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  • #1,341
  • Sep 14, 2018 9:50am Sep 14, 2018 9:50am
Quoting Samson85
I will be positing trades from TRY, ZAR & MXN, but before I post the trades I need to see that they close out properly because holidng them accross the weekend is risky. These will be swing trades just like how I did with TRY. TRY is in a similar place where I got my 1st entry 3 weeks back. Reason for Trades: TRY - Central bank hike not enough to save Turkey and their president is talking down the Lira as much as possible. ZAR - They are headed to a recession and their politics is a shambles. MXN - General dollar buying vs it as traders have taken...
good work man, im still not that confident in my analysis to hold onto trades atm, im just scalping on the 1 hour. Still using demo, going to see how this works for a month
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  • #1,342
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:08am Sep 14, 2018 11:08am
Trump tweeted to impose 200bil on China. Quick short to almost there.
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  • #1,343
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:37am Sep 14, 2018 11:37am
if people who commented an news or small info, just please would add the source. That would be great.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #1,344
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:47am Sep 14, 2018 11:47am
Quoting voketexpert
if people who commented an news or small info, just please would add the source. That would be great.

All my news comes from Ransquawk
  • #1,345
  • Sep 14, 2018 12:11pm Sep 14, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting Samson85
....
You have restored my belief in fundamentals. But today, EU has challenged that belief.

Weak retail sales and dollar surges. I read a comment here in FF that weak retail sales is bad for exporters like the Euro and Aussy which both seem to have sold off pretty well as of this writing.

Meanwhile, UK is working towards a "workable Brexit solution" that the Labour party intends to vote against.

Dollar up EU down.

Prior to this, analyst predicted EU up on bad retail sales.

This leads me to believe the market has taken the Brexit news as more important than retail sales. This also means they feel no deal Brexit is good for the dollar at this time.

Are you aware of any other fundamental factors that are playing into this EU down move?
  • #1,346
  • Sep 14, 2018 12:30pm Sep 14, 2018 12:30pm
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} You have restored my belief in fundamentals. But today, EU has challenged that belief. Weak retail sales and dollar surges. I read a comment here in FF that weak retail sales is bad for exporters like the Euro and Aussy which both seem to have sold off pretty well as of this writing. Meanwhile, UK is working towards a "workable Brexit solution" that the Labour party intends to vote against. Dollar up EU down. Prior to this, analyst predicted EU up on bad retail sales. This leads me to believe the market has taken the Brexit news as more...

The down move was caused by trumps 200billion tariff tweet.
  • #1,347
  • Sep 14, 2018 12:44pm Sep 14, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...
Thanks for sharing
  • #1,348
  • Edited 3:50pm Sep 14, 2018 12:59pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The down move was caused by trumps 200billion tariff tweet.
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Earliest time i found for the tariff tweets is 9a which is after the initial retail sales sell off between 8:30 and 9a. From this perspective it doesn't look like the tweets were the cause of the initial sell off. In my mind this could be front running tweets but who's to say what i think is accurate.
  • #1,349
  • Sep 14, 2018 1:41pm Sep 14, 2018 1:41pm
I believe fundamentals should be good thing, because it is additional information. But from what I have tried, it first lookle like it works about breakeven, just need to improve bit and I could beat it. But recently I lost big when we know dollar is strong, rates will be hiked, and trump said something like dollar too strong, and eurusd started to rise. I still kept it shorting because Trump does not have right to chagne interest rates,looked logical to short. And still it rised. That made big loss. WHen I win - I win small. But when I loose I loose too big, those wins do not compensate the loss. I do not know how to solve this. I cannot just add tight SL becuase it does not fit the analisis - if the analisis is to short, then the bigger it goies up, the better price to short and make big money.

So this kind of made me remember again trend following. And now I am back to pure trend following and ignoring fundamentals. Reading them, maybe one day I will understand how to use that information to my advantage, as my coach said - to read the news and you will learn overtime. With trend following - if like in that situation - trump said dollar is too storng, ok trend changed, not in daily but in smaller time frames, by just blindly following you are in profit or breakeven looks like. Now trying with H1 trend following on eur usd. It is boring and sucks that you have to lose when trends turn aournd or when price goes sideways, but if overall it would make profit - that would still be good. Just sounds too good to be true. But read in profitunity book, there was example of how poeple sometimes overcomplicate things. And we are teached that money has to be earned hard way. Maybe this thinking is wrong that money has to be earned hard way. I sometime read some articles or lisen to some interviews and some say its simple. Need to try. With fundamentasl what is good - if you understand what is happenning, you can close or open opposite direction right away. With trend following- you will have to loose big part till you see that trend turned around.
  • #1,350
  • Sep 14, 2018 5:08pm Sep 14, 2018 5:08pm
Quoting Samson85
I will be positing trades from TRY, ZAR & MXN, but before I post the trades I need to see that they close out properly because holidng them accross the weekend is risky. These will be swing trades just like how I did with TRY. TRY is in a similar place where I got my 1st entry 3 weeks back. Reason for Trades: TRY - Central bank hike not enough to save Turkey and their president is talking down the Lira as much as possible. ZAR - They are headed to a recession and their politics is a shambles. MXN - General dollar buying vs it as traders have taken...

The trades look somewhat safe and healthy via the 1 day chart. All portions are in profit and the stops are really just for any sudden reactions. I will cut losses quickly if positions go against me.
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  • #1,351
  • Sep 14, 2018 7:23pm Sep 14, 2018 7:23pm
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} {image} Earliest time i found for the tariff tweets is 9a which is after the initial retail sales sell off between 8:30 and 9a. From this perspective it doesn't look like the tweets were the cause of the initial sell off. In my mind this could be front running tweets but who's to say what i think is accurate.
Looking at it structurally - price had been climbing since Monday
It had hit a major resistance level and looked a natural target for traders to sell their longs that they had bought during the week
1.17 being the target for at least one bank- and I am assuming that there was a bit of liquidity for someone at the close as well
  • #1,352
  • Sep 15, 2018 2:58pm Sep 15, 2018 2:58pm
I would also add - Draghi's approach to maintaining a hawkish stance in light of recent poor figures is not good
However, he did re-iterate that the EU is doing well
Have not checked German bonds - but those are my initial thoughts
  • #1,353
  • Sep 15, 2018 4:58pm Sep 15, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Chaos=huge profits if you know how to navigate it
I wonder how many were long at the top
  • #1,354
  • Sep 15, 2018 5:19pm Sep 15, 2018 5:19pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} I wonder how many were long at the top
Buying that high tick stinks. Always good to have a reduced size late in the prior trend.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,355
  • Sep 15, 2018 7:49pm Sep 15, 2018 7:49pm
The reason why the Euro spiked up on Thursday as well as other pairs had little to do with Draaghi but it was in fact due to the USD CPI release which was a miss and pairs spiked higher as soon as 1.30pm. The sentiment did appear the following morning for a bit but then faded out. The further decline was then due to trump tweeting.

Now WSJ HAS just stated that 200 billion dollar tarrifs could be announced as soon as Monday by trump so expect further declines.
  • #1,356
  • Sep 15, 2018 7:52pm Sep 15, 2018 7:52pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Fundamentals move the markets. Technicals move nothing.
Fundamentals are the main driver of course but technicals are good for point of entry and exit. Key technical levels may also be the reason for buying and selling at times once the fundamental has played out.
  • #1,357
  • Sep 15, 2018 8:16pm Sep 15, 2018 8:16pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
I believe fundamentals should be good thing, because it is additional information. But from what I have tried, it first lookle like it works about breakeven, just need to improve bit and I could beat it. But recently I lost big when we know dollar is strong, rates will be hiked, and trump said something like dollar too strong, and eurusd started to rise. I still kept it shorting because Trump does not have right to chagne interest rates,looked logical to short. And still it rised. That made big loss. WHen I win - I win small. But when I loose I...
My advice to you is to watch the videos below as how you have been applying fundamental/Sentiment trades wrong. Yes you can trade the economic calendar but you need to know how to do so. You need to know what data points are going to have large amounts of volatility due the central banks in relation to hikes. CAD and SEK data releases are the most consistent right now in terms of generating large amounts of pips. The rest are average or a mixture

My advice is to please watch the two videos below as this will show how to apply fundamental trades and sentiment trades. Sentiment trades are mainly used for day trading.

Please watch the videos and apply the stratergy. Also please provide feedback once you've watched them.

https://youtu.be/SsQBjHK-SH4

https://youtu.be/80eJbVhxWlI
  • #1,358
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:22pm Sep 16, 2018 4:22pm
Quoting Samson85
The reason why the Euro spiked up on Thursday as well as other pairs had little to do with Draaghi but it was in fact due to the USD CPI release which was a miss and pairs spiked higher as soon as 1.30pm. The sentiment did appear the following morning for a bit but then faded out. The further decline was then due to trump tweeting. Now WSJ HAS just stated that 200 billion dollar tarrifs could be announced as soon as Monday by trump so expect further declines.
I Agree. I've read somewhere that most bank traders use Sell/Buy Limit Orders.... so the little up move on EUR/USD on the Retail sales release just hit those orders and the trump tweet release played out, because it is stronger sentiment.
Right now the dollar is STRONG. Because of tariffs it is safe haven, also the FED is on hiking...

What a great thread! Good job Samson85
  • #1,359
  • Sep 17, 2018 12:21am Sep 17, 2018 12:21am
Short aud/jpy due to trade tensions and Australia banking system in turmoil. WSJ state trump could announce the 200 billion tariffs today also.
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  • #1,360
  • Sep 17, 2018 12:44am Sep 17, 2018 12:44am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} My advice to you is to watch the videos below as how you have been applying fundamental/Sentiment trades wrong. Yes you can trade the economic calendar but you need to know how to do so. You need to know what data points are going to have large amounts of volatility due the central banks in relation to hikes. CAD and SEK data releases are the most consistent right now in terms of generating large amounts of pips. The rest are average or a mixture My advice is to please watch the two videos below as this will show how to apply fundamental...
thank you, will need to watch
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