Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) | Page 35 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)
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Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

  • #681
  • Sep 11, 2018 7:02pm Sep 11, 2018 7:02pm
Dear Aussi and Blackwinter,

Do you think the USD/ZAR and USD/TRY pairs are best to look for longer term sells due to the swaps? and only intraday buys?

There also seems to be a gap on USD/ZAR, so this must be adding confluence towards price trading higher before it breaks further down. I will not be taking this trade, will wait for LO to look for entry then.

Kind Regards,
Tzamo
"Work hard, put in the effort, and follow your dreams..." -Me
  • #682
  • Edited 7:49pm Sep 11, 2018 7:24pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting tzamo
Dear Aussi and Blackwinter, Do you think the USD/ZAR and USD/TRY pairs are best to look for longer term sells due to the swaps? and only intraday buys? There also seems to be a gap on USD/ZAR, so this must be adding confluence towards price trading higher before it breaks further down. I will not be taking this trade, will wait for LO to look for entry then. Kind Regards, Tzamo
Hi Tzamo,

both have good swaps but it looks very dangerous to me shorting those pairs in medium and long term..both currencies are in monthly uptrend now..i prefer intraday selling and buying, i trade if daily&1h&4h charts suggest buy-sell signals..of course, answer also depends on risk appetite of you (leverage), account size, trading habits etc..i have a small account and dont trade for swaps..

waiting LO for trading USDZAR and USDTRY is better actually..i opened my short yesterday (NY session) and holding..usually these pairs see day highs during London open hours..

Best wishes..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #683
  • Sep 11, 2018 8:03pm Sep 11, 2018 8:03pm
Quoting tzamo
Dear Aussi and Blackwinter, Do you think the USD/ZAR and USD/TRY pairs are best to look for longer term sells due to the swaps? and only intraday buys? There also seems to be a gap on USD/ZAR, so this must be adding confluence towards price trading higher before it breaks further down. I will not be taking this trade, will wait for LO to look for entry then. Kind Regards, Tzamo
to hold for swaps you need a great big account ,if you look at charts try/usd as been going up for a long long time it does have falls and i do have a few sells collecting swaps i trade short term sells on this pair and the same on buys

zar/usd is the same it seems to be going up long term so i play this the same as try picking the eyes out of trades >>>> turkey as a real problem south africa also as a big problem so spikes will get common i would think
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #684
  • Sep 11, 2018 8:07pm Sep 11, 2018 8:07pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} yes.. it may broke strongly to one way..hope down first.. i sold some at 6.427, though not a good time for selling.. volumes of last six 15m candles are more or same with those 15m candles in Frankfurt/London open.. somebody either selling a lot or buying a lot..so far, balance continue..
USDTRY

interesting struggle continue between buyers and sellers..recently, UsdTry were going up with very low volume in Asia session..but today volume was extraordinarily high (at least Pepperstone volumes looks so) during Asian opening hours..and price didnt change much after NY close..that looks to me sellers restricted up movement..but couldnt manage to consume buy orders yet..that will be in EU hours probably..see how..maybe those are my wishful thinking since i have a open short position

btw, 15m volumes are decreased to usual low levels in last hour..maybe some up with low volume before FO/LO...
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #685
  • Sep 12, 2018 12:37am Sep 12, 2018 12:37am
USDTRY

"Turkey's Wealth Fund appoints Erdoğan as chairman of new board"

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...w-board-136737
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #686
  • Sep 12, 2018 12:56am Sep 12, 2018 12:56am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} yes.. it may broke strongly to one way..hope down first.. i sold some at 6.427, though not a good time for selling.. volumes of last six 15m candles are more or same with those 15m candles in Frankfurt/London open.. somebody either selling a lot or buying a lot..so far, balance continue..
USDTRY

closed my short -50pips...maybe short again in London open hour at higher prices..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #687
  • Sep 12, 2018 2:35am Sep 12, 2018 2:35am
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY "Turkey's Wealth Fund appoints Erdoğan as chairman of new board" http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...w-board-136737

perhaps he is going to help himself
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #688
  • Sep 12, 2018 3:05am Sep 12, 2018 3:05am
Quoting tzamo
Dear Aussi and Blackwinter, Do you think the USD/ZAR and USD/TRY pairs are best to look for longer term sells due to the swaps? and only intraday buys? There also seems to be a gap on USD/ZAR, so this must be adding confluence towards price trading higher before it breaks further down. I will not be taking this trade, will wait for LO to look for entry then. Kind Regards, Tzamo
Hmm.. Gap closed at 15.15 for USD/ZAR. USD/MXN seems to have broken down instead and trading out of correlation with the 2 other exotics I look at.
It seems all are breaking down now..

Kind Regards,
Tzamo
"Work hard, put in the effort, and follow your dreams..." -Me
  • #689
  • Sep 12, 2018 4:43am Sep 12, 2018 4:43am
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY "Turkey's Wealth Fund appoints Erdoğan as chairman of new board" http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...w-board-136737

I needed a good laugh!
  • #690
  • Sep 12, 2018 10:54am Sep 12, 2018 10:54am
Price movement has been bonkers.
  • #691
  • Edited 10:30pm Sep 12, 2018 10:12pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDZAR & USDTRY Daily and 4h charts look still bearish to me in USDTRY and USDZAR... CB interest rate decision on Thursday for Lira..most likely there will be significant rate hike this time..so, visiting 6.35 / 6.30 is very likely.. UsdZar is below 4h 50MA..also, daily candle looks very bearish..so, i think we will see 15.00 and probably some further down on Wednesday..until daily bullish candle close, it is bearish for me..to go long, it is better to wait daily candle like 28 august daily candle.. {image} {image} {image} {image}
USDTRY

CB interest rate decision today for Lira..market expects around %5 rate hike..so, %5 or more rate hike may lead to significant drop.. %0/%1 may cause up spikes.. %2/%3 rate hike may cause drop first then up surge (or direct up movement).. my humble speculation..be careful guys..this is a long awaited meeting and most likely will cause to huge volatility.. and I guess, volatility in Lira will have an effect to Rand also to some extent..

https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar

USDZAR

Daily and 4h charts look still bearish..ECB, BOE meetings today..also Turkish CB rate decision may affect Rand..uptrend may resume soon..i prefer to wait bullish daily candle close to go long..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #692
  • Sep 13, 2018 1:43am Sep 13, 2018 1:43am
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both tp

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people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #693
  • Sep 13, 2018 2:00am Sep 13, 2018 2:00am
Afternoon to All,
Well Trump made a great deal of noise re the Minister held in in jail,now House Arrest, and imposed Sanctions which created chaos in the usdtry market but now he is no where to be seen..O.K he has many other important items on his agenda but I did think he would follow through with his views...Never mind life goes on.
R
Ronnie Renko
  • #694
  • Sep 13, 2018 2:08am Sep 13, 2018 2:08am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDTRY CB interest rate decision today for Lira..market expects around %5 rate hike..so, %5 or more rate hike may lead to significant drop.. %0/%1 may cause up spikes.. %2/%3 rate hike may cause drop first then up surge (or direct up movement).. my humble speculation..be careful guys..this is a long awaited meeting and most likely will cause to huge volatility.. and I guess, volatility in Lira will have an effect to Rand also to some extent.. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar USDZAR Daily and 4h charts look still bearish..ECB,...
Price Movement this week is NEW for me. I've gambled a couple times, but mostly not played at all. More big news today with GBP and DXY and some tomorrow.

usdZAR
UCT-5 (CST) Listed
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  • #695
  • Sep 13, 2018 4:43am Sep 13, 2018 4:43am
USDTRY

Erdogan talked about interest rate then spike above 6.50..78 minutes later CB interest rate decision will be out..very strange..why he talk now..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #696
  • Sep 13, 2018 5:06am Sep 13, 2018 5:06am
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY Erdogan talked about interest rate then spike above 6.50..78 minutes later CB interest rate decision will be out..very strange..why he talk now..
trying to shoot himself feet
  • #697
  • Sep 13, 2018 5:15am Sep 13, 2018 5:15am
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2 nice takes

i just put another sell we see what happens
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #698
  • Sep 13, 2018 6:04am Sep 13, 2018 6:04am
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY Erdogan talked about interest rate then spike above 6.50..78 minutes later CB interest rate decision will be out..very strange..why he talk now..
USDTRY

Interest rates increased to %24..more than markrt expects..currency drops to 6.01...nice speculation by Erd...

Sidelined now..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #699
  • Sep 13, 2018 6:10am Sep 13, 2018 6:10am
Quoting Aussi
{image} 2 nice takes i just put another sell we see what happens
your orders hit tp
  • #700
  • Edited 11:24am Sep 13, 2018 10:46am | Edited 11:24am
usdZAR bought 14.7887 Nice H4 pinbar. Target: NO FRIGGIN IDEA. We'll seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
usdMXN bought 18.8966 Target: 18.9575 Stopped

edited
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