real money can get a person comfortable with pulling the trigger. I have also traded with real money. However, I traded money that I didn't need to rely on. I treated it like a tuition fee. However, I did the whole lagging indicator thing. And then hearing about price action and trying to find out as much as I could. I stumbled about this thread after reading a book from Scott Carney. Now, I am demo trading. Not because I am emotional about real money. But because I just don't have...
Thank you Pair!

That's definitely the better situation if you not rely on the invested money. Can't say the same for me. But the bucks i've lost will not kill me, it's just painful. Anyway i learned a lot about my psyche, and i really could improve my behaviour, and it's something nobody can take away from me. It was just in the end making some wrong decisions or whatever, i don't know.

Let's see if there's a way out of this dilemma
  • #43,250
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:48am Sep 21, 2018 11:48am
Getting kind of late. It is not Saturday morning 12:46 a.m.

I get to sleep in tomorrow.. Yay!

Here is an ABCD on the 233t where D is completing in the overall direction of the larger order flow in my view. If I fail.... well... it is what it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-18 (233 Tick).png Size: 61 KB
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,251
  • Sep 21, 2018 1:28pm Sep 21, 2018 1:28pm
Got taken out for +5 on 2 contracts. I noticed this turning into a 3 drives pattern on the 233t.. the over all order flow is still in favor of the bulls on the larger order flow in my view. Thus I entered long again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-18 (233 Tick).png Size: 64 KB
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #43,252
  • Sep 21, 2018 2:22pm Sep 21, 2018 2:22pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} try taking the same trade simultaneously live and with a demo account. Use absolutely strict rules on the demo account, absolutely no exceptions. Compare results after 6 months. You may find your rule breaking tendencies outperform your rule keeping system, or not. But after 6 months of never breaking a rule, you’ll have a good comparison statistically.
But I don't want to keep breaking rules on my live account.
I don't think my bad habit of breaking rules outperforms the "following rules strategy", I'm not that good
  • #43,253
  • Sep 21, 2018 2:32pm Sep 21, 2018 2:32pm
Quoting Nikster
Here is what I mean, stopped out to see target got reached. I was planning to trail it once the 61.8 was reached because it also was a good setup for a C-trade in line with the OF{image}
Maybe consider dropping the +2 when going to BE, especially when trading such small swings.
In this case, it was the BE+2 that took you out if I'm correct.
Had it been BE+1, you would still be in
  • #43,254
  • Sep 21, 2018 2:45pm Sep 21, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Maybe consider dropping the +2 when going to BE, especially when trading such small swings. In this case, it was the BE+2 that took you out if I'm correct. Had it been BE+1, you would still be in
you're right and the other problem was that I didn't enter at the completion but 2 points lower. I will place next time BE+1 instead of +2 when the swing is that small.
  • #43,255
  • Edited 4:06pm Sep 21, 2018 3:35pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting MarkStan
1 of 3 failed, -11 took a short after ABCD completion {image}
Hey MarkStan.
My opinion is that ABCD was in a correction of the large swing down.
The large swing down broke structure to the downside and made a weak NSL.
A deep correction of the swing was expected.
Your ABCD only corrected to the 50%, so there was a chance that the correction would not stop there.

Although it is not wrong to put your SL a few points above the 1:1 completion, your stop is more vulnerable there.
I think using Mr. Pip rules, your stop had to be above the large swing 26790 (EDIT: sorry was looking at US30 CFD. For YM it is somewhere above 26820).
But of course that was too far away and you couldn't afford that.

If you can only afford 11 point stops, maybe you should trade a smaller timeframe AND/OR wait for a trade that provides a deep ABCD correction into the 78.6% area, with strong structure to the left (if your going to short then preferably structure where there was strong selling before, if your going to buy then structure where there was strong buying before).
That would provide you the highest probability of success with a small stop (in my opinion).
But you'll have to be patient enough to wait for the perfect setup

Good luck
PS I also took the same trade, but I put my stop above the large swing at 26795 (YM 26820). But price never made it down so I got out for a small loss after 4 hours.
  • #43,256
  • Sep 21, 2018 3:38pm Sep 21, 2018 3:38pm
Quoting MarkStan
{quote} yee my guts told me the same, but i tried to focus on the short term orderflow only and not mixing up
To be honest, I am not sure what you mean by trading short term orderflow. What was your main swing for your trading?

The absolute short term ordeflow, was price going up (look at second leg; gets more strength,...), so short would not be right.
The mid term orderflow was for a NSL. However, SL needs to be at the right place.

AS you can see from my chart, I did the same mistake as you did on YM and some others. However, my SL was above my ref. swing.
This trade took me ages and a lot of nerves.
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  • #43,257
  • Sep 21, 2018 3:53pm Sep 21, 2018 3:53pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} To be honest, ...
Glad to see you took the same trade (means I'm starting to make sense. Or you are losing it )
You had the balls to stay in the trade until you were in green.
I bailed out at a small loss after 4 hours, only to see price take a dive a few minutes later

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  • #43,258
  • Sep 21, 2018 4:03pm Sep 21, 2018 4:03pm
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Glad to see you took the same trade (means I'm starting to make sense. Or you are losing it ) You had the balls to stay in the trade until you were in green. I bailed out at a small loss after 4 hours, only to see price take a dive a few minutes later {image}
I was not glad that I took this trade like that and to add other mistakes (should have done something else today), but I tried to do the best of it with my mess. However PA before the last dive was not in my favour and my averaged price did not allow me to protect.


PS: You are making sense, do not worry.
  • #43,259
  • Sep 21, 2018 4:19pm Sep 21, 2018 4:19pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I was not glad that I took this trade like that and to add other mistakes (should have done something else today), but I tried to do the best of it. However PA before the last dive was not in favour and my averaged price did not allow me to protect. PS: You are making sense, do not worry.
I agree it wasn't the best trade.
The swing down was kind of laboured. The correction up was stronger but I only saw the whole swing after my entry.
When price came back down again it became clear after a few hours that it was probably not going to make a 1:1 to the downside very soon.

Have a nice weekend
  • #43,260
  • Sep 21, 2018 11:05pm Sep 21, 2018 11:05pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Shake it off Peter. Back at it tomorrow
Hey Mr Pip. Can You Please Share The NinjaTrader Chart Template That You Use To View The Chat

PLEASE....
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