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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #1,361
  • Sep 17, 2018 1:21am Sep 17, 2018 1:21am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The trades look somewhat safe and healthy via the 1 day chart. All portions are in profit and the stops are really just for any sudden reactions. I will cut losses quickly if positions go against me. {image} {image} {image}
All trades taken on Friday continue to profit. I am disappointed in myself as I should have taken the entries today and not sat through the weekend on risk. I believe they call it FOMO
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  • #1,362
  • Sep 17, 2018 1:51am Sep 17, 2018 1:51am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} All trades taken on Friday continue to profit. I am disappointed in myself as I should have taken the entries today and not sat through the weekend on risk. I believe they call it FOMO {image} {image} {image}
USDTRY profit target hit the pair is up 2.1% in the morning lol
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  • #1,363
  • Sep 17, 2018 2:17am Sep 17, 2018 2:17am
Greetings,

i do not want to interrupt your thread in any way, good stuff if you are making profits off of fundamentals and giving out some helpful tips, but saying technicals are getting beaten at all times by fundamentals is certainly not true, already due to transaction requirements / mechanics and restrictions of massive volume.

Whatever technicals you see as not reliable doesnt mean there are no "technical" indications. In the end whatever assets you look at, moves due to liquidity and nothing less. Currencies of course does not offer insight in order books and volume, because its decentralized and the necessary data are kept institutional.

From a perspective of my time in a proprietary firm, the right technicals are actually superior to fundamentals. Liquidity which really liquidates huge transactions is not anyones money as the money of a common retail trader like you and me (In the currency market), but pretty much Institutional retailerīs like Mutual and Pension Funds etc. They certainly follow a certain way of method to get into the markets and out of the markets.

Whatever news event is knocking at the door.... If there is nobody whos buying or selling to the volume of Institutional transactions, the market is just doing pretty much not alot or as seen very often or the opposite of the actual data is happening, at least initially due to shifts / no available liquidity.


Anyway, wont bother that much. Keep on going! Whatever produces returns is a great thing - Some approaches are more efficient, some less, but it doesnt really matter as long it provides a positive financial outcome and satisfaction.


My point was simply to get your statement a little more straight. I respect your opinion, because its yours, but as you are in a public area, people may take false statements as face value due to lack of experience and thats not the point of education.



Cheers and happy trading - Wish you all the best

Asset Vulture
  • #1,364
  • Sep 17, 2018 5:11am Sep 17, 2018 5:11am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} All trades taken on Friday continue to profit. I am disappointed in myself as I should have taken the entries today and not sat through the weekend on risk. I believe they call it FOMO {image} {image} {image}
The ZAR trade is looking promising. If it doesn't hit TP by tomrrow I may close or take part profits and move the stop loss to breakeven.
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  • #1,365
  • Sep 17, 2018 7:12am Sep 17, 2018 7:12am
Quoting Samson85
Short aud/jpy due to trade tensions and Australia banking system in turmoil. WSJ state trump could announce the 200 billion tariffs today also. {image}
the Yen and other safe havens acting poorly...Looks like markets are doubting that Trump will follow through on tariffs.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,366
  • Sep 17, 2018 7:14am Sep 17, 2018 7:14am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} the Yen and other safe havens acting poorly...Looks like markets are doubting that Trump will follow through on tariffs.
He tweeted but there was no impact. Just waiting to get stopped out my short. The WSJ let me down on this one!!!!
  • #1,367
  • Sep 17, 2018 8:03am Sep 17, 2018 8:03am
Funny enough I saw this trend-line from friday but did not take the long because I did not have a catalyst. Now this morning I did not read the preview on Ran and I missed that over the weekend there was positive brexit news in relation to the Irish boarder. I did not want to break my rules as I do not take take trades without a catalyst but I was tempted. This news seems to be watering down the JPY.
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  • #1,368
  • Sep 17, 2018 8:31am Sep 17, 2018 8:31am
Quoting Samson85
Short aud/jpy due to trade tensions and Australia banking system in turmoil. WSJ state trump could announce the 200 billion tariffs today also. {image}
Stopped out on this trade. All trump did was tweet and this did not pressure the aud. The WSJ said that trump would confirm the 200 billion on China well it's not happened. Was only a 40 pip stop as I didn't want to apply too much risk.
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  • #1,369
  • Sep 17, 2018 8:38am Sep 17, 2018 8:38am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The ZAR trade is looking promising. If it doesn't hit TP by tomrrow I may close or take part profits and move the stop loss to breakeven. {image}
Closed out my zar postion in profit. May reneter tomrrow.
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  • #1,370
  • Sep 17, 2018 9:43am Sep 17, 2018 9:43am
Bank trades for the week:

MS trades of the week: sell Chf/Nok at market (circa 8.5500), target 7.9000 and 8.7500 stop, buy Usd/Zar (ref 14.9500), target 15.5000, stop 14.6000
  • #1,371
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:06am Sep 17, 2018 10:06am
Entered usd/zar again. It gives me slight more confidence that Morgan Stanley are also in the trade. Risking half the profits I made from the previous trader for this one.

I may enter usd/TRY again but I am still in usd/mxn
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  • #1,372
  • Sep 17, 2018 1:34pm Sep 17, 2018 1:34pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Stopped out on this trade. All trump did was tweet and this did not pressure the aud. The WSJ said that trump would confirm the 200 billion on China well it's not happened. Was only a 40 pip stop as I didn't want to apply too much risk. {image}
He probably makes a lot of money from his own tweets.
  • #1,373
  • Sep 17, 2018 1:52pm Sep 17, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Fundamentals are the main driver of course but technicals are good for point of entry and exit. Key technical levels may also be the reason for buying and selling at times once the fundamental has played out.
yep, Fundamental and Technical should walk along together.
Because news doesnt always happen, but we know news always whop tehcnical to the ground.
Thats why i think being full time trader is better than just the part time trader.
You gotta follow what is going on, not what was going on.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #1,374
  • Sep 17, 2018 1:56pm Sep 17, 2018 1:56pm
Quoting AssetVulture
Greetings, i do not want to interrupt your thread in any way, good stuff if you are making profits off of fundamentals and giving out some helpful tips, but saying technicals are getting beaten at all times by fundamentals is certainly not true, already due to transaction requirements / mechanics and restrictions of massive volume. Whatever technicals you see as not reliable doesnt mean there are no "technical" indications. In the end whatever assets you look at, moves due to liquidity and nothing less. Currencies of course does not offer insight...
I am not saying technicals do not work but they do not drive markets - Central banks do and this is a fact. I trade sentiment mainly which provides temporary movement/ trends. I also trade breaking news, but ultimately a currencies economy drives the market. Why on earth would you store billions to receive no interest from it lol
  • #1,375
  • Sep 17, 2018 2:17pm Sep 17, 2018 2:17pm
I have gone short Aud jpy as trump is going to do an annoucmemt once the market closes. Basically is will either be 10% or 25% tarrifs on the 200 billion. This was the reason why I went short in the morning but trump always needs to be difficult lol.

With that said I also have my hand ready to buy should he try pull a surprise..
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  • #1,376
  • Sep 17, 2018 4:04pm Sep 17, 2018 4:04pm
I have a short position on Dow.I hope he will say something soon because I'm so tired
  • #1,377
  • Sep 17, 2018 5:55pm Sep 17, 2018 5:55pm
looks like the CAD short in the short term may pan out NAFTA talks has somewhat stalled. No planned talks this week...yet.. and Canadian PM still reluctant to make concessions on dairy.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,378
  • Sep 17, 2018 5:55pm Sep 17, 2018 5:55pm
Quoting Samson85
Entered usd/zar again. It gives me slight more confidence that Morgan Stanley are also in the trade. Risking half the profits I made from the previous trader for this one. I may enter usd/TRY again but I am still in usd/mxn {image}
careful though... Rate decision is coming this Thursday although it is expected to remain the same.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,379
  • Sep 17, 2018 8:35pm Sep 17, 2018 8:35pm
Quoting Samson85
I have gone short Aud jpy as trump is going to do an annoucmemt once the market closes. Basically is will either be 10% or 25% tarrifs on the 200 billion. This was the reason why I went short in the morning but trump always needs to be difficult lol. With that said I also have my hand ready to buy should he try pull a surprise.. {image}
Woke and bagged some profit but quite upset that it didn't tank as much. If only trump had done this earlier in the day then we would have got a 100 pip move easily.
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  • #1,380
  • Sep 17, 2018 9:08pm Sep 17, 2018 9:08pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} careful though... Rate decision is coming this Thursday although it is expected to remain the same.
South Africa are facing a further recession I have been told and politically they are all over the place. I would be very surprised if they were hawkish but with that said I need to review their data but from the top of my head their data does not move the currency due to the economic state.
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