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Predict: NFP for November

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 6, 2006 8:24pm Oct 6, 2006 8:24pm
2005 Jul: 146K
2005 Aug: 207K
2005 Sep: 169K
2005 Oct: -35K
2005 Nov: 50K
2005 Dec: 215K

2006 Jul: 121K
2006 Aug: 113K
2006 Sep: 128K ->(188K)
2006 Oct: 50K
2006 Nov:
2006 Dec:


Do you think that 50K is rock bottom? Do you think it would drop lower than 50K???

Last year, there was Katrina that devasted the south. so perhaps it was a huge reason for the -35K drop.. But there is no Katrina this year, only housing slowdown. Will that drop employment further?

Im betting that the result will be higher and therefore USD bullish. Perhaps, we might even see am upward revision to this Oct 50K. As someone said, it is election November - very nice to show good face before the election! Umm when is election anyways? before or after Nov 3?
  • #2
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:59pm Oct 6, 2006 10:59pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Do you think that 50K is rock bottom? Do you think it would drop lower than 50K???

Last year, there was Katrina that devasted the south. so perhaps it was a huge reason for the -35K drop.. But there is no Katrina this year, only housing slowdown. Will that drop employment further?
BK,

You're getting closer.

I wrote the following October 2, 2006 elsewhere in FF:

Today I won't explain, but I will state the following: the next number to watch is not housing or PCE, but employment, or rather the lack thereof.

Rising unemployment in this current economic environment ("soft landing") signals recession. And all you economists out there know what that means for interest rates. So sure, NewstraderFX is right stating that the fed remains "data dependent" (as well as politically influenced) but the real question is which data? I submit the focus will shift to unemployment data.

When monitoring fedspeak, watch their mouths move, hear what they say but listen to what remains unsaid. That's what the great magicians always knew - the art of misdirection. The fed wants you to look at housing and pce ("oh me oh my, we're so concerned about inflation" fedspeak) while they'll be monitoring unemployment ("the truth is, we're concerned about a possible recession") during the next several months.

So what we see now is an unexpectedly low NFP, but an upwardly revised NFP ("see? things aren't so bad after all") which reminded me of ADP's faux pas several months ago where they were so widely divergent from the official government release. Government has the advantage of "revising" data at a later date. Point is the government's numbers were incorrect. Add to this, the "acceptable" level of unemployment (acceptable if you're employed).

Conclusion: Rising unemployment signals recession but the government doesn't want you to think that, so with smoke and mirrors it diverts your attention towards matters such as inflation or housing or pce or the world series.

Look for a US interest rate change, probably down, February 2007.....during government's 2nd quarter fiscal year 2007 (which is 1st quarter for most private businesses).

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #3
  • Oct 7, 2006 9:54am Oct 7, 2006 9:54am
Quoting BurgerKing

Im betting that the result will be higher and therefore USD bullish. Perhaps, we might even see am upward revision to this Oct 50K. As someone said, it is election November - very nice to show good face before the election! Umm when is election anyways? before or after Nov 3?
Hey BK,

Great analysis.

Uniform Election Day is November 7th, 2006
  • #4
  • Oct 7, 2006 12:45pm Oct 7, 2006 12:45pm
Hey mate,

I luv to read your post keep it up


turbo


Quoting MoneyMa$ter
BK,

You're getting closer.

I wrote the following October 2, 2006 elsewhere in FF:

Today I won't explain, but I will state the following: the next number to watch is not housing or PCE, but employment, or rather the lack thereof.

Rising unemployment in this current economic environment ("soft landing") signals recession. And all you economists out there know what that means for interest rates. So sure, NewstraderFX is right stating that the fed remains "data dependent" (as well as politically influenced) but the real question is which data? I submit the focus will shift to unemployment data.

When monitoring fedspeak, watch their mouths move, hear what they say but listen to what remains unsaid. That's what the great magicians always knew - the art of misdirection. The fed wants you to look at housing and pce ("oh me oh my, we're so concerned about inflation" fedspeak) while they'll be monitoring unemployment ("the truth is, we're concerned about a possible recession") during the next several months.

So what we see now is an unexpectedly low NFP, but an upwardly revised NFP ("see? things aren't so bad after all") which reminded me of ADP's faux pas several months ago where they were so widely divergent from the official government release. Government has the advantage of "revising" data at a later date. Point is the government's numbers were incorrect. Add to this, the "acceptable" level of unemployment (acceptable if you're employed).

Conclusion: Rising unemployment signals recession but the government doesn't want you to think that, so with smoke and mirrors it diverts your attention towards matters such as inflation or housing or pce or the world series.

Look for a US interest rate change, probably down, February 2007.....during government's 2nd quarter fiscal year 2007 (which is 1st quarter for most private businesses).

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #5
  • Oct 7, 2006 1:02pm Oct 7, 2006 1:02pm
November figure can be finally BIG... my tip is 200k-250k.
  • #6
  • Oct 7, 2006 7:10pm Oct 7, 2006 7:10pm
Bush showed face last Friday at a Fedex office... He did not mention the 50K NFP but mentioned the lowered 4.6% unemployment compared to the 4.7% the previous...

Government is defintiely showing Bullish USD ahead of Election day.. And December is another month of totally USD bull!
  • #7
  • Oct 7, 2006 7:32pm Oct 7, 2006 7:32pm
Quoting BurgerKing

Government is defintiely showing Bullish USD ahead of Election day.. And December is another month of totally USD bull!
What exactly does this mean? And, assuming that it does have meaning, what information do you have to back it up?
  • #8
  • Last Post: Oct 8, 2006 12:15am Oct 8, 2006 12:15am
Quoting BurgerKing
Bush showed face last Friday at a Fedex office... He did not mention the 50K NFP but mentioned the lowered 4.6% unemployment compared to the 4.7% the previous...

Government is defintiely showing Bullish USD ahead of Election day.. And December is another month of totally USD bull!
FLASH BACK
Remember several months back when US CPI indicated inflation (so-called "headline" number) but the government focused on core-CPI (remaining at an acceptable 2%). The point was to paint a picture of no inflation so the fedreserve would "pause", just in time for the elections.

PRESENT DAY
So consistently, Bush will not mention the 50k NFP because when compared to the expectation of 120k, the unacceptable implication is rising unemployment. But he will point to reduced unemployment; just ignore the inherent contradiction.

"Politics....the wrist that guides the Invisible Hand."
Anonymous
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